unfcc iwmi cc_2012
TRANSCRIPT
Water for a food-secure world
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Ecosystems and Livelihoods in Various Global
River Basins
Fred Kizito and Vladimir Smakhtin
1
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
UNFCC Technical Workshop on Water18-20 July
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Background
Navrongo, Northern Ghana
Water for a food-secure world
IWMI’s Research and Climate Change
Numerous other on-going projects in both Africa and SE Asia
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Climate Change Impact on Agro-ecosystems
1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:
a) Stream flow
b) Seasonal soil moisture
c) Agricultural productivity
2. Extreme events
a) Droughts (related to rainfall)
b) Flooding (has +ves and -ves)
3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)
4
Water for a food-secure world
Tools and Methods on climate change related research
IWRM: Integrated Water Resources Management
InVEST: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs
ComMod: Companion Modelling (Social simulation Platform)
Wat-a-GAME: Water Game (Social simulation Platform)
WEAP: Water Evaluation and Planning
SWAT: Soil Water Assessment Tool
- Drought: Impacts agriculture- Upstream-Downstream conflicts- Community flooding- Reduced domestic water supply
Broad IWRM Challenges
Tools and Methods
Climate change relatedimpacts on
communities
RecommendResearch and
action-oriented interventions
Resilient, Adaptive Comm
unities
Stakeholder Engagement
Sedimentation/Siltation/Erosion
Water Yields Constraints
- Siltation of reservoirs- Reduced storage volume - Soil erosion: Shallow soils- Disrupts aquatic life- Impact on water quality
Stakeholder feedback on challenges
Outputs
Water allocation,Water balance,
Sedimentation estimates , flood vulnerability, Ecosystem Services
modeling and valuation, land use planning
Community involvement and
feedback for erosion control, gender tools
for empowering communities
Modeling and Scenarios analysis
Linkage Interface
Water for a food-secure world
Water Scarcity and Climate Change
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Water for a food-secure world
Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change
Socio-economic Vulnerability – in terms of diversity of employment, income and crops
Ratio of total Storage to Mean Annual Drought Deficit
Basins
Countries
Globally
Composite Vulnerability – in terms of exposure to CC, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Water for a food-secure world
Quantifying Impacts of CC and Development on Water Resources: Mekong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500
Distance from river mouth (km)
Dry
sea
son
flo
w c
han
ge
(%)
Climate change Development Climate change+Development
Chiang Saen
Luang Prabang
Chiang Khan Nong Khai
MukdahanPakse
Stung Treng
Kratie
Vientiane
Nakhon PhanomKhong Chiam
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500
Distance from river mouth (km)
Wet
sea
son
flo
w c
han
ge
(%)
Climate change Development Climate change+Development
Chiang Saen Luang PrabangChiang Khan
Vientiane
Nong Khai
Nakhon Phanom
Mukdahan
Khong Chiam
Pakse
Stung Treng
Kratie
DR
Y S
EA
SO
N (A
2)W
ET
SE
AS
ON
(A2)
B2
Relative flow changes along Mekong mainstream:
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
+
_
+
Dams onlyCC only (A2
Combined impacts
Impacts: Tens of dams planned
-7+20% rain increase by 2050
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Re-thinking CC Policy
Kizito et al., 2012
Address the Energy Water Food Nexus
(a) (b)FDI:Jatropha
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
All Years
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
An
nu
al M
ois
ture
Flu
xes
(M
illi
on
m3
)
Precip ita tion
N et change in so il m oisture
Evapotranspira tion
G roundw ater recharge
Surface R unoff
Pre-FDI: Fallow
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
All Years
-240
-200
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
An
nu
al
Mo
istu
re F
lux
es
(M
illio
n m
3)
FDI:Jatropha, Maize, Soybean and Yam
Pre-FDI: Maize, Soybean and Yam
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Re-thinking Water Storage:
physical storage continuum
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Water Storage for CC Adaptation
Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC adaptation
In many countries, climate variability is high and increasing, but water storage is low
Inability to regulate runoff by storage is a key contributor to high levels of food insecurity and poverty
Storage systems need to be able to function across a range of CC scenarios – due to the associated uncertainty
Water for a food-secure world
CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING: South Asia
Continuous monitoring of spatial extent of flooding using public satellite data
Estimating frequency and risk of flooding with initially 250 m resolution
Estimation of GHGs emissions from flooded areas
South Asia- first; globally – next
On-going efforts within IWMI on flood forecasting in other regions
2010, August, 250 m resolution
2010, August, Pakistan, 20m resolution
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Glaciers, CC and Impacts on Water Availability:6 Major Asian Basins
Compiling basin-wide data on glaciers Glaciers distribution by size = sensitivity to CC
The role of seasonal snow vs role of glaciers Evaluating critical temperatures
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Ecosystem Services and the Landscape Approach
Flooding
Rainfall/Dam Releases
Siltation/Erosion
Land use Soil
State
Transition
Result
Regulating
Provisioning
Cultural
Supporting
Modified after Eco-Agriculture Partners on behalf of the Landscapes for People, Food and Nature Initiative, 2012
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Vulnerable areas: Viable interventions
Water for a food-secure world
IWMI and Collaborating Partners: Together we can see the Horizon
IWMI and Collaborating Partners: Together we can see the Horizon
Research Collaborations: The challenges and opportunities raised by the nexus of water resources and climate change require development of new collaborations and strengthening existent partnerships
Water for a food-secure world
Adding water management to adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change
Our Planet Earth
Improved livelihoods
Vibrant and
sustainable
ecosystems
Adaptation
Mitigation
Transform water
governanceRevisit water
storageManage water
demandsIncrease
water productivity
Produce more food per unit of
water
Manage water for
afforestation and
reforestation
Manage dams for
multi-purpose use
Measure water
footprint
Address the Energy-
Water-Food Nexus
Reduce food waste
Monitor water and provide
feedbackDual-approach: A combination of adaptation and mitigation options
Water for a food-secure world
Thank you
• Vladimir Smakhtin (IWMI, Colombo)• Prathapar Sanmugam (IWMI, India)• Paul Pavelic (IWMI, India)• Luna Bharati (IWMI, Nepal)• Giriraj Amarnath (IWMI, Colombo)• Guillame Lacombe (IWMI, Laos)• C.T. Hoanh (IWMI, Laos)• K.P. Palanisami (IWMI, India)• Matthew McCartney (IWMI-Ethiopia)• Nishadi Eriyagama (IWMI, Colombo)• Pay Drechsel (IWMI, Colombo)• Liqa Rashid (IWMI, Ghana) • Oxana Savoskul (IWMI, Colombo)• Tushaar Shah (IWMI, India)
• IWMI CLIMATE CHANGE WEB SITE : www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx