1 financing its and the transport infrastructure: policy for mobility 15 th world congress on its...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Financing ITS and the Transport Infrastructure:
Policy for Mobility
Financing ITS and the Transport Infrastructure:
Policy for Mobility
15th World Congress on ITS
November 2008, New York City
Steve Heminger
Executive Director
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
San Francisco Bay Area
2
3
Statutory MandateStatutory Mandate
• Study current condition and future needs Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation systemof surface transportation system
• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel alternatives to replace or supplement fuel taxtax
• Frame policy and funding Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons time horizons
• Report to Congress by January 1,2008Report to Congress by January 1,2008
4
Rebuilding America
Rebuilding America
5
Minnesota I-35 WMinnesota I-35 W
6
Texas 1-20 West of PecosTexas 1-20 West of Pecos
7
Louisiana Hurricane Katrina U.S. 90 Ocean Louisiana Hurricane Katrina U.S. 90 Ocean SpringsSprings
8
2005 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure
2005 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure
Aviation D+
Bridges C
Dams D
Drinking Water D-
Energy D
Hazardous Waste D
Navigable Waterways D-
Public Parks and Recreation C-
Rail C-
Roads D
Schools D
Security I
Solid Waste C+
Transit D+
Wastewater D-
America’s Infrastructure GPA D
Sources: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2005
9
FreightFreight
10
China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by
2010
China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by
2010
10
11
1,4371,437
6,1656,165
(TEUs in thousands)
20202020
20042004
HoustonHouston
13,10113,101
LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15
22,152
MiamiMiami
2,0432,0433,3823,382
OaklandOakland
4,4784,478
15,83515,835
NY/NJNY/NJ
1,8091,809
5,5665,566
VirginiaVirginia
1,8601,860
6,6396,639
CharlestonCharleston
1,6621,662
9,4209,420
SavannahSavannah
1,7981,7984,3964,396
TacomaTacoma
1,7761,776 2,5572,557
SeattleSeattle
59,42059,420
Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020
Source: U.S. DOT
12
Truck Rail Water Air Total
More trade means more domesticfreight movements
More trade means more domesticfreight movements
West region +65%
South region +71%
Central
region +71%
Northeast region +58%
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-20202000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020
20202020
20002000
% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020
62% 44% 39% 181% 57%
10,70010,700
17,29617,296
2,0092,009
2,8912,891
1,0541,054
1,4701,470
13,77213,772
21,68221,682
992525
(tons in millions)
Source: U.S. DOT
13
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4%1%
9%
3% 2% 0%
7%3% 1%
40%
74%
67%
16%
40%
6%<1%<1%
6%2%
13%
3%
Tons Value Ton-Miles
Perc
en
t
TruckRailWaterAirPipeline
Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.
Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value
commodities commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distancesand for heavy shipments moving long distances
14
00
50,00050,000
100,000100,000
150,000150,000
200,000200,000
250,000250,000
300,000300,000
350,000350,000
400,000400,000
18301830 18501850 18701870 18901890 19101910 19301930 19501950 19701970 19901990 20102010
Class I Railroads Track-Miles Class I Railroads Track-Miles OwnedOwned
Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads
Rail Network TodayRail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a Today’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a
core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century designcore network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
15
Metro MobilityMetro Mobility
16
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
17
Metro Areas Greater Than 1 Million
Metro Areas Greater Than 1 Million
Source: U.S. Census
18
Metros Capture Huge Market Share
Metros Capture Huge Market Share
10 Megaregions
Metro Areas>1 Million
11 Share of U.S. PopulationShare of U.S. Population 68%68% 58%58%
22 Share of GDPShare of GDP 78%78% 61%61%
33 Share of Traffic Share of Traffic CongestionCongestion 92%92% 97%97%
44 Share of Transit Share of Transit RidershipRidership 93%93% 92%92%
55 Share of Population Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Exposure to Criteria PollutantsPollutants
94%94% 88%88%
Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA
19
U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050
U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050
19Source: U.S. Census
20
SafetySafety
21
22
23
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
24
U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War
U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
25
What’s Broken?What’s Broken?
26
Environmental Impact StatementEnvironmental Impact StatementProcessing TimeProcessing Time (FY 1998 (FY 1998––2006)2006)
Source: FHWA
Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process
Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process
Source: Holland & Knight27
28
Street and Highway Construction Costs
Have Increased Dramatically Over the Past Few Years
Street and Highway Construction Costs
Have Increased Dramatically Over the Past Few Years
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Highway and street construction costs, 1997-2007Highway and street construction costs, 1997-2007
29
FinanceFinance
30
Projected Highway and Transit Account Balances
Through 2012
Projected Highway and Transit Account Balances
Through 2012
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury projections
31
Annual National Funding GapAnnual National Funding Gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Con
stan
t 20
05 D
olla
rs (
in B
illio
ns)
Current Spending(2006)
Cost to Maintain(2055)
Cost to Improvewith Pricing
(2055)
Source: Section 1909 Commission
Cost to Improvewithout Pricing
(2055)
32
Cost to Improve by CategoryCost to Improve by Category
Source: Section 1909 Commission
33
Major Finance Recommendations
Major Finance Recommendations
1.1. The federal surface transportation The federal surface transportation program should program should notnot be reauthorized in be reauthorized in its current form. its current form.
2.2. A new beginning:A new beginning:• performance-driven performance-driven • outcome-basedoutcome-based• generally mode-neutralgenerally mode-neutral• refocused on genuine national interestrefocused on genuine national interest
34
3.3. The annual investment shortfall to improve The annual investment shortfall to improve the condition and performance of all modes the condition and performance of all modes of surface transportation — highway, of surface transportation — highway, bridge, public transit, freight rail, and bridge, public transit, freight rail, and intercity passenger rail — ranges between intercity passenger rail — ranges between $140–250 billion.$140–250 billion.
Major Finance Recommendations
Major Finance Recommendations
Fuel Tax vs. Fuel Price
Major Finance Recommendations
Major Finance Recommendations
4.4. To address this To address this investment shortfall by investment shortfall by providing the traditional providing the traditional federal share of 40% of federal share of 40% of total transportation total transportation capital funding, the capital funding, the federal fuel tax needs to federal fuel tax needs to be raised by 25-40 cents be raised by 25-40 cents per gallon. per gallon.
5.5. This rate increase should This rate increase should be indexed to the be indexed to the construction cost index construction cost index and phased in over a and phased in over a period of years. period of years. 35
Source: AAA
6.6. Fuel tax remains viable revenue at least through Fuel tax remains viable revenue at least through 2025. Thereafter, the most promising alternative 2025. Thereafter, the most promising alternative revenue measure appears to be a vehicle miles revenue measure appears to be a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) fee, provided that substantial traveled (VMT) fee, provided that substantial privacy and collection cost issues can be privacy and collection cost issues can be addressed.addressed.
7.7. The deployment of peak-hour “congestion The deployment of peak-hour “congestion pricing” on Interstate highways in major pricing” on Interstate highways in major metropolitan areas should be permitted, with metropolitan areas should be permitted, with revenues restricted to transportation purposes in revenues restricted to transportation purposes in the travel corridors where the fees are imposed.the travel corridors where the fees are imposed.
Major Finance Recommendations
Major Finance Recommendations
36
8.8. Public-Private Partnerships should be Public-Private Partnerships should be encouraged as a means of attracting additional encouraged as a means of attracting additional private investment to the surface private investment to the surface transportation system, provided that transportation system, provided that conditions are included to protect the public conditions are included to protect the public interest and the movement of interstate interest and the movement of interstate commerce.commerce.
Major Finance Recommendations
Major Finance Recommendations
States with PPP Authority
37
1.1. Not simply about supplying revenues; can also:Not simply about supplying revenues; can also:
• Prioritize projects that generate highest returnsPrioritize projects that generate highest returns
• Improve life cycle investingImprove life cycle investing
• Provide incentives for more efficient Provide incentives for more efficient operations/maintenanceoperations/maintenance
2.2. Widely used in Europe, South America, AustraliaWidely used in Europe, South America, Australia
3.3. Increasing interest by some StatesIncreasing interest by some States
• Construction of new highways or additional capacity to Construction of new highways or additional capacity to existing highwaysexisting highways
• Long term leasing of existing toll facilitiesLong term leasing of existing toll facilities
• Potential applications for goods movementPotential applications for goods movement
Public-Private PartnershipsPublic-Private Partnerships
38
1.1. Transparency in negotiation, adequate public input, no Transparency in negotiation, adequate public input, no conflicts of interestconflicts of interest
2.2. Meet all applicable planning and environmental Meet all applicable planning and environmental requirementsrequirements
3.3. Agreement should requireAgreement should require• Maintenance of facility condition and performanceMaintenance of facility condition and performance• Facility returned to the State in good conditionFacility returned to the State in good condition• No non-compete clauses affecting adjacent facilitiesNo non-compete clauses affecting adjacent facilities• Facility returned to the State if private partner enters Facility returned to the State if private partner enters
bankruptcybankruptcy• Customers’ interests protectedCustomers’ interests protected• Revenue-sharing provisionsRevenue-sharing provisions• Reasonable termReasonable term
4.4. Payments used to improve/expand toll facilities and capacity Payments used to improve/expand toll facilities and capacity on transportation alternatives within the same corridoron transportation alternatives within the same corridor
5.5. Private sector financing provides better value than public Private sector financing provides better value than public financingfinancing
Public-Private Partnerships under Certain Conditions…
Public-Private Partnerships under Certain Conditions…
39
40
“Our unity as a nation is sustained by
free communication of thought and
by easy transportation of people
and goods... Together the unifying
forces of our communication and
transportation systems are dynamic
elements in the very name we bear
— United States. Without them, we
would be a mere alliance of many
separate parts.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1955
For More Information:
www.transportationfortomorrow.org
For More Information:
www.transportationfortomorrow.org
41