1 news colmar brunton poll

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll

28 November – 2 December 2020

Attention: Television New Zealand

Contact: (04) 913-3000

Release date: 7 December 2020

Level One

46 Sale Street, Auckland CBD PO Box 33690 Takapuna

Auckland 0740 Ph: (09) 919-9200

Level 9, Legal House

101 Lambton Quay PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011

Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.colmarbrunton.co.nz

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 1

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Contents Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Approval of Judith Collins .............................................................................................................................. 10

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 12

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 12


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Methodology summary CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Monday 7 December 2020.

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 28 November to Wednesday 2 December

2020.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

SAMPLE POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters who live in New Zealand households that have a landline

telephone or have access to a New Zealand mobile phone.

SAMPLE SELECTION: Landline: Nationwide random digit dialling of landline telephones using stratified

probability sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people

in urban and rural areas. Interviewers ask to speak to the person in each household

aged 18 years or over with the next birthday. When required, multiple calls are

made to reach that person. Voting eligibility is determined at the first question.

Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability

sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18

years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting

eligibility is determined at the first question.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,004 eligible voters, including n=401 polled via landline phone and n=603 polled

via mobile phone.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence

level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower

than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%

have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,

at the 95% confidence level.

These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,

gender, region, ethnic identification, and mobile or landline access.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded

up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to

1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to

whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.

All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically

significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the

outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the

data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be

misleading to report otherwise.

This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction

of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll”.


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Summary of results PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE

Labour Party 53% Up 7%-points from 10-14 October

National Party 25% Down 6%-points

Green Party 8% Steady

ACT 8% Steady

New Zealand First 2% Down 1%-point

Māori Party 2% Up 1%-point

New Conservative 1% Down 1%-point

UNDECIDED VOTERS

Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 8% Down 6%-points from 10-14 October

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Jacinda Ardern 58% Up 3%-points from 10-14 October

Judith Collins 12% Down 8%-points

David Seymour 4% Up 1%-point

Christopher Luxon 2% Up 2%-points

Winston Peters 1% Steady

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole

number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.


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Key political events

17 October – 28 November 2020

▪ The General Election took place on 17 October 2020. The Labour Party received enough votes to be able to form a single party Government. NZ First is no longer in Parliament, while ACT and the Green Party both increased their number of seats, and the Māori Party returned to Parliament with two seats.

▪ Following the election, the referendum results were released. The majority of New Zealand voters voted in support of the End of Life Choice Act, but voted against the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.

▪ Māori Party co-leader, Rawiri Waititi, said he would not acknowledge the Queen alone when he was sworn into Parliament. He said "it's okay if Ngā Rangatira o ngā Hapū o Aotearoa and the Treaty of Waitangi are also added. I will agree with that because of the burden our ancestors carried ... but it's a bit of a problem if it's the Queen alone."

▪ Cabinet agreed that face masks would be required on Auckland public transport and flights in and out of Auckland following cases of community transmission in the region.

▪ Foreign Affairs Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, pushed back on China’s Five Eyes warning, saying she was aware of the comments, and disagreed with them. She said that New Zealand signed the joint Five Eyes statement criticising a Chinese government resolution that led to the disqualification of four pro-democracy lawmakers in Hong Kong because “enough countries were expressing concern.”

▪ A decade on from the Pike River tragedy, families of the victims said little has changed to strengthen health and safety practices which could save lives in the future.

▪ Finance Minister, Grant Robertson, lobbied the Reserve Bank to change its mandate, asking the bank to take an active role in cooling the country’s housing market.

▪ Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, said that New Zealand will need to have a certain level of herd immunity before border restrictions are significantly altered following the COVID-19 closures. It was said that travel restrictions would likely remain in place for another 12 to 18 months.

▪ Oranga Tamariki Chief Executive, Grainne Moss, said there is structural racism within the agency’s systems that have led to poor outcomes for Māori. She later said she would not resign from the ministry, and that she was committed to making change.

▪ Children’s Minister, Kelvin Davis, said he was disturbed by reports of Māori foster children being removed from families that they thought were to be permanent placements. It was reported that four Māori children were removed from a foster home they thought to be permanent and were re-traumatised by being uplifted again.

▪ A citizen-initiated referendum was proposed to decriminalise, rather than legalise, cannabis following the referendum results. The proposal is open for comments on wording until February 1 2020, and then will go to referendum if it receives at least 355,000 signatures within 12 months.

▪ The Government introduced legislation increasing the statutory minimum sick leave allowance from five to 10 days a year. It was estimated that this could cost businesses almost $1billion annually.

▪ Health Minister, Andrew Little, revealed that the Government would pass an urgent law to provide legal breathing space for drug-checking ahead of the summer festival season. Drug-checking would allow users to hand over a drug sample and be told whether it was laced with something dangerous.


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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility

“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote

“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party

support analysis.

Introduction

“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote

“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party

support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”


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Party vote “Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

16-20

May 2020 20-24 Jun

2020 25-29 Jul

2020 17-21 Sep

2020 23-27 Sep

2020 3-7 Oct

2020 10-14

Oct 2020

28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020

Don’t know 11% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8% 7% 3%

Refused 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 8% 5%

TOTAL 16% 15% 14% 14% 11% 13% 14% 8%

Base (n=) 1,003 1,007 1,004 1,008 1,005 1,007 1,005 1,004

Based on eligible New Zealand voters.

16-20

May 2020 20-24 Jun

2020 25-29 Jul

2020 17-21 Sep

2020 23-27 Sep

2020 3-7 Oct

2020 10-14 Oct

2020

28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020

Labour Party 59% 50% 53% 48% 47% 47% 46% 53%

National Party

29% 38% 32% 31% 33% 32% 31% 25%

Green Party 4.7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 6% 8% 8%

ACT Party 2.2% 3.1% 4.8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%

New Zealand First

2.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6%

Māori Party 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5%

New Conservative

0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1%

Advance NZ - - - 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5%

The Opportunities Party

0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5%

ONE Party - - 0.2% - - 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

- 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% - -

Vision New Zealand

0.1% - - - - 0.1% - -

Social Credit 0.3% 0.1% - - 0.2% - - -

NZ Outdoors Party

0.1% - - 0.2% - - - -

Sustainable New Zealand

- - - 0.1% - - - -

Other - - - - - - - 0.3%

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*

Base (n=) 835 822 843 847 869 845 838 872

Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

National Labour NZ First ACT Green

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton PollParty Vote

National

Labour

Green

NZ First

ACT


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Preferred Prime Minister “Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime

Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

16-20 May 2020

20-24 Jun 2020

25-29 Jul 2020

17-21 Sep 2020

23-27 Sep 2020

3-7 Oct 2020

10-14 Oct 2020

28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020

Jacinda Ardern 63% 54% 54% 54% 54% 50% 55% 58%

Judith Collins 3% 2% 20% 18% 23% 23% 20% 12%

David Seymour 0.4% 0.8% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%

Christopher Luxon 1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2%

Winston Peters 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

John Key 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1%

Nanaia Mahuta - - - - - - - 0.8%

Chloe Swarbrick 0.1% - 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6%

Simon Bridges 5% 0.4% - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%

Marama Davidson 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3%

Chris Hipkins - - - - - - - 0.3%

Helen Clark 0.1% 0.1% - - - - 0.4% 0.3%

Grant Robertson 0.1% 0.3% - - 0.2% - 0.1% 0.2%

Shane Reti - - - - 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Mark Mitchell 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Billy Te Kahika - - 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

James Shaw 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Paula Bennett 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% - - - 0.1% 0.1%

Gerry Brownlee - - 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.1% 0.1%

Leighton Baker 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% -

Bill English 0.1% 0.2% - 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% - -

Todd Muller 0.2% 13.0% 0.2% - - 0.1% - -

Andrew Little - 0.2% - - - 0.1% - -

Amy Adams 0.2% 0.2% - - 0.2% - - -

Paul Goldsmith 0.3% - - 0.3% - - - -

John Tamihere - - - 0.2% - - - -

Kelvin Davis 0.1% - - - - - - -

Other 1% 0.7% 0.9% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%

Don’t know 18% 20% 17% 14% 13% 14% 12% 13%

None 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Refused 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 2%

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*

Base (n=) 1,003 1,007 1,004 1,008 1,005 1,007 1,005 1,004

Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton PollPreferred Prime Minister

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

John Key Phil Goff David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little

Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Todd Muller Judith Collins


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Approval of Judith Collins

“Do you approve or disapprove1 of the way Judith Collins is handling her job as leader of the National Party?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

Simon

Bridges

16-20 May

2020

Todd

Muller

20-24 June

2020

Judith

Collins

25-29 July

2020

Judith

Collins

23-27 Sep

2020

Judith

Collins

10-14 Oct

2020

Judith

Collins

28 Nov-2

Dec 2020

Approve 22% 36% 50% 50% 45% 44%

Disapprove 63% 27% 23% 37% 39% 35%

Don’t know /

Refused 15% 37% 26% 13% 16% 20%

Total 100% 100% 100%* 100% 100% 100%*

Nett approval

(approve % minus

disapprove %)

-402 +103 +27 +124 +6 +9

Base (n=) 1,003 1,007 1,004 1,005 1,005 1,004

Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding

Forty-four percent of eligible voters approve of the way Judith Collins is handling her job as leader of the

National party, compared to 35% who disapprove. A further 20% are undecided (or refused to answer).

This gives Judith Collins a nett approval rating of +9. Nett approval is the proportion who approve of a

politician minus those who disapprove.

Judith Collins’ approval rating has picked up a little since the Election (when it stood at +6) but remains notably

lower than when she first became leader in July 2020 (+27). The improvement since the Election is due to a

decline in the proportion of voters who disapprove of her, as opposed to an uplift in those who do approve of

her.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (44%) to approve of how Judith Collins is

handling her job as leader of the National Party include:

▪ National party supporters (82%)

▪ ACT party supporters (66%)

▪ Men aged 55+ (56%)

▪ Men aged 35-54 (54%)

▪ Those with an annual household income of more than $150,000 (54%)

▪ New Zealand Europeans (48%).

1 The order in which the answer codes were read was reversed, so 50% of respondents heard “approve or disapprove” and 50% of respondents heard “disapprove or approve.”

2 Please note the nett approval is -40, not -41, due to rounding. The full percentages are 22.3% approval and 62.6% disapproval.

3 Please note the nett approval is +10, not +9, due to rounding. The full percentages are 36.3% approval and 26.7% disapproval.

4 Please note the nett approval is +12, not +13, due to rounding. The full percentages are 49.5% approval and 37.1% disapproval.


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Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (35%) to disapprove of how Judith Collins is

handling her job as leader of the National Party include:

▪ Those living in Northland (54%)

▪ Green party supporters (53%)

▪ Māori (51%)

▪ Labour party supporters (47%).


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Parliamentary seat entitlement

The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The

calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

Labour Party

67

National Party

31

Green Party

10

ACT Party

10

Māori Party

2

TOTAL

120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for

each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least

one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral

Commission.

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