1 l u n d s u n i v e r s i t e t p rojektledning och projektmetodik
TRANSCRIPT
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L U N D S U N I V E R S I T E T
Projektledning och Projektmetodik
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L U N D S U N I V E R S I T E T
Agenda
• Avstämning• PMBOK – Risk management
– Riskhanteringens grunder– Metoder och användning
• Lärmål– Grundläggande introduktion till Riskhantering i
projekt
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L U N D S U N I V E R S I T E T
Project Risk Management
• Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, assigning, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives
• Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects, determining project scope, and developing realistic estimates
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Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area
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What is Risk?
• A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or injury”
• Project risk involves understanding potential problems that might occur on the project and how they might impede project success
• Risk management is like a form of insurance; it is an investment
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Why Take Risks?Because of Opportunities!
OpportunitiesRisks
Try to balance risks and opportunities
The goal of project risk management is to:
• minimize potential risks, while
• maximizing potential opportunities.
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Project Risk Management Processes
The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks while maximizing potential opportunities. Processes are:
– Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project
– Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a project and documenting their characteristics
– Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and prioritizing their effects on project objectives
– Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and consequences of risks
– Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to meeting project objectives
– Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks, identifying new risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction
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Risk Management Planning
• The main output of risk management planning is a risk management plan
• The project team should review project documents and understand the organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to risk
• The level of detail will vary with the needs of the project
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Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves
• Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs
• Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives
• Contingency reserve or allowances are provisions held by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality occur
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Risk Identification
• Risk identification is the process of understanding what potential unsatisfactory outcomes are associated with a particular project
• Several risk identification tools and techniques include– Brainstorming– The Delphi technique– Interviewing– SWOT analysis
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Basic Categories of Risk
• Market risk: Will the new product be useful to the organization or marketable to others? Will users accept and use the product or service?
• Financial risk: Can the organization afford to undertake the project? Is this project the best way to use the company’s financial resources?
• Technology risk: Is the project technically feasible? Could the technology be obsolete before a useful product can be produced?
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Potential Risk Conditions Associated With Each Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area Risk Conditions
Integration Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integrationmanagement; lack of post-project review
Scope Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definitionof quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocationand management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, orcontingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality Poor attitude toward quality; substandarddesign/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assuranceprogram
Human Resources Poor conflict management; poor project organization anddefinition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultationwith key stakeholders
Risk Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurancemanagement
Procurement Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
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Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Assess the likelihood and impact of identified risks to determine their magnitude and priority/ranking
• Risk quantification tools and techniques include – Risk probability and impact– Probability/impact risk rating matrix– Project assumptions testing– Data precision ranking
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Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies
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Simpler Example of Probability/Impact Analysis
• Think about potential risks related to planning a large family reunion
• Jot down at least 3 potential risks• Rank the probability of the risk as high, medium,
or low• Rank the impact of the risk as high, medium or
low• I’ll graph some of your examples
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Probability/Impact Matrix
Impact
Probability
low
med
high
low med high
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Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
• Top 10 Risk Item Tracking is a tool for maintaining an awareness of risk throughout the life of a project
• Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project risk items
• List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of times the risk appears on the list over a period of time, and a summary of progress made in resolving the risk item
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Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
Monthly Ranking
Risk Item This
Month
Last
Month
Numberof Months
Risk ResolutionProgress
Inadequateplanning
1 2 4 Working on revising theentire project plan
Poor definitionof scope
2 3 3 Holding meetings withproject customer andsponsor to clarify scope
Absence ofleadership
3 1 2 Just assigned a newproject manager to leadthe project after old onequit
Poor costestimates
4 4 3 Revising cost estimates
Poor timeestimates
5 5 3 Revising scheduleestimates
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Expert Judgment
• Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings and past experience of experts to help identify potential project risks
• Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or low with or without more sophisticated techniques
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Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can be done together or separately
• Large, complex project involving leading edge technologies often require extensive quantitative risk analysis
• Main techniques include– Interviewing– Sensitivity analysis– Decision tree analysis– Simulation
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Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
• A decision tree is a diagramming method used to help you select the best course of action in situations in which future outcomes are uncertain
• EMV is a type of decision tree where you calculate the expected monetary value of a decision based on its risk event probability and monetary value
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Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example
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Simple EMV Exercise
• Project 1 has a 50% chance of providing a profit of 200 kkr, a 20% chance of costing you 50kkr, and a 30% chance of costing you 30kkr.
• Project 2 has a 70% chance of providing a profit of 100kkr, and 30% of costing you 1kkr.
• What is the EMV for each project?• Which would you recommend?
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Simulation
• Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system
• Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome many time to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results
• To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being between the optimistic and most likely values
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Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
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Risk Response Planning
• After identifying and quantifying risk, you must decide how to respond to them
• Four main strategies:– Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or
risk, usually by eliminating its causes– Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences
should a risk occur– Risk transference: shifting the consequence of
a risk and responsibility for its management to a third party
– Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk event by reducing the probability of its occurrence
• Samples of each strategy?
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Risk Monitoring and Control
• Monitoring risks involves knowing their status• Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk
management plans as risks occur• Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events
that must be done when there are no contingency plans• The main outputs of risk monitoring and control are
corrective action, project change requests, and updates to other plans
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Risk Response Control
• Risk response control involves executing the risk management processes and the risk management plan to respond to risk events
• Risks must be monitored based on defined milestones and decisions made regarding risks and mitigation strategies
• Sometimes workarounds or unplanned responses to risk events are needed when there are no contingency plans
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Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management
• Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and quantifying risks
• More sophisticated risk management software, such as Monte Carlo simulation tools, help in analyzing project risks
• Databases to keep track of risks
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Results of Good Project Risk Management
• Unlike crisis management, good project risk management often goes unnoticed
• Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless, but a lot of work goes into running a project well
• Project managers should strive to make their jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects
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Övning (Beslutsträdsanalys)
• Pannkaksexemplet– Du slutar jobba 17.00 och skall vara på
julkonsert 19.00. Förslaget att äta innan konserten är pannkakor. Det tar normalt tjugo minuter att köra hem, en halvtimme att laga till pannkakorna, en halvtimme att äta och en halvtimme att ta er till konserten. Till pannkakorna behövs mjölk, ägg, salt, socker och mjöl. Vilka risker och hur stora är de att ni inte hinner i tid till konserten?