1

Joint DCSF/DIUS Research Conference 2007

Understanding Diversity:

Creating Opportunities

16 November 2007

Thomas Spielhofer

2

Aims of Review

expected benefits of compulsory post-16 participation

challenges in implementing and enforcing participation in education and training

support needed by young people to help them make effective choices.

3

Systematic literature review

Internet searches

International enquiries

100+ documents considered

65 documents reviewed

Methods

4

Participation of 16 to 18 year olds in education and training, England, 1995 to 2005

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

Perc

en

tag

e

Age 16 Age 17 Age 18 Age 16-17

Source: DfES (2006) Participation in education, training and employment by 16-18 year olds in England: 2004 and 2005 (National Statistics First Release SFR 21/2006

5

Proportion of 16 to 17 year olds NEET, employed (JWT), and in education and training, England,

1995 to 2005

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

NEET

JWT

Total education andtraining

*Provisional Source: Data compiled using tables from DfES (2007a) showing the numbers of young people participating in ‘education and WBL’  The figures in this graph do not add up to 100 per cent as they exclude some young people engaged in part-time training in the workplace, in independent colleges or via private study, based on estimates from the Labour Force Survey.

6

Characteristics of non participants

have achieved no or very low qualifications when leaving school

have not enjoyed school

have a history of truancy and/or exclusion

be white and male

come from lower socio-economic backgrounds

have parents with low qualifications, aspirations and awareness of post-16 options

be in a job without training in the retail sector

be motivated by getting a job and earning money as soon as possible

Not a homogenous group

But they are more likely to:

7

JWT or NEET?

JWT

79,000

NEET

124,000

8

courses leading to level 2 qualifications or below

work-based training (in retail?)

Likely destinations of non-participants

have achieved no or few qualifications

have not enjoyed schoolvocational courses (including the new Diplomas)

are motivated by getting a job and earning money as soon as

possiblemost likely to be in a job without training in the retail sector

Characteristic of non-participants

Given these characteristics a lot of growth can be expected in:

9

The potential benefits of participation

Higher wages

Health benefitsIncreased likelihood of labour market participation

Increased life satisfactionBetter educational outcomes

Reduced offending behaviour and crime

Increased post-compulsory participation

Increased likelihood of civil involvement

10

The benefits of increased participation – the evidence

Voluntary Compulsory

Ed

ucati

on

Tra

inin

g

Access (2005)

Applied Economics (2002)

DSF (2006)

McIntosh (2002)

Ashenfelter & Krueger (1993)

Del Bono & Galindo-Rueda (2006)

Walker (2003)

Oreopolous (2002, 2006a,b)

Meghir & Palme (2004)

Leigh & Ryan (2005)

McIntosh (2004, 2006, 2007)

Access (2005)

11

The financial benefits of post-16 education or training

Vocational qualifications do not have the same economic benefits as academic ones

There is a significant variation in the returns to apprenticeships between different employment sectors

The economic returns to NVQs at Level 2 or below are negligible, except for those who leave school with no qualifications.

Compulsory education OR training

12

Conclusions

No direct evidence of the impact of raising the participation age to 18

Strong evidence that compulsory post-16 schooling has economic benefits

Not clear whether the benefits will be the same for compulsory participation in education or training

Impact most likely to be greatest for those who leave school with no previous qualifications