1 goldratt’s thinking process and systems thinking james r. burns july 31, 2007

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Goldratt’s Thinking Goldratt’s Thinking Process and Systems Process and Systems ThinkingThinking

James R. BurnsJames R. Burns

July 31, 2007July 31, 2007

5/28/2002

THEORY OF THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS: CONSTRAINTS: GOLDRATTGOLDRATT

1. Identify the system constraints1. Identify the system constraints2. Decide how to exploit the system 2. Decide how to exploit the system

constraintsconstraints3. Subordinate everything else to 3. Subordinate everything else to

that decisionthat decision4. Elevate the system constraints4. Elevate the system constraints5. When this creates new 5. When this creates new

constraints, go back to step 1constraints, go back to step 1

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Reference(s)Reference(s)

Dettmer, H. William, Dettmer, H. William, Goldratt’s Goldratt’s Theory of ConstraintsTheory of Constraints, ASQ, , ASQ, 1997.1997.

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THE ISSUES ARE:THE ISSUES ARE:

What to change?What to change?• {What is the core problem?}{What is the core problem?}

What to change to?What to change to?• {Where to look for the breakthrough {Where to look for the breakthrough

idea?}idea?} How to effect the change?How to effect the change?

• {How to bridge from a breakthrough {How to bridge from a breakthrough idea to a full solution?}idea to a full solution?}

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Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Process)Process)

An excellent methodology to An excellent methodology to facilitate sessions during the facilitate sessions during the initiation phase (definition and initiation phase (definition and conceptualization stage) of a conceptualization stage) of a projectproject

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Strategy for changeStrategy for change

Create the treeCreate the tree Critique the treeCritique the tree

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Why trees??Why trees??

To get a complete picture of what To get a complete picture of what is going onis going on

To model all of the causation To model all of the causation involvedinvolved

To see what is related to whatTo see what is related to what To identify the core problemTo identify the core problem To validate a proposed injectionTo validate a proposed injection

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What to change?What to change?

Team constructs a current reality Team constructs a current reality tree (CRT)tree (CRT)

Team starts by listing all Team starts by listing all undesirable effects (UDE’s)undesirable effects (UDE’s)

Team inter-relates these by use of a Team inter-relates these by use of a tree, called a CRTtree, called a CRT

In the current reality tree, the team In the current reality tree, the team traces UDE’s back to a traces UDE’s back to a core core problem problem (CP)(CP)

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EXAMPLES OF UDE’sEXAMPLES OF UDE’s

Due dates are often missedDue dates are often missed It is difficult to respond to urgent It is difficult to respond to urgent

demandsdemands There is too much expeditingThere is too much expediting Inventory levels are too highInventory levels are too high There are frequent material There are frequent material

shortagesshortages Safety stocks are inadequateSafety stocks are inadequate

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Symptoms, Root Causes & Symptoms, Root Causes & a Core Problema Core Problem

Rather than reacting to symptoms, Rather than reacting to symptoms, we should be finding root causeswe should be finding root causes

We consider undesirable effects to We consider undesirable effects to be symptomsbe symptoms

We look for a “common cause” We look for a “common cause” that is the source for most of the that is the source for most of the undesirable effectsundesirable effects

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A CRT for software A CRT for software developmentdevelopment

Only 28% of software projects are Only 28% of software projects are successful—on-time, within budget successful—on-time, within budget and with full functionalityand with full functionality

Software projects are always the Software projects are always the slowest projects to be completedslowest projects to be completed• TI merged two divisions of the firm….TI merged two divisions of the firm….

– It took 6 months to do all logisticsIt took 6 months to do all logistics– It took 18 months to reconcile all of the It took 18 months to reconcile all of the

software differencessoftware differences

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Example Current Reality Example Current Reality TreeTree

Managing Software Development ProjectsIs rarely successful

Software DevelopmentProjects take too long

Software Development Projects cost too much

Software Development Projects have qualityproblems

A

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Fixing changes takes time

There are many late-breaking changes to

requirements

Fixing changes costs money

Users discover new features they want

included in the software

Users don’t know whatthey want

Users change their

minds

Users are untrained and not sophisticated

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Users are untrained and not sophisticatedLate in the lifecycleUsers discover new features they want


Project Managers do notutilize “early discovery”

techniques with users

Project ManagersDo not train and teach Users about software

development

Software Project ManagersAre poorly trained

And unaware of pitfalls in Software projects

Software Project Managersdo not encourage use ofwalkthroughs through

testing

Software is of poorquality and takes

Much time/money to debug

A

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We conclude….We conclude….

That the core problem is with That the core problem is with poorly trained software project poorly trained software project managersmanagers

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The next construct is the The next construct is the Evaporating Cloud {EC}Evaporating Cloud {EC}

The Evaporating Cloud is used to The Evaporating Cloud is used to address the question…address the question…

What to Change to….What to Change to….

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Core problems are studied Core problems are studied further by use of an further by use of an evaporating cloud evaporating cloud

Evaporating clouds (ECs) will Evaporating clouds (ECs) will surface assumptionssurface assumptions

Breaking an assumption leads to a Breaking an assumption leads to a

breakthrough called an breakthrough called an injectioninjection At this point the team is At this point the team is

unconcerned with the practicality of unconcerned with the practicality of the injectionthe injection

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What is an injection?What is an injection?

a solution to the core problema solution to the core problem a strategy that will mitigate all of a strategy that will mitigate all of

the UDE’s the UDE’s Injections that appear impossible Injections that appear impossible

to achieve are called to achieve are called flying pigsflying pigs

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Example Evaporating Example Evaporating CloudCloud

Many well-trainedProject ManagersAre available now

Training takesmuch time/money,

requires trainers

Project Manager expertise is

required now

InstantProject Manager

expertise required

Project training islong and arduous

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What have we learned What have we learned from the EC above?from the EC above?

Many expert project managers are Many expert project managers are needed nowneeded now

Creating well-trained project Creating well-trained project managers takes timemanagers takes time

Instant project management Instant project management expertise is required nowexpertise is required now

SOLUTION: Expert system for SOLUTION: Expert system for project managementproject management

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INJECTIONINJECTION

Create a PM expert systemCreate a PM expert system• An advisory system that novice An advisory system that novice

Project Managers can seek and obtain Project Managers can seek and obtain advice from.advice from.

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What to change to?What to change to?

From the CRT and ECs, a Future From the CRT and ECs, a Future Reality Tree (FRT) is constructedReality Tree (FRT) is constructed

One purpose of the Future Reality One purpose of the Future Reality Tree is to validate that the Tree is to validate that the injection will achieve the desired injection will achieve the desired effects (DE’s)effects (DE’s)

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Examples of DE’sExamples of DE’s

Due dates are rarely Due dates are rarely missedmissed

Demands are met 99% Demands are met 99% of the timeof the time

There is little expeditingThere is little expediting Inventory levels are lowInventory levels are low There are no material There are no material

shortagesshortages Production lead times Production lead times

are short or satisfactoryare short or satisfactory

Due date perf. is highDue date perf. is high Customers rely on Customers rely on

quick responsesquick responses There is little There is little

expeditingexpediting Inventory levels are Inventory levels are

reduced significantlyreduced significantly Material is available Material is available

when neededwhen needed Customers rely on Customers rely on

quick responsesquick responses

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Building the Future Reality Building the Future Reality TreeTree

Start by turning the UDE’s around and Start by turning the UDE’s around and writing them with a positive tone as DE’swriting them with a positive tone as DE’s

Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the FRTFRT

At the bottom of the FRT place the At the bottom of the FRT place the injectioninjection

Building the FRT is a two-phase processBuilding the FRT is a two-phase process• Build considering only positive, ideal links, Build considering only positive, ideal links,

and assuming win/win strategiesand assuming win/win strategies• Add negative loops laterAdd negative loops later

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What to change to, What to change to, Cont’d?Cont’d?

The idea here is to get a picture of The idea here is to get a picture of how an injection (a breakthrough) how an injection (a breakthrough) might affect the overall might affect the overall performance of the system.performance of the system.

The Future Reality Tree is the The Future Reality Tree is the validation that a collection of validation that a collection of injections will turn all of the UDE’s injections will turn all of the UDE’s into DE’sinto DE’s

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Future Reality TreeFuture Reality Tree for our examplefor our example

Managing Software Development ProjectsIs usually successful

Software DevelopmentProjects take reasonable lengths of time

Software Development Projects aren’t too costly

Software Development Projects create qualityproducts

A

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requirements





Users change their

minds





requirements





Users change their

minds


Software DevelopmentProjects take reasonableLengths of time

Software Development Projects aren’t too costly

There are few late-breaking changes to

requirements


Users discover no new features they want



Users rarelychange their

minds

Users are more trained and sophisticated

Fixing changes takes time

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Users are trained and sophisticatedLate in the lifecycleUsers rarely discover

features they want included in the software

Project Managers utilize “early discovery”

techniques with users

Project ManagersDo train and teach

Users about software development

Software Project Managersuse an expert systemTo avoid pitfalls in Software projects

Software Project Managersencourage use of

walkthroughs throughtesting

Software is of goodquality and dubbing

is inexpensive and quick

A

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Last Question….Last Question….

How to cause How to cause the change?the change?

We will use two more treesWe will use two more trees

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How to cause the change?How to cause the change?

The prerequisite treeThe prerequisite tree The transition treeThe transition tree

These help to get buy-inThese help to get buy-in These help us to develop a strategy These help us to develop a strategy

for achieving a flying pig (an for achieving a flying pig (an injection that appears impossible to injection that appears impossible to achieve or implement)achieve or implement)

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The Prerequisite TreeThe Prerequisite Tree

Place INJECTIONS at the topPlace INJECTIONS at the top List the obstacles that are expectedList the obstacles that are expected For each obstacle that is overcome, an For each obstacle that is overcome, an

intermediate objective is achievedintermediate objective is achieved• Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate

objectiveobjective The intermediate objectives need to be The intermediate objectives need to be

sequencedsequenced The prerequisite tree does the sequencingThe prerequisite tree does the sequencing

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OBSTACLE INTERM. OBSTACLE INTERM. OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVE

No well-defined No well-defined ES ES

ArchitectureArchitecture

There are many There are many commercially-commercially-available ES available ES ShellsShells

Pick an Pick an appropriateappropriate

ES ArchitectureES Architecture

Select an Select an appropriate ES appropriate ES ShellShell

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The Prerequisite Tree, The Prerequisite Tree, Cont’dCont’d

Takes an impediment or obstacle Takes an impediment or obstacle approachapproach

This approach enables dissection This approach enables dissection of the implementation task into an of the implementation task into an array of interrelated, well-defined, array of interrelated, well-defined, intermediate objectivesintermediate objectives

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The Prerequisite TreeThe Prerequisite TreeOur ExampleOur Example

Create Project Management

Expert System

Test Project Management

Expert System

A

Objective

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Construct Project Management

Expert System

Select Expert System Shell

Codify PM Body of Knowledge

into Expert System Shell

Obtain PM Body of Knowledge

Decide upon

Expert System

Architecture

A

No well-defined PM Body of Knowledge

No well-defined ES Architecture

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The Transition TreeThe Transition Tree

We know where we standWe know where we stand We identified the core problemWe identified the core problem We found an injection (one or more) We found an injection (one or more)

that produces the desired effectsthat produces the desired effects We found the milestones of the We found the milestones of the

journey--the intermediate objectives journey--the intermediate objectives (IO’s)(IO’s)

The question now is The question now is What specific What specific actions must we take?actions must we take?

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The Transition Tree, The Transition Tree, Cont’dCont’d

We must focus, not on what we plan We must focus, not on what we plan to do but on what we plan to to do but on what we plan to accomplishaccomplish

For each IO, a specific action or set of For each IO, a specific action or set of actions are determined and initiatedactions are determined and initiated

Causing a specific change in reality is Causing a specific change in reality is the imperativethe imperative

The transition tree provides a ROAD The transition tree provides a ROAD MAP for getting from here to there!MAP for getting from here to there!

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The Four-Element The Four-Element Transition TreeTransition Tree

Expected effect

Condition of reality

Unfulfilled need

Specific action

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Expected effect


Unfulfilled need

Specific action

Unfilled need


Unfulfilled need

Specific action

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The Transition TreeThe Transition TreeOur ExampleOur Example

Create Project Management

Expert System

Test Project Management

Expert System

A

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That’s it for Goldratt’s That’s it for Goldratt’s Critical ThinkingCritical Thinking

To get the full version, you have to To get the full version, you have to go to New Hampshire (Goldratt go to New Hampshire (Goldratt Institute) , spend two weeks and Institute) , spend two weeks and $10,000$10,000

To learn more, please refer to…To learn more, please refer to… www.eligoldratt.comwww.eligoldratt.com

1 goldratt’s thinking process and systems thinking james r. burns july 31, 2007

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