1

The Askøy bridge

A before and after study

2

Motive:

Test a transport model Frequently used model, test assumptions in the transport model Describe challenges of ferry modeling What kind of effects (general, because of the bridge) are captured

by the model

3

New transport system

FØR:

ETTER:

Askøy

Bergen Sentrum

ù

Askøy

Bergen Sentrum

ù ó ó

4

Three travel surveys

1992 Bergen 1993 only on Askøy 2000 Bergen

Correspond well to the project, the Askøy bridge opened dec. 1992.

5

Model

TASS 5 design –the newest at the time of this study Model area as in an earlier model Bigger zones Three scenarioes TM92, TM93 and TM2k Zonal data for TM92 and TM93 from 1990 and for TM2k

2000 (from TASS 5) Road network from older models Not parking, few crossings coded

6

Result themes

Trip production Travel (OD-) pattern Mode choice Traffic flows

7

Trip production groups are:

1. Residence – work

2. Residence – elementary school

3. Residence – college and universities

4. Residence – shopping/service

5. Residence – Other

6. Other (= the non-home based parts of trip chains)

7. External traffic

8. Commercial traffic

8

Number of men on AskøySource: NSD (Norwegian social science dataservice)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >80 Alder

Antall menn i Askøy kommune

1990

1992

1993

1994

2000

Age

9

Number of women in Askøy Source: NSD (Norwegian social science dataservice)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >80 Alder

Antall kvinner i Askøy kommune

1990

1992

1993

1994

2000

10

Number of men and women from the zonal data

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0-17 0-17 18-24 18-24 25-39 25-39 40-59 40-59 60+ 60+

K M K M K M K M K M

Antall

1990 2000

11

Employment from travel surveys

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1992-Askøy 1992-alle 1993-Askøy 2000-Askøy 2000-alle

Ikke sysselsattElev/studentSysselsatt

12

Employment (2)

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1992 1993 2000

Annet

Deltid

Heltid

13

Employment from zonal data

28203337

6157

2393

1229

36223818

5728

9546

2575

1753

4328

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

YAKT YAKT YAKT Arb.pl Arb.pl ARBP

K M SUM Publ. Attr Ikke publ.attr SUM

Antall

1990 2000

14

Car ownership

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

1992 1993 2000 År

1 A

1 rvu

2 A

2 rvu

0 rvu

0 A

≥3 A

≥3 rvu

1 bil

2 biler

0 biler

3 eller flere biler

A=Askøy

15

Access to car

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1992 1993 2000 År

Ikke svart, i husholdning med bil

Ikke svart, i husholdning uten bil

Nei, aldri

Av og til

Som oftest

Ja, alltid

16

Trip production

Travel survey: Trip Frequency not changed for Residence – shopping/service

and Residence – Other (depended on number of people resided in Askøy)

Trip Frequency changed for Residence – work and Other (depended on number of jobs and number of people resided in Askøy)

Induced traffic ?

17

Trip distribution

The travel survey reported a change in Trip distribution, The Transport model reported other changes, but small changes

Generalised Cost (time) are too high for the trips between Askøy-Bergen with the ferry

18

Mode shares

Internal trips on Askøy – Transport model and travel survey

49 %54 %

63 %57 %

67 %59 %

11 % 4 %

8 %

4 %

9 %

5 %7 %

4 %

6 %

3 %

5 %

4 %

33 %38 %

21 %

35 %

17 %

32 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

RVU 1992 TM92 RVU 1993 TM93 RVU 2000 TM2k

Bilfører Bilpassasjer Kollektivt Gang/sykkel

19

Holder de mot RVU

Trips to -and from Askøy – Transport model and travel survey

46 %

18 %

47 %

18 %

50 %

27 %

8 %

3 %

13 %

7 %

12 %

10 %

46 %

79 %

36 %

65 %

35 %

57 %

0 % 0 % 2 %9 %

2 % 3 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

RVU 1992 TM92 RVU 1993 TM93 RVU 2000 TM2k

Bilfører Bilpassasjer Kollektivt Gang/sykkel

20

Traffic flows ferry/bridge

Year Transport model Counts

1992 5 700 2 500

1993 4 500 4 000

2000 8 600 7 000

21

Traffic flows ferry/bridge

Year Transport model Counts

1992 2 000 2 500

1993 1 600 4 000

2000 5100 7 000

22

Net assignment (3)

Ferry passengers Aadt Share

With car (light vehichles) 2 179 18 %

Without car 9 748 82 %

23

Assumtion on car ownership/car density?

Car ownership and car density

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Biltetthet [antall biler pr. 1000 innbyggere]

B0

B2+

B1

24

Assumptions in the TM

Trip frequency Shows that changes only follow increased activity in the work

marked and only affects work-trips and trip-chains in connection with the work-trips

Trips distribution You can not use distance as the only variable into TD-calculation!

Not even for external traffic or commercial traffic

Mode shares Costs connected to trips with the ferry seems too high

Car ownership Erroneous assumption about the relation between car ownership

and car density

25

Further ……

Use other cost function for ferry in Trip Distribution and Mode choice calculations

Combined trips (in TS and in TM) Change zonal data (job marked) Hierarchical logit models? Commercial traffic Test the new regional transport models