1 session ix: presentation 1. what is intelligence? 2. what is the purpose of intelligence services?...

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Session IX: PresentationSession IX: Presentation

1.1. What is intelligence?What is intelligence?

2.2. What is the purpose of intelligence services?What is the purpose of intelligence services?

3.3. What are the activities of intelligence What are the activities of intelligence services? services?

4.4. What types of intelligence services exist?What types of intelligence services exist?

5.5. How is intelligence produced?How is intelligence produced?

6.6. How to establish control and oversight over How to establish control and oversight over intelligence services?intelligence services?

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What is intelligence?What is intelligence?= = unbiasedunbiased information relevant to a information relevant to a government‘s formulation and implementation government‘s formulation and implementation of policy to further its national security interests of policy to further its national security interests and to deal with risks, dangers, and threats and to deal with risks, dangers, and threats from actual or potential adversariesfrom actual or potential adversaries

= = to find out intentions, capabilities, plans for to find out intentions, capabilities, plans for action of actual or potential opponents as well action of actual or potential opponents as well as their organization, resources, means, as their organization, resources, means, methods, communications and activitiesmethods, communications and activities

Potential or actual opponents do their best to Potential or actual opponents do their best to keep this type of information secret, and to keep this type of information secret, and to engage in disinformation, denial, deception, engage in disinformation, denial, deception, subversion and other clandestine activitiessubversion and other clandestine activities

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What is intelligenceWhat is intelligence??Multitude of definitionsMultitude of definitionshttp://intellit.muskingum.edu/whatis_folder/whatisintelintro.htmlhttp://intellit.muskingum.edu/whatis_folder/whatisintelintro.html

In general usage, intelligence denotes 5 things:In general usage, intelligence denotes 5 things:

1.1. A particular A particular knowledgeknowledge

2.2. The type of The type of organizationorganization producing that producing that knowledgeknowledge

3.3. The The activitiesactivities pursued by such organizations pursued by such organizations

4.4. The The process process guiding these activitiesguiding these activities

5.5. The The products products resulting from these activities resulting from these activities and processesand processes

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What is the purpose of intelligence?What is the purpose of intelligence?

Ensure early warningEnsure early warning

Provide long-term expertiseProvide long-term expertise

Support the national decision- and policy-Support the national decision- and policy-making processmaking process

Support national and international crisis Support national and international crisis managementmanagement

Support national defense and, in case of conflict Support national defense and, in case of conflict and war, military operationsand war, military operations

Maintain and protect secretsMaintain and protect secrets

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Raison d’être for intelligenceRaison d’être for intelligence

… … to find and interpret data and to find and interpret data and information concerning national information concerning national security that the government needs, security that the government needs, but cannot obtain from the media, but cannot obtain from the media, other government entities or from other government entities or from commercial sources better, more commercial sources better, more safely, or more cheaply safely, or more cheaply

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The scope of intelligenceThe scope of intelligence

Risks, dangers and threats: Risks, dangers and threats:

External from hostile states and External from hostile states and non-state actorsnon-state actors

Internal against the ability to Internal against the ability to govern, the use of violence to govern, the use of violence to change policies, or exclude from the change policies, or exclude from the body politic members of a given body politic members of a given ethnical, racial, or religious groupethnical, racial, or religious group

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The activities of intelligenceThe activities of intelligence CollectionCollection

Gathering of raw data and information through espionage, Gathering of raw data and information through espionage, technical means, and exploitation of ‘open sources’technical means, and exploitation of ‘open sources’

Analysis and SynthesisAnalysis and Synthesis

Process to make judgments and estimates since collected Process to make judgments and estimates since collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to divergent interpretationsdivergent interpretations

CounterintelligenceCounterintelligence

Protection of society and intelligence against harm that might Protection of society and intelligence against harm that might be inflicted by hostile intelligence services, through defensive be inflicted by hostile intelligence services, through defensive and offensive measures, counterespionage, and deception and offensive measures, counterespionage, and deception

Covert actionCovert action

To influence clandestinely events and developments abroad To influence clandestinely events and developments abroad directly through deniable actions of persuasion, propaganda directly through deniable actions of persuasion, propaganda and paramilitary operationsand paramilitary operations

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Level of abstractionLevel of abstraction Information process flowInformation process flow Processes Processes

ApplicationProcess applying knowledge to

effectively implement plan or action to achieve desired goal or end state

UnderstandingProcess of comprehending static

and dynamic relationship between sets of information and the process of synthesizing models to explain

those relationships

OrganizationProcess of aligning transforming,

filtering, sorting, indexing and storing data elements in relational context for subsequent retrieval

ObservationProcess of collecting and dispatching quantitative

measurements to appropriate processing

WisdomKnowledge effectively

applied

LeadershipDecision makingDecision aiding

KnowledgeInformation understood

and explained

InformationData placed in context indexed and organized

DataMeasurements and

observations

Physical process

Inference (Induction, Deduction, Abduction)

Reasoning Uncertainty management

AlignmentCorrelation association

ExtrapolationDeconflicting

PreposessingCalibration

FilteringIndexing

SensingCollection

MeasurementMessage sparsingData acquisition

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What types of intelligence services exist?What types of intelligence services exist?

ExternalExternal or or Foreign Foreign Intelligence ServicesIntelligence Services

Internal Internal or or Domestic Domestic Intelligence Services, often Intelligence Services, often also called also called Security ServicesSecurity Services

Military Military or or Defense Defense Intelligence ServicesIntelligence Services

CriminalCriminal Intelligence Services Intelligence Services

Special BranchesSpecial Branches for intelligence collection for intelligence collection (for (for SIGINT e.g. the US NSA, the UK’s GCHQ, the Russian SIGINT e.g. the US NSA, the UK’s GCHQ, the Russian FAPSI, and for IMINT e.g. the US NGA and the NRO that FAPSI, and for IMINT e.g. the US NGA and the NRO that operates satellites)operates satellites)

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Intelligence organizationIntelligence organization

External External oror Foreign Intelligence Service Foreign Intelligence Service producing producing intelligence relevant to intelligence relevant to external securityexternal security and for and for warning – requires knowledge of the risks, dangers, warning – requires knowledge of the risks, dangers, threats, and opportunities, and about the likelihood of threats, and opportunities, and about the likelihood of events and outcomesevents and outcomes

Internal Internal oror Domestic Intelligence Service Domestic Intelligence Service producing producing intelligence relevant to intelligence relevant to internal securityinternal security: for the : for the protection of the state, its constitutional order, the protection of the state, its constitutional order, the society, and the integrity of its territory, air- and sea-society, and the integrity of its territory, air- and sea-space from foreign influenced activities such as space from foreign influenced activities such as subversion, espionage, sabotage, and politically subversion, espionage, sabotage, and politically motivated violencemotivated violence

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Purposes and targets of Purposes and targets of foreign intelligenceforeign intelligence and and domesticdomestic or or security intelligencesecurity intelligence collection differ. So too collection differ. So too do the nature and extent of the risks to which they give do the nature and extent of the risks to which they give rise. It is important that the management, control and rise. It is important that the management, control and accountability arrangements reflect these differences. accountability arrangements reflect these differences. Because of the intrusive nature of the powers of Because of the intrusive nature of the powers of internal intelligence services, and the fact that internal intelligence services, and the fact that collection is executed domestically, potentially against collection is executed domestically, potentially against the own citizens, the own citizens, domesticdomestic or or security intelligencesecurity intelligence requires stricter controls to ensure that domestic requires stricter controls to ensure that domestic security and safety are appropriately balanced against security and safety are appropriately balanced against the rights of individual citizens and residents the rights of individual citizens and residents

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MilitaryMilitary or or Defense IntelligenceDefense Intelligence Services Services producing intelligence relevant for producing intelligence relevant for defense planning, the armed forces, and defense planning, the armed forces, and support to military operationssupport to military operations

Criminal IntelligenceCriminal Intelligence Services produce Services produce intelligence on organized crime groups, intelligence on organized crime groups, corruption, and criminal activities with an corruption, and criminal activities with an aim to prosecution aim to prosecution

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Distinction between Distinction between externalexternal and and internalinternal has never been absolute has never been absolute Traditional limits between Traditional limits between external, internalexternal, internal, and also , and also criminal criminal

intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred, hence artificial and intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred, hence artificial and questionable, since there is convergence, notably in countering questionable, since there is convergence, notably in countering terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation

This is why smaller countries with fewer resources might prefer to have This is why smaller countries with fewer resources might prefer to have just 1 intelligence organizationjust 1 intelligence organization

This avoids wasting efforts, resources and time; solves the risk of This avoids wasting efforts, resources and time; solves the risk of unhealthy competition between the different agencies; simplifies unhealthy competition between the different agencies; simplifies contacts, intelligence exchange, and cooperation with foreign contacts, intelligence exchange, and cooperation with foreign intelligence services; facilitates high subordination of intelligence in the intelligence services; facilitates high subordination of intelligence in the state’s hierarchy and also coordination efforts and cooperation with state’s hierarchy and also coordination efforts and cooperation with other ministries and agencies; and alleviates control and oversight of other ministries and agencies; and alleviates control and oversight of intelligence intelligence

Among others, the Among others, the Spanish CNISpanish CNI, the , the Dutch AIDVDutch AIDV, the , the Turkish MITTurkish MIT, and , and OSA of Bosnia-HerzegovinaOSA of Bosnia-Herzegovina are ‘fused’ intelligence agencies are ‘fused’ intelligence agencies

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Major categories of nation-state intelligenceMajor categories of nation-state intelligence

FocusFocus Object of analysisObject of analysis Reporting cycleReporting cycle

Strategic and national intelligenceStrategic and national intelligence (for national decision-makers & policymakers)(for national decision-makers & policymakers)Understanding of current andUnderstanding of current and Foreign PolicyForeign Policy Infrequent year/monthInfrequent year/monthfuture status + behavior of foreignfuture status + behavior of foreign Political posturePolitical posture long-term estimates &long-term estimates &nations + non-state actorsnations + non-state actors National stabilityNational stability projections months/yearsprojections months/years

SocioeconomicsSocioeconomicsEstimates of the state of global Estimates of the state of global Cultural ideologies Cultural ideologies long-term analysislong-term analysisactivitiesactivities Foreign relations Foreign relations months/yearsmonths/years

Science & TechnologyScience & TechnologyIndications & Warnings of threatsIndications & Warnings of threats IntentionsIntentions frequent status reportsfrequent status reports weekly/dailyweekly/daily

Military operational intelligenceMilitary operational intelligence (for military leadership)(for military leadership)Understanding of military Understanding of military Order of battleOrder of battle Continually updatedContinually updatedpowers, OB, future potential,powers, OB, future potential, Military doctrineMilitary doctrine status databasesstatus databasestechnological maturitytechnological maturity Science & TechnologyScience & Technology I&W hours/daysI&W hours/days

Command structureCommand structureC4IRS + Force strengthC4IRS + Force strength Crisis analysisCrisis analysisForce status + intentForce status + intent daily/hourlydaily/hourly

Military tactical intelligenceMilitary tactical intelligence (for commanders and units)(for commanders and units)Real-time understanding ofReal-time understanding of Military platformsMilitary platforms Command & fire support Command & fire support military units, force structure +military units, force structure + Force + operationsForce + operations Situational awarenessSituational awarenesscurrent behavior in the fieldcurrent behavior in the field Courses of actionCourses of action Applications min/hoursApplications min/hours

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Traditional and new intelligenceTraditional and new intelligenceTraditional FocusTraditional Focus New FocusNew Focus

A few large nation-state threatsA few large nation-state threats Many diverse and empowered non-Many diverse and empowered non-state actor threatsstate actor threats

Threats caused by continuity ofThreats caused by continuity of Threats resulting from discontinuitiesThreats resulting from discontinuitiesworld affairsworld affairs in world affairsin world affairs

Centralized intelligenceCentralized intelligence Distributed intelligenceDistributed intelligence

Focus on collection and secretFocus on collection and secret Focus on analysis, collaboration, openFocus on analysis, collaboration, opensourcessources and closed sourcesand closed sources

Targets are known, continuous,Targets are known, continuous, Targets unknown, discontinuous, andTargets unknown, discontinuous, andpredictablepredictable unpredictableunpredictable

Intelligence management on tacticalIntelligence management on tactical Intelligence management on strategic,Intelligence management on strategic,operational, measurable objectivesoperational, measurable objectives anticipatory, adaptive objectivesanticipatory, adaptive objectives

Hierarchical analysis organizationHierarchical analysis organization Networked analysis organization andNetworked analysis organization andand controland control collaborationcollaboration

Focus on intelligence Focus on intelligence as productas product Focus on intelligence Focus on intelligence as a serviceas a service

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The intelligence cycleThe intelligence cycle

ProcessingProcessing CollectionCollection

Planning and Planning and directiondirectionAnalysis-synthesisAnalysis-synthesis

productionproduction

DisseminationDissemination

Intelligence Intelligence consumersconsumers

Intelligence products

Finished Intelligence

Processedinformatio

nRaw

Intelligence data

Plans

Consumerrequirements

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Planning and directionPlanning and direction

Involves Involves management of entire intelligence effortmanagement of entire intelligence effort, from , from identification of the need for data that is derived from threat identification of the need for data that is derived from threat assessment or the priority listing of yet unsolved strategy and assessment or the priority listing of yet unsolved strategy and policy issues, deciding which nations or groups abroad and at policy issues, deciding which nations or groups abroad and at home warrant intelligence surveillance, to the final delivery of home warrant intelligence surveillance, to the final delivery of intelligence product to the customer intelligence product to the customer

Process initiated by requests or requirements for intelligence Process initiated by requests or requirements for intelligence based on the ultimate needs of the customer – the President, based on the ultimate needs of the customer – the President, Prime Minister, National Security Council, ministers or other Prime Minister, National Security Council, ministers or other government agenciesgovernment agencies

Requests are parsed into information required, then to data that Requests are parsed into information required, then to data that must be collected to estimate or infer required answers must be collected to estimate or infer required answers

Data requirements are used to establish a plan of collection, which Data requirements are used to establish a plan of collection, which details elements of data needed and the targets − people, places, details elements of data needed and the targets − people, places, and things – from which data may be obtainedand things – from which data may be obtained

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Collection Collection

Establish collection planEstablish collection plan

Tasking of human and technical sources Tasking of human and technical sources of collection to collect required data of collection to collect required data

and informationand information

All collection disciplines should be All collection disciplines should be engaged against the same targetengaged against the same target

The The sourcessources and and methodsmethods are among the are among the most fragile – and most highly protected – most fragile – and most highly protected – elements of the processelements of the process

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Intelligence collection categoriesIntelligence collection categories

OSINTOSINT Open source intelligenceOpen source intelligence

HUMINTHUMINT Human intelligenceHuman intelligence

SIGINTSIGINT Signals intelligenceSignals intelligence

MASINTMASINT Measurements and signatures Measurements and signatures intelligenceintelligence

IMINTIMINT Imagery intelligenceImagery intelligence

CNECNE Computer network exploitationComputer network exploitation

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OSINTOSINT Foreign radio and television news sourcesForeign radio and television news sources Foreign printed materials: studies, books, Foreign printed materials: studies, books,

magazines, periodicals, journalsmagazines, periodicals, journals Gray literature – printed and electronicGray literature – printed and electronic Openly available reportsOpenly available reports Diplomatic + Attaché reportingDiplomatic + Attaché reporting HF radio, telecom, Internet conversationsHF radio, telecom, Internet conversations Foreign network computer sourcesForeign network computer sources Reports and forecast from businessmen, Reports and forecast from businessmen,

travelers, universities, think tanks, etctravelers, universities, think tanks, etc

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HUMINTHUMINT

Reports from agents and spies abroadReports from agents and spies abroad

Reports from residents of intelligence servicesReports from residents of intelligence services

Debriefings of defectors, turn-coats, walk-insDebriefings of defectors, turn-coats, walk-ins

Interrogation of prisoners and criminalsInterrogation of prisoners and criminals

Information Information gleaned from foreign residentsgleaned from foreign residents

Discussions with personnel in foreign nationsDiscussions with personnel in foreign nations

Reports Reports from counterintelligence operationsfrom counterintelligence operations

Messages from friendly third-party sourcesMessages from friendly third-party sources

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SIGINTSIGINTData and information collection through intercepts of radio, radar, Data and information collection through intercepts of radio, radar, or other electronic emissions, including laser, visible light, and or other electronic emissions, including laser, visible light, and electro opticselectro optics

5 subsets of SIGINT collection disciplines:5 subsets of SIGINT collection disciplines:

COMINTCOMINT communications traffic monitoringcommunications traffic monitoring

ELINTELINT electromagnetic signals monitoringelectromagnetic signals monitoring

externals:externals: events, activities, relationships, events, activities, relationships, frequency of occurrence, modes, frequency of occurrence, modes, sequences, patterns, signaturessequences, patterns, signatures

internals:internals: contents contents

CRYPINT CRYPINT decryption of ciphered messagesdecryption of ciphered messages

FISINTFISINT foreign instrumentation signals foreign instrumentation signals intelligenceintelligence

TELINTTELINT telemetry, beacons, video links, etctelemetry, beacons, video links, etc

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MASINTMASINT

Exploitation of: Exploitation of: physical properties: nuclear, biological, physical properties: nuclear, biological, chemical, and materials compositionchemical, and materials composition

multi- and hyperspectral imagery datamulti- and hyperspectral imagery data derived derived from from analysis of emitted and reflected analysis of emitted and reflected energy energy across the spectrum of light: radio across the spectrum of light: radio frequencies, frequencies, infrared, UV, lasers, electronicinfrared, UV, lasers, electronic

mechanical sound, shock waves, acousticsmechanical sound, shock waves, acoustics

magnetic propertiesmagnetic properties

vibration and motionvibration and motion

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IMINTIMINT

Imagery − also referred to as PHOTINTImagery − also referred to as PHOTINT Air and space imageryAir and space imagery

Satellite signals and data streams received and Satellite signals and data streams received and reconstructed as images from reflections of several bands reconstructed as images from reflections of several bands across the spectrum of light – some visible, some invisible, across the spectrum of light – some visible, some invisible, like from IR or UV spectral analysislike from IR or UV spectral analysis

Photography, film, video and high-definition TV and other Photography, film, video and high-definition TV and other image-capturing technologies from aircraft and UAVimage-capturing technologies from aircraft and UAV

Used for surveillance, monitoring, weather forecast to earth Used for surveillance, monitoring, weather forecast to earth mappingmapping

Terrestrial and video imageryTerrestrial and video imagery

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CNECNE

Computer network exploitationComputer network exploitation

Network analysis and monitoring Network analysis and monitoring

Message interception Message interception

Traffic analysisTraffic analysis

Computer intrusion Computer intrusion

PenetrationPenetration

Exploitation Exploitation of data-banksof data-banks

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ProcessingProcessing

Conversion of vast amount of data collected to a more Conversion of vast amount of data collected to a more suitable form for production – machine and foreign suitable form for production – machine and foreign language translation, decryption, rendering texts or language translation, decryption, rendering texts or pictures readable, etcpictures readable, etc

Indexing and sorting of data by subject matter and data Indexing and sorting of data by subject matter and data reduction – interpretation of information stored on film reduction – interpretation of information stored on film and tape through highly refined photographic and and tape through highly refined photographic and electronic processes − and organizing of data in an electronic processes − and organizing of data in an information base, making it available for rapid computer information base, making it available for rapid computer retrievalretrieval

Progress on meeting the requirements of the collection Progress on meeting the requirements of the collection plan is monitored and tasking may be refined on the plan is monitored and tasking may be refined on the basis of received databasis of received data

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Intelligence Intelligence == Knowledge Knowledge of the hidden + of the hidden + foreknowledgeforeknowledge of the unpredictable of the unpredictable

The prelude to decision and action by national The prelude to decision and action by national decision-makers, policymakers, military leadershipdecision-makers, policymakers, military leadership

Knowledge that helps consumers and clients to Knowledge that helps consumers and clients to consider alternative options and outcomesconsider alternative options and outcomes

Process of collection of facts, their analysis, quick and Process of collection of facts, their analysis, quick and clear evaluations, production of assessments and clear evaluations, production of assessments and warnings, and timely dissemination to consumerswarnings, and timely dissemination to consumers

Analytical process that must be rigorous, timely, and Analytical process that must be rigorous, timely, and relevant to policy needs and concernsrelevant to policy needs and concerns

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Vast majority of collected information is Vast majority of collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to widely divergent interpretationto widely divergent interpretation

Thus, process of collation, analysis and Thus, process of collation, analysis and evaluation of all available raw and «all-evaluation of all available raw and «all-source» information and its transformation source» information and its transformation into intelligence is vital to make into intelligence is vital to make judgments about judgments about intentions, capabilitiesintentions, capabilities and and actionsactions of opponents of opponents

Best performed close to users of productBest performed close to users of product

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DisseminationDissemination

Finished Intelligence disseminated to consumers in a Finished Intelligence disseminated to consumers in a variety of forms – reports to oral briefings − and formats: variety of forms – reports to oral briefings − and formats: from dynamic operating pictures to formal reports to from dynamic operating pictures to formal reports to policymakerspolicymakers

3 categories distinguished by past, present, and future 3 categories distinguished by past, present, and future focus:focus:

Current intelligenceCurrent intelligence: news-like reports describing : news-like reports describing recent events or Indications & Warningsrecent events or Indications & Warnings

Basic intelligenceBasic intelligence: complete description of a : complete description of a specific specific situation (Order-of-Battle, political situation, etc)situation (Order-of-Battle, political situation, etc)

Intelligence estimatesIntelligence estimates: predicting feasible future : predicting feasible future outcomes as result of current situation, constraints, outcomes as result of current situation, constraints, and possible influencesand possible influences

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2 phases mostly overlooked in the process2 phases mostly overlooked in the process

Consumption & feedbackConsumption & feedback

How, and in which form, policymakers consume How, and in which form, policymakers consume intelligence and the degree to which intelligence is used intelligence and the degree to which intelligence is used are important issuesare important issues

Relationship with decision-makers should be an active Relationship with decision-makers should be an active and not a passive one = dialogue between consumer and not a passive one = dialogue between consumer and producerand producer

However, objectivity demands a certain distance and a However, objectivity demands a certain distance and a willingness to consider all variables – not just the ones willingness to consider all variables – not just the ones the analyst or his customer has deemed most important the analyst or his customer has deemed most important in the pastin the past

Customers should give producers some sense of how Customers should give producers some sense of how well their requirements are being met and discuss any well their requirements are being met and discuss any adjustments that need to be made to any parts of the adjustments that need to be made to any parts of the process process

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Core mission of productsCore mission of products

Support of security policy and foreign policySupport of security policy and foreign policy

Detection of activities that threaten security and Detection of activities that threaten security and national interestsnational interests

Ascertain superiority in information warfareAscertain superiority in information warfare

Support to defense & homeland defense planningSupport to defense & homeland defense planning

Support for military operationsSupport for military operations

Provide intelligence on economic matters that could Provide intelligence on economic matters that could affect national interests and trade negotiationsaffect national interests and trade negotiations

Support to monitoring of treaties, other agreements, Support to monitoring of treaties, other agreements, embargoes, etcembargoes, etc

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Intelligence Intelligence productsproducts Warnings and warning reportsWarnings and warning reports

Current situation reportsCurrent situation reports

AnalysesAnalyses

BriefingsBriefings

AssessmentsAssessments

Estimates Estimates

Research – in-depth study of an issueResearch – in-depth study of an issue

= tailored output that meets the specific user needs, is = tailored output that meets the specific user needs, is accurate, timely, and persuades through analytic accurate, timely, and persuades through analytic tradecrafttradecraft

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Products of internal intelligenceProducts of internal intelligence EspionageEspionage Sabotage and subversionSabotage and subversion TerrorismTerrorism Political, ethnic, and religious extremismPolitical, ethnic, and religious extremism Organized crimeOrganized crime CorruptionCorruption Narcotics production and traffickingNarcotics production and trafficking Money faking and money launderingMoney faking and money laundering ProliferationProliferation Illegal arms dealing and smugglingIllegal arms dealing and smuggling Illegal immigrationIllegal immigration Electronic attacks, hacking & child-pornographyElectronic attacks, hacking & child-pornography

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Products should contain:Products should contain: What is knownWhat is known – the facts – the facts How it is knownHow it is known – the sources where possible – the sources where possible What drives judgmentWhat drives judgment – linchpin assumptions – linchpin assumptions The impact if the drivers changeThe impact if the drivers change – alternative – alternative

outcomesoutcomes And And what remains unknownwhat remains unknown

Overarching goal: to minimize the uncertainty with Overarching goal: to minimize the uncertainty with which policymakers must grapple in making decisions which policymakers must grapple in making decisions about national security and foreign policyabout national security and foreign policy

Must help to make sense of complex issues and to call Must help to make sense of complex issues and to call attention to emerging problems or threatsattention to emerging problems or threats

Important: not only determine what is accurate, but also Important: not only determine what is accurate, but also what is relevant to the policymaker’s needswhat is relevant to the policymaker’s needs and and aspirations aspirations

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AccountabilityAccountabilityThe obligation to demonstrate, and be The obligation to demonstrate, and be

responsible for, performance in the light of responsible for, performance in the light of agreed expectationsagreed expectations

Prerequisites:Prerequisites:

1.1. Clear and agreed roles and responsibilitiesClear and agreed roles and responsibilities

2.2. Clear and agreed expectations of what is to be done Clear and agreed expectations of what is to be done and how, what is not to be done, and what is to be and how, what is not to be done, and what is to be achievedachieved

3.3. Performance expectations that are balanced by the Performance expectations that are balanced by the relevant capacities of each partyrelevant capacities of each party

4.4. Timely and credible reporting of performance achieved Timely and credible reporting of performance achieved in the light of expectationsin the light of expectations

5.5. Review and feedback on the performance reported, Review and feedback on the performance reported, such that achievements are recognized and necessary such that achievements are recognized and necessary corrections madecorrections made

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Control and Supervision of Intelligence Control and Supervision of Intelligence ServicesServices

Regardless of the particular form of control Regardless of the particular form of control adopted in democracies, most relevant adopted in democracies, most relevant democratic control of intelligence services and democratic control of intelligence services and their activities is exercised by their activities is exercised by executive, executive, legislativelegislative and and judicialjudicial entities entities

Every element plays its specific role within the Every element plays its specific role within the whole package of whole package of control, accountabilitycontrol, accountability and and oversight oversight

The purpose is to provide The purpose is to provide assurance of legality,assurance of legality, proportionality proportionality and and proprietypropriety for activities that for activities that are necessarily conducted in secretare necessarily conducted in secret

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Democratic control of intelligenceDemocratic control of intelligence

Executive controlExecutive control

Legislative oversightLegislative oversight

Judicial control and supervisionJudicial control and supervision

Informal and indirect supervision by Informal and indirect supervision by the the publicpublic

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5 basic principles for intelligence 5 basic principles for intelligence servicesservices

1.1. Provide effective intelligence essential Provide effective intelligence essential to the security of the nationto the security of the nation

2.2. Have an adequate legal frameworkHave an adequate legal framework

3.3. Have an effective management systemHave an effective management system

4.4. Be effectively accountableBe effectively accountable

5.5. Be open to internal and external review Be open to internal and external review and to parliamentary oversightand to parliamentary oversight

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Executive control and supervisionExecutive control and supervisionExecutive controlExecutive control = the decisive role= the decisive role

The higher the echelon of executive control The higher the echelon of executive control and supervision, and the greater the and supervision, and the greater the seriousness with which it executes its task, seriousness with which it executes its task, the lesser the likelihood of problems the lesser the likelihood of problems accruing to the government from judicial accruing to the government from judicial supervision and legislative oversightsupervision and legislative oversight

It is the executive which is fully responsible It is the executive which is fully responsible for the proper controls and auditing of for the proper controls and auditing of intelligence services, thus creating the intelligence services, thus creating the necessary base for transparency and necessary base for transparency and parliamentary oversightparliamentary oversight

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Executive control and supervisionExecutive control and supervision

ControlControl in the narrowest sense: ensuring that in the narrowest sense: ensuring that specific procedures are followedspecific procedures are followed

ControlControl in the broadest sense: creating the in the broadest sense: creating the conditions that lead to the achievement of conditions that lead to the achievement of agreed standards of performance as well as agreed standards of performance as well as compliance with law and policycompliance with law and policy

Control may be exercised by both Control may be exercised by both formalformal and and informalinformal meansmeans

FormalFormal means: to ensure conformity of means: to ensure conformity of activities with policy and procedures, proper activities with policy and procedures, proper authorizations, funding, audit, and reviewauthorizations, funding, audit, and review

InformalInformal means: focus on ethics, values, and means: focus on ethics, values, and leadershipleadership

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Executive control and supervisionExecutive control and supervision Policymaker directionPolicymaker direction = both the = both the foundationfoundation

and the and the catalystcatalyst for the work of for the work of intelligenceintelligence If intelligence does not receive direction, the If intelligence does not receive direction, the

chances of resources being misdirected and chances of resources being misdirected and wasted increasewasted increase

Intelligence services need to know what Intelligence services need to know what information to collect and when it is neededinformation to collect and when it is needed

They need to know if their products are They need to know if their products are useful and how they may be improved to useful and how they may be improved to better serve policymakersbetter serve policymakers

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Main tasks of executive control:Main tasks of executive control:

Make sure that intelligence functions Make sure that intelligence functions properlyproperly

That intelligence ask the right questionsThat intelligence ask the right questions

Collect the right informationCollect the right information

Respond to decisionmaker’s needsRespond to decisionmaker’s needs

Are rigorous in analysisAre rigorous in analysis

Have on hand the right capabilitiesHave on hand the right capabilities

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Of particular importance for executive Of particular importance for executive control is:control is:

To identify intelligence failuresTo identify intelligence failures

To take action to prevent them from To take action to prevent them from occurring in the futureoccurring in the future

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The misuse of intelligence services The misuse of intelligence services by government for its own political by government for its own political ends must be excluded. To this end: ends must be excluded. To this end:

intelligence services should be at intelligence services should be at arms length from policymakersarms length from policymakers

should should not be affiliated with any not be affiliated with any partyparty

must be must be neutral neutral or or depoliticizeddepoliticized

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Control, supervision, and oversight Control, supervision, and oversight of intelligence servicesof intelligence services

Internal & external control and supervision Internal & external control and supervision can take any number of formscan take any number of forms

Inspector GeneralsInspector Generals

Staff capacityStaff capacity of Minister of Minister

Separate Separate Committees for Intelligence Committees for Intelligence SupervisionSupervision and for and for Intelligence Policy Intelligence Policy ReviewReview

AuditAudit

OmbudsmanOmbudsman

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An external audit serves 3 An external audit serves 3 purposes:purposes:

To assess To assess compliance with the lawcompliance with the law, ensuring that , ensuring that those given executive authority exercise this those given executive authority exercise this authority with their assigned responsibilities: to authority with their assigned responsibilities: to review behavior, identify poor administration, review behavior, identify poor administration, and who should be held accountableand who should be held accountable

To assess To assess performance performance in public management in in public management in order to contribute to organizational learningorder to contribute to organizational learning

Compliance auditing: Compliance auditing: scrutinizing accountsscrutinizing accounts to to see if money has been spent as allocated, and see if money has been spent as allocated, and to assess the to assess the efficiencyefficiency and and effectivenesseffectiveness of of financial allocationsfinancial allocations

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OmbudsmanOmbudsman

Can be given powers to investigate Can be given powers to investigate alleged violation of human rights by alleged violation of human rights by intelligence servicesintelligence services

Negotiate with civil servantsNegotiate with civil servants

Report to legislature and make proposalsReport to legislature and make proposals

Inform the public about the results of Inform the public about the results of inquiriesinquiries

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Parliamentary OversightParliamentary Oversight

Preferably Preferably SpecialSpecial or or Select CommitteesSelect Committees of of legislators, including opposition, who pass legislators, including opposition, who pass background security check, take secrecy oath, background security check, take secrecy oath, and are neither associated with the services and are neither associated with the services nor with those to whom the services reportnor with those to whom the services report

Must have power and will to deter violations of Must have power and will to deter violations of law or failure of performancelaw or failure of performance

Should have adequately trained staffShould have adequately trained staff

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In all aspects of In all aspects of governancegovernance and and expenditure of public moneyexpenditure of public money, Parliaments , Parliaments have an essential role in have an essential role in monitoringmonitoring and and scrutinizing policyscrutinizing policy and and budgetsbudgets

The budget represents the culmination of The budget represents the culmination of intelligence requirements and, at the intelligence requirements and, at the same time, the contribution required same time, the contribution required from the taxpayer – the electorate at from the taxpayer – the electorate at large to whom the parliamentarians are large to whom the parliamentarians are most directly responsiblemost directly responsible

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The further role of Parliament:The further role of Parliament:

1.1. OversightOversight

2.2. Giving a second opinionGiving a second opinion

3.3. Ensuring transparencyEnsuring transparency

4.4. Providing a link between intelligence Providing a link between intelligence and security services and the public and security services and the public at largeat large

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OversightOversight = a process, not an = a process, not an eventevent

Should be Should be proactiveproactive and and reactivereactive

ProactiveProactive in anticipating issues in anticipating issues

ReactiveReactive in initiating hearings and in initiating hearings and inquiries when problems or scandals inquiries when problems or scandals occuroccur

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Monitoring implementation of legislationMonitoring implementation of legislation

= goes to the heart of the oversight = goes to the heart of the oversight

role:role:

Determine whether legislation is Determine whether legislation is

effective and having the desired resultseffective and having the desired results

Insuring that the laws give government Insuring that the laws give government

and civil society sufficient powers to and civil society sufficient powers to

supervise intelligencesupervise intelligence

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OversightOversight involves 2 elements:involves 2 elements:

1. Holding government 1. Holding government accountable accountable for:for:

- the intelligence funds it requires- the intelligence funds it requires

- the way it spends these funds- the way it spends these funds

2. Influencing the implementation of 2. Influencing the implementation of intelligence and security policyintelligence and security policy

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Giving a second opinionGiving a second opinion

Parliamentarians have a strong sense of Parliamentarians have a strong sense of

what people will accept. Some have what people will accept. Some have

considerable foreign policy expertise. Thus, considerable foreign policy expertise. Thus,

Parliament can provide a second opinion in – Parliament can provide a second opinion in –

closed – sessions of oversight committeesclosed – sessions of oversight committees

On sensitive matters which can involve great On sensitive matters which can involve great

costs and dangers for the nation, a second costs and dangers for the nation, a second

opinion can be vitalopinion can be vital

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Ensuring TransparencyEnsuring Transparency

Through debates, hearings and reports, legislators Through debates, hearings and reports, legislators can make intelligence more transparentcan make intelligence more transparent

While proceedings are secret, much information is While proceedings are secret, much information is disclosed to the public through annual reportsdisclosed to the public through annual reports

The role of the Committees is to The role of the Committees is to balance securitybalance security and and libertyliberty. But care must be taken that disclosure . But care must be taken that disclosure does not damage the ability of intelligence does not damage the ability of intelligence services to accomplish their missionservices to accomplish their mission

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Providing a link between intelligence and Providing a link between intelligence and security services and the public at largesecurity services and the public at large

As a general rule, intelligence should:As a general rule, intelligence should:

Keep Oversight Committee fully and currently Keep Oversight Committee fully and currently informed of activitiesinformed of activities

Provide Committee upon request with any Provide Committee upon request with any information or document in possessioninformation or document in possession

Report information on activities that are illegal Report information on activities that are illegal or or improper, and corrective actions taken or improper, and corrective actions taken or plannedplanned

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Critical issues of legislative Critical issues of legislative oversightoversightTo keep a To keep a balance between independencebalance between independence andand criticismcriticism and the and the maintenance of a working maintenance of a working relationshiprelationship between the Committee and the between the Committee and the intelligence serviceintelligence service

Intelligence is one of the only areas of government Intelligence is one of the only areas of government activity where risk-taking and innovative thinking activity where risk-taking and innovative thinking should be encouragedshould be encouraged

Intelligence is a domain that relies heavily on the Intelligence is a domain that relies heavily on the professional judgment and candor of intelligence professional judgment and candor of intelligence personnelpersonnel

And intelligence is highly dependent upon And intelligence is highly dependent upon cooperation of other agencies, foreign cooperation of other agencies, foreign governments, and individualsgovernments, and individuals

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Critical issues of legislative Critical issues of legislative oversightoversight

What the overseers do in public has effect beyond the What the overseers do in public has effect beyond the circumstances of a particular inquiry or investigationcircumstances of a particular inquiry or investigation

While the Committee is naturally eager to demonstrate While the Committee is naturally eager to demonstrate that their oversight is effective, they must always be that their oversight is effective, they must always be aware of the inherent danger that statements and aware of the inherent danger that statements and actions might distort the public’s perception of actions might distort the public’s perception of intelligence, create an unfavorable impression among intelligence, create an unfavorable impression among potential sources, agencies of cooperation, foreign potential sources, agencies of cooperation, foreign services and governments, and undermine the moral of services and governments, and undermine the moral of intelligence personnelintelligence personnel

Thus, legislative oversight has to be determinedly Thus, legislative oversight has to be determinedly non-non-partisanpartisan and and discreetdiscreet, and , and hearings should be fairhearings should be fair

Oversight should be more Oversight should be more inquisitorialinquisitorial than than adversarialadversarial

And Committee should broaden range of oversight And Committee should broaden range of oversight beyond the intelligence service to beyond the intelligence service to users of intelligenceusers of intelligence

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Control, supervision, and oversight Control, supervision, and oversight of intelligence servicesof intelligence services

Judicial control and supervisionJudicial control and supervision

Must review and interpret the Must review and interpret the constitutionality of all lawsconstitutionality of all laws

Must set limits intended to achieve the Must set limits intended to achieve the proper balance between the protection of proper balance between the protection of individual rights and the acquisition of individual rights and the acquisition of essential informationessential information

Must review the warrants issued by ministersMust review the warrants issued by ministers

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Judicial control and supervisionJudicial control and supervision““Best practices”Best practices” are: are: That intelligence services consider themselves to That intelligence services consider themselves to

be bound by the Constitution and laws, including be bound by the Constitution and laws, including treaty obligations and international law, in the treaty obligations and international law, in the same way as they are bound by executive orders, same way as they are bound by executive orders, guidelines, and government directivesguidelines, and government directives

To establish guidelines for To establish guidelines for internal intelligenceinternal intelligence, , ideally approved by the Attorney General, that ideally approved by the Attorney General, that govern collection, analysis, and dissemination of govern collection, analysis, and dissemination of information on citizens and resident aliensinformation on citizens and resident aliens

To have guidelines for To have guidelines for external intelligenceexternal intelligence that that limit use of personnel from humanitarian limit use of personnel from humanitarian organizations, ICRC and national Red Cross organizations, ICRC and national Red Cross organizations, aid and development workers, organizations, aid and development workers, clergy, media personnel, etc.clergy, media personnel, etc.

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Informal and indirect supervision Informal and indirect supervision by the publicby the public

Civil society organizations:Civil society organizations:

NGOsNGOs

LobbiesLobbies

Pressure and human rights groupsPressure and human rights groups

Political partiesPolitical parties

Professional, cultural, and other Professional, cultural, and other advocacy or special interest advocacy or special interest associationsassociations

The mediaThe media

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ProfessionalizationProfessionalization

Encouraged through a number of measures:Encouraged through a number of measures:

Open and careful recruitment, training, Open and careful recruitment, training, assignment career planning, and inspiring assignment career planning, and inspiring leadershipleadership

Establishment of a single intelligence school Establishment of a single intelligence school providing a basic curriculum for candidates from providing a basic curriculum for candidates from all services, serving the 3 goals:all services, serving the 3 goals:

- conveying ideals of professionalism- conveying ideals of professionalism

- inculcating devotion to public service- inculcating devotion to public service

- enhancing cooperation among the services- enhancing cooperation among the services

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ProfessionalizationProfessionalization Assignments and promotion must reflect an Assignments and promotion must reflect an

intelligence officer’s willingness to operate both intelligence officer’s willingness to operate both within democratically chosen fields of national within democratically chosen fields of national security concern and in democratically security concern and in democratically acceptable waysacceptable ways

New inspiring managers reflecting the new New inspiring managers reflecting the new professionalism must be selected and held professionalism must be selected and held accountable for motivating personnel; accountable for motivating personnel; inculcating action for the collective interest of inculcating action for the collective interest of the nation; imposing high standards of the nation; imposing high standards of performance; personal compliance with strict performance; personal compliance with strict moral obligations and ethical rules of the moral obligations and ethical rules of the intelligence profession; and discipline – including intelligence profession; and discipline – including firing or transfer in case of misbehavior firing or transfer in case of misbehavior

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Good governanceGood governance equityequity pluralismpluralism participationparticipation partnershippartnership transparencytransparency subsidiaritysubsidiarity accountabilityaccountability human rightshuman rights efficiencyefficiency sustainabilitysustainability rule of lawrule of law effectivenesseffectiveness responsivenessresponsiveness

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RememberRemember

The central dilemma for intelligence around the The central dilemma for intelligence around the world concerns how to act as a protectorate of world concerns how to act as a protectorate of

democracy, whilst at the same time engaging in democracy, whilst at the same time engaging in secret operations that cannot be disclosed to the secret operations that cannot be disclosed to the

publicpublic

In all democratic societies, all services are forced In all democratic societies, all services are forced to confront the problem of achieving a balance to confront the problem of achieving a balance

between secrecy and openness between secrecy and openness

Maintaining a degree of transparency is the best Maintaining a degree of transparency is the best way to ensure democratic accountability and way to ensure democratic accountability and control, which are necessary for raising public control, which are necessary for raising public

awareness and support for intelligenceawareness and support for intelligence

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RememberRemember

Public intelligence drives public policyPublic intelligence drives public policy

The new craft of intelligence recognizes The new craft of intelligence recognizes that in a democracy, it is the educated that in a democracy, it is the educated public that must be addressed and kept public that must be addressed and kept

informedinformed

The issuance of annual strategic threat The issuance of annual strategic threat assessment and – when needed – assessment and – when needed –

operational threat assessments to the operational threat assessments to the public underlie all other classified public underlie all other classified

endeavorsendeavors

1 session ix: presentation 1. what is intelligence? 2. what is the purpose of intelligence services?...

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