1 metropolitan areas and regions: trends and scenarios lewis dijkstra deputy head of the analysis...
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3 A local definition in three steps 1.Define an urban centre 2.Define a city based on this urban centre (LAU2 or groups of LAU2s) 3.Define a commuting zone based on this city (including check for polycentric cities) IMPORTANT! Cities are selected based on the population of their centre, not total populationTRANSCRIPT
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Metropolitan areas and regions:
Trends and scenarios
Lewis Dijkstra
Deputy Head of the Analysis UnitDG for Regional PolicyEuropean Commission
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What is a metropolitan area?Local definition of a city• City with an urban
centre of 50 000 inhabitants or more
• Commuting zone: all contiguous municipalities with at least 15% of its employed population working in that city
Regional definition• NUTS 3 approximation
of all commuting zones with at least 250 000 inhabitants
• Benefits: access to regional account data (GVA and employment by sector) and other data with annual time series
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A local definition in three steps1. Define an urban centre2. Define a city based on this urban centre
(LAU2 or groups of LAU2s)3. Define a commuting zone based on this
city (including check for polycentric cities)
IMPORTANT! Cities are selected based on the population of their centre, not total population
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Short version
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Detail for the city definition• Urban centre
– Contiguous grid cells with at least 1 500 inhabitants per km2, excluding diagonals
– Gaps filled– A minimum population of 50 000
• City– A city consists of one or more LAU2s– City has at least 50% population in urban
centres– At least 75% of each urban centre population
is located within one or more cities
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Cluster – Centre – City
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Detail commuting zone• Combine ‘connected cities’ (a city that has at
least 15% of its employed population working in another city) into a single destination
• Select all municipalities that have at least 15% of its employed population working in a city
• Drop the exclaves: non-contiguous municipalities
• Include enclaves: municipalities that share at least 50% of their border with commuting municipalities (applied iteratively)
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City – Commuting zone
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Future improvements to the method• Improve population grid
– Create more bottom up grids– Improve disaggregation
• Check impact of using a smaller grid cell• Consider day-time population (jobs), but no
EU wide employment girds• Consider urban functions, but no EU wide data• The two last aspects are considered for
borderline cases in consultation with national statistical institutes
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Metro regionsTrends and scenarios
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Metro regions general picture• 247 metro regions• 3 equal (almost) a country: LU, CY and MT
• They contain 62% of EU population• They contain 61% of EU employment• They contain 66% of EU GDP
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Population changePopulation change in metro regions, 2000-2008
IE
UKNLFRSKDK
PLIT
RO
BE
PT
CZ
EE
HU
ES
SILT
DE
BG
SE
AT
MT
LVGR
FI
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Cha
nge
in s
hare
of n
atio
nal p
opul
atio
n in
%
Capital metro regionSecond tier metro regionSmaller metro regionNon-metro regions combined
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ProductivityLabour productivity in PPS in metro regions compared to the rest of their country, 2008
ES DEUK
ITNL FR
BE
BG
RO
LT
LV
PL
HU
EE
SK
CZ
SI
DK
ELFISEAT
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Labo
ur p
rodu
ctiv
ity in
PPS
, non
-met
ro re
gion
s co
mbi
ned
=100
Capital metro regionSecond tier metro regionSmaller metro regionNon-metro regions combined
IE
14
Change in productivityChange in labour productivity in pps, 2000-2008
FREL
NLITDKPLATSIDEESSEPT
FI
BERO
LVUKEE
HU
LT
SK
BG
CZ
IE
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Cha
nge
in P
rodu
ctiv
ity re
lativ
e to
the
natio
nal l
evel
in in
dex
poin
ts
Capital metro regionSecond tier metro regionSmaller metro regionNon metro regions combined
60
15
EducationPopulation with a tertiary education attainment in metro regions,
2009
FI
EEIE
DKBE
UK
SE
NLLT
ESFR
DE
SIEL
BG
PL
HU
AT
SK
PT
IT
LV
CZ
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% o
f tot
al p
opul
atio
n ag
ed 2
5-64
Capital metro regionsSecond tier metro regionSmaller metro regionNon-metro regions combinedNational
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EmploymentEmployment rate, 15-64 in metro regions, 2009
NLDK
SEAT
DEUKFI
SI
PTCZ
FREE
BG
IEBELV
SK
ESPLLTITHU EL
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Empl
oym
ent a
ged
15-6
4, in
%
Capital metro regionSecond tier metro regionSmaller metro regionNon-metro regions combinedNational
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Scenarios• EU-15• Catching up of smaller
metro regions?• Catching up of rural
regions (close to a city)?• Slow urbanisation or
de-urbanisation?• Concentration of
unemployment?• Urban deprivation?• Sustainability of urban
working and living
• EU-12• Growth dispersion or
continued concentration in the capital metro region?
• Metro population stable non-metro regions shrinking or reverse migration?
• Gap in access to services and jobs between capital and smaller metros and non-metro regions
• Public investment priorities?
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Conclusions• Metropolitan regions play a key role in
economy• Present different set of challenges and
opportunities depending on the country• Metropolitan analysis is essential to
understand different situations and trends
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Thank you for your attention
Questions?