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The BABS Pro jec t

Uncovering the Truth About Winning at Fantasy Baseball

By Ron Shandler

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Copyright2017,TheShandlerCompany,LLCAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, resold, distributed, transmitted or displayed for any commercial purpose, including incorporating into a website without the prior permission of the publisher, except for brief excerpts used in reviews. You may not create derivative works based upon the product. This product is intended for entertainment purposes only. Neither the author nor publisher assume any liability beyond the purchase price for any reason. The Shandler Company, LLC Port St. Lucie, FL baseball@ronshandler.com ThecompleteworkisalsoavailablewithamembershiptoRonShandler.com.

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CONTENTSIntroduction MyConversationwithYou 5

Chapter1 HowtheStatsareOuttoGetYou 9

Chapter2 HowPsychologyisOuttoGetYou 20

Chapter3 TheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet 31

Chapter4 TheBABSPlayerProfilingSystem 37

Chapter5 AnalyzingthePlayerPool 47

Chapter6 DraftPlanning 52

Chapter7 MarketplaceAnalysis 63

Chapter8 TheDraft 67

Chapter9 BABSinAuctions 74

Chapter10 BABSinSnakeDrafts 82

Chapter11 BABSinKeeperLeagues 86

Chapter12 BABSinLeagueswithAlternativeRules 90

Chapter13 BABSIn-Season 94

Chapter14 Andso… 97

Appendix 99

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WhatEarlyAdoptersareSayingAboutBABS

"Fantastic,thoughtprovokingstuff,evenforagrizzledveteranof31consecutiveRotoseasons.Isuspectaquarterofacenturyfromnowitisthisstuffthatyouwillberememberedandreveredfor.WhatdidEarlWeaverliketosay?It'swhatyoulearnafteryouknowitallthatisimportant.Thatcouldbeyouraptsubtitle."–J.Morgan"Ijustwanttomakeastatementhereofsimplegratitude:yourthoughtsandsystems—theForecaster,andnowBABS—havegivenmeeffective,analyticaltoolsIcanuseinconstructingmyfantasyteams,whichisaformofintellectualplaythatIfindimmenselyfun.Hugelyfun.So,aresoundingthankyou."–B.Crenshaw"BABSshinesatidentifyinglateroundgems.Deepmixedleague,uglykeeperlist,hypedprospectsalreadytaken,IgrabbedNaquin,Duvall,ZachDaviesamongotherslateinthedraftbecauseofBABS.NeverhaveIdonebetterstartingwithsolittle."–D.Willis"IwanttothankyouandBABSforescortingmetoachampionshipthisyear.Thiswasthe27thyearofourverycompetitiveleague.Ihadfinishedtiedforfirsttwiceovertheyearsbuthadneverwontheleagueoutright.I’manumbersguy,whichiswhyIwasturnedontoyouatHQ,butthatmadeithardtogetcomfortablewithBABS.ButthesystemdefinitelyhelpedandIlookforwardtoitscontinueddevelopment."–B.Wentz"Wow.That.Was.Awesome.I'mcompletelysoldonthesystem,therankingprocessandthespreadsheetthathelpsputitalltogether."–D.Morris

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TheBABSProjectIntroduction

MyConversationwithYouME:Hey,welcome.

YOU:HiRon.Iseeyou'vewrittenanotherbook.Oh,thisthing?Yeah,awriter'sgottawrite.

Whatisitthistime?BABS?Mayberry?LIMA?Someotherarcaneacronym?Sortof.Waybackin2016,Iwrote"RonShandler'sOtherBook"inwhichIintroducedtheconceptoftheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet(BABS).IdecidedthatBABSneededamoreformal,permanentplacetolive. So,thisisthesamethingasyour"OtherBook."Notexactly.TheBABSProjectisareviewandexpansionoftheconceptsfirstpresentedthere.ItisamorerobusttreatmentofBABS.She'sbeenbulked–up,fine-tunedandisnowgreatlytoned.

Soundslikeshespentthelastyearatthegym.Asamatteroffact,shedid.TheBABSProjectisthestoryofherjourney.Itistheplacewhereyoucanlearnaboutwhereshecamefrom,howsheworksandhowtogetthemostoutofyourrelationshipwithher.

It'snicethatyou'vegivenyourconceptahumanpersonabutallIreallywantisawaytowinmyfantasyleagues.

There'sthat,too.Butlet'sstartatthebeginning.ForthosenewtoBABS,herearesomeintroductorythoughts.ForthosewhoalreadyknowBABS,areview:Inthenexttwochapters,Iamgoingtopresentyouwithlonglistsoffactsabouthowbadweareatpredictingthefuture.Weprobablyknowandacknowledgethesefactsindividually.We'llnodourheadsandsay,"Yeah,yeah,projectionsarenotgospel.Igetit."Butno,wereallydon'tgetit.Weknowthatbaseballcultivatesaloveaffairwithstatistics.But,thosenumbersworkbestindescribingwhathasalreadyhappened.Usedcorrectly,theydoaterrific

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jobofthat.Butwetakeamassiveleapoffaithinproclaimingouraptitudeassoothsayers.Yes,paststatisticscanbemanipulatedtoprojectfutureperformance,butwithinaverywiderangeofoutcomes.Extraordinarilywide.Theproblemis,forourfantasyleagues,weneedfarmoreprecisionthanwecancurrentlyachieve.Yetwecontinuetogointoeachseasonwithmeticulously-craftedrankingslists,playervaluesandtargets. Areyousayingthatallmydraftprepisawasteoftime?Seriously?It'snotacompletewasteoftime,butweputfartoomucheffortintotheprocessandfartoomuchcredenceintheminutia.Westilllookata30-HRperformance–or50steals,or200strikeouts,etc.etc.–andfixateonthosenumbersasiftheyholdsomereligioussignificance.Wearestillseducedintomakingimportantdecisionsbasedonthewildallureofsmallsamplesizes.Westilltrytoferretoutpatternsinthestats,evenifwhatwe'relookingatismostlynoise.Westilllookatresearchresultsbasedonaggregatedataanddrawfiniteconclusionsaboutindividualplayers.Andrecencybias?Oh,don'tgetmestarted.Ashardasitistocomprehend,thereisoftennotasignificantdifferencebetweena3rdroundplayerandan8throundplayer,orbetweena$19playeranda$9player.AndyetweagonizeoverADPsandengageinauctionbiddingwars.BABSlooksattheprocessofbuildingaviablefantasybaseballrosterthroughanunorthodoxlens.Foroverthreedecades,we'vetakenabottom-upapproachtorosterconstruction,focusingonprojectingplayerperformanceandthenbuildingfromthere.Thisbooktakesatop-downapproach,focusingonthestructureoftherosteritself,andthenfillinginthepieces.Afterall,winningisnotaboutnailingprojections;it'saboutweighingskillversusrisk,andbalancingassetsandliabilities.Itdoesn'tmatterifyouthinkMikeTroutwillhit41HRs,or31,or24.Youmightberight;you'llprobablybewrong.Itmattershowhisoverallprofilefitsintoawell-builtroster.OnDraftDay,successfullyreachingstatisticaltargetsprovidesfalsecomfort;howmanypost-draftstandingsprojectionsevercometrue?Butcreatingasolidfoundationandstructure,andthenbuildingitoutbyarrangingyourassetsandliabilitiesprovidesahigher-levelperspectivethatallowsforbetterrostermanagement.Backinthe1990s,thegreatestadvantageyoucouldhavewaspossessingbetterinformation.Theinternetleveledthatplayingfieldandleftuslookingforothercompetitiveedges.Overthepast20years,we'vegonethroughnumerousiterationsinvolvingstatisticalmodeling,newsimpactanalysisandevengametheory,butthegoalwasalwaystogetbetterplayerprojections.Thisisdifferent.That'swhyyouneedBABS.

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Geez,itsoundslikeyou'retossingoffalltheyearsofresearchyou'vedoneintheBaseballForecasterandonBaseballHQ.com.

No,notatall.TheBaseballForecasterisstillthebibleoffanalyticsandprobablythemostimportantresourceforsettingbaselinesforplayerperformance.BaseballHQ.comstillprovidesthedeepestfantasy-baseball-relevantinformationanywhereandistheonlyonlinesourceofthiscaliberthatis100%baseball,24/7/365.

Niceofyoutopimpyourworkbutyoudidn'treallyanswermyquestion.Look,allthatpriorworkwasbuiltonthefoundationofaccurateskillsassessment.Thatstillapplieshere.Itisstillimportanttobeabletoevaluateperformanceinitscomponentpartsandunderstandhowthatrelatestothesurfacestatsthatweplayourgameswith.Thedifferencehereisthat,oncewe'vedonethatevaluation,I'mtiredofhavingtomaketheleaptoastatisticalprojection.IntheForecaster,wedoallthatevaluationandthenareforcedtocullitdowntoasinglelineofnumbers.I'vealwayshateddoingthat,butweneedthedataforourdraftprepsoIkeeppublishingthosenumbers.However,likeIwriteintheConsumerAdvisoryinthefrontofthebookeachyear,therearefarmoreimportantthingstolookatbeyondthatstatline.SohereIgettosay,"Sorry,I'mnotgoingtodoit."IfyouabsolutelyneedtoknowhowmanybasesBillyHamiltonisgoingtostealsoyoucanplugitintoyourfantasymodel,feelfreetogotoanothersource.Youwon'tfindthatnumberhere.Butifyou'reatleastcuriousabouttryingadifferentway,well,that'swhyyoumustbereadingthisrightnow.

Sorry,butI'mnotgoingtogiveupmystats.SoamIgoingtogetanyuseoutofthisbook?

Youdon'tneedtoabandonyourstatsbutyou'llhavetobewillingtotryrelyingonthemabitless.WithBABS,playersarenotstat-producingmachines;infact,theyarealsoprettyflawedashumanlifeforms.Ratherthanattemptingtofigureoutwhattypeofnumberstheyaregoingtoputup,myfocusisondescribingtheminthemostaccuratenon-statisticalterms,andthenassemblingtheseformlessentitiesintoproductiverosters.

Soundslikeyouaretryingtoreinventhowtowinatfantasybaseball.Thatseemsoverlyambitioustome.

InevershyawayfromachallengewhenIbelievethereisabetterwaytodosomething.AndIdobelievewe'vebeendoingthingswrongforaverylongtime.

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Forthoseofuswho'vealreadyreadyour"OtherBook,"howisTheBABSProjectdifferent?

TheBABSProjectcontainsalloftheconceptualandinstructionalinformationthatappearedinthe"OtherBook,"plusseveralchangesandenhancementstoBABS.AlltheadditionalessaysthatwerepostedonRonShandler.comafterthe"OtherBook"waspublished(suchasapplicationsforauctionleagues,keeperleagues,in-season,etc.)areincludedhereaswell.It'simportanttonotethatTheBABSProjectisintendedtobean"evergreen"referenceresource;mostoftheexamplesandexhibitsarepresentedingeneralterms.Thatmeansthisbookdoesnotincludeanyplayerratings,rankingsorcheatsheetsforthecurrentseason.Allthattime-sensitivedata,forthisyearandallfutureyears,willappearonlineatRonShandler.com.

Okay,howdowestart?Webeginwiththedecision-makingprocess.Howdoyoudecidewhichplayerstodraft?Howdoyoudecidewhatstrategiesandtacticstoemploy?Howdoyoudecidewhentopullthetriggerorpulltheplug?Mostdecisionsinlifecomedowntowhethertotakeactionanddosomething,ortoavoidsomething.Whenwearethinkingaboutdraftingaplayer,ortryinganewstrategy,orcuttinganunderperformer,wearetryingtoconsiderthepotentialbenefitofmakingagooddecisionversusthepotentialpainofmakingabaddecision.Researchhasshownthatpeoplearemoremotivatedtominimizelossesthanmaximizegains;wearefarmorelikelytoactoutoffearofpainthanquestforgain.Solet'sstartbyinflictingsomepain.

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TheBABSProjectChapter1

HowtheStatsareOuttoGetYou"Thisisaverysimplegame.Youthrowtheball,youcatchtheball,youhittheball.Sometimesyouwin,sometimesyoulose,sometimesitrains."NukeLaloosh,BullDurhamThestructureofthegameofbaseballlendsitselftoanalysis.Theresultofeachat-batisanindividualeventthatcanbemeasured.Butthismeasurementisalwaysafterthefact.Wecancounthowmanyhomerunsaplayerhits,butthatisonlyafterhe'shitthem.Theproblemcomeswhenwetrytotakethenextapparentlylogicalstep.Ifaspecificeventchroniclesareal,measurableskillandwecancountitandtrackitstrendsovertime,thencan'twealsopredictit?No,notreally,atleastnotwiththelevelofprecisionnecessarytohavemeaningfulcontroloverbuildingafantasybaseballteam.Buteveryyear,thequestcontinuestocreate,enhanceandfine-tunepredictivemodels.

Again,areyoudissingalltheworkwe'veputintoadvancedbaseballanalysisovertheyears?

No,thereisnothingwrongwithmoreandbetterdata.ThemetricsintheBaseballForecaster,atBaseballHQ.com,now-mainstreamsabermetricgaugeslikeWARandwOBA,advancedgranulardatafromPitchF/X,Statcastandheatmaps–areallvery,veryimportant.Thebetterthatwecandescribetheelementsofperformance,thebetterwecanassessskill.Thenweoftentakethenextstepandtrytousethosemethodstovalidatestatisticaloutput.That'sareasonableexercisetoo.Yes,aplayermighthit40homeruns,butwhenwedeconstructeventsintogranularcomponentssuchascontactrate,exitvelocityandbattedballdistance,wecangetasenseofhow"real"those40HRswere.Wecandeterminewhethertheplayer'sskillsetsupportedthathomerunoutputingeneralterms.Butthenwestarttakingitasteptoofar;wetrytoattachanumbertoit.Weanalyze:"Basedonthecomparableexitvelocityofallotherplayers,heshouldhavehit3moreHRs,allthingsbeingequal."Wedrawtheseconclusionsfromthevariancesbetweenexpectationandreality,basedonassumptionswemakeaboutunderlyingskill.Andweexcusethefallacyoftheexercisebyaddingthefauxqualifier,allthingsbeingequal.

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Buthere'stheproblem:allthingsareneverequal.Youcanneverreplicateoneseason'sperformanceinanotherseason.Conditionsarealwaysdifferent.Sowhilethisisaninterestingexercise,itprovideslittleactionableinformationwhenitcomestosubsequentyears.Tellmethattheindicatorspointtoanincreaseordecreaseinpowerskills,showmetheareasofgrowthorerosion,evengooutonalimbandtellmethataplayerisgoingtofalloffacliff–butdon'ttellmethatNolanArenadoisgoingtohit37HRs.Don’ttellmethatDeeGordonisgoingtosteal45bases.Don'teventellmethatClaytonKershawisgoingtohaveanERAsomewherebetween2.29and2.54.Formorethan30years,we'vebeentoldthatweneedthesenumberstoplaythefantasygame.Weneedasetofprojections,andweneedtoconvertthemintodollarvaluesorrankingpositions.Weneedtobuildbudgetsandrosterplans,andsetstatisticaltargetsbasedonallthisdata.Butnomatterhowexhaustiveajobwedoinassemblingourdraftprepmaterials,thenumbersweusetoplanoutourrostersarealwayswrong.Arenadoneverhitsexactly37HRsandhiseventualoutputmightnotbeanywhereclosetothatnumber.Gordonwillnotstealexactly45bases.AndKershaw'sERA–evenwitharangetoworkwith–isalmostaslikelytoendupsomewhereoutsidethatrangeasinsideit.

Yes,noprojectionisgoingtobeexact.Butcan'tweexpectthattheover-projectionsandunder-projectionsaregoingtoevenoutacrossanentireroster?

No,notatall.Infact,yourleague'swinnersandloserswillmostlikelybedeterminedbyabasicreportcardofoversandunders.Theteamwiththemostorbiggestover-performerswillalwayshavethebestoddsofwinning,regardlessofhowcloseyourprojectionswereoverall.Truestory:Backinthe2015FSTAexpertsleague,myoveralldraftreportcardwasprettydamning.Ihadfiveon-parpicks,nineprofitablepicksand15outrightlosers,includingsixinthefirsteightrounds.Byallrights,thisteamshouldhavebeenadisaster.Butmyninewinnerswerebigwinners,includingthebreakoutyearsofJakeArrieta(9thround),J.D.Martinez(14),MannyMachado(15),XanderBogaerts(16)andDallasKeuchel(19).Ifinishedonedayandtwopointsshortofatitle,eventhoughmyoverallprognosticatingprowesswasnothingtowritehomeabout.Sowereallycan'trelyontheprojectionsgettingustowhereweneedtogo.Yeteveryspringwegobackthroughthesameprocessalloveragain. Well,ofcourse.Whatelsecanwedo?Butisn'tthatthedefinitionofinsanity?Doingthesamethingoverandover,andexpectingadifferentresult?

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Idon'treallyseeitthatway.Iseeitaswe'reusingthebestmethodologythatwehave.Untilsomeonefindsabetterway…

Challengeaccepted.Youwouldn'tknowitfromallthisextremeanalysisgoingon,butbaseballisasimplegame.Evenfantasytendstodigfardeeperintotheminutiathanisnecessary.Hereisarundownofmanyofthelessons,truismsandproclamationswe'vebeenfollowingovertheyears.Theresearchfindingsareallvalid;thecitedauthorsarefromtheBaseballForecasterandothersources(ifnoauthoriscited,it'smyownresearch).Ourapplicationofthesefindingsiswherethingsgoofftherails.Youcan'treallyassimilatehundredsofpiecesofinputandcullitalldowntoasingleprojectedstatlinethathasanyrealvalue.Manyofyoumayhavereadpartsormostofthefollowingbefore,asindividualfacts,atdifferenttimes.Nowit'stimetoreadthemagain,togetherinoneplace,toreachoneinescapableconclusion.TheBaselineWiththetoolscurrentlyavailabletous,themaximumprojectiveaccuracywecanhopetoachieveis70percent.Thisisanumberthatwe'vebeenthrowingaroundforalong,longtime.Butwhatthatmeansis,thebestwecanhopetobeis30percentwrong.Thirtypercentisalot!ItmeansbeingoffbynineHRsfora30-HRhitter,60strikeoutsfora200-Kpitcheror12savesfora40-savecloser.That'sthebestlevelofwrongnesswecanreasonablyexpecttoachieve.Andfewofuswilleverachieve"best."

Seriously?Isthistrue?

Eh,Idon'tknow.That'sthenumberwe'vebeenusing,andfrankly,I'mnotsurehowtheyarrivedat70.It'spossibletherecouldbeabettersystemoutthere–onethatexceeds70percent–butIdon'tknowthatyou'dbeabletoproveit. Why?Becauseoneseasonrepresentsonlyasingledatapointforanalysis,andthatissimplynotenough.Everyyear,wegainnewknowledgethatcompelsustoimproveandfine-tuneourforecastingmodels.Amodelweusedin2012mightbecompletelyoverhauledby2015.However,that2012modelmighthavebeenmoreaccurateoverafiveor10-yearperiod.Wenevergiveourselvesachancetofindout.

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What'smore,giventhatthestatisticallandscapeisalwayschanging,we'relikelynevergoingtohavedatathat'sstableenoughtodeemanymodeloptimalanyway.Ifwemadeadjustmentstoa2015modeltoaccommodatetheupcoming2016season,oddsareitwouldbeacompletefailuregiventheoffensivesurgethatyear.Wherewouldwegofromthere?

Maybeyoucan'tevaluateanentireseasonofprojectionsonamacrobasis,butwhataboutindividualplayers?That'sallthatmattersanyway.

Sure,wecantry.Thereareoverallskillsmetricsthatareconsideredgoodevaluatorsoftalent,likeonbase-plusslugging(OPS).Butlet'ssaythatIprojectaplayertohaveanOPSof.840andheendsupwithanOPSof.840. Um,thatwouldbegreat!Except,this: HR SB BA OBP Slg OPSDexterFowler 13 13 .276 .393 .447 .840EvanLongoria 36 0 .273 .318 .522 .840IfIprojectedLongorianumbersandheproducedlikeFowler,I'dhardlycallthatasuccessfulprojection.ButOPSthinksso.Baseballanalystsusevariousstatisticalprocessestocomparetheaccuracyofonesetofmetricstoanother.You'llseethesemethodsusedtomeasuretheaccuracyofplayerprojectionstoo.Therearefrequentstudiesthatinvolveagroupofforecasters,oftencomparedtoacontrolgroup–likeasimpleage-adjusted,weightedthree-yearaverage(theMarcelMethod)–andtoeachother.Usingtheresultsofthesestudiestodeterminethebestsystemhaslittlevalue.Thetestgroupstypicallycoverhundreds,orthousands,ofplayers.Thevariancebetweenanyonesystemandanotherusuallyamountstopercentagepointsovertheentirestudygroup.It'snotsomethingthat'sgoingtoprovideanybenefitforatinysampleofa23playersonafantasyroster.Thereisnowaythatyoucancoveryourriskofvolatilityoverarostersizeofjust23players.ThisisapointIamgoingtocomebacktoseveraltimes.Aleadingwebsiteoncepublishedacomparativeanalysisofseveralforecastingsystems,usingthestatisticalmeasuresofcorrelationcoefficient,meanerrorandrootmeansquarederror(don'tworry,you'renotgoingtobetestedonthis).Theirresults:

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Mean CorrelErrorRMSESystemA .690 .067 .084SystemB .694.066.084SystemC .711.064.085SystemD .692.067.085SystemE .683.068.086SystemF .715.064.081SystemG .672.071.091Forwhatit'sworth,SystemCwasdeemedmostaccurate,thewinner,theprognosticationchampion!Butthereisnowayforyoutoleveragethatminutevarianceinaccuracyoverjust23players,or40,orevenseveralfantasyrosters'worth.Soyoucanpickalmostanysystemandhavejustasgoodofachanceofwinningasanyother.StatisticalVolatilityAccordingtotheresearchofPatrickDavittofBaseballHQ.com,normalproductionvolatilityvarieswidelyoveranyparticular150-gamespan.A.300careerhittercanhitanywherefrom.250to.350,a40-HRhitterfrom30-50,anda3.70/1.15pitcherfrom2.60/0.95to6.00/1.55.Alloftheserepresentnormalranges.Soifabatterhits31-.250oneyear,36-.280thenextyearand40-.310thethirdyear,youdon'tknowwhetherthatisgrowthornormalvolatility.Infact,thelow-endand/orhigh-endperformancescouldbeisolatedoutliers.Butnearlyallanalystswillcallitgrowth.Theirprojectionforyear#4willeithercontinuethisperceivedtrendorshowsomeregression.Andanyoneofthemcouldberight.Orwrong.ItactuallywouldbealoteasierifeveryplayerperformedlikeChrisDavis:Year HR BA OBP Slg R$2012 33 .270 .326 .501 $182013 53 .286 .370 .634 $362014 26 .196 .300 .404 $82015 47 .262 .361 .562 $262016 38 .221 .332 .459 $12IloveChris.Hedoesn'thidehisvolatility.It'sall-clothes-off,outthereintheBaltimoresun.Hetrumpetsthefactthatthere'snowaytopinhimdown.Ishea.220hitterora.270hitter?Canweexpect30HRsor50HRs?Butwhilethisdatasetisimpossibletoprojectintonextseason,it'snearlyconsistentwithinanormalrange(2014mightbeaslightoutlier).Youprobablycouldn’tconvincemanypeople,butthisisprettymuchthesameplayereveryyear. I'mstartingtopullmyhairout.Completelyunderstandable.Butthere'smore.

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Researchhasshownthat150games,oraboutthelengthofasinglebaseballseason,isnotenoughofasamplesizetobeareliableindicatorofskillforsomestatistics.Forinstance,astatlikebattingaveragedoesn'tstabilizeuntilabout910AB,accordingtoRussellCarleton.Sowedefinitelycan'tdrawconclusionsafteroneseason.Youcan'tlookatabatterwhohits.230oneyearand.270thenextandcallthat"growth."Whatyou'dmorelikelycallthatisa.250hitter.MyfriendChris?He'syourbasic.240shitter,eventhoughhe'sneveractuallyhadabattingaverageinthe.240s.Butwhatdoes.240meananyway?Or.300?Or.250or.200?Thelinewedrawinskillsbenchmarksisincrediblygrey.We'llchasea.300hitterasbeingsignificantlybetterthana.250hitter,however,over550AB,thedifferenceisfewerthan5hitspermonth.Thedifferencebetweena.272averageanda.249average–stillperceptivelydifferent–istwohitspermonth,oronehiteveryotherweek.We'lloptforapitcherwitha3.95ERA,passingoveronewitha4.05ERA.Butwhat'stherealdifference?Apitcherwhoallows5runsin21/3inningswillseeadifferentERAimpactthanonewhoallows9runsin3innings,eventhough,forallintentsandpurposes,bothgotrocked.Thatcouldbeyour0.10varianceinERArightthere.Thelinewedrawbetweensuccessandfailureisalsoincrediblygrey.AbatterwhoseHRoutputdropsmighthavehadaconcurrentincreaseindoublesandtriples.ApitcherwhoseERAspikesmayhaveseennodegradationinskillsbutwasbackedbyapoordefenseandabullpenthatallowedmoreinheritedrunnerstoscore.AspeedstermayhaveseenhisSBtotalplummetonlybecausehewastradedtoateamthatdidn’trun.Aclosermayhavebeenaseffectiveaseverbutlostthe9thinningroleasaresultofatradeoramanagerwithaquickhook. It'slikenothingisrealanymore.Oh,it'sreal.Theissueishowyouinterprettheserealities.I'mtryingtomakeacasethatourtrusted,comfortablestatisticsarenottheplacetofind"real."Thisbecomesmoreproblematicwhenwetrytoprojectthefuture.Garbagein,garbageout.Andhonestly,beyondthevolatilityinthenumbers,thereistoomuchuncertaintyformanyplayerstopindownastatlineanyway.Howdoyouhandleplayerscomingoffofinjury?Canyoureasonablypro-rateamid-seasoncall-up'sstatlinetoafullseason?Islastyear'spitchingbreakoutstarreallynowinthesameclassasthegame'selite?

Idon’tknow.Youdon'tknow.Nobodyknows.Butsomeoneisgoingtohavetoslapabunchofnumbersontheseguysinorderforyoutodraft,right?

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Um,right.Well,won’tthey?Theywill,butyoudon'thavetobuyintoanyofit.RotisserieEarnings/FantasyRankingsVolatilityTryingtofindsomestabilitywithinRotisseriedollarearningsorAverageDraftPositionrankings(ADPs)isnolessfrustrating.Thereisonlya65%chancethataplayerprojectedforacertaindollarvaluewillfinishtheseasonwithinplus-or-minus$5ofthatprojection.Thatmeans,ifyouprojectaplayerwillearn$25andyouagonizewhenbiddinghits$27,thereisreallyabouta2-in-3shotofhimfinishinganywherebetween$20and$30. SoIshouldn'tworryaboutthoseextrafewbucks?Inmostcases,no.Butauctionpricingisgoingtobemarket-drivenanyway.So,ifyouareconvincedthataplayerisworth$25andlandhimfor$21,youwillhaveoverpaidiftherestofyourleagueseeshimasnomorethana$19player.Evenifheisreallyworth$30.

Arrrgh!Igiveup.AreyousayingIshouldjustpaywhateverforwhoeverandnotworryaboutbudgetsorbargainsorvalueoranything?!

Youstillneedtofollowthemarket,butingeneral,yes.Forecasterswillgiveyouastatlinethatwillsplitthedifferencebetweenhigh-endandlow-endprobabilities.Theyhavenochoicebuttohedge;thereistoomuchrisktocommittoanyoneendoftheperformancespectrum.(Reputationsareatstake!)Soifallthetopanalystsdon'tknowwhattheheckeachplayerisgoingtodo,clearlytheotherownersinyourleaguehavenoclueeither.Youneedtodecidewhetheraplayerisworthowningandthenjustfollowthemarket.I'llgetmoreintothatmuchlater. Niceguy.Teasemewithallthisstuffandthenputmeoffuntillater.You'renotready.There'smore.I'vesaidthisoften:thetwomostpowerfulforcesknowntomanareregressionandgravity.Ifyou'reeverfacedwiththequestionofwhethertoprojectaplayertoimproveordecline,thebetterpercentageplaywillalwaysbeDECLINE.Butthatrunscountertowhatwewanttoseeinourplayers.That'swhysomanyofusareinfatuatedwithupwardlymobilerookiesandanythinginadatasetthatevenremotelylookslikeimprovement.But,facts:FACT:Playerswhoearn$30inaseasonareonlya34percentbettorepeatorimprovethefollowingseason.(MattCederholm)

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FACT:Pitcherswhoearnlessthan$24inaseasonretainonly52percentoftheirvaluethefollowingyear.Moreexpensivepitchersdoretain80percentoftheirvalue.(MichaelWeddell)That80percentisnicebutitstillmeansyouracepitcher'svalueisgoingtodecline.Ifyouarelookingforvalueretentionorareasonablereturnonyourinvestmentinthisgame,you'replayingthewronggame.Thisisnolessevidentinsnakedraftleagueswhenitcomestotheverybestplayers.Onewouldthinkbaseball'selitestarsarethemostprojectablecommodities.Onewouldbewrong.FACT:ThesuccessrateofADPrankingscorrectlyidentifyingeachseason’stop15players(inanyorder)isonly35.5percent.Infact,thosetop15playersfinishsomewhereinthetop30only52.8percentofthetime.(Studyperiod:2004-2016)Sohere'sthetakeaway:Whenyousitdownatthedrafttable(oryourcomputer,whatever)andstartagonizingoverwhoisgoingtofalltoyouinthefirstround,thereisnearlyatwo-in-threechancethatwhoeveryouendupdraftingwillbewrong.About10ofthefirst15playerstakeninyourdraftwillnotearnbacktheirowner'sinvestment.

That'sridiculous.You'relying.Seemsthatway,right?ButrememberthatAndrewMcCutchenwasafirst-roundpickinboth2015and2016,andfinished32ndand141st,respectively.DittoforGiancarloStanton,whofinishedNos.156and260.BryceHarperwasrankedNo.10in2014andfinished319th;hewasranked3rdin2016andfinished98th. It'seasytocherry-pick.Okay,wellconsiderthefollowingplayerswhoshareasimilarcharacteristictoCutch,StantonandHarper:RyanBraun,ChrisDavis,PrinceFielder,CarlosGomez,AdrianGonzalez,CarlosGonzalez,JoshHamilton,FelixHernandez,RyanHoward,MattKemp,EvanLongoria,MarkTeixeiraandTroyTulowitzki.All13playersholdthedistinctionofsportingafirstroundADPsometimebetween2011and2015…andeveryoneofthemfinishedtheseasonatleast100spotsfromthatADP.It'sjustfurtherevidenceofthevolatilityofstatistics,evenatthetop.

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PerformanceEnhancingDrugsIhavewrittenextensivelyabouttheimpactofPEDsonthestatisticsthatdriveourgame.Whilethereremainsdisagreementamonganalystsabouthowrealormeasurabletheimpactis,therearefivelogicaltruthsthataretoughtodeny.1.Peoplearegenerallyhonest,exceptifit'sachoicebetweenhonestyandsurvival.2.Forproathletes,survivaloftenequatestomaintaininganedgetostaygainfullyemployed.3.IfPEDsdidnotimproveorsustainperformanceinordertogiveathletesanedge,whywouldtheyaccepttheriskofusingthem?4.Thedruglaboratorieswillalwaysbeonestepaheadofthedrugtesters.5.Youcan'tdismissthepossibilitythatanyradicalswinginproductivitycouldbecausedbyaplayer'suseordiscontinuanceofPEDs.

Ugh.IhatetalkaboutPEDs.Areyoutryingtosaythatallplayersaremotivatedtocheat?

No,notallofthem.Butit'syetonemorevariablethatputsthe"realness"ofallstatisticsatrisk.Andunfortunately,it'snaïvetothinkthatthelackofdailyPEDheadlinesmeanstheproblemhasbeencontained.Theabovetruthsdon'tchange;neitherdoestheefforttocoverupPEDuse.

ButwhataboutallthoseminorleaguersintheMitchellReport?Aren'ttheyproofthatPEDsdon'twork?

ForanyallegedPEDuserswhofellshortofarealMajorLeaguecareer,it'spossiblethattheyneverwouldhavemadeitoutofrookieballwithoutthathelp.Wedon'tknow.TheimpactofPEDsisrelativetoeachplayer'sactualskilllevel.Thatmeansweneedtoquestionthelegitimacyofperformancestatsthroughouteverylevelofproball.Probablycollegeandhighschooltoo. Ithinkmyheadisgoingtoexplode.Isaidyouweren'treadytohearthetruth,andImeantit.Butthere'sonemorevariable.I'vesavedthebiggestoneforlast.

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PlayingTimeYoucandoalltheskillsassessmentyouwant,butthebaneofourexistencehasbecometheblackholeofprojectingplayingtime.It'sanearlyimpossibletask.

Youmakeitsoundlikeit'sanewproblem.Becauseitisarelativelynewproblem.Twentyyearsago,projectingplayingtimewasjustanothervariablepronetosomenormalvolatility.Itwasnomoredifficulttoprojectthanhomersorstrikeouts. So,whatchanged?ContinuallyescalatingMLBplayersalariesandthecrackdownonPEDsreachedatippingpointinthemid-2000s.Theresult?Withteamsbendingoverbackwardstoprotecttheirhigh-pricedinvestmentsandplayersrunningscaredofgettingnailedbydrugtesters,thesafeharbortostashbodiesbecamethe15-dayDL.In2007,thenumberofdisabledlistdaysspikedfrom22,472to28,524.Fiveyearslater,itcracked30,000.In2016,playersspent31,329daysontheDL.Withtheintroductionofthe10-dayDL–whichlowersthebarrierofentrytostashaplayerwithoutplacinganylimitsontheback-endofthose10days–thesenumberscouldskyrocketfurther.EachtimeaplayerhitstheDL,itcreatesanopeningforanotherplayertofillthevoid.MoreDLstintsmeanmorenewplayersclaimingapieceoftheplayingtimepie.

Sowhat?Wecan'tbetalkingaboutthatmanynewplayers.Well,waybackin1985,about39players,onaverage,wouldappearonamajorleaguerosterduringthecourseofaseason.In2016,thatnumberreachednearly52.Fromthe2016BaseballForecaster:"Whilethenumberofplayersseeingmajorleagueactioneachyearisrising,thenumberofgameshasremainedthesame.Eachteamstillplays162games,whichgeneratesanearlyfixednumberofoutsandinnings,andaverynarrowrangeofplateappearance.Thesedays,availableplayingtimeisthesamebut13moreplayersperteamarefightingforapieceofit."We'vebeengoingintoour15-teamdraftswithprojectionsallotting6500ABand1450IPofplayingtimeto345players(15teamsx23playersperteam).Butwereallyneedtoallotthosesameat-batsandinningsto465players,thenumberwhoareactuallygoingtobeseeingthatplayingtime.Ifwefailtoaccountforthatreality–andarenotatleastreasonablyaccurateinthateffort–thefalloutishuge:

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From2013to2016,between47percentand53percentoftheADP'stop300playerslostplayingtimeduetothedisabledlist,demotion,suspensionorrelease.Sinceplayingtimeisazero-sumproposition,thoselostABandIPhadtogosomewhere,andinfact,morethan70percentofthemostprofitableplayersweredrivenbyunexpectedincreasesinplayingtime.Theopportunityforthoseplayingtimeincreaseswaslargelydependentonexternalevents,virtuallynoneofwhichwerepredictableonDraftDay.Andso,morethan70percentofeachseason'smostprofitableplayerswereunpredictableonDraftDay.Asyouwouldexpect,thesemostprofitableplayershadadisproportionatelylargeimpactonwhowontheirleagues.Researchshowedthat25percentoftheteamsowningoneormoreofthemostprofitableplayerswontheirleagueoutright.Morethan50percentofthoseteamswiththemostprofitableplayersfinishednolowerthanthirdplace.Thebiggestdrivingforcebehindallthat–changesinplayingtime–wasunpredictableonDraftDay.

Wow.So,allinall,areyoutellingmethat,despiteallthemassiveeffortwe'vebeenexpendingtoconstructelaboratesystemstoprojectplayerperformance,noneofthenumberscanbetrusted?

Well,wecanalittle,butnotenoughforittomatter.Aboutfiveyearsago,Iasked12ofthemostprolificfantasychampionsinhighstakesleaguesandnationalexpertscompetitionstoranksixvariablesbasedonhowimportanttheyweretowinningconsistently."Moreaccurateplayerprojections"cameindeadlast.

Whatdidtheysaywerethemostimportantvariablestowinningconsistently?Hereweretheresults:1.Betterin-draftstrategy/tactics2.Bettersenseofvalue3.Betterluck4.Bettergraspofcontextualelementsthataffectplayers5.Betterin-seasonrostermanagement6.MoreaccurateplayerprojectionsTherewasactuallyaseventhvariablebroughtupbyLarrySchechter–betteruseandaccesstotime.Hesaidthatthemoretimeinvestedintheentireprocess,thebettertheresults.Researchsupportsthefactthatbetterdecisionsaremadewhenmoretimeistakentoanalyzetheimportantinputvariables.Larry'strackrecord–sixToutWarstitles–certainlysupportsthat.Buthere'saquestion:Canyoubuildasuccessfulteamwithoutstatisticalplayerprojectionsatall?Thatisthequestionthisbookisgoingtotrytoanswer.Butfirst,weneedtodiscusssomemoreobstaclestosuccess.

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TheBABSProjectChapter2

HowPsychologyisOuttoGetYouForthesakeofargument,let'ssaythatyoubuyintoeverythingIwroteinthelastchapter.(Iwon'tdeludemyselfintothinkingthateveryoneisdrinkingmyKool-Aid...yet.)Let'ssaythatyouagreethatplayerprojectionsaregarbage…um,highlyflawed.Still,ourbrainplaysitsowntricksonus.Evenifwecouldbelievethedata,therearepsychologicalpitfallsthatalsodousharm.Webasedecisionsonsmallsamplesizes.Timeforafairytale."Onceuponatime,therewasafringeoutfieldprospectintheTampaBayRayssystemnamedJoeyRickard.TheRaysthoughtsohighlyofthisprospect–whohadslammed13HRsin1,237careerminorleagueABs–thattheylefthimunprotectedinthe2015Rule5draft,wherehewasquicklygrabbedupbytheBaltimoreOrioles.Now,theOrioleshadnoshortageoffringeoutfieldtalentthatMarch.ButRickard'sspringtrainingperformancewasHall-of-Fame-worthy–arobust.397/.472/.571slashlinein63at-bats(withonehomerun)againstamixtureofveteransgettingtheirrustoff,marginalsworkingonanewpitch,andminorleaguersplayinglikeminorleaguers.TheO'sweresoimpressedthattheynamedhimtheirOpeningDaystartingleft-fielder.Thankfully,participantsinthenationalexpertsleagueswerenotfooled.Theyknewthat1,237minorleagueat-batsfaroutweighedRickard'squestionable63-ABsmallsampleperformanceinMarch.SoRickardwentundraftedinnearlyeveryexpertsleague.Butinthefirstweekoftheseason,Rickardposteda.467/.438/.733line(withonehomerun)in15AB.Thatweekend,morethan50expertsacrosssixleaguesplacedfreeagentbidsfortheO'sstartingleft-fielder,withanaveragewinningbidofnearly$150(outofa$1000budget).Isupposeevenexpertscanlosetheirminds.Allthosepreciousfreeagentdollarsweretossedarounddueto15AB.Andnotjustany15AB.Itwas15ABagainstleaguethepowerhousesinMinnesotaandTampaBay.ThepitchersRickardfacedinthosecoldBaltimoreoutingshadnameslike

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Santana,Fien,Gibson,HughesandArcher,whocollectivelyposteda7.23ERAin18.2IPthatweek.RickardfinishedAprilwitha.280average,twoHRsandoneSB.HefinishedMaywitha.249average,fourHRsandthreeSBs.Hewascutfromnearlyalltheexperts'rostersbymid-June.TheOriolesputhimontheDLwithathumbinjuryinJuly,wherehestayedfortherestoftheseason.Andnobodylivedhappilyeverafter."

Fessup,Shandler.Ibetevenyouplacedabid.Sadly,yes.I'lladmitthatIplacedalosingbidof$57inTout-AL.Intoday'sfantasyenvironment,youneedtoatleasthaveahorseintherace.Thereisalwaystheslightestchancethataplayercouldsustaintheirperformancelongenoughtohaveapositiveimpactonyourroster.ButRickard'swinningownersinvested15percentoftheirentirefreeagentbudgetsonaspeculationthat78at-batsagainstquestionablecompetitionweremorelegitimatethantheprevious1,237ABs.Thatdecision-makingshowshowyoucanbeblindedbysmallsamplesizes.Wetrytoferretoutpatternswithinstatisticalnoise.Humans(includingyouandI)arehard-wiredtotrytofindpatterns.Initsgrandestsense,wedothistosurvive.Theworldisfullofchaos–eveninnon-electionyears–andit'sthewayourbrainsattempttocreateorder.Baseballanalysisissimilarlyallaboutfindingpatternsindata.Weseeabatterhitting8,10and12homerunsinsuccessiveyears,andweimmediatelylabelthatasagrowthtrend.Maybeitis.Butresearchbackin2010byEdDeCariashowedthattheoddsofthenextdatapointinthatseriesbeing14aresmall.Infact,thegreatestoddsarethatthenextpointregressesbackto10,oreven9.Asdescribedinthelastchapter,sincethatwedon'tevenknowhowreal8,10and12are,it'sdifficulttoconcludethatthereisanytrendatall.That8-HRyearcouldhavebeen13iffiveofhisdoubleshadtraveledanother5feet.That12-HRyearmighthavebeen9ifnotforthosethreenightswhenthewindwasblowingout.Wefantasyleaguersneedtofindpatterns.That'sthestartingpointfortheentireforecastingprocess.Butwhenthedataitselfissuspect–obscuredingreatmeasurebynoise–maybeit'sbetternottobelookingforsomethingthatmightnotexist.Likebettersentencestructure.Let'splayalittlegame. Oo,Ilikegames!

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Good!Hereisashortseriesofdatapointsrepresentingoneplayer'sRotisserieearningsduringhisfirstthreeyearsinthemajors:$7,$15,$18.Tellmewhatyouthinkheearnsinyear#4.

Well…itseemslikegrowth,butyouwarnedmeagainstassumingthat.I'lltakethebait.I'llsaythatheearns$16inyear#4.

That'saveryreasonableguess.Anyof$14,$15or$16wouldtakeanappropriatelevelofregressionintoaccount.Inyear#4,thisplayeractuallyearned$23. What?Youtrickedme!Ididn'ttrickyou.Thisisanactualplayer.So,nowyou'refacedwitha4-yeartrend:$7,$15,$18,$23.Whatdoesthisplayerearninyear#5?

Okay,nowyou'rescrewingwithme.LogicdictatesthatIsay$19or$20,butyou'vealreadyprimedmetoexpecttheunexpected.I'llsay$25.

Anothergoodguess.Mostanalystswouldprobablyhavestuckwithsometypeofregressedvalue,andIcantellyouthattheForecasterprojectedthisplayertoearn$22inyear#5.Butheactuallyearned$28.

Ofcourse.Fourstraightyearsofincreasingearnings–isthisarealplayer?ShouldIbelieveyou?

Youcanchoosewhattobelieve.Butlet'skeepgoing.We'renowat$7,$15,$18,$23,$28.Whatdoeshedoinyear#6?

Thereisnowaythiscankeepgoing.I'mgoingtosay$24.That'smyfinalanswer.

Andthatisthecorrectplay.Regressionisalwaysthecorrectplay.TheForecasterprojected$26.Butheactuallyearned$32.

You'replayingme.Youclearlypickedanoutlier…ifheactuallyexistsatall.Well,that'sonethingyougotright.Aplayerwiththisconsistenta5-yeartrendisclearlyanoutlier.Doyouwanttokeepgoing? Sure,whynot?It'sonlyaguessinggameatthispoint.Okay.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32.What'snext? Regressionisalwaysthecorrectplay…evenwhenitisn't.I'llsay$29.

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RememberthatMattCederholmsaid,"Playerswhoearn$30inaseasonareonlya34percentbettorepeatorimprovethefollowingseason."Giventhat,itwouldseemthattheoddsofhimcontinuingtoimprove,orevenholdingsteady,arelow.Inthenextsection,I'llshowyouhowthatskewsourexpectations,butfornow…inyear#7,heearned…Waitforit…$28. Hooray!Theplanetsfinallyalign!Doesitkeepgoing?Forsure.Therearetwomoredatapoints.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28.It’snolesstrickynow.Was$28anoutlier?Doesherebound?Ordoesthedownwardtrendcontinue?

I'dhavetosayhe'sathispeakandwouldprobablybouncearoundabitforafewyears.I'llpeghisearningsat$30.

Yeah,that'sareasonableassumption.But,no.Heonlyearned$19in2015. $19?!Yougottabefreakin'kiddingme.It'sallreal.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28,$19.Thisfinaldatapointis2016.I'llgiveyouonehint:hewas30yearsoldin2016. Ugh.Thiscouldbethebeginningofthedownslope.Buthe'snotthatoldthathe couldstillreboundalittle.I'llsay…$22.Nah,$14.Forecastingisatoughgame. Morelikeasucker'sgame.Whowastheplayer?Washereal?AdamJonesisveryreal.Andasmuchasthisexercisewasfrustrating,alookatJones'careerprovidesaprettyslickbellcurve:$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28,$19.$14.Wewouldbesoluckyifeveryplayer'scareerfollowedasfineatrendasthis.They'dbeacinchtoprojecteachyear(oh,theirony!).

Waitaminute,waitaminute.Isanyofthisdatavalid?CanweevenuseRotisserieearningstoevaluateplayers?Isn'tthisthesameargumentyoumadeagainstusingOPS?

You'reright;nicejob.That'swhyallofthesedatapointsaresuspect.AdamJones'bellcurveisprobablynotnearlyasconsistentasitseems.ChrisDavis'valuesareprobablynotaserraticastheyseem.Still,therearetwoareaswhereRotisseriedollarscanhavesomevalue.

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1.Iwouldn'tusepastRotoearningstoprojectnextyear'sdollarvalue,buttheydohaveanadvantageoverothermetrics.Thisisbecausethedollarcalculationnormalizesstatisticstothelevelofoffenseandpitchingeachyear.Soa30-HRperformanceinahighoffenseseason(like2016)wouldearnfewerdollarsthanthatsame30-HRperformanceinalowoffenseseason(like2014).Theabovedatasetsarefinetoevaluatewithinthelimitationoftheimpreciseinputs.2.Sharpchangesinperformancearereflectedprettyaccurately,eveniftheprecisedollarvaluesareinexact.Sowecanuserotodollarstosuggestthemagnitudeofabreakoutorbreakdownperformance.Ifthere'sonethingthatI'velearnedaboutbreakouts,it'sthattheydon'ttypicallyariseinastraightlineoutofatrackablegrowthtrend.Mostfolksperceiveabreakoutplayer'sdollarvaluestolooksomethinglikethis:$8,$10,$13,$25.Buttherealityis,mostbreakoutslookmorelikethis:$8,$13,$10,$38–amassive,unexpectedspike.Herearetwoexamples:$-3,$5,$0,$2,$31,$36,$12,$19,$32,$25,$9JoseBautistashuttledbetweenfull-timeandpart-timeworkhisfirstfouryearsinthemajorsbeforeexplodingin2010.Ifwehadfocusedontheskillandviewedhisplayingtimeasavariablerisk,wemighthavebeenabletoseesomethingcoming.Hisperformancessincethenhavefitnodiscernablepattern,thoughitdoesappearthathemightbeonthefarsideofthebellcurve.$-7,$-5,$-15,$-5,$19Thisdatasetisthrough2014.Whatwouldyouhaveprojectedforthisplayercominginto2015?TheForecasterbelievedthathisimprovementwasrealandprojected$18.ButJakeArrietaearned$44.Mosttoutssawthatbreakoutasatleastpartiallysustainable,butthenheregressedto$24in2016.Inthenextchapter,we'llstartlookingatplayersasentitiesthatpossessassetsandliabilities.Byevaluatingeachseparately,wecansometimesdetectthebreakoutsbeforetheyoccur.Onelastthing.Thisquesttodrawconclusionsaboutperformancetrendsextendstoteamsaswell.Justlikebreakoutplayers,teamsdon'talwaysadvanceordeclineinastraightline.Withteams,therearesomanymovingpieces,andsomanyopportunitiesoversixmonthstotweak,thatit'stoughtopredictperformancefromoneseasontothenext.Everyseasonstartsasablankslate;lastyear'swon-lossrecordisnotthestartingpointforthisseason'sresults.Itworksthesamewayforplayers.

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Welookatresearchresultsbasedonaggregatedataanddrawfiniteconclusionsaboutindividualplayers.I'vedoneatonofresearchoverthepast30yearsashavetheanalystswho'vewrittenformeatBaseballHQ.com.Mostofthisstuffisincrediblyinsightfulandthefindingsreallyhelpusunderstandthecomponentsoftrueskill.Theproblemisthattheseresultsreflecttendenciesonamacrolevel.Noneofthemproduceapercentageplaythat'sgoodenoughtomakemicroplayerdecisionswithanyconfidence.Astandardfantasyrosterwith23playersiswaytoosmallasamplesizeforanyofthistomatter.(There'sthatstatementagain.)Youarenotgoingtobeabletoleverageminisculepercentagedifferenceswithsofewchancestoberightorwrong.Those23playersarejustnotenoughopportunitiestocoveryourrisk.Herearethreewidely-usedvariablesthatarealmostalwaysawasteoftimetoworryabout.Age:Researchshowsthatplayers'skillspeakatacertainage–26,27,23,28,31–pickanumber.Butthosearejustroughaverages.Noteveryplayerisgoingtopeakatagivenage.Sotargeting28-year-oldsinyourdraftwillonlypayoffifyou'reinabout30leagues.Andeventhen,youmightenduppassingona21-year-oldrookiewhohitsthegroundrunningoradecliningveteranwhohasahugereboundseasonatage39.Withonly23chances,theoddsofrosteringanoutlierarenotmuchdifferentfromtheoddsofrosteringaplayerthatfitsyourtarget.However…thereareafewtimeswhentheoddsarehighenoughtopursue.Eventually,playersageoutofrosterableskills.Thatageisdifferentforeveryplayer,buttheoldertheyget,thehighertheodds.So,ifaplayerhasacareeryearinhismid-to-late30s,betagainstarepeat.Ifaplayerhasacrappyyearinhislate30s,betagainstarebound.Thosearehigherpercentageplaysandareprettymuchtheonlyonesworthchasing.(ThoughtherewillalwaysbeaPED-fueledMarlonByrdtoscrewthingsup.)Parkeffects:Iknowfromexperiencethatmosttoutsgothroughapainstakingconversionprocesseverytimeaplayerswitchesteams.I'vecometofindtheexerciseofadjustingprojectionsforparkeffectsmostlyawasteoftime.Inrecentyears,we'veseenaplayerlikeBrianMcCannmovetoanewpark(YankeeStadium)thatshouldhaveturnedhiminto30-plusHRmonster.Anychangeinpowerskillwasfarshortofexpectation.Evenextremeballparkchangesareinconclusive.Wasn'tNelsonCruz'spowersupposedtodisappearmovingfromBaltimoretoSeattle?Itdidn'thappen.

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Thatbringsupabiggerquestion:howdoyouknowthatanincreaseordecreaseinaplayer'soutputisreallypark-related?Ifa30-HRhittermovestoaparkthatincreasespowerby20percent–whichisahugeleap–thenwecouldexpecthimtonowbea33-HRhitter(thepercentageonlyaffectshomegames).Buta3-HRincreaseiswellwithinthelimitsofnormalstatisticalvariance.Howdoweknowthatnormalskillsgrowthdidn'tdrivetheincreaseinhomeruns?Orsimplestatisticalvolatility?Oratrioofwell-timedgustsofwind?It'sevenmorefuzzywithratiogauges.However…ifyouaregoingtouseitatall,focusonthemargins.Thenoticeableimpactsareonlygoingtocomefromahittermovingfromoneofthebesthittersparkstooneoftheworst,orviceversa.Theinversegoesforpitchers,obviously.Ihavegivenupcalculatinganythinginbetween.Team:Ifyouhavetwoplayersofcomparableskill,butoneplaysonacontenderandtheotherplaysonadoormat,you'llalmostalwaysoptfortheplayeronthebetterclub.Teamenvironmentmatters,right?MorerunsandRBIs,morewinsandsaves.UnlessyouinvestedintheRedSoxandNationalsin2015,twoteamsthatweresupposedtocontend.OrmaybeyoubetheavilyonthedefendingchampionRoyalstobebetterthana.500clubin2016.Failuretocorrectlypredictteamenvironmentforthoseclubshadahugeimpact.Evenpickingtherightteamisnoguarantee.In2016,IndiansCarlosCarrascoandDannySalazaronlywon11gamesapiece.The2015Dodgersshouldhavebeenaprimetarget,butnobodybehindAdrianGonzalezamassedmorethan60RBIs.Asatie-breakerwheneverythingelseisequal?Sure.ButI'mwillingtobetyoucanfindsomeothervariablethatwillhavemoreofanimpact.Wearelargelydrivenbyrecencybias.Weliveinaworldwherewe'reinundatedininformation.It'sfartoomuchtoprocesssowehavetorelyonsmallerchunksthatareeasiertoremember.Andtheeasiestpiecesofdatatorememberarethoseclosesttothesurfaceofourconsciousness.AskmewhatIhadforbreakfastthismorningbutforgetaboutmerememberingwhatIhadfordinnertwonightsago.("RedcurryatthatThairestaurant."–thewife)Theeffectsofrecencybiasonmanagingourfantasyteamshavegrownovertimeastheamountofinformationwe'vehadtoprocesshasgrown.Partofitisjusttheendlessquesttograbatwhateverwecan.I'vealreadytalkedaboutsmallsamplesizes–that'spartofit–butthesedays,evenapartialseasonofaberrantperformanceoftentrumpsa10-yearcareerofconsistency.

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Recencybiasdriveseachyear'sADPs.Thequickestwaytoearnafirstroundrankingistopostfirst-roundearningsthepreviousyear.Thesenewriserswhohavesupplantedthevetscouldwellbethenextwaveofstartalent,butarewepassingjudgmentafterjustoneseason?Afterall,outliersrunbothways.It'slikewecompletelyignoreoneoftheveryfirsttenetsofbaseballprognosticating:Don'tprojectaplayerbasedononeseason'sstats.After30years,havewelearnednothing?Thehistoricaltrackrecordshowsthatpitchersearningfirstroundvalueinoneseasonalmostneverrepeatthefeatinconsecutiveyears.ClaytonKershawmanagedtodefythisformanyyears–hewastheonlyone!–butevenhecouldn'tescapein2016.Volatilepitchingstatsandthechangingcompositionofthetalentpooldrivethatphenomenon.Butguaranteedthatsomeoflastyear'sdominantarmsarestillgoingtogetdraftedaheadofotherswhohavebeenmorestableandconsistentyearinandyearout.Finally,Iwrotethisinearly2016:"IsitnotludicroustoincludeCarlosCorrea'snameamong2016first-roundersafter427majorleagueplateappearances?IsCorreareallyaonce-in-a-generationplayer?Maybeheis,butareyougoingtobetonitbycommittingacorerosterspottoaspeculationofguaranteedgreatness?"WhileCorreahadasolidseason,hecamenowhereclosetohisdraftslot.Thishappenstimeandtimeagain.Whydopeoplekeepdoingthis? Maybewedon'twanttomissout.Wemakedecisionsbasedonthefearofmissingout.Igetitthatyoudon'twanttobetheguywhomissesoutonthenextHall-of-Famer.Butwereyoureally,reallyabsolutelycertainthatCorreawasacan't-missplayer?Enoughtoriskthatall-importantfirstroundpick?EveryyearbringsanotherexampleofwhathappenswhenyoubuyintotheFearofMissingOut.Evenifaplayerperformsclosetoexpectation–likeKrisBryantdidin2015–over-draftinghimofferednobenefit.TheteamsthatwonleaguesthatyearwerenotthosethatownedBryant,becausehewaspurchasedatnearlyfullvalue.Therewasnoadvantagetopayingthatmuch;therewasonlytheriskthatanunprovenplayerwouldfail.Similarly,thosein2016whodraftedCorreaamongthetop10playersoverpaidasCorreafinishedoutsidethetop70.Whenyoudraftaplayerlikethatinthefirstround,thereisfarmoredownsidethanupside.Ifheisfullyproductive,you'vesetaveryhighbarforhimtoreturnpar

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value.Perhapshehasahigherfloorthanothers,soyourdownsideismitigated.Butwesimplydon'tknowwhatthatrangeis.Hereismycompletelyunscientifictakeontheoddsforthattypeofplayerasafirstrounder:Profit 1%Parvalue 20%Someloss 60%Majorloss 19%Youcanquibblewiththepercentages,butthegeneralconclusionhastobethesame:whatareyouchasing?In2015,Bryantfellintothe20%.In2016,Correafellintothe60%.Ifyou'reoverpayingforaspeculationatthedraft,you'realsopotentiallypassinguponprofitopportunitieslateron.Asmuchasyouthinkyoucanfindprofitineveryplayer,youonlyget23chances,andthereareatleastadozenotherguysinyourleague,allthinkingthesameway.Thisisparticularlydangerousintheearlyroundswherewe'veshownthatouroveralltrackrecordisterrible.Hereareafewinterestingplayersofnote: #yearsdraftedin1stRd #yearsearnedPlayer forFearofMissingOut 1stRdvalueTulowitzki,T 4 0Longoria,E 3 0Gonzalez,C 4 1Fielder,P 4 1Stanton,G 3 1Talkaboutdoingthesamethingoverandoveragain,andexpectingdifferentresults.WebasedecisionsonNOW.Thereisasubconsciouspartofusthatactuallyagreeswiththefactthatyoucan'tpredictthefuture.Ifourdecision-makingprocesswasfullyconsciousanddeliberate,wemighttakeanobjectivelookateachsituationwithaneyetowardstomorrow.Instead,wetendtotaketheeasywayoutandjustviewwhatishappeningrightnowasafixedreality.Butrealityisnotfixed.Itisfluid.Onedecisionbegetsuncertainoutcomes,whichbegetotherdecisions. English,please.Atleastgivemeanexample.Okay.Here'sanotherfairytale:

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"Onceuponatime(early2015),therewasacloserfortheSeattleMarinersnamedFernandoRodney.Hehadavolatilecareer–someverygoodyearsandsomeverybadones–anddespitetherebeingsomequestionabouthisabilitytoholddownacloser'srole,InternationalExpert(andManofIntrigue)RonShandlerspentfull-pricecloserdollarsforhiminToutWars($16).Shandlerreasonedthat,despiteRodney'serratictrackrecord,hewasthecloserNOW.Asitwouldturnout,itdidn'ttakelongforRodneytoturnintoapumpkin,wipingoutShandler'sinvestment(andrelegatinghimtolastplaceinsavesfortherestoftheseason).WhenCarsonSmithinnocuouslyslidintothecloser'srole,heimmediatelybecametheNOWguy,andfantasyleaguersaroundtheworldproceededtoexhaustasignificantpartoftheirfreeagentacquisitionresourcesonapitcherwithfarbetterskillsthanthedeposedRodney.Because,betterskillsandNOW.TheseNOWinvestmentsalsocomewithaninherentexpectationoflongevity–weexpectthepitcherwillholdtherolefortherestoftheyear.Butwhenitcomestoclosers,theyholdthatroleuntiltheydon't,andsometimesthein-seasonshelflifeforthatroleisweeks,ordays.Smith'sninthinning"BestifUsedBy"dateexpiredafterabouttwoandahalfmonths.HestartedlosinggamesandblowingsavesinlateJuly,andwassupplantedbyTomWilhelmsonbymid-August.Wilhelmson'sskillsetpaledincomparisontoSmith's(andonceSmithlosttherole,hedidnotgiveuparunfortherestoftheseason)butthat'snotwhatrealityisabout.WilhelmsonwasnowtheNOWguydrawingwhatevermeagerfreeagentresourceswerestillleft.Aftertheseasonwasover,theMarinersrespondedtoallthisbytossinglastyear'sNOWguystothecurbandstartingoverwithabunchofnewNOWguys.Andtheyalllivedhappilyeverafter.ExceptforShandler."Somestoriesdon'thavehappyendings.Butwatch...NOWisgoingtocomeintoplayinmanyofourfutureconversations. Nicestory.Iassumeyoudidn'twinToutWars.Um,no.Buttheexperienceisrepresentative.Rodney'sownersin2016hadsimilarstoriestotell.Hereareotherwaysthatourdecision-makingprocessesareinfluencedbyNOW:

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Therearesomeplayerswholockdownrolesattheveryendofspringtraining,basedononeortwogamesoflateperformance.WetreatthoseNOWguysasfixedrealities,biddingthemuptofullvalueonDraftDayasif"winningajob"istheonlyprerequisitetofull-seasonsuccess.Thisalsogoesbacktothesmallsamplesizediscussion.YourNo.4startingpitchergetsofftoaridiculouslygoodstart.Despitethefactthathisskillshavenotchangedsubstantiallyandhisrecentsuccessisagainstweakcompetition,yourefusetoentertaintradeoffers,becauseheisdoingwellNOW.Whatifhekeepsitup?AreyoucontractinganacutecaseofFearofMissingOut?Manyofthesepsychologicalpotholesareinterrelated.Theyareallobstaclestosuccess.Butenoughpain,fornow.It'stimetobegintheconstructionprocess.

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TheBABSProjectChapter3

TheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheetFordecades,wehavebeentoldthatthegoalinfantasybaseballistoassembleagroupofplayerswhoseaggregatestatisticsexceedthoseofalltheotherteamsintheleague.Infact,thatistheactualverbiageintheOfficialRotisserieBaseballLeagueConstitution.Butwedon'tknowwhatstatisticsourplayersaregoingtoputupuntilafterthey'vedoneit.Right?Right?!

Yeah,yeah,yeah,Iremember.StillnotsureIbuyitcompletely,butI'mlistening.

Canweatleastagreethatwedon'tknowtheexactnumbersplayersaregoingtoputupandtherangesaroundthoseprojectionscanbevery,verywide? Sure.Areyoucomfortablewiththeideathatabetterapproachmightbetoonlyplanaroundthevariablesthatwedoknow? Isuppose.Good.Wedoknoweachplayer'shistoricalskillsprofile.Wehaveageneralsenseofeachplayer'srole.Andweknowthepotentialriskfactorsthatwillultimatelycolorthenumbers.Ourfantasyteamisacollectionoftheseskills,rolesandrisks–eachplayer'sassetsandliabilities.Butforaslongaswe'vebeenplayingthisgame,we'vebeengoingintoourdraftsjusttryingtoaccumulatethemostprojectedstats.Playersaremorethanjustabunchofprojectedstats.TakeGiancarloStanton.Please.WhenyoudraftStanton,you'renotjustgettingthepotentialfor35-plusHR.You'realsogettingawideerrorbararoundthosehomerunsbecausethereisalonghistoryofinjuryrisk.Whenyoudraftarookie–anyrookie–you'renotjustgettingtheexpectationforacertainlevelofstats;you'realsogettingtheuncertaintysurroundinghislackofexperience. Butaren'tallthosevariablesbuiltintotheprojections?

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Mosttoutsattempttodothat,buthowdoyouquantifyrisk?Theadjustmentsweapplytotheprojectionsareoftenjustarbitrary–we'lllopoffabunchofABorIPtoaccountforhowmuchtimewethinkaninjury-proneplayermightmiss,orwe'llmakesubjectivedecisionsaboutthequalitatives.There'slittlesciencebehindityetwe'llbedraftingourteamsoffwhatevernumbersareonourcheatsheets.Let'slookatStantonalittlecloser.Itisacknowledgedthatheisoneofthebestpurepowerhittersinbaseball.However,insevenmajorleagueseasons,he'smanagedtostayhealthyforanentireyearjusttwice–in2011and2014.In2015,hehittheDLwithahandinjuryinJuneandnevercameback.In2016,hisseasonendedwithagroininjuryinAugust.Stantonamassed539ABinhishealthy2014season,acareerhigh.For2016,theForecasterattemptedtoaccountfortheinjuryriskbyhedgingwitha490-ABprojection.Therewereothersourcesthattookaleapoffaithandprojectedafullhealthyyear,oftenforecastingevenhigherABnumbersthanhe'deverposted.Wishfulthinking,perhaps?ButStantonwasneverwithoutrisk.Hishistoricalhealthtrackrecorddidnotinstillconfidencethathecouldgetthroughafullseasoninjury-free.YoucouldnotdismissthepossibilitythathemightmisssometimeevenifhewasperfectlyhealthyonOpeningDay.Butyoualsocouldn'tarbitrarilydecidehowmuchofaplayingtimediscounttoproject.Evenifyouboughtintoa550-ABprojection–ora490ABhedge–hisstatlinenevergaveyouinsightintotherisk.Nobodyprojectedthathe'dget413ABsin2016;worse,nobodyprojectedthathisskillsmetricswouldcratertoo.Bycombiningdisparatevariablesintoasingleprojectedstatline,youlosetheabilitytodistinguishtheskillfromtherisk.Weneedawaytokeepeverythingseparate.WeneedtobeabletopresentStanton'strueunderlyingskillswithoutmakingassumptionsabouthisriskfactorsbecause,well,thereisachancethathedoesstayhealthyallyearandtapsbackintohisdemonstratedskillsprowess,andwewanttoseewhatthatmightlooklike.Butwealsoneedtopresentthoseriskfactorssoyoucandrawyourownconclusionsabouthowimportanttheyaretoyou,ifatall.Thefactis,Stanton'sunderlyingskillsputhiminthesameclassofplayersasmanyelitefirst-rounders.Butriskiswhatsetshimapart.Yousimplycan'tbuildthatintoastatisticalprojectionandclaimit'smoreaccurate.Consider…abalancesheet.That'ssomethingwe'veneverdone–we'veneverviewedourplayersandrostersasbalancesheets.Wemayhavekeptrunningtotalsofprojections–ourassets,sortof–butwerarelykeptarecordofliabilities.It'sthebalanceofassetsandliabilities–onbothaplayerandteamlevel–thatprovidesatruerviewintoourteam'spotentialforsuccessorfailure.

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Maximizingassets,minimizingliabilities.That'showwearegoingtobuildourrosters.Theprocessisoneofplanningoutyouroptimalcross-sectionofskillswhiledecidingupfronthowmuchriskyouarewillingtoincur.Theplayersthenbecomejustpuzzlepieces.TheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet(BABS)istheformalmonikerthatI'vedubbedthisprocess.It'sbroadbecausewe'vealreadydeterminedthat"precise"doesn'twork.It'sanassessment–slightlylessrigorousthanafull-blownanalysisbecausecomplexitydoesn'tbuyusenoughtomakeadifference.It'sabalancesheet,becausethatiswhattheoutputofoureffortisgoingtolooklike.AndIwantyoutobecomefastfriends,solet'sjustcallherBABS.(Ifnothingelse,BABSfinallygivesusastrongfemalepresenceinthishobby,atleastonewhoknowsherwayaroundalightsaber.)Sowestartwithabalancesheet.Whatdoweputintothatbalancesheet?Backin2009,IdevelopedtheMayberryMethod,asimplifiedplayerevaluationsystemnamedafteraplacewherelifewassimpler.Itreducedeachplayertoa7-charactercode:threecharactersforskill(onascaleof0-5),onecharacterforplayingtime(0-5)andthreecharactersforrisk(A-Fgradesforhealth,experienceandconsistency).Asmuchasthatwasahugestepintherightdirection,severalyearsagoIdecidedthatitdidn’tgofarenough.Itwasstilltoogranular.HereistheoriginalintroductiontotheMayberryconcept.ItfullyappliestoBABS,perhapsevenmoreso."Tonight,thefriendlyweatherforecasteronmylocaltelevisionstationhastoldmethatitisgoingtobepartlycloudytomorrowwithahighof78degrees.Isuspectthemeteorologist'sadvancedmodelingsystemspitoutthatfancynumber–78.Ioftenthink,whynot77?Or79?Thetruthis,ifIweretowalkoutsiderightnow,I'dfeelnodifferenceifitwas77,or78,or79.Infact,itprobablyre*quiresagoodfivedegreesformetofeelanynoticeabledifference,andeventhen,itwouldbeslight.79versus74?46versus41?97versus92?Moreimportant,afivedegreedifferencewouldn'tlikelymakemechangemybehavior.IfI'mnotwearingalightjacketat79,I'mnotlikelygoingtodosoat74.The10-dayforecastisanevenmoreinterestingexercise.BesidesthefactthatIdon'tbelievetheycanaccuratelytellmethatitisgoingtorainaweekfromSunday,thelistofdailyhightemperaturesseemstobeanexerciseinexcessiveprecision:80,82,81,82,80,77,77,77,74,76.Whatdoesthistellme?Thefirsthalfoftheweekisgoingtobewarm.Thesecondhalfoftheweekisgoingtobemarginallycooler.

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Infact,theycouldjustsaythatthetempwillbeinthelow80sandIwouldbeperfectlyokaywiththat.High70s,low80s,high80s,low90s...that'sallIneed.Theywouldn'tevenhavetobotherwithmid-70sormid-80sbecausethatwon'tchangewhatIamgoingtowearanyway.Whatdowegainfromtheextraprecision?Wedeludeourselvesintobelievingwearegainingaccuracywheninfactwearegaininganincreasedprobabilityofbeingwrong.We'rejustnotgoodenoughtopredictthetemperaturetotheexactdegreeonadailybasis.Andmostimportant...there'snogreatneedtobesoperfect."Nowlet'stakethisastepfurther.Whatifweweretosaytheonlythingthatisimportantistheclimate'saffectonwhatwewear?Itdoesn'tmatterifthetemperatureis82or95becauseineithercase,we'reheadingoutsideinshortsandsandals.Itneedstogetcoolerthan65beforeweconsiderdonningalightjacket,but64versus54isnearlyirrelevant.Andwewon'tconsiderpullingouttheparkauntilthetempsdipintothelow40s.Now,therangeoftemperaturesthathaveanyactionableconsequencesbecomesquitewide.It'sshortsweather,lightjacketweatherorparkaweather.Anynumberattachedtothethermometerjustdoesn'tmatter.

ANASIDE:Interestinglyenough,whenIlivedinNewHampshire,Ifeltquitecomfortableinshortswhentempswereinthe50s.NowinFlorida,ajacketcomesoutwhentempsareinthelow60s.Isupposethatistheclimateequivalentofparkeffects.

ANOTHERASIDE:Justsoyouknow,revealednowforthefirsttimeeveralthoughanyonetrulypayingattentionshouldhavebeenabletofigureitoutontheirown,isthefactthatBABSwasborninMayberry.Andy,BarneyandOpiewerethere.Ithinkitwasonacool,low60sevening.Herfatherwaswearingalightjacket.

WithBABS,eachskill–verylooselytiedtostandardfantasystats–isgoingtohaveanextremeimpactonyourroster,asignificantimpact,amoderateimpact,ornoneatall.Power,speed,strikeouts,etal–theseareallbuildingblocks.Thedistinctionsbetweenimpactlevelsarebasedinrealskillsanalysisbutinverybroadstrokes.Sowhatwewillbeputtingintoourbalancesheetaredescriptorsofeachplayer'sskills–andlateron,risks–inthesebroadterms.

Wait,no.Sorry,thatdoesn'tworkforme.Let'ssayIhaveachoicebetweenCharlieBlackmonand

StarlingMarte–twospeedyguys.ButBlackmonstole13morebaseslastyear.AreyoutellingmeIcan'trankBlackmonaheadofMarteforspeedpotential?

Fromthe2016edition

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It'sconvenientthatyoupickedthesetwoplayers.BlackmonandMartebothhavesignificantspeedskillsascomparedtotherestoftheplayerpool.Bothhavebattingaverageskillsthatarecomparable.AndbotharecleanontheLiabilitiesside.IntheeyesofBABS(theyareabeautifulshadeofblue),bothplayersareessentiallyinterchangeablecommodities.Draftone,drafttheother.Theoddsthatonewilloutperformtheotherarenotsignificantenoughtoprojectwithanyconfidence. C'mon,really?Really.Youcannottellmewith100percentcertaintythatBlackmonisgoingtostealmorebasesthanMartein2016.YoucanthinkthatBlackmonhasbetterspeedskill,buttherearetoomanyvariablesthatneedtoalignforyoutoguaranteeaprecisevarianceinstolenbaseoutputbetweenthosetwoplayers.IfBlackmonregressesevenalittleandMarteimproves–notunreasonablepossibilities–thenthedifferencebetweenthetwoisinconsequentialandcertainlynotprojectableforyourroster-buildingpurposesonDraftDay.Bottomline–youropinionthatBlackmonisgoingtostealmorebasesthanMarteisheavilysteepedinrecencybias.YoucanputmoneydownthatBlackmonwillstealmorebasesthanDavidOrtiz(okay,prettyobvious),andit'salsoareasonablygoodbetthatBlackmonwillstealmorebasesthanBradMiller…buteventhatisnota100percentslamdunk,nomatterwhattheirrespectiveskillssetslooklikeNOW.(SeewhatIdidthere?)

Ha,ha,funny.SohowdoIdecidewhattopayforthem?IfI'minadraftleagueandtheybothfalltome,Istillneedtodecidewhotopick.DoIflipacoin?

Youcould.Ifyouneedatie-breaker,youcanlookforsomeminorvariableoutsidethebalancesheet–Blackmon'sballpark,Marte'steam,whatever–ifyouneedthecomfortofgivingoneplayeranedge.Butintheend,itwon'tlikelybeenoughtomakeadifferencetoyourteam'ssuccessorfailure.Theerrorbarsaretoowide.Hereisanotherwaytolookatit.Let'ssayyoucan'tgetitoutofyourheadthatBlackmonisabetterplayer.Let'ssaythatsomeoneaheadofyougrabshiminasnakedraftoroutbidsyouinanauction.IfMarteisstillavailable,feelcomfortableknowingthatyou'llhaveanothershotatlandingaBlackmon-esquecommodity.Andifthecostislower,you'vejustgainedsomeprofit.

Idecidedtokeepinthatpassagefromthe2016bookbecauseIlikeshowingoffwhenI'mright:

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2015 2016 AB SB AB SBStarlingMarte 579 30 489 47CharlieBlackmon 614 43 578 17

Butthereweremitigatingcircumstances.Blackmondidn'trunbecausehewashurt.

Therearealwaysmitigatingcircumstances.Playersalwaysgethurt.That'spartoftheinevitableregressionyoualwayshavetoplanfor.So,we'llbedescribingeachplayer'sskillsprofileinbroadtermsontheAssetssideofBABS.TheriskvariableswillbehandledlikewiseontheLiabilitiessideoftheledger.Inthenextchapter,we'llstartprovidingsomestructuretoBABS.Althoughwedon’tcareaboutfigures,you'llseethatshe'sstillprettywellbuilt.Sorry,low-hangingfruit.

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TheBABSProjectChapter4

TheBABSPlayerProfilingSystemThefoundationofBABSisabasicaccountingconcept–thebalancesheet.OntheleftsideareyourAssets;ontherightareyourLiabilities.Forbatters,yourAssetsarePower,SpeedandBattingEffectiveness(whichcanbeusedasaproxyforbattingaverage).Forpitchers,yourassetsarePitchingEffectiveness(apotentialproxyforERAandWHIP),StrikeoutsandSaves.BothsideshavePlayingTimeasanAssetaswell.WhiletheseAssetsarenotdirectcorrelationstoallpossiblefantasy/rotocategories,theydorepresentreasonableproxiesforalmostallofthem.ThemajoritemsontheLiabilitiessideareHealthandExperience,oractually"lackof"each.Forbatters,BattingEffectivenesscanalsobeaLiability;forpitchers,PitchingEffectivenessisthecomparablenegativeskillsoffset.ThereisalsoaMiscellaneouscategoryforminorvariableslikemovingtoanewteam,asignificantballparkchange,oradvancingage.Forthesevariables,youcanneithercountonthemhavinganeffectnorquantifythem,thoughtheirimpactcouldbeconsiderable.ASSETSSkillandopportunityhavealwaysbeenthetwokeyelementstoeveryprojection,andtheyformthefoundationofourAssets.Welookforpositivecontributionsinthesecategories.PlayingtimeItallstartshere,anelementoftheforecastingprocesswithagreatamountofvariability.Assuch,playerswillberatedinBABSbasedonabroadexpectationfortheirpotentialforplayingtime: BATTERS PITCHERSF Full-timer Approx.500+PA Approx.180+IPM Mid-timer Approx.300+PA Approx.100+IP- Part-timer Fewerthan300PA Fewerthan100IPMostreputabletoutsgothroughameticulousprocessoffittingplateappearancesandinningsintotheavailableplayingtimeoneachteam.That'sanadmirableeffortandvitalforaccuratefantasyvaluations.Butlet'sbehonesthere;theonlyplayersforwhomtheseprojectionsareevenclosetobeingontargetarefull-timerswhostayhealthyallseason.Thesearetheonly

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playerswhoachieveacriticalmassofAB/IPsufficientenoughthattheirskillscanbeprojectedwithanypossibilityof"accuracy."Forthoseplayerswhoseplayingtimeprojectionsarearbitrarilydowngradedduetotheexpectationoflosttime,youimmediatelyputintoquestionwhetherthatAB/IPdiscountmightalsocomealongwithaskillsdiscountaswell.Wejustdon'tknowwhichofthefollowingscenarioswilldriveasuppressedplayingtimeprojection:a.Playergetshurt,hitstheDL,noimpactonperformance.b.Playergetshurt,performspoorlyasheplaysthroughinjury,hitstheDL.c.Playergetshurt,hitstheDL,returnslessthanhealthyandperformspoorly.Andofcourse…d.Playerperformspoorly,losesplayingtime.Allfourscenarioswillyielddifferentresults,especiallyifoneoccursinMayandanotheroccursinAugust.Ofthefull-timersintheADPTop300from2009-2016,therewereonlyabout150,onaverage,whostayedhealthyeachyear,andthatincludedabouttwodozenreliefpitchersbroadlydefinedas"full-timers."BeyondtheTop300,thenumberoffull-timersdropssharply.Evenifwecoulddeemthattherewere200-250healthyfull-timers,that'sstilllessthan20percentoftheentireplayerpool.Whenwe'relookingatprojectionsformid-timersandpart-timers,we'remostlythrowingdarts.Withperformancenumbersforanythingunder300PAor100IP,theerrorbarsaresowideastobealmostmeaningless.SoIopttoprojectplayingtimeinbroadchunkswithinwhichwecanaccountforagoodmeasureofvolatility.Therearefull-timers,mid-timers(mostlyplatoontypesand#3/#4/#5starters)andpart-timers.Beyondthat,anyquestforprecisionismostlyawasteoftime.Ifabatterisdefinedasafull-timer,BABScaptureshisplayingtimeifhestayshealthytorackup600ABs,butalsoprovideswiggleroomifanunexpectedDLstintortwoknockshimdownto475AB.Attheendoftheseason,600ABversus475ABmakesadifference,butonDraftDay,wehavenowayofknowingwhereaplayerwillendupwithinthatrange.TheLiabilitiessideofthebalancesheetputsaratingonanydownsidepotentialthatwecanidentifyupfront.Inrealterms,Istoppedpayingmuchattentiontoplayingtimeprojectionsalongtimeago.Ifmaybehalfoftheplayerpopulationisgoingtobeonthedisabledlistatonetimeoranother,plateappearancesandinningsaregoingtobeshiftingconstantly.Ishakemyhead(indisappointment,notderision)whensomeonetellsmethatPlayerXisnotaviablepickbecausehehas"nopathtoplayingtime."Unlesstherearethreeplayersaheadofhimonthedepthchart,I'llneverwriteanyoneoff

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completely.Ifaplayerhasskill,therewillalwaysbeaninjuryorpositionalshiftthatwill"miraculously"openupaspot.That'swhathappenedforAledmysDiazandMaxKeplerin2016.That'swhathappenedforCarlosCorreain2015.That'swhathappenedforMikeTroutin2012.Ineachofthoserespectiveseasons,onlyTroutwasdraftedanyhigherthanNo.479(hewentNo.228).That'swhyyoushouldnotbereluctanttodrafthigh-skilledprospects.Whiletheyremainriskyintermsofperformance,theriskofthemfindingplayingtimecanbefarlower.SkillOntheskillside,playersarenotratedontheirpotentialstatisticaloutput.Idon'tcarewhetherYuDarvishwillpostanERAof2.50,3.00or3.50.Therearetoomanyvariablestoknowwherethatnumberwillland.Instead,playersareratedagainsteachother,becausethat'showitallcomesoutanyway.Darvishcouldposta2.60mark,butthat2.60isfarlessvaluableinaseasonwhereeveryoneandhiswife'scousin'shousekeeperispostingsub-3.00ERAs.Soplayersareratedagainstthepopulationmeanforeachskill:ExtremeImpact PlayersintheTop10%ofthatskillSignificantImpact PlayersintheTop25%ofthatskillModerateImpact PlayersintheTop50%ofthatskillNoprojectableimpact PlayersintheBottom50%ofthatskillHerearethecodeswewilluseforeachplayer:ImpactLevel Power Speed BatEff PitchEff StrikeoutsExtreme P+ S+ A+ E+ K+Significant PW SP AV ER KKModerate p s a e k

ThebestwaytorememberthesenotationsisthatModerateAssetsareinlowercase,SignificantAssetsaretwo-characteruppercaseandExtremeAssetsareuppercasewithaplus(+)sign.Thoseinthebottom50%foreachskillareassignednorating.Theircontributionistypicallynotenoughtosubstantivelymoveateaminthatcategory'sstandings,oratleastnotatalevelthatyoucanproject.Inmixedleagues,theseplayersareusuallyeasilyreplaceable.TheymightbemoreimportantinAL/NL-onlyleagues,butthatdoesnotmakethemanymoreprojectable.You'restillgoingtowanttotargetplayerswithatleastModerateskilltomovetheneedle.Fortheassessmentofeachoftheskillscategories,IreturntomyrootswiththeBaseballForecasterandBaseballHQ.commetrics.Forafullerexplanationofthesegaugesandcompletegranulardataforeveryplayer,thosearetheplacestogo.

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Power:IrelymostlyonExpectedLinearWeightedPowerIndexhere.Thiscombinesweightedlevelsofhard-hitlinedrivesandhardhitflyballsasapercentageofallballsputintoplay.Speed:HereIrelyonStatisticallyScoutedSpeed,whichlooksatrun-scoring,triples,infieldhitsandbodymassindex.Ialsolookateachrunner'strackrecordofhowoftenhe'sbeengivenagreenlightalongwithhisstolenbasesuccessrate.BattingEffectiveness:IuseExpectedBattingAveragehere,whichlooksatabatter'scontactrateandoddsthatabattedballwillfallforahit,whichisaproductofthespeedoftheball,distanceitishitandspeedofthebatter.Whilethiscanbeusedasaproxyforbattingaverage,theskillsmeasuredmakeitmoreofagaugeofaplayer'sunderlying"hittool."OfalltheoffensiveskillsthatBABScaptures,onethattheabovecategoriesfallsshortonisonbaseaverage,ormorespecifically,thebatter'sabilitytotakeawalk.SoBABSaddsanindicatorforhittersmoreadeptatdrawingwalksandanotherforthosewhohavetheplatepatienceofahyperactiveflea.Forplayerswithanhistoricalwalkrateofatleast10percent,therewillbeanasterisk“*”signalongwiththeirAVrating.Youwillseeplayerswith“A+*”(that’sthebest),"AV*"and“a*”.Youwillalsoseehitterswithjusta“*”inthatcolumn;thesehaveabelowaverage“hittool”butstillmanagetowalkatleast10percentofthetime.(ThefleaswillbediscussedunderLiabilities.)PitchingEffectiveness:HereIuseExpectedEarnedRunAverage,whichapproximatesERAwithsituation-independent,skills-basedmetrics,likestrikeouts,walksandgroundballs.ThisissimilartoxFIP(FieldingIndependentPitching).Similartobatters,thisisusedtomeasureapitcher's"pitchingtool."Strikeouts:Icombineseveralmetricsforthisassessment–strikeoutrate,swingingstrikerateandfirstpitchstrikerate(whichcorrelatesmorewithwalksbutprovidessomenicecolor).TheAssetssectionofthepitcherbalancesheetalsohasacolumnforSaves.Thisisanopportunity-drivenstatisticbutcanbepareddowntotwolevels,similartowhatwedoinMayberry:

Significant SV Likelytoget30+savesModerate sv- Likelytoget10-29saves

Theseseemlikewideranges–okay,theyare–butweneedtocastawidenetinthiscategory.TheSignificantsavessourcesareprettymuchguaranteedafrontlineshotat9thinningwork.ThearmsclassifiedasModerateallhavesomeriskassociatedwiththem,fromuncertainbullpendepthchartstospottytrackrecordsinaclosingrole.Byfilteringoutanyoneprojectedforfewerthan10saves,we'reessentially

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sayingthatthoseguysarenotprojectableenough.Myadviceisalwaystospeculateonreliefpitcherskillsandbegratefulifyoubackintosaves.

I'mnotsureIcompletelyunderstandwhatclassifiessomeonewithP+versusPWversusp.Isthereanumber?Ihaveoftenusedthe20-80scoutingscalewhichtendstotranslatetocountingstats.IsthereaBABSbenchmarknumber?ItlookstomelikeP+=30+HR,PW=25-29,p=somewherearound15-24?

No.Theratingsdonotcorrelatetocountingstats–that’sthewholepointofthesystem.Countingstatsarefaulty.Theratingscorrelatetotieredskilllevelsandrepresenteachplayer'sunderlyingtalentregardlessofopportunityforplayingtime,levelofexperienceorinjuryhistory.ThelattertwovariablesareaccountedforontheLiabilitiessideofthebalancesheet.What'smore,theseratingsarenotprojections.Theyaregaugesofeachplayer'shistoricalmeasurableskill.Whenwestartplanningforthenewseason,wemaydrawsomeconclusionsabouthowaplayermayprogressorregress,butwe'llneverattachanumbertothoseconclusions.You'llfindthat,overtime,mostplayersdohaveamoretrackableskillsprogressionthantheirstatisticswouldleadyoutobelieve.Anymarkedchangesinatrendwilleitherbesupportablebyachangeinexpectation,ormorelikelyjustregress.Forinstance,let'ssayabattershowsthefollowingpowertrend: Year BABS 1 p

2 p3 PW4 P+5 PW

ThisplayertookastepupinpowerinyearNo.3andNo.4,thenregressedinyearNo.5.Ananalysisofhismostrecentbalancesheetmightrevealaninjurysituation,orachangeinleagues,orsomevariablethatmighthavecontributedtotheregression.GoingintoyearNo.6,wemightratethisbatteraseitherPWorP+dependingupontheextentthatthosevariablesmightaffecthisfutureperformance.Ifhewashurtandisexpectedtobehealthy,wemightreturnhimtoP+,whichisaskilllevelhehasshowntopossess.Ifthenegativevariableswilllikelycontinuetobeafactor,wemightkeephimatPW.Or,wemightreturnhimtoP+ashisnaturalskilllevelandreflectthedownsideontheLiabilitiessideofhisbalancesheet.Thereareseveralwaystoplayit,butyou'llnotethatwe'restillworkingwithinaverybroadrangeofoutcomes.Andwe'renotlimitingthoseoutcomestoastatisticalprojectionofexactly34homeruns.Oreven30-35HRs.Becausewejustdon'tknowwherethatnumberwillendup.

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MiscellaneousThesecategoriesareforanypositivevariablesthatmighthavealegitimateimpactandarenotcapturedelsewhere.Guesswhatthekeywordisinthatlastsentence? Legitimate?Positive?Not?Close.It's"might."Thesearevariablesthatneedtobeonourradar.Mostanalystswillbuildthemintotheirstatisticalprojection.Iprefertojustidentifythemandletyouknowtheymightbeafactor.Ornot.It'syourcallhowimportanttheyare.Thereareonlyacoupleofitemsthatareimportantenoughtoincludehere:Pk PositiveparkeffectAsnotedinChapter2,parkdimensionsmighthaveanimpactonoutput,butchangesareneitherguaranteednorcanbeabsolutelyattributabletoaparticularchangeinvenue.Theonlyplayerswhowillbenotedatallarethosemovingtooneofthemoreextremehitterparksfromoneofthemorepitcher-friendlyparks.Thelistofthesehitterandpitcherparkstendstoshiftovertime,butyoucanusuallyfindCoorsFieldonthehitterlist.Thereareusuallynomorethanahalfdozenparksoneitherlist.Anymovementbetweenotherballparksisignored.AlwaysrememberTheNelsonCruzExperience–hiscounterintuitiveimprovementmovingfromBaltimoretoSeattlein2015–asevidencethatthisisnotfoolproof.Andnotethateachplayer’scurrentballparkisalreadybakedintotheirskillsratings.Theballparkratingonlycomesintoplaywhenaplayerchangesteams,andonlyforthemostextremeballparkchanges.Rg PositiveregressionThereareafewplayerswhohadreallybadperformanceslastyear,sometimesdrivenbynomorethanrandomstatisticalvolatility.Oddsare"lastyear'sbums"mightseesomereboundjustbyvirtueoftheplanetsrealigning.Inanycase,it'simportanttoidentifythembecausethisisoneofourfewopportunitiestoengageinafullfrontalassaultagainstrecencybias.LIABILITIESIt'sgreattorosterabunchofplayerswhoyouhopewillputupbigstats.Butwhatseparatesthewinnersfromthelosersistheabilitytobuildriskintotheprocess.Everyplayerprovidescertainassetsbutmanyalsohaveauniquesetofliabilitiesthatinfluencetheirpotentialtoprovideafairreturnonyourinvestment.TherearetwotypesofriskfactorscapturedbyBABS–MajorLiabilitiesandMinorLiabilities.HerearetheratingsweuseontheDarkSideofBABS(nostormtroopersallowed).

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MajorLiabilitiesNegativeSkill:ThecoreratiocategoriesinRotisseriearebattingaverageandERA/WHIP,andforthese,abadplayercandogreatdamage.So,ratherthanprovideanegativeratingontheassetside,wehaveacolumnontheDarkSideforplayerswiththeredlightsabers.

-AV Bottom25%ofbattingeffectivenessskill-ER Bottom25%ofpitchingeffectivenessskill

Wealsoadda“-”ontheLiabilitiessideforthosehitterswhowalklessthan5percentofthetime.Injuries:Everyyear,thisistheonevariablethatwreakshavocwithourchanceatsuccess.From2012-2016,disabledliststaysrangedbetween25,000andover31,000days,sothisisnosmallvariable.ItakeadifferentapproachtoinjurieswithBABS.Wealreadyknowupfrontthatupwardsof50percentofthetop-rankedplayersaregoingtospendsometimeontheDL.Wecannotprojectwhichplayersaregoingtopulluplameatanytime,sowehavetoattachsomeinjuryrisktoprettymucheveryone.

Butwhatabouttheoneswhocomeintocampproclaimingthattheyareinthebestshapeinyears?

You'refunny.Aplayerstatingthathefeelshealthy–duringspringtraining,aftercomingofftheDL,whenever–isnotthesamethingastherebeingnoinjuryrisk.Assuch,I'vesetastartingpointforthehealthofeachplayer.Everyonehasaminimumbaselineofa25%chancetospendsometimeontheDL.Everyone.Tothat,I'lladdgreateroddstothoseplayerswithaninjuryhistory(basedondaysspentontheDLoverthepasttwoyears)orcurrenthealthconcerns.Thecodeslooklikethis:INJ Playerswhospentmorethan50daysontheDLinthemostrecentseason,spentmorethan30daysontheDLineachoftwoconsecutiveseasons,orarecurrentlyhurtwithuncertainornegativeprognosisfortheupcomingseason.Igiveover50%oddsthattheywillmisssignificanttimethisyear.inj- Playerswhospentmorethan20daysontheDLinthemostrecentseasonorarecurrentlyhurtwithapositiveprognosisfortheupcomingseason.Igivethem26-50%oddsofmissingsignificanttime.

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Iclassify"significanttime"asenoughmissedgamesthatithurts.IfMikePelfreygoesdownfortwoweekswithahangnailandyoureplacehimwithBrettOberholtzer,that'snotsignificant.Andifthisisarealmoveyouneedtomake,youhavealotmoreproblemsthanworryingaboutinjuries.Experience:Okay,I'llsayit–MikeTroutisagod.Heisamongasmallclassofplayerswhohitthegroundrunninguponpromotionandneverletup.Butmostplayersdon'tfollowthispath.PatrickDavitt'sresearchhasshownthathittersneedatleast800plateappearancestoestablishabaseline,orenoughexperiencefromwhichwecanlegitimatelyprojectfurthergrowth.Those800PAscouldmeanabigrookieyearandasophomoreslump,orapedestrianfirstseasonfollowedbyagrowthyear,ortwoconsistentyears.Butthepercentageplayistoexpectsomevolatilityuntilthatbaselineisset.Soasmuchaswe'rereadytoanointthisyear'scan'tmissprospectasthenextfirst-ballotHallofFamer,thereisrisk,andweneedtoaccountforthat.I'vedecidedtoerronthesideofcautionandincreasethebenchmarkslightly.Onthebalancesheet,we'llidentifytheyoungplayersassuch: Bat SP RP PA IP IP

EX <onefullseasonofMLBexperience 500 150 75e <twofullseasonsofMLBexperience 1,000 300 150

About1,000plateappearancesintheMajors–twofullseasons–isagoodpointtodeterminelegitimacyonthebattingside.Inassigningratings,Iexercisesomelatitudehere,oftengivingapasstosomeoutwardlyestablishedplayerswhohavePAsinthe900s.It'salittlemorefuzzywithpitchers,butwegowith150/300inningsforstarters.Forrelievers,weuse75and150innings.Essentially,anyonewhogetsan"EX"oran"e"isnotyetafullyformedentity.Thebiggestriskforus,quitefrankly,isnotknowingwhattheirtruebaselineis.SoanyonewithExperienceriskpotentiallyhasahugeerrorbararoundtheirpotentialperformancestats.Andyes,thatmeanstheycouldalsobemuchbetterthanweexpect,butit'snotsomethingwecanplanon,soit'saLiability.Finally,givenmyopinionaboutage,Idon’tgiveaflyingwhoopwhetheraplayerreachestheseplayingtimethresholdsatage24,or27,or31.ExperienceisexperienceattheMajorLeaguelevel,regardlessofage.

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MinorLiabilitiesThesearethemiscellaneousnegativevariablesthatcouldhaveanimpact,mightnot,probablywon'tbutcan,andaredefinitelynotquantifiableunlesstheyare.That'saboutasfirmastanceasI'mwillingtotake.Butalloftheseneedtobeonourradarbecause,ifBartoloColonpostsa5.50ERAthiscomingseason,assuminghe'sstillplayingwhenyoureadthis–ifhe'sunder50,it'sareasonablebet–weneedtobeabletocomebacktoBABSandsay,"Aha!He'sold!"

YoushouldreallychangetheheadingforthissectionfromMiscellaneoustoRationalizations.

Okay,I'llgiveyouthat.Anyofthesecouldbebad,goodorhavenoeffect:Pk NegativeparkeffectAsontheAssetside,wecanneitherguaranteenorabsolutelyattributeperformancechangestoparkdimensions.IfNolanArenadowastradedtoSanDiego,hewouldqualifyforthiscode,butyou'dthinksomeonewithhisskillwouldbeabletohitreasonablywellanywhere.Sotakeitforwhatit'sworth.Nw NewteamThisgoesbeyondparkeffects.Manyplayershaveanadjustmentperiodwhengoingtoanewteam,andespeciallyanewleague.Someanalyststendtogivethismoreweightthanothers,butit'sjustanothervariablethatmighthaveanimpact.OnlythoseplayerswithsomebaselineofMLBperformancearenoted.Ag AdvancingageOnceaplayerhits36,anythingcanhappen.Somebattersmanagetohangonforlonger;somepitchersfaceasteepcliffat38.Allareessentiallygeezersatthispoint.Nomatterhowmanyartificialsupplementssomeofthemmightbetakingtowardoffthefearofprematureretirement,Iwon'tbeanywherenearthebiddingonanyplayerspushing40.Rg NegativeregressionAsmuchaswewanttobelievethatlastyear'sbreakoutperformerscansustaintheirnumbers,theoddsarestackedagainstthem.Playersnotedherearethosewhopostedperformancessofarabovetheirhistoricallevelslastyearthatit'stoughtojustifytheirsustainability.Studsin2015likeZackGreinke,DallasKeuchelandevenJakeArrietareceived"Rg"marks,whichwereeasilyprophetic.Ialsousethiscodeforplayerswhosetrackrecordhasbeenhistoricallyvolatile,atleastfromtheperspectiveoftheirsurfacestats.SoChrisDavisgotnickedherein2016,despitetherecencybiasthatpushedhimupthedraftboards.Butdidwe

46

reallyknowwhetherwewouldseethe45-.260versionorthe25-.200version?Everyonewasbiddingontheformer;turnsoutwesawthelatter.Beyondthat,feelfreetoaddanyothermiscellaneousLiabilitiesasyouseefit.Ifyou'reworriedthatatankingteamwilltradeakeyplayer,thenjotanoteonthedarksideoftheledger.Ifyou'rehopingthatoneofthestarsonyouropponent'skeeperlistissuspendedforPEDs,feelfreetodinghimheretoo.Isupposethatalsomeansyoucanchangeanyoftheratings,oneithersideofBABS.ThisisyourtoolandIhavenowayofknowingwhattheheckyou'redoinganyway.I'llstartgettingintothebalancingofassetsandliabilitiesinthenextchapter,butthereisbasicpointtoremember:Themoreaplayerislackingonthehealthandexperiencescales,andthemoreofthesemiscellaneousliabilitieshehas,thegreatertheriskofhimfallingshortofrealizinghisassets.Ithinkthatgoeswithoutsaying,butIsaiditanywaybecause…thisismybook.Butit’syourtool.

Hmm,Idunno.Itseemskindasimplisticandbasedmoreonopinionthanfact.Simplistic?Well,it'ssimple,forsure.That'sthegoal,tokeepitsimplebutstructured.However,thefoundationisstillbasedinrealdata.TheAssetandLiabilitycategoriesarealldrivenbydata;theyarejustsortedintobroadtiers.Thesecondarycategoriesaremorecontextualbutnolessdrivenbyfact. Sohowdoesitwork,inpractice?Readon.

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TheBABSProjectChapter5

AnalyzingthePlayerPoolMostofuswilltakealookattheplayerpoolandseeamassivecollectionofhundreds–eventhousands–ofplayers.Theprospectofhavingtoanalyze,project,valueandranktheseplayersisincrediblydaunting.It'snevermadealotofsensetome.HowcanyoupreciselysaythatPlayerAisbetterthanPlayerBwhoisbetterthanPlayerC?Sure,ClaytonKershawisbetterthanClaytonRichard,butattheendoftheseason,doesitmatterwhetherIownedKinslerorKipnis?Probablynot.Butreally,howdoyoudecidewhetherDeeGordonwillbemorevaluabletoyourrosterthanGiancarloStanton?Andhowdoyouaccomplishthattaskwhenyoudon'treallyknowwhateitherplayerisgoingtodothisyear?Noteasy.Forstarters,wecanlookateachsub-groupofplayersandgetasenseofwherevaluelies,AssetbyAsset,andLiabilitybyLiability.Itstartswithonebasicstatement:Playerswiththesameassetratingsareprettymuchinterchangeable.Thisisanimportantpoint.Wespendsomuchtimetryingtofinddifferencesbetweenplayersinordertorankthemthatweignorethefactthatmostofthemactuallyhaveverysimilarskillssets.Yes,thenumberstheyputupmightbeallovertheboardbutthat'sa"numbers'problem,notaskillsproblem.Playersaremorealikethantheyaredifferent.Notallsimilarly-skilledplayersareexactlythesame,however.SomewillhavemoreLiabilities.Inyourroster-planningprocess,you'llbemakingdecisionsastohowmuchriskyou'dbewillingtotolerate. Anexample,please?Okay.Inprettymuchevery2016fantasyleague,BusterPoseygotdraftedbeforeJonathanLucroy.IntheNationalFantasyBaseballChampionship(NFBC),Posey'sADPwasNo.19whileLucroy'swaswaydownatNo.100.ThiswaslikelydrivenbytheirrelativehistoricalperformancesandLucroy'sspottyinjuryhistory.Buthere'sthething…onabroadskillsbasis,bothhadessentiallythesameAssets.

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YoucouldnotmaketheargumentthatPoseywasbettersincehewasa.300hitterbecauseLucroyhaddemonstratedthatskillinthepastaswell.YoucouldnotmaketheargumentthatPoseywasonacontendingteambecauseI'vealreadydiscountedthatgeneralvariable…andLucroyendeduponacontenderin2016anyway.So,inevaluatingtheirrespectiveassets,BABSgavethemidenticalratings.Bothhadmoderatepower"p"andsignificantbattingeffectiveness"AV".We'llbeginnotatingtheseas(p,AV).AndBABSdidratethembothas(p,AV)goingintothe2016season.AllplayerswhopossessthesameAssetratingarepartofan"AssetGroup."PoseyandLucroywerebothpartofthe(p,AV)AssetGroup,aswerenineotherplayersin2016.Butplayerscannotbeevaluatedbasedontheirassetsalone.LucroyalsoownedapotentiallymajorLiability–hishealthtrackrecord.Ifyouhadtochoosebetweenthetwo,youmighthaveoptedforPoseybasedonhiscleanLiabilityrecordalone.ButLucroy'spotentialacquisitioncostwasmuchlowerandifyouwerewillingtobuildhisinjuryriskintoyourBABSplanning–we'lltalkaboutriskbudgetsshortly–youcouldhaveendedupwithahugebargain.Rank 2016 AB HR RBI R SB Avg R$19 BusterPosey 539 14 80 82 6 .288 $19 100 JonathanLucroy 490 24 81 67 5 .292 $19Asfarasnotation,ifthereareLiabilities,theywillbeshownas:(p,AV|INJ).Youhavefullcontroloverthosedecisions.BABSlaysoutallthefactsinfrontofyou.

Hmm.Whatotherplayersaremore"interchangeable"thanwe'dnormallyperceive?

Tonsofthem.Hereareafewprofitopportunitiesyoucouldhavehadin2016: Ifyoumissedouton YoucouldhavehadAssetGroup #inGrp Player ADP Player ADP(P+,AV*) 8 JoshDonaldson 5 DavidOrtiz 111(PW,AV*) 4 AnthonyRizzo 10 FreddieFreeman 81(ER,KK) 12 JakeArrieta 20 ColeHamels 76Yes,ifyoumissedoutonanyoftheearlier-draftedplayers,therewasstillacomparablecommodityseveralroundslater.Thesewereallveryrealprofitopportunities. It'sinterestingthatthereweresomanypitchersinthat(ER,KK)group.ThereareseveralAssetGroupswithevenmoreplayers.Butyes,pitcherstendtoflocktogether.Withfewerrelevantcountingstats,theirmeasurablevaluerestsin

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ratiogauges–primarilyERA–thathavewidererrorbarsthanjustaboutanyothermetric.ERAswillalwaysbevolatilesothebestwecandoisfocusontheskills.Whenyouputthoseskillsintobuckets,you'llfindthatmostpitchersarenotmuchdifferentfromoneanother.What'smore,onceyougetbelowacertainskillsthreshold,ithardlymattersatallwhoyouputonyourroster.Youcantrytofindfactorsthatsetindividualpitchersapart,butvirtuallynoneofitwillbeprojectableintheend.Interchangeabilityisevenmoreprevalentwithreliefpitchers.Whiletherearesomewhoseskillsdostandoutabovetheothers,youaredraftingtheseplayersforsaves,andthatisanunpredictable,situationalstat.Thetopsavesleadersaredifferenteveryyear,soyoushouldnotpayapremiumformostofthearmsinyourbullpen.200wordsaboutpositionscarcityTherearemanyopinionsaboutthis.Someanalystsliveanddiebyit.Othersuseitonlyincertainsituations.BABSsaysthatpositionalscarcitywouldonlymatterifwecouldreallyprojecttheplayersatthebottomoftheplayerpool.Thenumbersaresosmallandvariableinthoselaterrounds–the$1end-game–thatithardlymatters.Thedifferencebetweenthelastcatcherorsay,thelastoutfielder–whichiswhatthepositionalscarcityreachisallabout–isnotsufficientlyprojectabletojustifythenumbersyougiveupatthetop.Forinstance,mostdraftersgrabbedBusterPoseyearlyoratapremiumbecauseoftheshallowcatcherpoolatthebottom.IfPoseywasanoutfielder,hemightbedraftedafewroundslater,orafewdollarscheaper.Butwhygiveupthepotentialtodraftbetternumbersatthetopofthedraftboard?Ifyou'resoworriedaboutit,draftyourlastcatcheraroundtwoearlier,orspend$3insteadof$1.Thepremiumyou'dpaythenwilllikelybelessthanthepremiumpaidinearlierrounds,andthevariabilityinthestatsthatlateinthedraftmakethosepicksfarlessprojectableanyway.

Okay,soonceyousortalltheplayersintoAssetGroups,doyouthenrankthegroups?

Exactly.ThereisarudimentarysystemthatI'vedevelopedtoproviderelativevaluetoeachAssetandLiabilitycategory.ThisissomethingthatItinkerwithconstantlybecauseitmoveswiththedistributionofskillandriskineachseason.SoIwouldstronglyencourageyounottoplaceyourfaithintheblack-or-whitenessofanyBABSrankinglist.TheirpurposehereisjusttoallowustoprovidearoughrankingoftheAssetGroups.Lookingstrictlyatthemajorassets–power,battingeffectiveness,pitchingeffectiveness,strikeoutsandplayingtime–hereishowIwouldrankthegroups,toptobottom.Obviously,addingspeed,theminorcategoriesandthenegativeimpactof

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Liabilitieschangeseverything.Butthisatleastgivesyouageneralsenseofrelativeassetstrength.BATTERSPlayingtime Power BattEff F P+ A+

F P+ AVF PW A+M P+ A+F P+ aF PW AVF p A+M P+ AVM PW A+F PW aF p AVM P+ aM PW AVM p A+F p aM PW aM p AVM p a

PITCHERSPlayingtime PitchEff Strikeouts F E+ K+

F E+ KKF ER K+F E+ kF ER KKF e K+M E+ K+F ER kF e KKM E+ KKM ER K+F e kM E+ kM ER KKM e K+M ER kM e KKM e kCanyouexplainwhythe(p,AV)groupisrankedlowerthanthe(PW,a)group?

Look,theyarebothreallyclose.Don’tgethunguponwhetheranycloselyrankedAssetGroupsshouldberearranged.Intheearlystagesofthedraft(whichiswhenthoseplayerswouldappear),you’rejustlookingforthebestfitsforyourrosterandthebest“buys”ascomparedtothemarketplace.Therankingsarejustroughapproximationsofvalue.

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Okay,thencanyouexplainalittlebitmoreabouthowyoucameupwiththeserankings?

BABSassignseachplayertotiersbasedon:A.ExpectedplayingtimePlayingtimesetstheinitialbaselineforrankingpurposes.Ingeneral,playersexpectedtogetfull-timeopportunitiesaregoingtoberankedhigherthanbetter-skilledplayerswithlesseropportunity.Butit'snotabsolute,asyoucanseefromtheabovelists.B.PrimaryassetswithminimalriskTheplayersintheaboveAssetGroupswillbelistedfirst.TheywillprovidebenefittoyourteaminthemostimportantcategoriesandpossessthefewestLiabilities.C.SecondaryassetswithincreasingriskStandoutsinsecondaryskillswillbefilteredintothelistsatthispoint,alongwithplayerswhopossessmoredownsideinhealthandexperience.D.DecreasingassetswithincreasingriskEverythingscalesdownfromhere.Atsomepoint,youwillbefacedwithgroupsofplayerswithbelowaverageassets(andthus,noratings)andyou'llbechoosingplayersbasedonthosewiththefewestLiabilities.BABShandlesthedetailsforyouwhenshegeneratesherankingreportsandcheatsheets.ThecompletelistsforthecurrentseasoncanbefoundatRonShandler.com.

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TheBABSProjectChapter6

DraftPlanningThereisapodcastonFreakonomicsRadiocalled"TheCheeseburgerDiet."ThisisthestoryofaLouisville,Kentuckyhousewifewhoembarkedonayear-longprojecttorateover100localburgerjointsinhercity.Shedecidedtodevotetwodaysperweektoadinnerofcheeseburgersandfries,andthencrownachampionattheendof52weeks.However,sherecognizedthatthisjourneymighthaveanadverseeffectonherweightandcholesterollevels,soshepaidspecialattentiontoherdietandactivitiesduringallthosenon-burgerdays.Attheendoftheyear,shehadgainednoweightandsawonlyaminorchangeinhercholesterollevels,butfoundthattheextraeffort–whichshewouldnothaveundertakenotherwise–hadpushedhertowardsahealthierlifestyleoverall.Win-win.Whenwedothingsthatarebadforus,we'llsubconsciouslytrytoengageinsomecompensatingbehaviortodulltheeffectsofthenegative.Weallprobablydothattosomesmallextentinassemblingourfantasyteams.Ifwedraftaninjury-pronepitcher,wemightmakeaspecialefforttostockuponhealthierarms,oratleastavoidotherswithhealthissues.Butit'snottypicallysomethingthatweconsideradeliberatepartofthedraftingprocess.Itneedstobe.Thinkabouttherecordkeepingwedoduringadraft.Mostofusprobablyjustaddourdraftedplayerstoanemptyrostersheet.Ifweareusingalaptop,weprobablyhaveaspreadsheetorsoftwareprogramthatdisplaysourteam'sprojectedbottomlinestats,maybecomparedtotargetsthatwe'veset.Wemightevenseeprojectedin-processstandingsforalltheteamsinourleague(awonderfullypointlessexercise).Thisisalldrivenbyourinaccurateprojections.Giventhattheseprojectionsattempttoincorporatebothskillandriskfactorsintothestatsthemselves,theendresultisonebigmess.What'smore,it'saone-dimensionalviewofourplayersandourteam,andthat'sjustnotgoodenough.BABSprovidesatwodimensionalviewofeveryplayer,andyourteam.ItoffersavisualrepresentationofyourrosterthatshowsushowmuchriskweareincurringalongsideourAssets.Takealook:

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ASSETS

LIABILITIES

BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg

Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ca

ca

1b

3b

ci

2b

ss

mi

Trout of LAA F P+ s AV*

of

of

of

of

ut

PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg

Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg sp

sp

sp

sp

sp

p

p

rp

rp

Yourlegend:ASSETSBATTERS PITCHERSPT Playingtime PT PlayingtimePw Powerrating Er PitchingeffectivenessratingSp Speedrating K StrikeoutsratingAv Battingeffectivenessrating Sv SavesratingPk PositiveballparkimpactRg PositiveregressionLIABILITIESAv/Er Batting/PitchingeffectivenessdownsideriskInj InjuryriskEx ExperienceriskPk NegativeballparkimpactAg Age

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Rg NegativeregressionThisisabalancesheet,butit'salsoa"pencilgame."TheobjectistofillinasmanyboxesaspossibleontheAssetssidewhilefillinginasfewboxesaspossibleontheLiabilitiesSide. Thisisstartingtosoundjuvenile.Simple,butstructured.Remember?Obviously,youdon'thavetousepaperandpencil;youcandothisallinaspreadsheet.I'llbeprovidinglinkstothetemplatesintheAppendix.Andit'snotjustfillingboxes.Therearealsosomegoals. Targets?Exactly.Basedonthedistributionofplayingtimeandskillwithinyourleague'sdraftableplayerpopulation,wecandeterminehowmanyunits–orboxes–areneededtoassembleacompetitiveteam. You'relosingmeagain.Okay,let'stakeastepbackandstartfromthebeginning.DraftingplayingtimeTheprocessofplanningoutyourrosterstartswithplayingtime.Thegoalinanyfantasydraftistorosterplayerswhowillgiveyouthemostplateappearancesandinningsinordertomaximizethepotentialforcountingstats.Ideally,you'dlovetohaveafull-timeregular,productiveplayeroccupyeveryrosterspotforthewholeseason.Ofcourse,whilethat'sanadmirablegoal,it'sneverattainable.Injuriesarethebiggestobstacletoachievingfullproductivityoutofyourdraftroster.In12-teamAL/NL-onlyleagues,it'sdarnnearimpossibletofillall23spotswithfull-timeplayers;therearejustnotenoughofthem.Butthatshouldnotstopusfromsettingsomereasonablegoals. Okay,Igetthat.Buthowdoesthisrelatetomyleagues?Herearetheactualnumbers.Iwillbetalkingintermsofthethreemostcommonleaguesizes–15-teammixed,12-teammixedand12teamAL/NL-only–withstandard23-manrosters(14batters,9pitchers).Ifyourleaguehasadifferentnumberofteamsorplayerpoolpenetration,youcaneasilypro-ratethetargetsbasedonyourownleagueconfiguration.It'sjustmath.

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Forbatters,onaverage:Ina12-teammixedleague,youshouldbeabletofilleverybatterspotwithafull-timer.Infact,agood15percentofyourfreeagentpoolwillstillhavefull-timers.Ina15-teammixedleague,youshouldbeabletofill92percentofyouractiverosterspotswithfull-timers.That's13ofyour14batterspots.Ina12-teamAL/NL-onlyleague,youshouldbeabletofill57percentofyouractiverosterspotswithfull-timers.That's8ofyour14batterspots.Ifyouthinkaboutit,you'reusuallyabletodraftfull-timersat1B,2B,3B,SS,andfourofyouroutfielders.Everyoneelseisusuallyaplatoon/part-timerorplayingtimespeculation.Forpitchers,onaverage:Ina12-teammixedleague,therearemorethanenoughstartingpitchers(minimum120IP)tofillyourcomplete9-manstaff,shouldyouchoose.Thereareenoughfront-line180-inningstartingpitchersforeveryteamtodraftfiveofthem.Youcouldfillyourcompletestaffwithstartersina15-teammixedleagueaswell.Thereareenough180-inningstartingpitchersforeveryteamtodraftfourofthem.Ina12-teamAL/NL-onlyleague,thereareonlyenoughstartingpitcherstofillsixspotsoneachteam.Ifyou'retargeting180-inningstarters,thereareonlyenoughfor2-3spotsperteam.Therearetypicallyupwardsaround50relieversprojectedtohaveasignificantpieceofthesavespuzzleinanygivenyear.In12-teamand15-teammixedleagues,everyteamshouldbeabletorosterthreepotentialclosers.Ina12-teamAL/NL-onlyleague,allteamsshouldbeabletorostertwoofthem.Needlesstosay,ifyoufocusonlyonthesurerbets,theavailabilitygetsmuchmorescarce.Theseareaverages,butfromagoal-settingperspective,theyarealsominimums.Ideally,you'dwanttoexceedasmanyoftheseaspossibletogiveyourselfanedge,butplayingtimeisascarcecommodityandeveryonewillbescratchingandclawingforasmanyregularsaspossible.Sothisisoneareawherejustachievingtheminimumsmightneedtobeenough.Onceyouhaveasolidfoundationontheplayingtimeside,youcanfocusyoureffortsofexceedingtheaveragesontheskillsside.You'llfindmoreopportunitiesthereanyway.AnotherTrueLifeStory:"Onceuponatime(inthemid-2000s),therewasafantasywriternamedJasonGrey.Hewasoneofthebestfantasyplayersintheland,winningmultipletitlesandalwayscontendingintheToutWars-ALnationalexpertsleague.Jason'sedgewas

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simple,butbrilliant–he'dconstantlydraftmoreplayingtimethananyoneelse.Thecaliberofplayerdraftedalmostdidn'tmatterbecauseevenmediocreregularsstoodtocontributeintheRunsandRBIcategories.Jasonwouldroutinelygrab10-12full-timebattersandoverwhelmtheoppositionincountingstats.Ofcourse,everyoneelseeventuallycaughtonandOmarInfantestartedgettingbiduptodouble-digits.Butforafewshortyears,Jasonwasasuperstar.ThenhegothiredbyaMajorLeagueballclubsoitdidn'tmatteranymoreandhelivedhappilyeverafter.Theend."Themoralofthestoryis,"Evenablindsquirrelwillfindanoccasionalnut."No,no,wealllikeJason.Therealmoral:"Ifyoucangrabanedgeinplayingtime,don'tpassitup."Thisisespeciallytrueonoffense.It'sdifferentforpitching.Stockpilinginningsisnotalwaysasmarttactic.IfyoudigaholeinERAorWHIP,thosearetoughertodigoutofwithtoomanyinningsonthebooks.Theseareyourminimumgoals,summarized.I'dshootforthe180+IPgoalsforstartingpitchersbutbeflexiblewiththerestofyourstaff,especiallyifit'sthechoicebetweeninningsandskill.

Minimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLFull-timebatters 14 13 8Allstartingpitchers 6 7 6

180+IPSPs 5 4 2Closers 3 2 1

DraftingskillandriskWealreadyknowthatanyplayerwhoratesintheupperhalfofaparticularskillisgoingtohaveaBABSrating.Abatterwithaboveaveragepowerwillgetap,PWorP+,dependinguponhowmuchaboveaverageheis.Thosewith"p"arejustabovethemean;thosewith"PW"and"P+"arehigheronthescale.Gotthatsofar? Ithinkso.However,skillisnotevenlydistributedacrosstheplayerpopulation,soyouhavetosetdifferenttargetsforeachskill.Forinstance,therearefewerplayerswhohaveaboveaveragespeed,soyouhavetopaymoreattentiontohowyoudraftstolenbases.

Wait.Ithoughtaveragemeantthattherewouldbejustasmanyplayersaboveasbelow.

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Notnecessarily.TheskillsofguyslikeDeeGordonandBillyHamiltonaresofarabovethemeanthattheydriveuptheaverage.Thatreducesthenumberofplayerswhoactuallyhave"aboveaverage"skill.Statedanotherway,let'ssaywedecidethatthemeasurablerangeofbattingaverage,forsimplicity'ssake,isfrom.200to.300.Thetop10%wouldbethoseplayerswhobatbetween.290and.300.Thenanynumberofplayersmightfitwithinthatrange.Someoftheskillsareveryscarce.YoushouldhavelittleproblemrosteringpitcherswithanaboveaverageERAbutifyourplanistotargetoneofbaseball'selitearms(E+),youareprobablygoingtohavetojumpinearlyorpayalot.Onlyabouttwopercentofpitchersownthatextremeskill.Butit'sgoodtoplanforacquiringatleastsomeextremeskilledplayers,inanycategory.Themoreofthemyoucangrab,themoreflexibilityyou'llhavelateronifyouendupwithsomeholesinyourroster.I'lldemonstratethatinaminute.Atminimum,youwanttorosteratleastaverageskillineachcategory:BABSAssetMinimumTargets(Assumingastandardrosterwith14battersand9pitchers.)

NUMBEROFPLAYERSAssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLPower 14 14 9Speed 8 7 4BattingEffectiveness 14 14 9

Onthesurface,thislooksprettystraightforwarduntilyourecognizethattheseskillsarenotdistributedevenlyamongallpositions.Inparticular,itwouldbenicetorostereightspeedstersina12-teammixedleagueifnotforthefactthatcatchersandmostcornerinfieldersdon'trun.Ifstolenbasesremainascarcecommodityastheywerein2016,youcanseehowdifficultitwouldbetomeetthesetargets.Thesolutionisjusttodothebestthatyoucan.Thisonlyexacerbatestheneedtomakesureyoudraftenoughspeed.Anyplayerwitha(S+)ratingisagod,asyou'llseeinafewparagraphs.

NUMBEROFPLAYERSAssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLPitchingEffectiveness 9 9 9Strikeouts 9 9 9

Itisinterestingthatthereismorethanenoughgoodpitchingforallteamsinallleaguestofieldasolid-skilledstaff.Buttheproblemisthatmanyofthoseplayersarerelievers.Soifyouwerewillingtoforegoinningsforskill,youshouldhavenoproblemmaximizingoutyourpitchingcategories.

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Ofcourse,that'snothowmostofusplaythegame.Ifweweretorestatetheseminimumsforstartingpitchersonly,thechartwouldlooklikethis:

AssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLPitchingEffectiveness 7 6 4Strikeouts 7 6 4

Nowitbecomesabitmoreofachallenge.InAL/NL-onlyleagues,anaverageteamwouldbeexpectedtorosteronlyfourabove-averageskilledERAorstrikeoutstartingpitchers.ThosenumbersarenotmutuallyexclusivesotherewillbesomepitcherswhoareaboveaverageforERA,somewhoareaboveaverageforstrikeoutsandsomewhoareaboveaverageforboth.Infact:

AssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLBOTHPitchEff.andKs 5 4 Justunder3

It'sabitmoreofastretch.Theabovechartsrepresentyourtargets,however…Ifyoubuildyourteamexactlytotheseaverages,youwillhave…anaverageteam.Anythingabovethatmakesyouatleastminimallymorecompetitive.Sothegoalisalwaystoexceedthesetargets.

Iunderstandthatthesearemytargets.ButwhatifitsaysIshouldbeabletofillallmybatterspotswithpowerandIwanttodraftaperfectlygoodplayerlikeBillyHamilton?

Thisiswhereowningplayerswithextremeskillscomesinhandy.EverytimeyourosteraplayerwithaP+,S+,A+,E+orK+,youbuyyourselfafreeopenspot.So,ifyourosterapowerhitterwitha(P+)rating,thatwouldeffectivelyoffsetHamilton'sBABSvoidinpower.Itworksthesamewaywithallthecategories.AsInotedafewparagraphsago,(S+)playersaregodsbecausetheybuyyouanextranotchtowardthedifficult-to-reachspeedtargets.

OkayIgetthat.Butshouldn'tHamilton'slackofpowerbeconsideredaLiability?

Hamilton'slackofpowercouldbeconsideredaliability,butalackofcountingstatsdoesn'tinherentlydodamagetoyourteam.Therearelostopportunitycostsfromnotbeingabletorosterabetterplayer,butit'sdifferentintheratiocategories.AbadbattingaverageorERAcandorealdamage.That'swhythoseareconsideredLiabilities.

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Youdecidehowmuchofabalancedrosteryoudraft.However,attheendofthefinalround(orwhenthelastoftheauctiondollarsisspent,orwhenthelastbeerisgone–howeveritisyoudecidewhenthedraftisover),youshouldhaveatleastaminimumnumberofAssetboxesfilledonyourgrid: NUMBEROFASSETUNITS 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NL 50 47 30 Thesearewhataverageteamswillhave.Yourgoalistohavemore.

Waitaminute–IthinkImighthavemissedsomething.WhenwearecountinguptheAssetsforaplayer,howshouldweaccountforthethreelevelsofskillswhentryingtoreachthetargets?Isitassimpleasthetopskillequals3units,middleequals2,andthelastequals1(e.g.P+=3,PW=2,p=1)?

Ouranalyticalbrainslureusintowantingtodothat,butBABSsays–NO!EachAsset(andLiability)isconsideredasingleunit;BABSdoesnotattachspecificweightstoeachlevel.ThegoalistohaveanaboveaverageAssettomeeteachtarget.Youwanttoavoidhavingblankcellsinyourrosterspreadsheet.BABSisallaboutbalance.Noholes.

But…but…Inamixed15-teamleague,ifIrostered14guyswith“p”ratingsforpower,Iwouldjustbeaverageformyleague.But,ifhad10guyswith“p”ratingsand3guyswithPWratings,isn'tthatbetter?

Sure,intheory.Butstockingupandconcentratingyourpowerskillinfewerplayers,leavingholeselsewhere,leadstoanunbalancedrosterandexposesyoutomorepotentialrisk.Again,withBABS,balanceisimportant.Ifyourtargetis14playerswithabove-averagepowerskill…

P+ PW p Nopower 0 0 14 0 Good.Minimumbalancedroster. 0 7 7 0 Good.Additionalstrength. 1 8 5 0 Good.Evenbetter. 2 6 6 2 Stillgood.Addstwoextremeskills. 2 5 3 4 Nogood.Imbalancedpower.Toomanyholes. 4 1 4 5 Nogood.Powerstarsandscrubs.Toomanyholes.Youstartwithbalancefirstandthenbuildstrengthfromthere.Ifyoudoanythingelse,BABSwillhuntyoudownandputacurseonyourdisabledlist.Don'tcrossher.

Still…whydidn'tyoujustusenumericvalues(e.g.P+=3,PW=2,P=1,etc.)insteadoflettervalues(P+,PW,P,etc.)?Itwouldhavemadeitsomucheasierformyspreadsheettodothemathtocalculatemyneedsineachcategory.

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Sigh.Becausethisisnotaboutmath,ortheprecisionthatmathimplies.Nobodycancalculatethat“P+”isexactly“x”timesbetterthan“PW”or“p”.Admittedly,it’stoughforthoseofuswhohavethemathingrained(likeme!)towrapourbrainsaroundasystemthatdoesnotusenumbers.Forwhatit'sworth,BABSmajoredinMedievalLiteratureincollege.It'squitepossiblethatallofhercodeshavesomerootinLatin.BABSLiabilityMaximums(Assumingastandardrosterwith14battersand9pitchersandbasedoneachleague'sdraftableplayerpool.Playersoutsidethepooltypicallyhavemoreelevatedriskfactors.)

NUMBEROFPLAYERSLiabilityAverages 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLBATTERS-BattingEffectiveness 0 0 0Health Risk 3 4 2ExperienceRisk 3 4 2

PITCHERS-PitchingEffectiveness 0 0 0HealthRisk 2 2 1 ExperienceRisk 2 2 1

TheseLiabilitylevelsrepresentthenumberofriskyplayersanaverageteamwouldhaveifallrosterableplayersweredividedupequally.Inmostcases,youaregoingtowanttoconsidertheseasmaximums–yourriskbudget.(IfyouaremaximizingyourAssetsonthebattingandpitchingeffectivenessside,thenthenegativeoffsetswon'tbeaconcern.That'swhytherearezeroesacrosstheboardabove.Thereareenoughrosterableplayersthatyoudon'tneedtodraftsomeonewhowouldbeadragonthoseratiocategories.Butifyoufindyourselfgettingshutoutonthebetterplayers,youwanttoatleastavoidthosewhoareLiabilities.)Youdecidehowmuchriskyouwanttotakeon,butatleastyounowknowwhatanaverageteamwouldbear.However,attheendofthefinalround(orwhenthelastoftheauctiondollarsisspent,orthebeer…well,youknow),ifyou'verosteredanaverageamountofrisk,youwouldhavenomorethanthesenumberofLiabilityboxesfilledonyourgrid: NUMBEROFLIABILITYUNITS 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NL 10 12 6 Thesearewhataverageteamswillhave.Yourgoalistohavefewer.

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Oncemore,yourtargets.Thesearethenumberofboxesyouneedtohavefilledinbytheendofyourdrafttohaveconstructedateamofaverageplayingtime,skillandrisk.

12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLFull-timebatters 14 13 8Startingpitchers 6 7 6

180+IP 5 4 2Closers 3 2 1

MinimumAssets 50 47 30 MaximumLiabilities 10 12 6

You'llnotethatwewanttohavefarmoreAssetunitsthanLiabilityunits.It'sthesameconceptaseatinghealthyforfivedayssothatwecanhaveourcheeseburgersovertheweekend.Nowlet'saddthesetargetsdirectlytotheBABSworksheet:

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ASSETS

LIABILITIES

BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg

Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

ca

ca

1b

3b

ci

2b

ss

mi

of

of

of

of

of

ut

12MIXED 14 14 8 14 0 3 3 15MIXED 13 14 7 14 0 4 4

12AL/NL

8 9 4 9

0 2 2 PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg

Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

sp

sp

sp

sp

sp

p

p

rp

rp

12MIXED 6/3 7 7 3 0 2 2

15MIXED 7/2 6 6 2 0 2 2

12AL/NL 6/1 4 4 1 0 1 1 Yourgoalistodobetter.Youarenowalmostreadytoheadouttoyourdraft.Thereisonecriticalmissingpiece–themarketplace.

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TheBABSProjectChapter7

MarketplaceAnalysisYoustillwithme?

Yeah,I'mstillprocessingthis.I'mnotsureIagreewithallofit.Idon'tlikegivingupmynumbers.

Newideastaketime.Butthereisonemoreveryimportantpiece.AllthisBABSintelligenceisjusthalfthestory.IfyouusetheBABSrankingsheetsalone,youwilllikelyoverdraft/overpayorunderdraft/underpayformostofyourplayers,andrandomly.Soweneedthecollectivemindsetofthemarketplaceasasetofmarkersforyourdraftprep.WeneedADPsandAAVs(averageauctionvalues).Otherwisewe'rejustdraftinginavacuum.Themarketplacetellsuswhatourcompetitorsmaybethinking,whichalsotellsuswhatwearegoingtohavetopay(inauctiondollarsordraftslots)togetourplayers.YoushouldneverdraftexclusivelyoffanADPlistoroffofBABSalone(shegetsalittlecranky).It'sthemarriageofthetwothatmakesthemagic.Orrather,theplayerswiththemostconflictprovidethebestopportunitiesforprofit.

Hardlyamarriageatall.Soundsmorelikeweshouldbelookingforirreconcilabledifferences.

Agreed.WeneedtoknowtheplayerswherethemarketplaceandBABSdisagreethemost.We'relookingforthebiggestdiscrepancies.WhenBABSishigheronaplayerthanthemarketplace,that'saprofitopportunity.WhenthemarketplaceishigheronaplayerthanBABS,that'saplayeryoupasson.

So,whatisthemarketplacesayingthesedays?Themarketplacetypicallysaysthesamethingeachyear.Avalueisplacedoneachplayerbasedonsomegeneralcriteria.Thefollowinglistisindecliningorderofimpact,moreorless:

• Performancehistory,highlyinfluencedbythemostrecentperformance• Healthhistoryandcurrentinjuryconcerns• ADPsandpricingofpreviousdrafts• Teamcontext,especiallyforplayerswhohavechangedteams• Mediahype• Personalpreferences,includinghometownbias

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Let'stakealookathowthesecriteriaevolveintobenchmarksforthemarketplace.Itallstartsinthefall,whenthefirstpioneersofthefutureseasondecidetohaveamockdraft.Someofthespringannualshaveridiculouslyearlydeadlines(Decemberforsome)andhavetoconducttheirmag'smockaroundThanksgiving.It'smereweeksafterthelastoutoftheWorldSeries,wellbeforetheWinterMeetingsorwhenfreeagentshavestartedtosign.Allthatthesefirstpublishedlistsandmockdraftshavetorankplayersistherecencybiasofthepreviousseasonandspeculationaboutthefollowingseason.Thenextsetoflistsandmocksmightcomeoutafewweekslater,maybearoundthetimeoftheWinterMeetingsbutstillwellbeforeallthefreeagentshavefoundhomes.Thereisstilllittleinformationtoanalyze,sothesenextrankingswilltendtofeedoffthefirstones.Themoreofthesethatarepublishedoverthewinter,themoretheseearlyranksgainafootingandwestartformingopinionsaboutwhereplayersshouldbedrafted.Beforeyouknowit,wereachcriticalmass.Therankingsbecamelessaboutrealityandmoreaboutgroup-think.Oncespringtrainingcampsopen,ourexpectationsareallprettymuchlockedin.Forinstance,backinthefallof2015,everyonewasexcitedaboutCarlosCorreaafterhislateseasondebut.Afewpeopledecidedtopushtheenvelopewithafirstroundselectioninearlymockdrafts.ThepickgainedtractionovernumerouswintermocksandCorreaneverfelloutoffirstroundconsiderationafterthat.He'dentertheseasonrankedNo.6overall.He'dfinish2016outsidethetop70.(Yes,Correakeepspoppingupasacautionarytale.)Theresultinggroup-thinkispowerfulinformationifusedproperly.YoucancomparethoserankingstowhatBABSthinks(she'stheauthority)tohelpdetermineadraftstrategyforeachplayer,ortypeofplayer.Forinstance,aplayerwitha7throundADPwhoBABSseesasapotential5throundtalentbecomesaprime6throundtarget.Aplayerwitha$27AAVwhoBABSseesas$30-plustalentbecomesaprimebuycandidateatanythingunder$30andapotentiallystill-prudentbuyoncebiddinghitsthe$30s.ButtheserankingsandADPscandomoreharmthangoodifyouusethemalonetosetyourownexpectations. Nah…IdraftwhoeverIwant.I'mnotswayedbytheADPs.Maybe.ButI'dwageraguessthatyou'remorelockedinthanyouthink.Let'ssayit'spre-season2017andImakeaveryconvincingargumentthatFreddieFreemanshouldbedraftedaheadofNolanArenado.Youmightconsidermyanalysis,and

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evenifyouagree,youwillbereluctanttochangeyourexpectationsmuch.Why?BecauseallthepublishedanalyseslistArenadoasa1st-rounderandFreemannot.Shandlerisjustonevoiceinacrowdnomatterhowstrongmyargumentmightbe.Andfrankly,youdon'twanttoriskpublicscornbydraftingFreemantoohigh. ButFreemanisnotafirst-rounder.Whynot?Howdoyouknow?Therearemanyplayerswhoarenotconsideredfirst-roundersbutwhocouldbe.Infact,I'llbetyoudon'trememberthattheseplayersoncegeneratedfirstroundearnings:AdamJones,HunterPence,ChaseHeadley,CurtisGrandersonandMarkReynolds. MarkReynolds?C'mon.Hewasthe12thbestplayerinbaseballin2009.Ithappens.Ican'tstressenoughabouttherealitiesofgroup-thinkexpectations.Headinginto2015,themarketplaceconvincedusthatGiancarloStantonwassturdyenoughtojustifytheNo.4overallpick,thatpotentialaloneliftedYasielPuigintothetop25andthatoneoutstandingseasonmadeFelixHernandezthesecondbestpitcherinbaseball.Headinginto2016,themarketplaceconvincedusthatBryceHarper'strackrecordjustifiedatop3pick,thatonedownseasonwasenoughtopushformer20-20stalwartIanDesmondoutsidethetop100andthatGiancarloStantonwassturdyenoughtojustifytheNo.10overallpick.Ha!Sometimeshortly,youaregoingtolookattheBABSlistsonlineandyoumighteventhink,"Theserankingsareallwrong.ThereisnowayPlayerXshouldberankedthatlow/high."Sure,BABSmightbewrong,butnolesswrongthantheADPlistyou'vebeenusing.AndgiventhewayBABSisconstructed,shejustmightbealittlemoreright.Nowit’stimetoputitalltogether.

How?IfeellikeI'mfloatingoutinspacewithnoideaofwhereIshouldbedraftinganyplayer.AreyousayingthatIshouldtargettheplayersIwantandthenletthemarketplacedeterminewheretotakethem?

Youhavenochoice.That'showweplaythegame.Asmuchasyouthinkyouhavecontroloveryourteam,themarkethasalwaysdeterminedwhoyouendupwith.Inauctions,youalwayshavetopay$1morethaneveryoneelse.Insnakedrafts,yourpicksarewhateverisleftoveraftereveryoneelsegetstheirs.Eveninsalarycapgames,themarketplaceisyoursalarycap.YouhavetokeeptheideainyourheadthattheADPsandAAVsthateveryoneelseisworkingoffofarewrong—historyprovesthattimeandtimeagain—andanythingyoucandotoseparateyourselffromthegroup-thinkwillbetoyouradvantage.The

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beautyofBABSisthat,whileotherownersaretryingtodecide“shouldIorshouldn’tI?”whenitcomestoriskyplayers,you’llbeabletoseeeachplayer’strueskillsprofileseparatefromhisrisk,anddecidewhetherhefitsintoyourrosterplan.Soratherthanfightingthecurrent,useittoyouradvantage.Thechallengeistargetingtherightplayers.BABSwillhelpyoudothat.Ifyoumaythinkoneplayerisbetterthananotherandthenadjustyourdraftstrategy,BABSsays–NO!Youdon’tknowhowtheseplayersaregoingtoperform.Soplanouthowyouwantyourrostertolook,setyourAssetandLiabilitytargets,andthenfollowthemarket……whichisaprocessthatstarts–NOW.

67

TheBABSProjectChapter8

TheDraftLet'sjumprightintoit.TheplayersontheBABSlistarenotrankedatall.TheyareslottedintotheirrespectiveAssetGroups;thosewithsimilarprofilesarepresentedtogether.ItistheseAssetgroupsthatareranked,andeventhoseranksarejustroughapproximations.Butitwillstillbeenoughforyoutodraftfrom.

Okay,okay.CanIseeitalready??Yes.It'stime.Anexcerptofthe2016listappearsbelowasalearningtool.Printitoutsoyoucanfollowalong.AsI'vementionedafewtimesalready,thecurrentlistisonlineatRonShandler.com.(Notethattheformatappearingheremaydiffersomewhatfromwhatappearsonline.Thisbookwaswrittenconcurrentlywiththedevelopmentofadatabasethatwilldrivetheonlinecharts,butthisisbeingpublishedpriortothelaunchoftheonlinetool.)What'sonthisSpreadsheet?Atthetopofthespreadsheetisablankrostergrid.You'llkeeptrackofyourteamduringthedraftbyenteringtheirinformationinthegrid.(MembershiptoRonShandler.comgetsyouthisspreadsheetasadownloadablefile,whichwillallowyoutocutandpasteyourplayersintotheappropriatepositiononthegrid.)

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BroadAssessmentBalanceSheet

YOURTEAMROSTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

ca

ca

1b

3b

co

2b

ss

mi

of

of

of

of

of

ut

Target

Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

sp

sp

sp

sp

sp

sp

p

rp

rp

Target

resv

resv

resv

resv

resv

resv

ThegreyTargetbariswhereyoushouldinputyourAssetgoalsandLiabilitylimits,basedonthedatainChapter6.Thenasthedraftprogresses,you'llbeabletokeepupwithwhereyouareandwhereyouneedtobe.Beneaththerosterisyourplayerlist.Thefirsttwocolumnsrepresentthemarketplace–eachplayer'saveragedraftpositionrankingandADPsconvertedtodollarvalues.TherestisallBABS.Ain'tshegreat?Let'slookatanexcerptfrom2016'spre-seasonrankinglist:

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ASSETS

LIABILITIES

Marketplace BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

ADP $$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

1 $48 Trout,Mike 8o LAA F P+ s AV

4 $41 Kershaw,Clayton SP LA F E+ K+

2 $46 Goldschmidt,Paul 3 ARI F P+ AV

3 $43 Harper,Bryce o9 WAS F P+ AV inj-

5 $39 Donaldson,Josh 5 TOR F P+ AV

7 $38 Arenado,Nolan 5 COL F P+ AV

9 $36 Stanton,Giancarlo o9 MIA F P+ AV inj-

13 $33 McCutchen,Andrew 8o PIT F P+ AV

21 $28 Encarnacion,Edwin 3 TOR F P+ AV

36 $23+ Votto,Joey 3 CIN F P+ AV Rg

111 $12+ Ortiz,David 0 BOS F P+ AV Ag

16 $31 Pollock,A.J. 8o ARI F p SB AV

17 $30 Betts,Mookie o8 BOS F p SB AV e

23 $27 Marte,Starling o7 PIT F p SB AV

35 $23 Blackmon,Charlie o8 COL F p SB AV

48 $20+ Upton,Justin o7 DET F P+ s a

14 $32 Scherzer,Max SP WAS F ER K+

26 $26 Sale,Chris SP CHW F ER K+

25 $26 Springer,George o9 HOU F PW SB a INJ e

18 $29 Gordon,Dee 4 MIA F S+ AV

103 $12+ Revere,Ben o78 WAS F S+ AV Nw

10 $35 Rizzo,Anthony 3 CHC F PW AV

15 $31 Cabrera,Miguel 3 DET F PW AV inj-

22 $28 Abreu,Jose 30 CHW F PW AV

39 $22 Cespedes,Yoenis o78 NYM F PW AV Rg

43 $21 Braun,Ryan o9 MIL F PW AV INJ

47 $20 Tulowitzki,Troy 6 TOR F PW AV inj- Rg

55 $19 Seager,Corey 6 LA F PW AV EX

57 $18+ Jones,Adam 8o BAL F PW AV

66 $17+ Gonzalez,Adrian 3 LA F PW AV

70 $16+ Carpenter,Matt 5 STL F PW AV Rg

81 $15+ Freeman,Freddie 3 ATL F PW AV inj-

107 $12+ Dickerson,Corey o7 TAM F PW AV inj- e Nw

187 $7+ Conforto,Michael o7 NYM F PW AV EX

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256 $3+ Lind,Adam 3 SEA F PW AV Nw Pk

20 $28 Arrieta,Jake SP CHC F ER KK Rg

28 $25 Bumgarner,Madison SP SF F ER KK

33 $24 Harvey,Matt SP NYM F ER KK

38 $22 deGrom,Jacob SP NYM F ER KK

40 $22 Kluber,Corey SP CLE F ER KK

41 $21 Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS F ER KK inj-

46 $20 Syndergaard,Noah SP NYM F ER KK e

49 $20 Archer,Chris SP TAM F ER KK

50 $19 Carrasco,Carlos SP CLE F ER KK

51 $19 Hernandez,Felix SP SEA F ER KK

76 $15+ Hamels,Cole SP TEX F ER KK

89 $14+ Ross,Tyson SP SD F ER KK

24 $27 Davis,Chris 3o90 BAL F P+ a Rg

27 $26 Bautista,Jose o90 TOR F P+ a

37 $22 Martinez,J.D. o9 DET F P+ a

42 $21 Frazier,Todd 5 CHW F P+ a Nw

44 $21 Cruz,Nelson o90 SEA F P+ a Ag Rg

56 $18 Gonzalez,Carlos 9o COL F P+ a inj- Rg

80 $15+ Kemp,Matt o9 SD F P+ a

126 $10+ Davis,Khristopher o7 OAK F P+ a inj- Nw Pk

141 $9+ Duda,Lucas 3 NYM F P+ a

178 $7+ Teixeira,Mark 3 NYY F P+ a inj- Ag

54 $19 Gomez,Carlos 8o HOU F PW s a Rg

6 $38X Correa,Carlos 6 HOU F p AV EX Rg

8 $37X Machado,Manny 5 BAL F p AV inj-

19 $29X Posey,Buster 23 SF F p AV

53 $19 Cano,Robinson 4 SEA F p AV

67 $17 Hosmer,Eric 3 KC F p AV

87 $14 Pujols,Albert 30 LAA F p AV INJ Ag

95 $13 Beltre,Adrian 5 TEX F p AV inj- Ag

97 $13 Lucroy,Jonathan 2 MIL F p AV inj-

106 $12+ Pence,Hunter o9 SF F p AV INJ

116 $11+ Peralta,David o7 ARI F p AV e

269 $3+ Martinez,Victor 0 DET F p AV Ag

62 $17 Davis,Wade rp KC - E+ K+ SV

64 $17 Chapman,Aroldis rp NYY - E+ K+ SV Nw Rg

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SnakeDrafts:Inthefirstcolumn,I'vedividedupthetalentpoolintotiersofroughly50-60players(inalternatingorangeandwhitebands).Ifyou'reina15-teamleague,that'saspanofaboutthreerounds.Ifyou'reina12-teamleague,that'saspanofaboutfourrounds.Why50-60?Researchhasshownthatabout80percentoftheplayerswhoearnfirstroundvalueinagivenyearcomefromthepre-seasonADP'stop60players.Thatnumberseemstocapturemostofthevariabilitywithinatieroftalentandisnottoolargetorelegatethedraftingprocesstorandomdart-throws.Soformostofthedraft,you'llbetryingtoselectyourplayerswithinatierbeforemovingontothenexttier.Auctions:Inthesecondcolumn,allplayerswhocouldearn$30ormore–basedonBABS–arelistedtogether(indarkgreen).Similarly,thosewhocouldearn$20-$29arelistedtogether(inmediumgreen),asarethosewhocouldearn$10-$19(inlightgreen).Belowthat,thenumbersaretoosmallandvariabletoattacharealisticvalue.Thedifferencebetweena$3playerandan$8playerisnotremotelyprojectable.(Iwritethatalot.It'simportant.)Whiletheactualdollarvaluesaredrivenbythe15-teammixedformat,thebroader$30,$20and$10tiersarehelpfulforthosewhoplayindifferentdepthleagues.Again,thereisnothingpreciseaboutdollarvalues.ThirdColumn:PlayerswhoseBABSpositioningissignificantlyhigherthanthemarketplacearenotedwitha"+"–meaningapotentialprofitopportunity.Lookingatthefirstplayerwhohadprofitpotential,JoeyVottowasvaluedasa$30+player(darkgreen).That'shigherthanthe$23thatthemarketplaceispayingforhim.Soifyoucouldhavegottenhimatmarketprice,orevenanythingunder$30,youmighthavebeenabletopocketsomeprofit.Similarlyinasnakedraft,hisADPwasNo.36yethewaslistedinthetop10here.NabbinghimathisADPorevenalittleearlierwouldhaveprovidedprofit.

68 $16 Kimbrel,Craig rp BOS - E+ K+ SV Nw

69 $16 Jansen,Kenley rp LA - E+ K+ SV inj-

31 $24X Greinke,Zack SP ARI F ER k Nw Rg

32 $24X Cole,Gerrit SP PIT F ER k inj-

34 $23X Price,David SP BOS F ER k Nw

45 $20X Keuchel,Dallas SP HOU F ER k Rg

60 $18 Lester,Jon SP CHC F ER k

63 $17 Gray,Sonny SP OAK F ER k

74 $16 Cueto,Johnny SP SF F ER k Pk Nw

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Andinfact,Vottoearned$30in2016,generatingprofitforthoseownerswhopurchasedhimatmarketrates.Forsomeplayers,themarketplaceisfartoobullish.Forthose,you'llfindabigred"X".Ifyoudraftaccordingtotheserankings,you'lllikelynevergetdownfarenoughtoconsiderthembecausetheywillhavealreadybeendraftedbysomeoneelse.Andinfact,everyoneofthe"X"playersonthisabbreviatedlistfailedtoearnbacktheirdraftprice.AssetsWithineachtier,theplayersareassembledbytheirrespectiveAssetGroups.Soallthe(P+,AV)playersarelistedtogether,allthe(ER,KK)pitchers,andsoon.Withinthoseskillsgroups,playersarerankedbyADP.Idothissowecaneasilyseehowthemarketplacevalueseachsetofskills.Thisalsohelpsusuncovertheprofitandlossopportunities.Forinstance,itisimportanttoknowthat,whiletherewerenineplayerswithanidentical(P+,AV)profile,themarketplacerankedthemfromNo.2overalldowntoNo.111.ImaginehowmuchprofitDavidOrtizownerstookhome!LiabilitiesEachplayer'sLiabilitiesarescatteredthroughoutthelist.Theremightbevalueinrankingplayerswithineachgroupbytheseriskfactors,butwe'dlosetheabilitytomaintainahandleonthemarketplace.SoitisuptoyoutoalwayshaveaneyeontheLiabilitieswhenyoudraftaplayer.Theycouldhaveahugeimpact.UsingtheBABSspreadsheetatyourdraftWhenaplayerisnominatedforbidding,orselectedbyanotherteam,findhimonthespreadsheet.Ifanotherteamacquireshim,crosshimout.Ifyouacquirehim,enterhisinformationintotheappropriaterowonyourblankroster.Thiscanbeamanualprocessoryoucandeleterowsandcut/pastetheinformationfromExcel.YourCTL-F(orCMD-F)functiontolocatetheseplayerscomesinveryhandy.Asyoucontinuetodeleterowsofplayers,thepocketsoftalentandtierswillthinout.Itwillbecomemoreandmoreobviouswhenyouneedtojumpinonaparticularskillortypeofplayer.Yourprofitopportunitieswillbubbletothetopasotherownerswilllikelyhavethoseplayersrankedlowerontheirlists.BABSkeepsthemonyourradarconstantly,soyoucanpickwhichonesbestfittheneedsofyourroster,andattheappropriatetime.

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Ifyouseearunonastat,positionorrole(e.g.stolenbases,catchersorclosers),especiallyifitoccursonplayersfurtherdownthelist,youmayneedtojumpahead,butyoushouldbeabletosticktothelistfornearlyallyourpicks.Asyoufillyourroster,keepaneyeonyourtargets.IfyoustartfallingbehindonaspecificAsset,you'llneedtolookaheadonthelisttoseewhatyouroptionsare.Attheendofthedraft,youshouldhaveaverygoodideaofthestrengthsandweaknessesofyourroster.Rememberthatthedraftisjustastartingpoint;thereisalongseasonahead.Aslongasyou'vebuiltasolidfoundation,you'llhaveplentyoftimetomakeadjustmentsasneeded.

Whoa,whoa,waitaminute.AreyousayingthatIhavetorunmydraftwithaspreadsheet?Seriously?Whatisthis,the1990s?

Okay,Ishouldaddressthis.Forthosewhousesoftwareprogramstoruntheirdrafts,youaregoingtomissthebells-and-whistlesthatcalculateinflationonthefly,providein-draftprojections,anddoeverythingexceptcleantheoven.Ihavegreatrespectforthefolkswhohavecreatedsuchprograms,buttheylullusintoacomfortableplacewithfauxprecision.Alltheircalculationsandfancychartsaredrivenbyprojections…andbynowyouknowwhatIthinkaboutanythingpoweredbyprojections.Theevidencethattheresultsarefarlessvaluablethanyouthinkrestsinthepro-formastandingsthattheseprogramsspitoutattheendofyourdraft.Howmuchvaliditydoyouputintothose? Um,prettymuchnone.Ithoughtso.Butshouldn'tyou?You'vespentallthatefforttobuildateamthatgeneratesthebestsetofprojections.Shouldn'tyoutaketheresultsmoreseriously? It'salongseason.Sureis.ButBABSthinksyoushouldstartwithafoundationthat'snotsolockedintoafixedsetofnumbers.Wesimplydon'tknowwhatthosenumbersaregoingtolooklikebyOctober.Soyes,thisspreadsheetwillbeastepback,ajourneyintoretro-draftingofthe1990s.Yes,itwillrequirealittlemorehands-onwork.Butdeepdownyouknowthataturnkeytoolisneverquiteasvaluableasonewhereyouhavetorollupyoursleevesabit.Andwhoknows?OnceeveryonefallsinlovewithBABS,maybeshe'llagreetobeautomatedtoo.SortalikeExMachina.

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TheBABSProjectChapter9

BABSinAuctionsI’vebeenplayinginauctionleaguesformorethan30years.AndIspentprettymuchallofthattimeworriedaboutoptimalbudgeting,gettingthebestvaluesandnotoverpayingforplayers.I’veagonizedoverwhethertogoanextrabuck,howlongtostayinbiddingwarsandmakingsureIspentallmy$260. You'reatrueauctionpro.Yeah,butBABSsaysI'mspendingtoomuchenergyonmeaninglessthings.AndIworrytoomuch.WhenitcomestousingBABSinanauctionleague,everythingstartswiththisparagraphfromChapter1:“Thereisonlya65%chancethataplayerprojectedforacertaindollarvaluewillfinishtheseasonwithinplus-or-minus$5ofthatprojection.Thatmeans,ifyouprojectaplayerwillearn$25andyouagonizewhenbiddinghits$27,thereisreallyabouta2-in-3shotofhimfinishinganywherebetween$20and$30.”Thistellsmethatthebestwecanreasonablydoinsettingauctionbudgetsistoworkin$10spans.Thatprovidesuswitha65percentchanceofbeingontarget.Sothatisthebestplacetobegin,andBABSalreadydoespartoftheworkforus.Asshownearlier,BABSpresentsalltheplayersinAssetGroups.Withinthosegroups,sheranksthembymarketvalue.Thatmarketvalueispresentedin$10ranges,sothe"Over$30"rangeislistedfirst,followedbythe$20-29range,andsoondowntotheend-gamers.Inthe$30+range,forinstance,someplayerswillcostsignificantlymorethan$30–andpossiblyearnasmuch.Somewillcostless,butcouldstillearnover$30.Theselatterplayersrepresentyourbestshotatprofit,thoughatthistieroftalent,paristhegoal;profitisgravy.Profitopportunitiesincreasethefurtheryougodownthelist–the$20-$29playersandthenthosewhowilllikelygointheteens.Onceyougettothesingledigitplayers,youshouldnotbeagonizingoverindividualdollars(frankly,thatgoesforanytier)becausethereislittleprojectabilityatthislevel.Asmallhandfulofwind-blownhomeruns(andassociatedrunsandRBIs)canturna$3playerintoa$7player.Don’tsweatit.

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Thepointisthatyourfocusshouldbeprimarilyonrosteringthebestplayers,andsecondarilyonthecost.

Butyoucan'thaveallthebestplayers.Sohowdoyoubudget?Tostartoff,Iwouldsplitthedifferencewithineach$10range.Ifwe’reprojectingagroupofplayerstoearnsomewherebetween$20and$30,thencallthata$25tier.Inplanningoutyourroster,youshouldbudgetfor$35players,$25players,$15playersand$5players.That’showwe’lllabelourauctiontiers.

Hmmmm.Thisisgettingfartoofuzzy.Areyousayingthatanyonevaluedbetween$20and$30wouldbeclassifiedasa$25player?

Yup.Forthoseofususedtoplanningoutourrostersinfinerdollardetail,thisisgoingtocausesomediscomfort.TakeaTUMS.Asmuchaswewanttothinkotherwise,youcan’tgetanymoreprecisethanthis.Youcanusedollarvaluestogetasenseofwhatthemarketplaceispayingforeachplayer.Butitiscounterproductivetofixateonthosenumbers.Asyoubuildoutyourroster,you’llcontinuetokeeptrackofyourprofitandlossoneachpick,justlikeyou’ddonormally.Withineachtieriswhereyoucandomoredetailedrosterplanning.Inthe$35tier,forinstance,youhaveyourchoicefromamongmanydifferentAssetGroups–some(P+,AV),some(p,SB,AV),etc.Youcouldbypassthattiercompletelyandbuildyourteamaroundmultiple(PW,AV)and(P+,a)playersinthe$25tier.It'sessentiallythesamedecision-makingprocessthatyounormallyemploy,buildingyourrosterwithstarsandscrubs,orspreadingyourrisk.Howyoudesignyourteamcomesdowntothreeconsiderations:1.Themarketpricesoftheplayers.IsthemarketplacetoohighontheplayersinanAssetGroup?Isthereopportunityforprofit?Let'ssaythereareadozenpitchersinthe(ER,KK)group,ranginginmarketpricefrom$28downto$15.Ifyouhadplannedthatyouranchorstarterwouldcomefromthisskillsgroup,younowknowthatyoudon'tnecessarilyhavetospend$28here.Youcanbudgetforalower-pricedarmandstillfeelconfidentthatyou'dberosteringcomparableskillsvalue.Mkt$ Player Assets Liabilities$28 JakeArrieta ER,KK Rg$25 MadisonBumgarner ER,KK -- -- $19 FelixHernandez ER,KK$15 ColeHamels ER,KK

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Youcanspend$28forArrietaor$15forHamels.Sameunderlyingskills;yourchoice.2.ThedepthofeachAssetGroup.ThedeepertheAssetGroup,themorechancesyouhavetogettheplayersyouneed.Yes,youcanplantopurchaseClaytonKershaw–whoistheonly(E+,K+)startingpitcher–butifsomecrazyownerbidshimupto$50,youaregoingtohavetorestructureyourplanprettyquickly.Planyourtargetsfromgroupsthathavemanyplayerssoyouhavemoreshotsatdraftingthetypesofplayersthatfityourrostergoals.3.YourassessmentoftheAssetsandLiabilitiesoftheplayerswithineachtier.DotheAssetGroupsprovidetheskillsthatyouneed?Ifyoutargetedaspecificgroup,howmuchriskwouldyouhavetoincur?Saytherearefouravailableplayersinthe(p,AV)group,butnearlyallofthemhavesomeinjuryrisk.Youcouldchoosetotargettheseplayersanyway,orshiftyourbudgettothe(P+,a)groupwherefewerplayershaveanynotableLiabilities.Mkt$ Player Assets Liabilities$17 EricHosmer p,AV $14 AlbertPujols p,AV INJ,Ag$13 AdrianBeltre p,AV inj-,Ag$12 HunterPence p,AV INJ$27 ChrisDavis P+,a Rg$26 JoseBautista P+,a $22 J.D.Martinez P+,a$21 ToddFrazier P+,a NwIntheaboveexample,youcouldjusttargetEricHosmer,butifheendsupgoingforapricebeyondwhatyou'rewillingtopay,thenyou'releftwithriskierassetsinthatgroup.Budgetingaroundthe(P+,a)groupcouldpotentiallygiveyoumoreoptionseventhoughthe(P+,a)playersarepricier.Intheend,it’syourchoicehowyoudecidetodesignyourteam.Youarethearchitect.

Itallsoundsgoodintheory,butI'mnotsureIwantthatmuchfreedom.WhatifI'malousyarchitect?

Whatdoyoumean?

Okay,forinstance…HowdoIknowwhentostopbiddingonaplayer?AtwhatpointinthebiddingdoIconcludethatthepriceistoohigh,dropoutandgoforanotherguy?ShouldIpay$30?$35?$40?Withoutaspecificprojection,howdoIknowwhatthepriceshouldbe,andthereforewhetherI’mactuallymakingasoundbid?

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Theshortanswer–andtheoneIsuspectyoudon’twanttohear–isthatwedon’teverknowwhenabidissound.Youhavethelistedmarketpriceasaguidebutthat’sjustanindustryaverage;itmaynotreflectthebiddingtendenciesinyourownleague.Rememberthatourbidshaveonlya65%chanceofbeingwithin+/-$5ofaplayer'struevalueanyway.Soitreallydoesn’tmatterbecauseit’stheotherowners'bidsthatultimatelydeterminehowhighyou’llneedtogotopurchaseaplayer.However,therearesometacticalconsiderationsthatmayhelpyourin-draftbiddingdecisions.Ahelpfulin-drafttacticistofindbenchmarkpriceswithinyourgroupofowners.WheneverthefirstplayerinanAssetGroupgetsbought,makenoteofhispurchaseprice.Playersaroundhimshouldgoatapproximatelythesamemarketlevel.Giventheabove,tossingthefirstplayerwithinanAssetgroupisalwaysgoingtobeasoundnominatingstrategy.Tossthefirst(PW,AV)guyorthefirst(ER,KK)pitcher,preferablytheonewiththehighestexpectedmarketprice.Thatshouldgiveyousomegoodinsightintoapproximatebiddingbenchmarks.Oncethatbenchmarkisset,youcanscanthelistofplayerswithcomparableprofilesanddecidewherethemostprofitabletargetsmightbe.Forinstance,takethe(ER,K+,SV)AssetGroupin2016,whichrepresentedagroupofclosersjustbehindtheelitearms:Mkt$ Player Assets Liabilities$14 JeurysFamilia ER,K+,SV Rg$13 KennethGiles ER,K+,SV e,Nw$12 CodyAllen ER,K+,SV$12 DavidRobertson ER,K+,SV$10 A.J.Ramos ER,K+,SVFacedwiththeseplayers,youcouldnominateJeurysFamiliaforbidding.Ifhegoesfor$18–$4higherthanhisexpectedmarketvalue–youmightconcludethatplayersinthisAssetgroupwillbeslightlyoverpriced.Inthatcase,youcouldopttogoafteracomparableplayeratthelowerendofthegroup(likeRamos).Evenifyouhavetopayafewdollarsoverhismarketvalue,you'dstillbesavingmoneyratherthanpotentiallyoverpayingforaGilesorAllen,allplayerswithcomparableskills.IalsothinkthatpurchasingthesecondplayernominatedfromanAssetgroup–particularlyadeepgroup–couldprovidesomeprofit.Onceownersseethebenchmarkpriceon,say,oneoftheelitespeedsters,theymightbelessdriventodriveupthepriceofthesecondplayerinthegroupknowingthattherearestillothersavailabletobidonlater.Finally,alwaysadjustyourexpectationsforplayerswithLiabilities.It'seasytoforgettodothatbutthepotentialdamagecouldbebrutal.

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ASampleRosterPlanandDraftHereisasampleplanningprocess.Thisisjustasample.Yourapproachmightbedifferent.Justsoyouknow,thisismyplanandminealone.ThisplanthatIhave—thatistosay,whichismine…ismine.Itbelongstome,andIownitandwhatitis,too.Justsothat’sclear. Igetit.Okay,Istartbylookingatthetalentinthe$35tier,IdecidethatIwanttotargettwoplayersfromthisgroup.Iwanttogetonebigpowerbat(P+,AV),perhapsa1Bman,andonewhohasatleastSignificantspeedskill(SBorS+)intheoutfield.Ibudget$70($35x2)forthesetwoplayers.Fromthe$25tier,I’lltargetan(ER,KK)anchorstarterandtwomorepowerhitters(P+orPW),a3Bmanandanotheroutfielder.I'lladjustthepositionslaterifnecessary.Ibudget$75($25x3)fortheseplayers.I’vebudgeted$145forfiveplayerssofar.Inthenext$15tier,Iamgoingtotargetacloser,a#2starter,myfirstcatcherandfillouttwootherinfieldspots.Ibudgetforfive$15players,or$75.I’venowbudgeted$220for10players.HittersCA $151B $35 (P+,AV)3B $25 (PW)2B $15SS $15OF $35 (SB)OF $25 (PW)PitchersSP $25 (ER,KK)SP $15RP $15Iamcruising!

Notsofast,bigshot.Thatleavesyoujust$40for13players.You'rescrewed.Yeahhh…notsomuch.

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Yousee,manyoftheplayersI’llbebuyingwillgoforlessthanthebudgetamount,sometimesmuchless.IknowthatIamnotgoingtochaseall$27-$30playersinthe$25tier,becauseIdon’thaveto.Mosteveryplayerinthattierthatwillreturnearningssomewhereinthe$20s–wecan’tpredictexactlyhowmuch–andthereareplentythatwillonlycostme$20-$23,orevenless.EachoneIrosterwilladdmoredollarstomyremainingbudget.SoifIgrabJoeyVottofromthe$35tierfor$25(still$2overmarketprice),thatbuilds$10profitbackintomyroster.NowIhave$50forthoselast13players.DothisenoughandImightbeabletoaddplayersatsomeoftheuppertiers.ButmypersonalgoalforthisparticularsampledraftistohaveenoughmoneysothatI’mpayinganywherefrom$3-$7foreachoftheplayersinthebottomhalfofmyroster.Here'sastress-buster:Atthepointofsingle-digitdollarplayers,theonlythingIamlookingforarethosewiththebestskill/riskprofiletofillthosespots.IthardlymatterswhatIpayforthembecauseoddsarethepurchasepricewon’tbeanywhereclosetowhattheywillearn.Soifyougetintoabiddingwarwithanotherownerovera$7player,justdropout.It’snotworththestressandoddsarethereareseveralothersimilarlyunpredictableplayerswhoyoucangrab.Intheend,myrosterplanmightstartoutlookingliketheonebelow.I’vemadetheassumptionthatit'sthe2016seasonandIpurchasedallmyplayersatmarketprices.POS Bdgt Player Assets Liab PriceCa 15 Wieters PW,a INJ 8Ca1b 35 Encarnacion P+,AV 283b 25 Carpenter PW,AV Rg 16ci2b 15 Rendon p,a INJ 16ss 15 Crawford PW,a Rg 7miof 35 S.Marte p,SB,AV 27of 25 N.Cruz P+,a Ag,Rg 21ofofofutsp 25 Carrasco ER,KK 19sp 15 Lester ER,k 18spspspsprp 15 Chapman E+,K+ Rg 17rprp

That'sanicecore.Notabadstart.

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Actually,it’snotagoodstartatall.I’vespentalotonoffensebutrosteredverylittlespeed.Morethanthat,BABStellsmeImayhavepurchasedabittoomuchriskformycoreplayers.SowhileI’verosteredabout$220worthofpotentialvalueforthecostof$177,thereisstillalotofworktodo.It’sgoodthatI’veincreasedmy$40for13players(about$3perplayer)to$83for13players(about$6perplayer).Atthispoint,manyofyouwouldstilllikemorestructureandguidanceastohowtospendthat$83.Theonlythingyouneedtoknowisthatyourremainingbuyshavetoaverageabout$6perplayer.Ofthose13players,oddsarethatmaybehalfofthemwilldrawanyinterestfromotherowners;thoseownershavetheirownholestofillanddon’tgiveaflyingwhoopaboutyou.Youwon’thavetopaymorethanafewbucksforanyoftherest.Andtypically,thereareplentyofplayerstopickfrom,especiallyinamixedleague.LooktoBABStouncoverthosehiddenpocketsofpotentialvalue.Admittedly,thedynamicisabitmorerigidinanAL/NL-onlyleaguebutBABSwillstillidentifytheplayerswithsomeusableskillaswellasthelandminestoavoid.Itallgoesbacktothestep-by-stepTotalControlDraftingprocessIwriteaboutintheBaseballForecaster.Twosimplesteps:1.Createyouroptimaldraftpool.2.Getthoseplayers.I’mnotbeingflip.Ifwereallyknewthatwewereoverpayingforanyoneplayer,atanytime,thenmyadvicewouldbedifferent.Butwedon’tknow.Thebestwecandoisjustgettheplayerswe'veidentifiedasthebestfits.So,letmefillouttherestofthesampleroster.Ineedtofindsomespeedandafewmoreless-riskycommodities.The13newdraftedplayersareinred.POS Bdgt Player Assets Liab PriceCa 15 Wieters PW,a INJ 8Ca Realmuto p,s,a e 81b 35 Encarnacion P+,AV 283b 25 Carpenter PW,AV Rg 16ci Castellanos PW,a 42b 15 Rendon p,a INJ 16ss 15 Crawford PW,a Rg 7mi Peraza S+,a EX 3of 35 S.Marte p,SB,AV 27of 25 N.Cruz P+,a Ag,Rg 21of Inciarte SB,AV Nw 7of Pillar s,a e 8of B.Miller p,s,a 3ut V.Martinez p,AV 3

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sp 25 Carrasco ER,KK 19sp 15 Lester ER,k 18sp Shields e,k 10sp Teheran e,k 7sp McHugh e,k 7sp Hammel e,k 4rp 15 Chapman E+,K+ Rg 17rp Giles ER,K+ 13rp Ziegler ER Ag,Rg 5Aperfectroster?No,butyoucanseehowIwasabletoassesswhereIstoodasIwentalongandknewwhatAssetGroupsIneededtotarget.Thedraftisjustastartingpoint,afterall.Noteafewinterestingpicks.Ipaid$3forVictorMartinez,effectivelyrosteringaplayerinthe$20-$30tierforminimalcost.Thereareseveralotherplayersfromthe$10-$20tierthatIwasabletorosterforlessthan$10aswell.AndIhardlyhadtodipintothesingledigitmasses;therewereenoughgoodbuysinthehighertiers.NotealsothattheonlyrosterspotsforwhichIsetanyrealbudgetwerethe10atthetop.ThoseweremyfoundationplayerssoIwantedtomakesuretheywereinplace.Therestofthedraftwasaboutfillingneedswiththebestplayers.Again,thiswasjustmyparticularapproachtothisparticularroster.Ifyoufeelmorecomfortablebudgetingdeeper,goforit.Justremembertobeflexible.Ifthereareanypositivestothisroster,itwasmycontrolofLiabilities,particularlyonthepitchingside.Icameinfarshortoftheallowablemaximum.That'sgoodnews…maybe.Inredraftleagues,theeventualwinnerisoftentheonewhoembracesmorerisk.Sometimes.It'syourcall.BABScanonlygiveyouguidelines;shecan'ttwistyourarm.ThebeautyofBABSinanauctionisthatyouarenotlockedintoanydollarexpectation.Youneednotobsessaboutoverbidding.Youjusthavetokeeptellingyourself,“Iwon’thavetooverpayforanyonebecausenobodyknowswhatthehecktheseplayersaregoingtoearnanyway.”Justaslongasyoutargettheplayerswiththebestskill/riskprofilesandbidwithinthetiers,you’llbefine.Asmuchasyoumightthinkotherwise,youhavenootherchoice.Ourpreviousmethodsofauctiondraftbudgetingmadeusthinkwehadmorecontrol,butweneverreallydid.

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TheBABSProjectChapter10

BABSinSnakeDraftsPlayingoffthemarketplaceinasnakedraftisaninexactscience.Unlikeauctionswhereyoucanbidonwhoeveryouwant,hereyouareatthemercyoftheotherowners.ThepowerofBABSisasaguideforgoodspotstograbplayers.Nobodywantsto"reach"furtherthanisnecessary,butBABScanhelpminimizethedamage.Herearethreeexamplesfrom2016thatshowhowBABSwouldhavehelpedmaximizeyouroddsofsuccess.TheFirstRoundHereiswhatthefirstroundADPrankinglookedlikecomingintothe2016season:ADP Player Assets Liabilities1 MikeTrout P+,s,AV2 PaulGoldschmidt P+,AV+3 BryceHarper P+,AV+ inj-4 ClaytonKershaw E+,K+5 JoshDonaldson P+,AV+6 CarlosCorrea p,AV EX,Rg7 NolanArenado P+,AV8 MannyMachado p,AV inj- 9 GiancarloStanton P+,AV+ inj-10 AnthonyRizzo PW,AV+11 KrisBryant P+,s,+ e12 JoseAltuve SB,AV Rg13 AndrewMcCutchen P+,AV+ 14 MaxScherzer ER,K+ 15 MiguelCabrera PW,AV+ inj-Thereareavarietyofskillspocketswithinthese15players.Somearelegitimatelyworthyoffirst-roundconsideration;somenotsomuch.Infact,thereareagoodfewplayersdraftedafterthisgroupthatwouldhavebeenbetterconsiderationsforthetop15. Retrospectisawonderfulthing.Well,sure.Butit'sinstructivetoseehowthisallworksbylookingatafewrealcasestudies.Iapproachedtheabovelistintwostages:firstscreeningouttheplayerswithmajorLiabilitiesandthenfocusingontheremainingbestAssetprofiles.

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Iamrisk-aversewhenitcomestofirst-rounders–anapproachIhighlyrecommend–soIimmediatelypassedonHarper,Correa,Machado,Stanton,BryantandCabrera.Thatwouldhavefilteredoutsomeof2016'sbiggestdisappointments,eventhoughIwouldhavealsomissedoutonafewgoodperformances.There'salwaysthatriskofcollateralopportunitycost.TheremainingplayerswouldhavebeenconsideredinorderofbesttoworstAssetprofiles,favoringbattersoverpitchers.Myfirstrounddraftlistwouldthenhavebeen:1.Trout2.Goldschmidt3.Donaldson4.McCutchen5.Arenado6.Rizzo7.Altuve8.Kershaw9.ScherzerTheonlyrealmissherewasMcCutchen.Tofillouttherestofmydraftlist(assumingthosenineplayersgotdraftedbeforemypick),Icouldpullupsomelow-risksecond-rounders,likeEdwinEncarnacionandStarlingMarte.ButbyfilteringoutthebiggerLiabilitiesupfront,BABSincreasedmyoddsofavoidingafirstroundbust.The(P+,AV*)AssetGroupNoticethattherewerefiveplayersinthatfirstroundwithidentical(P+,AV*)assets,goingNos.2,3,5,9and13.Theoretically,theyshouldhavebeenselectedtogether,separatedonlybytheweightoftheirLiabilities.Goldschmidt,DonaldsonandMcCutchenshouldhavebeendraftedtogether;HarperandStantonprobablyshouldhavebeendraftedsomedistancebehindthembecauseoftheirinjuryrisk.Actually,therewerenotjustfiveplayersinthatAssetGroup–therewereeight.AndtheywerescatteredoveramuchwiderrangeoftheADPs.Takealook:ADP Player Assets Liabilities2 PaulGoldschmidt P+,AV*3 BryceHarper P+,AV* inj-5 JoshDonaldson P+,AV*9 GiancarloStanton P+,AV* inj-13 AndrewMcCutchen P+,AV*21 EdwinEncarnacion P+,AV*36 JoeyVotto P+,AV* Rg111 DavidOrtiz P+,AV* Ag

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Alltheseplayerscameinto2016withtheidentical(P+,AV*)skillsprofile.ThosewithearlierADPsgotdraftedsomewhereinthefirstroundbutthelastthreeplayersonthislistprovidedcomparableskills.Youdidn'tloseanythingbydraftingEncarnacioninthesecondround.Infact,Ioftentookhimwithalatefirstroundpickin2016ratherthanincurunnecessaryrisk.Thatdecisionservedmewell.ThebigprofitopportunitieswereVottoandOrtiz–alsothesameskillsprofile–thoughbothcarriedsomeminorLiabilities.Vottowasaregressionrisk;Ortizwasanagerisk.Eitherplayercouldfallvictimtothatrisk–ornot–butitmadeatonofdifferencewhetheryoutookonanyriskatADPNo.3(Harper)orNo.111(Ortiz).WithaplayerlikeOrtiz,grabbinghimanywherebetweenpicksNo.90andNo.100wouldnothavebeentoomuchofareach.YoustillcouldhaveearnedtonsofprofitascomparedtothesimilarlyskilledplayersatNo.36andearlier.ADP Player Liab HR SB Avg2 PaulGoldschmidt 24 32 .2973 BryceHarper inj- 24 21 .2435 JoshDonaldson 37 7 .2849 GiancarloStanton inj- 27 0 .24013 AndrewMcCutchen 24 6 .25621 EdwinEncarnacion 42 2 .26336 JoeyVotto Rg 29 8 .326111 DavidOrtiz Ag 38 0 .315Allthingsconsidered,BABSmayhaveunderratedthespeedpotentialforGoldschmidtandHarper,buttheonlyplayerthatshecompletelywhiffedonwasMcCutchen.4throundpitchersAfterClaytonKershaw,MaxScherzer,ChrisSale,MadisonBumgarner,JoseFernandezandMattHarvey,therewastypicallyarunofstartingpitchersthatdominatedthe4thround.Thefollowingeightpitchersallhad4throundADPs.Itwasacommonrefrainbymanydrafters,"AslongasIgetoneoftheseguysbytheendofthe4throundI'llbefine.Doesn'tmatterwhichone."Well…ADP Player Assets Liabilities31 ZackGreinke ER,k Rg,Nw32 GerritCole ER,k inj-34 DavidPrice ER,k Nw38 JacobdeGrom ER,KK 40 CoreyKluber ER,KK41 StephenStrasburg ER,KK inj-44 DallasKeuchel ER,k Rg45 NoahSyndergaard ER,KK e

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…itdidmatter,atleastin2016.Althoughalleightpitchersweresomewhatinthesameskillsballpark,thosewithslightlylesser-skills(ER,k)weregettingdraftedearlierthanthosewithabetterskillsprofile(ER,KK).Allfourpitcherswithsignificantstrikeoutdominancehadgreatyears.Theirnumberswerepositiveassetstoyourteam,evenifsomeofthemspentpartoftheyearontheDL.FiveofthesixpitcherswithsomeLiabilityfaredworsethanexpected,evenifjustfewerinnings.Andallfourpitcherswithlesserskills(ER,k)weredisappointments.ADP Player Assets Liab IP ERA K/931 ZackGreinke ER,k Rg,Nw 159 4.37 7.632 GerritCole ER,k inj- 116 3.88 7.634 DavidPrice ER,k Nw 230 3.99 8.938 JacobdeGrom ER,KK 148 3.04 8.740 CoreyKluber ER,KK 215 3.14 9.541 StephenStrasburg ER,KK inj- 148 3.60 11.244 DallasKeuchel ER,k Rg 168 4.55 7.745 NoahSyndergaard ER,KK e 184 2.60 10.7Soifyoufacedthisgroupofarmsanddeterminedyourtargetbasedonbetterskillsandlowerrisk,youhadmuchbetteroddsofrosteringapitcherthathelpedyourteamin2016.

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TheBABSProjectChapter11

BABSinKeeperLeaguesWhenthinkingaboutBABSinkeeperleagues,itishelpfultostartbydefiningwhatmakesaplayerprotectablefromoneseasontoanother.Itreallycomesdowntoonebroadstatement:Anyplayerthatyouwouldnotbeabletogetbackinthedraftathiscurrentprice,orless,ispotentiallyprotectable.Theseplayersgenerallyfallintothreecategories:Lowcostprofit-holders:Theseareplayerswhoseperformanceandearningslastyearexceededwhatyoupaidforthematthedraft.A$5playerwhoearned$15isapotentiallyprotectablecommodity.Your10throundpickwhoiscurrentlygoinginthefirstfourroundsislikelyprotectable.Thatend-gameflyeryoutookwhoturnedinaCyYoung-caliberperformance,eventhoughhisskillsmetricswerepedestrian,hastobeaconsideration.Atparcornerstoneplayers:Asmuchasitisnicetostockyourkeeperlistwith$5playerswhoearned$15lastyear,youalsoneedhighlevelfoundationguys.A$27EdwinEncarnacion,athirdroundToddFrazier,andevena$40ClaytonKershawareallpotentiallyprotectable.Why?Withdraftinflation,allthreeofthoseplayerswilllikelycostfarmoreonDraftDay.Sinceownerswillbeprotectingplayersatreducedprices,therewillbefarmoredollarsavailableinthedraftthantherewillbevaluableplayers.Soallplayerswillpotentiallycostmore.Yes,protectingKershawat$40seemslikealot,buteven20percentdraftinflationcouldputhispricetagcloserto$50atthedraft.Prospects:Theseareplayersofuncertainvaluethatyoumightbeabletoredraft,butmostownersprefertohangontothemaslongasthereisnocosttodoso.Minorleaguers,collegeplayers,evenforeignstarsallrepresentspeculationonupside.BasicsBABShandlesthefirsttwocategorieswithinitscurrentstructure.Comparewhatyourkeepercostistowhereyourplayerfallsinthespreadsheet.TheBABStiersandmarketplacevalueswillgiveyouenoughinformationtomakeaninformeddecisionaboutwhetherthatplayerisprotectable.

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So,let'ssayIownaplayerfor$24.Hismarketpriceis$22.Itosshimback,right?

Notsofast.BABSwouldprobablyrankhisskillsprofilewithinthe$20-$30tier,whichmeanshecouldconceivablyearnanywherefrom$20-$30.Andyes,it’spossibleyoucouldpurchasehimatthedraftforafewdollarslessthanyour$24keepercost.Howeverthatmarketpriceisnotadjustedforinflation.SoifthatplayerismadeavailableonDraftDay,hecouldgofor$26(20percentinflation),$29(30percentinflation),ormore.Suddenly,your$24decisionlookseasiertomake.Notethatthesearedecisionsmadeinavacuum,butshouldn’tbe.ManyofyourkeeperdecisionsshouldbebasedonwhatyouanticipatethetalentpooltolooklikeonDraftDay.Forthat,youneedtoknow–oratleasthaveageneralsenseof–whatplayerstheotherownersarekeeping.Ifyou’reonthefenceaboutprotectingacatcherwhomightbeslightlyoverpricedat$23,it’shelpfultoknowthattheleague'stopfivecatchersarealllikelygoingtobekeptbyotherteams.BABSdoesfinewiththesetypesofdecisions.TheplacewhereweneedtotakeadeeperlookiswithprospectsandyoungerplayerswhohaveExperiencerisk.TheRisksofYouthBABSratesprospectsandyoung,inexperiencedplayersintwoways.Mostobviously,theyaregivenanExperienceriskratingof“EX”(lessthanoneyearofexperience)or“e”(approximatelyonebutlessthantwoyearsofexperience).Buttheseplayersarealsoratedbasedonhowmuchexpectedplayingtimetheystandtoget.Alllevelsofexperiencecouldbeinlineforfull-time,mid-timeorpart-timeplateappearancesorinnings.SoyoumayfindpocketsofpotentialupsidetalentjustaboutanywhereintheBABSspreadsheet.TheimportantthingaboutaplayerwithExperiencerisk–either“e”orespecially“EX”–isheisnotyetafullyformedcommodity.HisBABSskillsratingshavethepotentialtoimproveoncehegetsmoreplayingtimeunderhisbelt.Conceivably,hisassetscouldcontinuetodevelop.Wedon’tknowforsure,buta“p”couldbecomea“PW”andperhapsevena“P+”overtime.Hiscurrentratingsprovideonlyaclueaboutwhattypeofplayerhemightturnouttobe.Unfortunately,theflipsideistruetoo.Anyinexperiencedplayerwithelevatedskillsratingshasthepotentialtoregressoncehegetsmoreexposed.Twohighrisk“EX”playersnearthetopofBABSratingsin2016wereCoreySeagerandMichaelConforto(bothPW,AV).Youcouldhaveevaluatedthemascomparabletoestablished(PW,AV)veteranslikeAnthonyRizzoandAdamJones,butonlySeagerprovedworthy.Thatdoesn'tmeanthatConfortowillneverreachthatlevel,onlythathis"EX"ratinghighlightedtheriskin2016.

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Itisunlikelythatayoungplayerwilldevelopskillsthatheisnotcurrentlyexhibitingatall.Inotherwords,a(p,a)playerisunlikelytobecomea(S+)player.Thosespeedskillswouldhavelikelyalreadybeensomewhatevident.Itispossiblethataplayerwithbelowaverageskills(whichwouldnotregisterinhisBABSrating)mightimprovetoslightlyaboveaveragebutyoudon'twanttobestockingyourkeeperslotswithplayerswhocurrentlyhavebelowaverageskills.So,theBABSAssetsratingsforeachplayerwithExperienceriskcanbeconsideredasonlyastartingpoint.Onceaplayerreachestheplayingtimethresholds,youhavetoconsiderthathisskillsareatleast75percentbaked.Therecouldstillbegrowth,butby1000PAsand300IP,wehaveagoodsenseofwhoheis.TargetsBABSprovidesuswithtargetsforAssetsandLiabilities.Theadjustmentsyouhavetomakeheredependentirelyonwhereyouareinthecontend/rebuildcycle.Ifyouareplayingforthecurrentseason,thereshouldbenoadjustments.IfyouneedtoopenupthelimitsforExperiencerisk,dosocarefully.Justbecauseyoubelieveyouarereadytocontend,owningtoomanyplayerswithExperienceriskstillmeansyouhavetoomuchrisk.Iseethisalot.Anownerstockpilesyoungplayerswhoshowedalittlesomethingthepreviousseasonandbelievestheyformasolid,lowriskfoundation.Butifyouwentinto2016withacoreofCoreySeager,KyleSchwarber,FranciscoLindor,MiguelSano,RaiselIglesiasandLuisSeverino–congratulations,youdidagreatscoutingjob.Butoddsareyouwerebetterpositionedfor2017than2016.Ifyouareplayingforthenextseason,youcanstartopeningupthetargets.Themostimportantpointisthatyourdecisionshavetobebasedontheknowledgethatthecurrentseasonisprettymuchirrelevant(unlessyourleaguehaspenaltiesforlowfinishes).YourAssetgoalsdon’tmatter.IwouldtargetsomeplayerswithInjuryriskastheyofferprofitopportunity.AndfeelfreetostockpileplayerswithExperienceriskandgoodskills.Ifyouareplayingfortwoyearsdowntheroad,throwcautiontothewind.Targets?Targets?Wedon’tneednostinkin’targets.Essentially,thefurtheryouarefromcontending,themoreflexibilityyouhavewiththetargets.So,ifyouarelookingatarebuildingseason,youwanttostockuponyoung,highskilledplayerswithminimalconcernfortheExperienceliability.Ifyouareexpectingtocontend,youshouldstillbeasclosetothestandardbenchmarksaspossible.Perhapsthis:

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NUMBEROFPLAYERS Mixed Mixed AL/NLExperienceLiability 12-tm 15-tm 12-teamContendingTeamBATTERS 3 4 2PITCHERS 2 2 1RebuildingTeamBATTERS 6 7 4PITCHERS 4 4 3Theunderlyingthoughtprocessisthat,evenifyouroster10playerswithExperiencerisk,onlysomeofthemaregoingtopanoutandbeprotectableforsubsequentseasons.Soitisbesttostockpiletalentandhopeforthebest.

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TheBABSProjectChapter12

BABSinLeagueswithAlternativeRulesBABSprovidesadifferentwayofthinkingaboutrostermanagementinfantasyleagues,butit’svirtuallyimpossibleforonesystemtobeallthingstoallformats.Leagueswithalternativerulesorhybridstructuresaregoingtorequireabitoftweaking.However,therearesomeunderlyingfactsthatareimportanttoknow.BABSisallaboutskillandrisk.Webreakthesedownintosomebroadcategories,butthesecategoriesarenotintendedtocorrelatedirectlywithanyparticularfantasystatisticalcategory.So,whileBABSmeasurespower,thatisnotjustabouthomeruns.It’salsoaboutdoublesandtriples(forthoseleaguesthatusethose),andbyextension,therunsandRBIsthataredrivenbythosepowerstats.BABSmeasuresspeed,butthatincludesstolenbases,triplesandevenrunsscored.Theratingalsoincludeshowoftenarunnergetsagreenlightandhowoftenhestealssuccessfully,makingitamoreencompassingevaluator.TheBattingEffectivenessratingmeasureseachbatter’sabilitytomakecontact–whichincludeshisbattingeye–andhowhardhemakescontact.Yes,wecanusethisasaproxyforbattingaverage,butitalsoaffectsjustabouteveryotheroffensivestatistic.Similarly,thePitchingEffectivenessratingisnotjustERAbutmoreofanoverall“pitchingtool”metric.Itincludesstrikeoutsandwalks(ameasureofcontrol,dominanceandcommand)aswellasanormaldistributionofwhatshouldhappenwhenanopposingbathitsaball.WhileitmaynotseemlikeBABShasWHIPcovered,itdoes,thoughmoreindirectly.Thestrikeoutratingdoesmeasurejuststrikeouts,butinamorenuancedmannerbecauseitalsoincludesswingingstrikesandfirstpitchstrikes.Sincestrikeoutspreventbaserunners,whichinturnpreventruns,youcanalsosaythatthishasanindirecteffectonERAandWHIPaswell.TheBABSskillsratingsaregoodproxiesforoverallskillregardlessoftheexactcategories.Whiletheyincludetheelementsofstandard5×5rotostatistics,theyarealsofineforleaguesthatusesimilarstats,suchasdoubles,triples,sluggingaverage,SB-CS,K/9andothers.Forthoseleaguesthatuseastatlikeat-batsorinnings,thefull/mid/part-timerindicatorsareasbestasyoucandoforthat.

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Therankingoftheseskillselementsarerelativetotheirimpactonoverallrunscoringandverylooselytiedto5×5roto.Sincethereisnorealone-to-onecorrelationofaBABSratingtoafantasystat,theweightsthatyourleague’sformatrequiremightneedtobeadjusted.Forinstance,ifyouareinaleaguethatawardsvaluetobothHRsandsluggingaverage(oritscomponents),thatextraemphasisonpowerskillisnotgoingtobereflectedbythecurrentAssetGrouprankings.Youaregoingtohavetoelevatepowerhittersonyourrankinglist.Therankingsforanyskillthatismeasuredbyredundantstatcategoriesorgivengreaterweightwillneedtobeadjusted.OneOtherStatOkay,BABSdoesn’tcovereverything.Thereisonestatthatisnotanintrinsicpartoftheskillsratings.Unfortunately(orfortunately),manyleaguesuseit.Holds.Idon’tparticularlylikethiscategoryfromabaseballperspective,butitservesausefulpurposeinfantasyasitexpandsthevalueofmanyreliefpitchers.ThechallengewithHolds,likeSaves,isit’srole-based,notskills-based.YoufirsthavetoidentifywhichpitcherswillhavetherolethatputstheminpositiontogetHolds.Then,youprojecteachpitcher’snumberofholdsusingacomprehensive,integratedmulti-disciplinarysystemcalledBlindDart-Throwing.FeelfreetoaddanindicatortoBABStoidentifywhothesepitchersmightbe.Asforthe“howmany?”question,I’ddefaulttotheskills/riskratingsforguidance.Intheend,it’salways“DraftSkills,NotRoles,”right?LeagueSizesandTargetsMostalternativeleaguesadjustmentsjustrequirechangingthetargetsbasedonleaguesize.Thereisnomagichere.Allthecurrenttargetsarebasedonhowdeepaparticularleaguedraftsintothetalentpool.Ifyourleague’sdraftpenetrationissimilartooneofthethreesetsofbenchmarksI’vesetup,feelfreetousethem.Forthosethataredifferent,pro-ratethetargetssothey’reclose.Format #Tms xRoster= Depth/Pool= Penetration12-teammixed12 x23 = 276/ 750= 37%15-teammixed15 x23 = 345/ 750= 46%12-teamAL/NL12 x23 = 276/ 375= 74%Yourleague ?? x?? = ???/ ???= ???Multiplythenumberofteamsinyourleaguebyyouractiverostersize.Thatgivesyouthenumberofplayersdraftedinyourleague(Depth).Thendividethatbythetotalpopulationofplayersyouaredrafting(Pool).Ifit’sanAL/NL-onlyleague,thatnumberis375.Ifit’samixedleague,thatnumberis750.Ifyouareinahybrid

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leaguethatincludessometeamsfromoneleagueandsomefromanother,youcandothatmath.Dividingyourdraftpool(Depth)bythetotalpopulation(Pool)yieldsyourleague'spenetrationpercentage.Ifthatpercentageiswithinfivepointsorsoofoneoftheabovestandards,justusethosesametargets.Ifyourpercentageissignificantlydifferentfromtheabove,pro-ratethetargets.Ifthepenetrationpercentissmaller,increasethenumberofplayersrequiredtomeettheBABSAssetminimums,anddecreasethenumberofLiabilitylimits.Andviceversaifyourpercentageishigherthanoneofthestandards.IwouldnotfutzwiththeindividualAssetandLiabilitytargetswithineachlevel.Rememberthatit’snotaboutthestatsbuttheoverallskillandhowdeepyou’redraftingintotheplayerpool.

So….Ifmyleaguepenetrationis32%,Icanusethe12-teammixedvariables,butifit's31%,thenIhavetostartdoingmath?

Frankly,those"fivepercentagepoints"wereaballparknumber.Ifthepenetrationpercentageis37%andyourleague’sis31%,clearlythat’sstillprettyclose.Ifyouleague’sis29%,that’sfurtherawaybutmaybeit’scloseenoughforyou.Useyourjudgment.Ifyoudon'twanttodomath,thendon'tdomath.AlternativeFormatsThereisaworldoutsideofRotisseriebutIdon’tthinkIwouldmaketoomanychangestoaccommodateotherformats.Sinceit’sallabouttheskillsandrisk(therethatisagain)andnotaboutspecificcategories,mosteveryformatcanbenefitfromhowBABSexpressesthosevariables.Afewtweaks,perhaps:ScoresheetBaseball/Simulations:Thesavescategoryissuperfluousherebutthesesimgameshavealwaysbeenaboutskillsinlieuofroles.Wedon’tcaptureanydefensivemetricsbutthatisacommondeficiencyofmostothersystems.Pointsgames:GamesthataredrivenbycountingstatsandhavenoratiocategoriesareservedquitewellbyBABS’sAsset/Liabilityratings.Forexample,BABS’sPowerratingincorporatesdoublesandtriplessoitservesthepointsgamerparticularlywell.However,sinceitdoesn’tmatterwherethosepointscomefrom,looktowardtheoverallAssettargetandnotnecessarilytheindividualskillstargets.Ofcourse,ifyourleagueparametersgivespecialweighttocertainskills,dofocusonthose.Youmightneedtomakeadjustmentsintherankings.Sincestartingpitcherspotentiallyhaveelevatedvalueinthesegames,youaregoingtowanttoelevateyourmostdominantstartersontheBABSspreadsheet.Head-to-Head:DependinguponwhetheryourH2Hrulesusepointsorrotocategories,focusonanytweaksrequiredbythoseformats.ThebestH2Hplayersare

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thosewhoareconsistent,week-to-week,butthat’stoughtoprojectsoI’dstilljustfocusontheskills.IcouldsuggestloweringtheLiabilitylimitsforinjury-proneplayerssincethatpotentiallyaffectsconsistency,butreally,thatadvicecouldapplytoanyformat.InH2Hleagues,someownersemploythestrategyofignoringcertaincategories,especiallythosethataccumulatefewcountingstatsonaweeklybasis.Theweeklyvolatilityofsaves,orpossiblysteals,forinstance,providegreatbenefittothelucky.Ifyoudecidetodothis,justignorethoseratings,andpossiblyadjusttherankings.Inall,justuseyourjudgment.Nothinghereisahardandfastrule.BABSisallaboutnuance.That’swhatIloveabouther.SalaryCap:Dependinguponwhichgameyouplay,youwouldhavetoenterthefixedsalariesintoBABSandlookforplayerswheretheirsalarydoesn’tmatchupwiththeirskill/riskprofile.It’sthesameexercisewedonowforauctionleaguesexceptthatthesalariesareassignedbeforehand.No-TradingLeagues:Leaguesinwhichthereisnotradingremoveacriticaltoolfromyourin-seasonrostermanagementarsenal.Theseleaguesenactthatruleforareason,butitdoesforceyoutoadjustyourdraftstrategy.Thankfully,BABSisalreadystructuredforthemorebalancedapproachnecessaryinno-tradeleagues.Youcan'thopetodealforstealsorsaves,soyourdrafthastofocusmoreoncategoricalbalance.Andifnothingelse,BABSisallaboutbalance.DFS:Constructingarosterinthedailyfantasygameshasbecomeascience,withvirtuallydozensofvariablestoconsider.Iwouldnottinkertoomuchhere.ButBABSstillhasarole.Beforeyoufinalizeyourpitcherselections,alwayslookateachpitcher'sBABSrating.Alwaysoptforapitcherwithafoundationofpositiveassetsoversomeonewithalesserprofile.Donotuseastarterunlesshehasatleastan[e]ERArating,andinthecaseoftwopitcherDFSgames,atleastoneneedstoalsohaveaminimum[k]strikeoutrating.Higherratingsarealwaysbetter.Samebasicadvicegoesforthebatterside.Alwaysoptforaplayerwithsomepositiveassetsoversomeonewithalesserprofile.Atleastsixofyoureightbattersshouldhaveaminimum[p]powerrating.It'sokaytosprinkleinafewspeedguysbutyouwanttomakesuretheydon’trepresentthemajorityofplayers.Andnobodywithan[AV-]liabilityshouldevermakeitontoyourroster.IfaplayermeetsallthemajorcriteriaforconsiderationbuthasapoorBABSrating,itbecomesajudgmentcall.Personally,IsometimestemptfatebutI'llneverrostermorethanone"unBABSian"player,evenifalltheothercriteriapointtosolidpotential.Stayawayfromguyswhodon’thaveaminimumskillsprofile,andBABSisthefinalarbiterofthat.

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TheBABSProjectChapter13

BABSIn-SeasonTheconceptofassessingtalentusingbroadmeasures,andbalancingassetsandliabilities,appliestoallstagesofthebaseballseason.Theneedtoevaluatetalentdoesnotendevenafteryourdraftsarecompleted.BABSworksjustashardduringtheseasonasintheweeksleadinguptoit.Insomewayssheismorerelevant,especiallyearlyintheseason.Let'ssayit'searlyMayandyou'relookingatsomejuicystatsbeingputupbyaplayerwho'sneverperformedatthatlevelbefore.BABSsays,“No!Stop!Don’tlookatthosestats!Lookattheskillsprofileinstead.NomatterwhatnumbersaplayerisputtingupNOW,oddsarehisperformanceisgoingtobepulledinthedirectionofthoseAsset/Liabilitymarkers.”Infact,youmightnotevenrealizethatthenumbersaplayerispostingactuallyfittheBABSratingsperfectly.It’stoughnottobemarriedtothenumbers,butrememberthatBABSisyourmistress.Herearesomegeneralpointstokeepinmind:Assetsgenerallychangeslowly.Ifwe’vedoneagoodjobofevaluatingeachplayer’sskillduringthepre-season,thoseratingsshouldstillapply,barringanymajorchangeincircumstance.Thebroadskillsgroupingsshouldalsopreventoverreactiontosmallsamplesizes.Sodon’tbetakeninbyearlyseasonperformancesthataremarkedlydifferentfromexpectation.Playersareinconsistentasarule,andstatslikebattingaveragearevirtuallyimpossibletopindown.BABScanvalidateearlyperformance.WhenTrevorStoryopenedthe2016seasonpoundinghomerafterhomer,itcameasnosurprisethathispre-seasonratingwas[P+]ontheAssetsside.Thatratingservedtheimportantpurposeofvalidatinghisearlypoweroutburst.Ofcourse,theAssetsdon’ttellthewholestory.InStory’scase,hisAV-andEXLiabilitiesshowedthatcautionwasstillwarranted.Therewasbattingaveragedownsideandhislackofexperiencewidenedtheerrorbaronourexpectations.Thoseriskratingsareimportant.Performancesthatdovaryfromexpectationwilloftenbeexplainedbyaplayer’sLiabilityratings.

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PlayingTimewillbevolatile.WhileAssetschangeslowly,playingtimecanchangequickly.Circumstancesaffectingroleswillpushplayersaroundallseason.BABShandlesthiswellbysortingplayingtimeintothebroadcategoriesoffull-time,mid-timeandpart-time.However,yourbestcourseofactionistonotreacttoeverylittlechangeincircumstance.

• Afrontlinerpushedtothebenchmightstaythereonlyuntilsomeotherplayerslumpsandopensupaspotinthelineup.

• ANo.9hitterpusheduptotoNo.6intheordermightstaythereonlyuntil

hisfirst1-for-10slump.

• Arelieverboostedintothecloserrolemightstaythereonlyuntilhisthirdblownsave.

Ofcourse,iftheaboveplayerssucceed,thatwillhavesomeimpactontheirpotentialperformancenumbers.Buttheunderlyingriskpreventsusfromevergoingfull-inonachange,whichiswhyBABS'broadplayingtimecategoriesreflectrealitysowell.Allthismeansis,realityisfluid.Anymanagerialdecisionisgoingtostickonlyuntilthenextdecisionneedstobemade.Wecannever,ever,ever,ever,evertreatadecisionasafixedreality.Andso,inmostcases,wearenotgoingtobemakingmanychangestothebroadplayingtimeratings.Call-upsarechallenging.Promotedminorleaguersareproblematicbecausetheimpetusforthepromotionisoftenasmallsampleofminorleagueperformance.Logically,youcan’ttrustit,butteamsstillmakedecisionsbasedon100ABor50IP,orless.ForBABS,call-upsfallintotwogroups:ThefirstgroupiscomposedofplayerswhoBABSwasabletorateduringthepre-season.Thoseratingswerebasedonalargeenoughpoolofperformancedatatobecredible,sopreferencewouldbetocontinuetorelyonthoseratingsintheearly-going,atleastuntiltheplayeramassesasufficientperformancesamplethatsupportsorrefutestheoriginalrating.Thesecondgroupiscomposedofplayerswhoriseoutofnowhere.ThesewereplayerslikeJeremyHazelbakerandRossStriplingin2016.Theirvalueshotupquicklyearlyintheseason,generatedatonoffreeagentinterest,andthenflamed

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outasquicklyastheyappeared.Atthetimeofthesurge,wedidnotknowwhethertheywouldsustaintheirperformances,buttherehadtobeawaytovaluethemanyway.Thesearecrapshoots.Youcanchoosetoridethewaveofsmall-sampledatathatdrovethecall-upbutyoualsochoosetoshouldertheconcurrentrisk.Thesedays,anybreathinghumanbeingwhocanstringtogetherafewdaysofeye-openingstats–evenifthatperformanceisacompletedeparturefromanythingthatplayerhaseverdone–willgeneraterabidinterestfromscavengingowners.WARNING–SmallSampleSizeAlert!WARNING–RecencyBiasAlert!WARNING–FearofMissingOutAlert! Aaaand….we'vecomefullcircle.Yup.Youcanchoosetotakethatride,reflexivelygrabbingatanypossiblesourceof"whoknows,maybe"value.Oryoucanchoosetotakeamoremeasuredapproach,directingyourin-seasonresourcesatcommoditieswithmorejustifiableupside.TheformerprocesswillyieldmisseslikeHazelbakerandStripling,butalsoafewout-of-the-bluehitslikeAledmysDiazwasin2016.ThelatterprocesswouldyieldhitslikeMaxKeplerandTreaTurner,butalsomisseslikeJoseBerriosandArchieBradley.SoIguesseithercouldwork,thoughyouhavetothinkthatthemeasuredapproachwouldhaveahigherhitrate.BABSjustshrugshershouldersandsays,“Happyhunting!”

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TheBABSProjectChapter14

Andso…So,whatdidyouthink?

Alotofwords.Uncharacteristicallyfewnumbers,especiallyforyou.

Okay…butareyoubuyingintoanyofthis?Doyoufinallyunderstandlife,theuniverseandeverything?

Um…Ithinkso.Itallcomesdowntothis(inorderofascendingimportance):-Statsareourenemy.Precisionisfutile.Wecan'tpredictthefuture.-Playersaremorealikethantheyaredifferent.Themorethemarketplacetriestodifferentiatebetweenlike-skilledplayers,themoreopportunitythereisforDraftDayprofit.-BABScanhelpusseeallthis.BABSisourfriend.Maybeoneday,ifIcanworkupenoughnerve,BABScouldbecomemorethanjustafriend.-42.

Wow.Nice.Isurecouldhavesavedalotoftyping.

ButI'mnotdonewithyouyet,bigshot.Ihaveonelastveryimportantquestion.HowdoIknowthatallthisefforttolearnyournewsystemisgoingtogetmeanyclosertotheHolyGrail?IsitpossibleI'lljustendupinthesameplaceasIwouldhaveusingmymorefamiliarmethods?

Sure,it'spossible.Butletmeaskyouafewquestions:1.Doyouseehownumberscanbecomesogranularthattheyobscureanytruemeaning?Whileyouareobsessingoverwhethertheconsistent35-HRhitterwhoslumpedto24lastyearwillreboundenoughtobeabetterpickthantheconsistent24-HRhitterwhoslammed35lastyear,BABSisjuststockpilingpowerskill.2.Doyouseethatnoamountofprojectivetinkeringwillbeabletotellyouhowmanyplateappearancestocountonforyourstarplayerwhojusthadoff-seasonkneesurgery?BABSseparatesthatplayer'sunderlyingskillfromhisinjuryriskandstillgivesyouaplanningtoolforplayingtime.

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3.Willyourmethodsbeabletotellyouwhetheryouaretakingontoomuchinjuryrisk,orwhetheryouhaveagoodbalanceofyouthandexperience?4.Areyourmethodssimpleenoughtotellyou–ataglance–whetheryouhaveenoughpower,orspeed,orstrikeouts,withouthavingtorelyonprojectionsthatarehistoricallyfaulty? Okay,okay,Igetit.I'vegotamillionoftheserhetoricalquestions.

Icanseenow.BABSisnotjustastrategy.Sheisamindset.Sheisalifestyle.Andmaybeonedayshewillbemymistress.

So,what'snext?Whilethe"book"endshere,thediscussioncontinuesonlineatRonShandler.comwithessays,analyses,commentaries,polls,casestudies,thoughtexperimentsandtwoshotsofbourbon.Itakealookateachseason'splayers,ratingsandtrends.Duringtheoff-season,IlookatthedistributionofAssetsandLiabilitiesintheplayerpool,positionbyposition.IlookatthecompositionofinterestingAssetGroups,andanalyzethemuntilIamblueinthefingers.IsharemyHealthRiskandExperienceRiskhitlists,andreviewtheMid-Timerswiththebestupsidepotential.AndjustbeforeOpeningDay,IletBABSpredictthepennantraces,whichisatotallypointlessexercisethatisnevercorrect.Butshecan'thelpherselfandIcan'tstopher.Therearealsodownloadablechartsandcheatsheets,in-seasonratingsupdatesandaplayerdatabasewhereyoucanlookupeveryone'shistoricalBABSratings.Andtherearemessageboards,occasionalchatsandmanyopportunitiesforyoutointeractwithotherBABSophiles,andme.IfyouboughtthisebookandarenotamemberoftheRonShandler.comsite,youcanhaveaccesstoallthoseextragoodies.DetailsareintheAppendix.

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TheBABSProject

AppendixEnjoyedthisbook?YoucanupgradetoafullmembershipatRonShandler.com.MemberstoRon'swebsitehaveaccesstoallcurrentseasonratingsandrankings,downloadablespreadsheets,onlineplayerdatabase,in-seasonupdatesandongoingBABSanalysisarticles,andonandonandonandonandonandonandon.Andon.Toupgradeyourmembership,gotohttp://ronshandler.com/register-2/.CompletetheformandintheDiscountCodearea,enter8485PROJECT(inallcaps).YourcosttopurchasethisPDFwillbeappliedtotheannualmembershipfee.GoodiesHeadovertoTheBABSProject'sbookdescriptionpageatRonShandler.comforsomefreebies,comments,clarificationsandmore.AdownloadablecopyofablankBABSrosterspreadsheet(MSExcelformat)isthereaswell.BABS2.0Thisisnottheendoftheprocess;itisjustthebeginning.NowthatwehaveBABS,wearegoingtoneedmore.Sheismorethanjustaprettyface;sheisanever-evolvingentity–perhapsevenjustanembryo–sothereismuchmoredevelopmentyettocome.Ifyouhaveideashowtoimproveher,I'dlovetohearfromyou.Dropmeanoteatbaseball@ronshandler.com.Aspartofthis,wedoneedamoreautomatedapplicationtohandleBABSonDraftDay.Idon'tknowwhetherthatmeansamorerobustspreadsheetapplicationorsomeinteractiveonlinesystem.ButthereneedstobeaBABS2.0atsomepoint.I'mnotechguy,butifyouareandhaveideas,I'dlovetohearfromyou.AfewquickthankyousFirstandforemost,I'dliketothankTime.Itspassagehashelpedmeseethingsmoreclearlythanbackinthe1994BaseballForecasterwhenIwrote,"Numbersareeverything."Asalways,thankstoSue,Darielle,JustinaandMichele.Thankstoallofyouwhoarestillreadingthis.That'sit.I'mdone.Godraft.

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BABSVARIABLES SKILLExtremeImpact Top10%ofplayerswiththatskill P+,S+,A+,E+,K+SignificantImpact Top25%ofplayerswiththatskill PW,SB,AV,ER,KKModerateImpact Top50%ofplayerswiththatskill p,s,a,e,kNoprojectableimpact Bottom50%ofplayersPLAYINGTIME BATTERS PITCHER F Full-time Approx.500+PA Approx.180+IP M Mid-time Approx.300+PA Approx.100+IP P Part-time Fewerthan300PA Fewerthan100IPEXPERIENCERISK Bat SP RP

PA IP IP EX <onefullseasonofMLBexperience 500 150 75 e <twofullseasonsofMLBexperience 1,000 300 150TARGETS PTMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NL Full-timebatters 14 13 8 Allstartingpitchers 6 7 6 180+IPSPs 5 4 2 Closers 3 2 1 AssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NL Power 14 14 9 Speed 8 7 4 BattingEff. 14 14 9 PitchingEff. 7 6 4 Strikeouts 7 6 4 LiabilityMaximums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NL BattingEff. 0 0 0 HealthRisk 3 4 2 ExperienceRisk 3 4 2 PitchingEff. 0 0 0 HealthRisk 2 2 1 ExperienceRisk 2 2 1

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AbouttheAuthor

RONSHANDLERhasbeenwritingaboutfantasybaseballandbaseballanalysissince1986,andwasthefirsttodevelopsabermetricapplicationsforfantasyleagueplay.HeistheauthoroftheBaseballForecaster,anannualbookwhichhasbeenaroundsincetheReaganadministration,andthefounderofBaseballHQ.comandtheFirstPitchForumnationalconferenceseries.RonspearheadedthecreationoftheToutWarsnationalexpertscompetition,whichwasthefocusofthe2006Fantasylandbookand2010documentaryfilm.HehasfinishedTop3innationalexpertsplaydozensoftimessince1994.RonhasbeenaregularcolumnistforUSATodayandESPN.com.Hespentthe2004seasonasanadvisortotheSt.LouisCardinals.HereceivedaLifetimeAchievementAwardfromtheFantasySportsTradeAssociationin2005andwasinductedintotheFantasySportsWritersAssociationHallofFamein2012.Hiscompletebioappearshere.