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PROJECTIONS IN COUNTRY THE DUTCH EXPERIENCE

UNFCC WORKSHOP ON THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL

COMMUNICATIONSBONN

28 FEBR - 2 MARCH 2001

HARRY VREULS

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Outline of the presentation

• Existing institutional arrangement

• Problems related to the 1. and 2. National Communications

• Problems with the new reporting guidelines

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INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT

• At the moment One national agreed environmental projection: National Environmental Outlook 5

• Responsible is one Planning Agency, National institute of public health and the environment (RIVM)

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INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT (2)

The scenario holds input from several national institutes, among others:

• CPB : economic related models• ECN : energy related models• RIVM: environmental related models

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Projections over the years

• 2. National communication– National environmental outlook 3– Separate projection for CO2 related to energy use

• 2. National communication, update– National environmental outlook 4

• 3. National communication– National environmental outlook 5

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Problems in National communications 1 and 2, related to projections

• The use of long term scenarios for 5 year periods

• The requested and the needed detailed information

• Reference scenarios

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Long term scenarios

• Long time period : 2020 and 2030• Interpolation of 2010 situation and other 5

year periods• Short time scenarios (4 year period)

available but not the same assumptions as LT scenarios

• Conclusion we will keep only LT scenario

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Detailed information,requested and needed

• Projections to show how a country will go in line with the targets

• Robust scenarios: how are they working and which (type) of models are used

• Consistency of models should be shown• (more information in 3. National

Communication)

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Reference scenarios

• Two main scenarios– Global Competition (GC)– European Coordination (EC)

• The accepted policy scenario is GC

• No other scenarios are and will be presented in the report

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New reporting guidelines

• Reporting on scenarios• Long Term Scenario and 5 years period• Use and explanation of models• Brief explanations and national

documentation• Summary

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Reporting on scenarios

• Scenarios without measures• Scenarios with measures *• Scenarios with additional measures*• Discussion on exact content

* included in Dutch communications

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Long Term scenario

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LT Scenario and 5 years period

• LT scenario 2030 or 2020• 2010 already interpolation• 5 years value again interpolation• Almost all assumptions over whole period

the same (see table 5.1)• ST scenarios (4 year) do not fit with LT• Usefulness of 5 years value ?

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Use and explanation of models

• New guidelines improve the understanding of scenarios

• Most Dutch models developed for other projections and (re)used for climate change scenario

• In 3. Communication more elements to explain models will be included

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Brief explanations and national documentation

• Brief explanation: scenarios are important, but should be seen as background information

• Guidelines improve transparency of scenarios and policy impacts

• Most references will be in Dutch

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Summary

• More transparency as more information will be presented

• Guidelines still hold a lot of interpretation options by countries

• 5 year data only illustrative• In 3. Communication additional

information to improve transparency