1 prioritizing long term multimodal transportation policies for virginia megan kersh asad saqib...

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Prioritizing Long Term Multimodal Transportation Policies for Virginia

Megan KershAsad Saqib

Matthew SchroederWard Williams

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Goal

Develop and demonstrate methodology for the use of scenario based policy making and planning by the Multimodal Office

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Objectives

Review scenario based planning Identify and classify scenarios Identify policies specific to time horizons,

regions, and modes Develop methods to compare policies used with

scenarios (cost effectiveness, ROI, etc.) Provide examples of all the above Make recommendations for the long range plan

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Expected Changes in Virginia Transportation Demand by 2025

Outlines expected changes in population, economy, households, public policy, freight, and passenger travel

Sources of transportation demand:• Socioeconomic, policy, and freight trends

Measures of transportation use:• Freight movements by mode, automobile use, mode

choiceSource: Vtrans, March 31, 2003 www.virginiadot.org/projects/vtrans/resources/VTransTrendsMarch31F.pdf

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Proposed Methodology

Regions Time Periods Scenarios Policies

WestNortheastSoutheast

5 years10 years20 years

SpatialEconomy

DemographicsOther

EvaluationTools

ROICost Benefit

Cost Effectiveness...

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Regions


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Regions

Three regions are more manageable

Source: http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gif

http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gif

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Regions Time Periods



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Time Horizons

• 20 years• 10 years• 5 years

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Regions Time Periods Scenarios



SpatialEconomy

DemographicsOther

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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economical Demographical

• Number of households, in/out-migration Other

• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters

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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates

• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation

Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion

Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas

Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east

Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Economical Scenarios Regional economy strengthens

• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues

Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles

Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases

Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf


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Demographical Scenarios

In-migration increases• Total population increases, increased use of

auto

Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto

More households• Increased household growth to balance

forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf


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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized

• Use of public transit, bike, etc.

Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized

Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future

• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf


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Methodologies for Scenario Development

Royal Dutch Shell Approach Decide drivers for change/assumptions through

brainstorming Bring drivers together into a viable framework

• Recognize relation among factors and group scenarios Produce initial (7-9) mini scenarios Reduce to 2-3 scenarios

• Complementary to avoid having to pick a preferred one• Test – is it logical and intuitive?

Draft qualitative scenarios Identify the issues arising

• What will have greatest impact, potential for crisis

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning

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SpatialEconomy

DemographicsOther

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Suggested Policies Set of policies presented by Vtrans2025 Presented in phase 3 final report to

General Assembly Focuses on four policy areas

• Funding/Investment• Land use• Connectivity• Priority Setting

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Funding/Investment

Invest More in Transportation• User fees and taxes must be increased, new sources of funding,

such as indexing fuel taxes to inflation, and greater use of tolling and General Funds must be considered in order to address investment needs and increase system capacity.

Support Transit Remove Bias

• The state should not bias the local choice of transit versus roadways by the way in which it funds the modes

Fund Rail Protect Transportation Trust Fund Revenues

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Land Use Strengthen Planning Including Modeling Land

Use Impacts• Strengthen local and regional planning and enhance

the role of the state as a reliable and active partner in those planning efforts.

Manage Access• Implement access management policies that ensure

greater compatibility of land use and transportation priorities

Consider State Versus Local Roles Address the Transportation/Land Use Conflict

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Connectivity Improve Connections Think Multimodally

• Transit, pedestrian, bike and rail-friendly design features included in new construction

Take the Lead• Virginia must lead in connectivity of interstate

corridors

Invest in Technology• Maximize the efficiency of the existing transportation

system through developing technology

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Priority Setting Use Objective Criteria

• Establish objective criteria for all modes in order to measure success of projects and predict success of investments

Plan Multimodally• Continue development of the Multimodal

Investment Network (MIN) approach as a framework for planning and prioritizing multimodal projects at the state level

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SpatialEconomy

DemographicsOther

EvaluationTools

ROICost Benefit

Cost Effectiveness...

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Evaluation Tools for Policies Return on Investment Cost-benefit analysis Risk Analysis Impact Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Systems Analysis and Integration

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Other Research

FHWA future scenario planning policy Washington State case study Futuristic transportation policies Research on other case studies that

involve future scenarios and policies

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Overview of FHWA Future Scenario Planning Methodology

Step 1: Research the driving forces• Define the major sources of change that impact the future

Step 2: Determine patterns of interaction• How driving forces could combine to determine future conditions

Step 3: Create scenarios• Think about implications that different situations could bring about• Create basic stories based upon the interaction of drivers

Step 4: Analyze implications• Try to make graphic visualizations of the scenarios

Step 5: Evaluate scenarios• Present to stakeholders and public graphically if possible• Formulate reasoned responses to respond to change

Step 6: Monitor indicators• Scenario planning is an on-going process for a region

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Washington: Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Cross-Base Highway Project

http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/D036B8E5-CDC6-4D0F-BEF3-68200F45DA09/0/SR704FinalReportApril252007_3_.pdf

Transportation improvement between two cities

Evaluating 3 alternatives using: Net Present Value Internal Rate of Return Cost/Benefit Ratio Opportunity Cost Timing

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Three Alternatives

Alternative 1 – The Build Alternative. This scenario is to construct a 6 mile limited access highway to connect roads.

Alternative 2 – Widening of road. This scenario would involve the addition of another general purpose traffic lane.

Alternative 3 – Transit Enhancement. This scenario would involve the building of a light rail system This would be the first direct east-west transit link between the two cities.

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Estimating Transportation Improvements Benefits

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Detailed Tangible Benefits

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Detailed Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits

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Future Research and Goals

Continue research of future scenarios, policies, and evaluation tools

Create methodologies for comparing policies with a financial focus

Consider both opportunistic and problematic future scenarios

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