1 management confidential aviation weather friends and partners john foottit manager aviation...
TRANSCRIPT
1Management Confidential
Aviation WeatherFriends and Partners
John FoottitManager Aviation Weather Services
Las Vegas, 13 Oct 2004
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Integration and Display
• Mentally integrating disparate bits of weather information into an accurate and coherent picture for a specific route and altitude of flight is difficult for many pilots.
• Hence the need for a very effective but expensive network of Flight Service weather briefers.
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Integration and Display
• Improve NWP models so that pilots can independently make most flight planning decisions and you have a strong business case for evolutionary change.
• Hence Nav Canada’s investment in the Internet-based Automated Supplementary Enroute weather Prediction system (ASEP).
Clear Air Turbulence
Winds Aloft
MSL Pressure
Upper Air Temperature
16-Sep-04 30
400 OVC
Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000
2 miles
+ 6/ +5
MDT RimeWhich should eventually evolve into something more dynamic ...
MDT Rime
Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000
FL 250: 270 @ 40 /- 34
21,000/-26
600 BKN
Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000
LGT Rime
+ 7/ +53 miles
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Integration and Display
• The challenge is not only with the meteorological science, but with how to present information to the users so that it “speaks” to them.
• For example, assuming that the aviation regulations can be changed to accommodate the use of probabilistic forecasts, how do we offer an intuitive display of such information?
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Evaluation
• There are so many different flight planning requirements …
• For example, in Canada, VFR is not always 1000 feet and 3 miles - it depends upon the type of aircraft, the airspace, the terrain, and whether it is day or night.
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Evaluation
• If the users are to evaluate a forecast, we’re going to have to design flexible performance measurement systems that allow them to tailor the output to meet their requirements.
• For example, Nav Canada’s current system only produces canned reports in the form of columns of numbers.
Evaluation
• Site specific data is also offered, but users cannot “pick out the signal from the noise”.
• Indeed, only the statisticians recently noticed that Canadian TAF reliability has been “flat” for the past 7 years.
WeatherCentre
Below VFRobservations(hours)
Below VFRforecasts(hours)
VFRReliabilityIndex
IFR AlternateReliabilityIndex
Below IFRAlternate FalseAlarm Ratio
Montréal 17,692 14,672 88% 91% 33%
Edmonton 7,493 6,575 94% 95% 49%
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Evaluation
• Nav Canada is therefore working with the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) to create a relational performance measurement data base.
• Air carriers will then be able to obtain graphic trend information concerning such site specific variables as the reliability of forecasts for flight planning No Alternate IFR.
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Evaluation
• Clear, flexible forecast performance data should positively influence flight planning decisions, such as fuel upload (which affects fuel burn, which relates to greenhouse gas emissions).
• This equation prompted Government environmental funding for 1/3 of the cost - we have partners we didn’t know about.
Calgary 10 Oct 98 - the Observations
METAR CYYC 100500Z 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC014 00/M02 A3010
SPECI CYYC 100508Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006
SPECI CYYC 100517Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040
SPECI CYYC 100527Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049
METAR CYYC 100600Z 35006KT 10SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 M00/M02 A3010
Calgary10 Oct 1998 - the Aerodrome “Backcast”
TAF CYYC 100430Z 100505 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC014
FM0508Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006
FM0517Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040
FM0527Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049
Its precise
It doesn’t use qualifiers such as TEMPO or PROB
It only covers one hour