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Lecture 24 China’s Future: Will China

become a democracy?

SOSC 152

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1. Theories from political development 2. Practical evolution in China 3. Sprouts of democracy in China

a. Institutional transformationb. Economic Modernizationc. Civil Society due to market expansiond. Independence for local media and freedom of speech? e. Growth of a Middle Class f. Introduction of Electionsg. Legal Reform h. International forces

4. forces that could retard democracy5. Scenario of democratic transition6. Could China Collapse?

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1. Theories from political development

level of economic development, social mobilization, increased level of literacy and communication flows lead to democratization.emergence of middle class and private propertyexternal pressure from wave of democracyhegemonic superpower bringing pressure on governments

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2. Practical evolution in China

local state corporatism was the political result of domestic decentralization and foreign trade development rather than a transition to greater democracy.party’s experience of 1989 teaches it to be very careful about political liberalization.Wealth of power commingle at municipal/country level (Figure 3)

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Fig. 3 Relationship between Economic Growth & Political Liberalization

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China

a.a. Institutional transformation: Institutional transformation: NPC as major challenger to CCP, “institutional pluralism”NPC committees allow professionals to have major input into lawmaking processProvincial people’s congresses as new force for challenging corrupt cadres.Introduction of village and urban district level elections

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

b. Economic Modernizationb. Economic Modernizationprofessional classes’ involvement in policy making generates demands for democracylarge scale development projects and forces of modernization, such as urbanization, environmental pollution, marketization or commercialization means that “market failures” affect large groups of people;but the institutional framework for managing these problems remains very weak, leading to political protests.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

c. c. Civil Society due to market expansion Civil Society due to market expansion Civil Society: "the infrastructure of mediating institutions that link the multiple interests of citizens with the political regime." (Remington) has to be some distance between state and society, but need state to keep social order so that society is not in chaos.growth of the private sphere and narrowing of the public sphere controlled by the state.West sees private economy creating civil society, a very property rights approach, but alternative focuses on social pluralism, free speech, creation of "truly public opinion" when intellectuals under threat participate and expand the public sphere.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

c. c. Civil Society due to market expansion Civil Society due to market expansion intellectuals as articulators of public morality, challenging the state, but they must be "critical" intellectuals who stay outside the state power institutions, who understand their position in society, and desire to transform power relations by explaining the relationship between individuals, society and the state.No such tradition in China-- as intellectuals really want power.Most studies show no real emergence of civil society in China, local organizations still dominated by the local state or local bureaucracy.but over time, they may come to reflect social interests and act as mediators.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

d. d. Independence for local media and freedom of Independence for local media and freedom of speech? speech? runs counter to idea of secrecy that empowers party cadres and right to make law themselves.highly threatening in period of widespread corruption—seen in shift of support for liberalization by "gao gan zi di" in 1987 and support for crackdown in 1989.Especially during great opportunities for profit taking--free speech and free press would attack that corruption.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

e. e. Growth of a Middle Class Growth of a Middle Class

Dramatic expansion in size and power of private enterprises, creating a large and powerful middle class.

Private businessmen involved in NPC

But private business entrepreneurs may not support democracy

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

f. Introduction of Elections f. Introduction of Elections Village elections and elections in urban districts,

Villagers actually possess as high a level of democratic consciousness as Taiwanese inn 1986 on eve of democratization. Taiwan’s experience shows that participation in the democratic process creates a democratic consciousness.Villagers developing greater democratic consciousness, more willing to pursue their political rightsCCP proven uncomfortable with two centres of power in the countryside.

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Distribution of democratic Values in Rural China, 1999

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

g. Legal Reformg. Legal ReformCP systems often seen as “rule of man,” now trying to shift to “rule of law.”CCP leaders want stability and protection from purges through legal protection.need for economically neutral dispute resolution, creates environment for emergence of power above or outside of CCP.law as both vehicle and object of reform: a vehicle in that laws had to be made to introduce the political changes that the system had to undergo. major growth in the legal profession as a legitimate calling. in China, empowered the peasants somewhat to resist cadres, but risks very high, slow development of "rights consciousness."CCP unwilling to empower an institution outside the party, so willing to interfere in legal affairs.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (cont’d)

h. h. International forcesInternational forces

WTO and opening to global capitalism

Loss of war in Taiwan straits costs CCP its legitimacy

Wave of democracy

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4. forces that could retard democracy fusion of political and economic elite in creation of a New Classcorruption leads elites to oppose free press and political liberalizationpolitical culture—is it a factor?private sector has always been willing to work with CCP, Wank’s “symbiotic clientelism”unrest due to SOE reformno support for labour unionsCCP unwilling to date to introduce township electionsmassive floating populationforeign trade needing suppression of labour.present my village data on wealth and democracyTAM generation has not come to power.

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Tolerance for Speaking at Meeting by education & Country

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Democratic Idea by Perceived Level of Wealth (%)

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5. Scenario of democratic transition

cracks within the ruling elitemilitary must agree with this process, emergence of a “pact” to protect militaryallow for competing factions to evolve into competing partiesCCP accepts lesser political role because it has consolidated its economic dominance through privatization

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6. Could China Collapse?

some foreigners saw risk from WTO, unemployed workers, peasant protestsBut I see the need for unified ideology to mobilize people.government has proved capable of suppressing rural protests and keeping them isolated.laid off 35 million workers in 1993-1998 without major unrestInflation, corruption and inequality can create a “tunnel effect” and trigger massive unrest