1 initial water demand estimates for three 2030 scenarios david groves rand
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1
Initial Water Demand EstimatesFor Three 2030 Scenarios
David GrovesRAND
2
1st Cut at QuantifyingNarrative Scenarios
Steps Build model Identify parameter values unique to
scenarios Compute results
3
No single method for choosing numerical values for parameters
There is no “correct” scenarioOther modeling studies can inform quantification Ex: DOF demographic projects – good choice
for Current Trends
Important to quantify drivers independently of scenario results (water demand)Check intermediate results for plausibility
4
Demand Driver Results
Please consult “Quantified Narrative Scenarios” hand-outNew rows…
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Total Population
Population
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Pe
rso
ns
(m
illio
ns
)
Current Trends
ResourceSustainability
Resource Intensive
Current Trends: DOF
Resource Sustain: DOF
Resource Intensive: Old DOF
6
Population Distribution
Po
pu
lati
on
(20
30-2
000)
- 2
Zo
nes
2 ZonesInland & Southern Coastal & Northern
0
2M
4M
6M
8M
10M
12M
14M
16M
Key ScenarioCurrent TrendsResource Sustaina…Resource Intensive
Population Change 2030-2000
Current Trends: DOF
Resource Sustain: DOF
Resource Intensive: DOF + 25% / 16%
7
Housing (Population Density)
SF Homes
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ho
me
s (
mill
ion
s)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
MF Homes
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ho
me
s (
mill
ion
s)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
Current Trends: 36% MF housing (2000)
Resource Sustain: 46% MF (+10%)
Resource Intensive: 31% MF (-5%)
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Employees
Commercial Employees
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Em
plo
ye
es
(m
illio
ns
)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
Current Trends: Driven by population*
Resource Sustain: Driven by population*
Resource Intensive: Driven by population*
*Replace with 2030 DOF projections when data available
Industrial Employees
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Em
plo
ye
es
(m
illio
ns
)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
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Changes in Water Use Coefficients
Changes in WUC captures Response to prices, income, natural
conservation and efficiency
Current Trends 10% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030
Resource Sustainability 20% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030
Resource Intensive 5% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030
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Summary of Urban Drivers
Urban Water Demand Factors for 2000 and 2030.
Year 2030 Model Result Year 2000 Current Trends Resource Sustain. Resource Intensive
Population (millions) 34.1 48.1 48.1 52.3 Inland/Southern Pop. (mil) 25.8 37.3 37.3 41.1 Coastal/Northern Pop. (mil) 8.3 10.8 10.8 11.2 SF Homes (millions) 7.4 10.6 9.2 12.2 MF Homes (millions) 4.1 5.7 7.5 5.2 Commercial Employees (mil) 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 Industrial Employees (mil) 2.9 4.1 4.1 4.4
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Irrigated AreaIrrigated Crop Area - Current Trends
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ac
res
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Multi-cropped
Irrigated Land Area
Irrigated Crop Area
Irrigated Crop Area - Resource Intensive
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ac
res
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Multi-cropped
Irrigated Land Area
Irrigated Crop Area
Irrigated Crop Area - Resource Sustainability
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ac
res
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Multi-cropped
Irrigated Land Area
Irrigated Crop Area
Current Trends: ICA – Current Trends, MA/ILA – 6%->10%
Resource Sustain: ICA – Constant, MA/ILA – 6%->14%
Resource Intensive: ICA – Constant, MA/ILA – 6%->23%
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Irrigation Applied Water
Reflects all factors affecting water use per crop typeAlso reflects changes in cropping patterns Can disaggregate in future
Current Trends 5% decrease in AW from 2000-2030
Resource Sustainability 10% decrease in AW from 2000-2030
Resource Intensive Constant AW
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Summary of Irrigation Demand Factors
Agricultural Water Demand Factors for 2000 and 2030.
Year 2030 Factor Year 2000
Current Trends Resource Sustainability Resource Intensive Irrigated Crop Area (1000 Acres)
9,510 8,520 9,520 9,520
Irrigated Land Area 8,980 7,740 8,360 7,740 Multi-cropped Area 540 780 1,160 1,780 Effective Applied Water (AF/Acre)
3.23 3.045 2.875 3.16
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Environmental Water Demand
Unmet needs based upon memo from Environmental Defense (Dec. 8, 2003)
Current Trends 100% Unmet Needs by 2030
Resource Sustainability 150% Unmet Needs by 2030
Resource Intensive 100% Unmet Needs by 2030
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Results
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Urban Water DemandUrban Water Demand
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Urb
an
Wa
ter
De
ma
nd
(M
AF
)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
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UU
20
30
-20
00
Zo
ne
ScenarioCurrent Trends Resource Sustainable Resource Intensive
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
Key ZonesSouth/DryValleyNorth/Coast
Urban Demand Change – by sector and zone
Urb
an
Us
e 2
03
0 -
20
00
(T
AF
)
ScenarioCurrent Trends Resource Sustainable Resource Intensiv e
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Key Urban Use by Sector (TAF)SF UseMF UseCommercial UseIndustrial Use
Public Use--
2030-2000 by Sector
2030-2000 by Zone
South/dry = SC, CR, SL
Valley = SR, SJ, TL
North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL
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Results – Agricultural Demand
Agricultural Water Demand
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Wa
ter
De
ma
nd
(M
AF
)
Current Trends
Resource Sustainability
Resource Intensive
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Urban, Ag, Envir. Demand By Region
South / Dry Hydrologic Regions
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Current Trends ResourceSustainability
ResourceIntensive
Dem
and
Ch
ang
e (2
030-
2000
) [M
AF
]
Urban
Agricultural
Environmental
(0.63 MAF) (0.15 MAF) (2.7 MAF)
Valley Hydrologic Regions
-6-5-4-3-2-1
01234
Current Trends ResourceSustainability
ResourceIntensive
Dem
and
Ch
ang
e (2
030-
2000
) [M
AF
]
Urban Agricultural Environmental
(-2.6 MAF)
(-1.5 MAF)
(0.27 MAF)
South/dry = SC, CR, SL
Valley = SR, SJ, TL
North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL
North / Coast Hydrologic Regions
-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
0.20.30.40.50.6
Current Trends ResourceSustainability
ResourceIntensive
Dem
and
Ch
ang
e (2
030-
2000
) [M
AF
]
UrbanAgriculturalEnvironmental
(0.30 MAF)
(0.50 MAF)
(1.06 MAF)
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Total Demand
UrbanAgriculturalEnvironmental ObjectivesStop groundwater overdraft 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4Total -0.6 - 0.4 0.2 - 1.2 6.0 - 8.0
1 1.5
4.6-1.6
1
Scenario 2Resource sustainability
Scenario 3Resource intensiveWater Demands
2.8-5.4
Changes in Water Demand from 2000 to 2030
1.5-3.8
Scenario 1Current Trends
South/dry = SC, CR, SL
Valley = SR, SJ, TL
North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL
Urban+Ag+Env Demand Change by Scenario
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Current Trends ResourceSustainability
ResourceIntensive
Dem
and
Ch
ang
e (2
030-
2000
) [M
AF
]
South/DryValleyNorth/Coast
(-1.6 MAF)
(0.86 MAF)
(4.0 MAF)