1 energy 2020 model overview massoud jourabchi & jeff amlin (systematic solutions inc.) june 26...
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ENERGY 2020 Model Overview
Massoud Jourabchi &Jeff Amlin (Systematic Solutions Inc.)
June 26th 2007
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Full Model Overview
Model Overview Demand and Supply Sectors Economic Feedback GHG and CAC Emissions Policy Scenarios Major Inputs and Outputs
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ENERGY 2020 Background Widely used in the Europe, South America, US and
Canada US DOE FOSSIL2/IDEAS [Early E2020]: Used for all National
Energy Plans since between 1978 and 1998 State of Illinois (1986): Assess electric deregulation to avoid rate
shock Cambridge University/Cambridge Econometrics (1995/1995):
Dynamics of EU/UK electric deregulation and climate change New England ISO: Analysis of market-rules, capacity-expansion
procedure, and market-dynamics DOE and US Congress: Overly-accurate, deregulated-market
dynamics Bonneville Power Administration: Electric-market impact dynamics
of climate change, load-control, and deregulation uncertainty. Analyzed deregulation and climate-change policy in all fifty
states, all Canadian provinces, and over a dozen countries.
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Model Overview
Energy ModelEnergy Demand (Currently being used by Council)
Energy SupplyEnergy Prices
Economic Forecast/Model Emissions as Outputs
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DEMANDResidentialCommercial
IndustrialTransportation
SUPPLYElectric Utility/IPPs
Gas SupplyOil Supply
Coal SupplyInternational SupplyInternational Trade
MACROECONOMIC MODEL( Global Insight)
Demand
Tax RatesInflation Interest Rates
Gross InvestmentsGross OutputUtilizationTax Rates, Inflation Interest Rates
Prices
Prices
EnergyInvestments
Policy Costs
ENERGY 2020 Sector Relationships
ENERGY 2020
SUPPLYGeneration Location
DEMAND4 states and region
CONGESTION
POWERWORLD
POWER FLOWS
Electric Demands
GenerationPrices
CapacityBids
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Energy Demand Methodology
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Energy Demand Methodology
Major data sources, Inputs and outputs Fuel Categories Sector Categories Approach Structure Current status
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Historical Data Sources
SEDS – State Energy Demands from EIA SEPER – State Energy Prices from EIA FERC Form 1 - Electric Company Data from EIA AP 42 – Emissions Data from EPA RECS - Residential data from EIA CECS – Commercial data from EIA MECS – Manufacturing data from EIA Council’s existing models (long-term forecast,
short-term forecast, conservation potential model Procost)
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NW Regional Detail
Residential (saturation rates, energy intensity by enduse, regional codes, standards)
Commercial (saturation rates, energy intensity by enduse, regional codes, standards)
Industrial ( Energy use/employee, DSI, large industrial)
Irrigation
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Demand Sector Major Inputs
Economic Activity Energy Prices Technological Efficiency Improvements Industrial Process Changes Device Saturations Weather impact Policies
Taxes, Standards, etc.
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Economic Drivers
2008-2030 forecasting horizon Initial economic drivers from Global Insight Modified by state forecasts Residential income Commercial output Industrial output
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Energy Prices
Fossil fuel prices from Council’s forecast Wholesale Electricity market clearing
prices from Council’s long-term forecast. Retail electricity prices are calculated in
2020.
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Technology Efficiency Curves
The technology efficiency curves are developed using Qualitative Choice Theory where the “choice” is between capital cost and efficiency (the higher the capital cost the higher the efficiency). The consumer trades front-end cost (capital cost) for operating cost (efficiency).
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Enduse Device Saturation rates
Currently device saturation rates are set exogenously.
Saturations as defined in ENERGY 2020 is the percent of customers which have a particular enduse, not the percent of customers which have an electrical device.
ENERGY 2020 saturations are generally a historical trend which asymptotically approaches a maximum value.
ENERGY 2020 market share of a given fuel for an enduse is determined endogenous.
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Weather inputs
Currently model is producing weather normalized loads for each state.
Model can be provided deviations from normal temperature to simulate impact of climate change on load
Area of future development ( linkage of short-term model and 2020)
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Policy variables
Tax policies, state or regional and national Codes Standards
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Demand Sector Outputs
Fuel Usage for All Fuels Enduse Cogeneration Feedstock (non-combustion)
Fuel Market Shares Device and Process Efficiency Device and Process Investments Emissions Number of units (residence, commercial space)
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Energy Demand Methodology
Major Inputs and Outputs Fuel Categories Sector Categories Approach Structure Current status
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Fuel Demands Asphalt Aviation Fuel Biomass Coal Coke Coke Oven Gas Diesel Electric Ethanol Geothermal Heavy Fuel Oil Hydro Hydrogen Kerosene Landfill Gases/Waste Light Fuel Oil
LPG Lubricants Motor Gasoline Naphtha specialties Natural Gas Nuclear Other Non-Energy
Products Oil, Unspecified Petrochemical Feedstock Petroleum Coke Solar Steam Still Gas Wave Wind
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Residential Energy Demands
Economic Categories - Single Family, Multi-family, Manufactured/mobile homes
Enduse – Space Heating, Water Heating, Cooking, Dishwashing, Clothes Washing, Drying, Refrigeration, Freezing, Lighting, Air Conditioning, Entertainment (TV, computers), Other plug loads
Technologies – Electric, Gas, Coal, Oil, Biomass, Solar, LPG, Steam
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Commercial Economic Categories
Large Office Medium Office Small Office Big Box-Retail Small Box-Retail High End-Retail Anchor-Retail K-12 University
Warehouse Supermarket Mini-Mart Restaurant Lodging Hospital Other-Health Assembly Other
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Commercial Demands
Enduse – Space Heating, Water Heating, Cooking, Refrigeration, Lighting, Air Conditioning, Ventilation, Plug-loads
Technologies/fuels – Electric, Gas, Coal, Oil, Biomass, Solar, LPG, Steam
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Industrial Economic Categories
Food & Tobacco Textiles Apparel Lumber Furniture Paper Printing Chemicals Petroleum
Products Rubber
Leather Stone, Clay, etc. Primary Metals Primary metals (DSI aluminum) Fabricated Metals Machines & Computer Electric Equipment Transport Equipment Other Manufacturing Mining Agriculture (Irrigation)
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Industrial Demands
Enduse – Process Heat, Motors, Other Substitutable, Misc.
Cogeneration Feedstocks Technologies/fuels – Electric, Gas, Coal,
Oil, Biomass, Solar, LPG, Steam
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Transportation Demands
Economic Categories PassengerFreightOff Road
Enduse – Transport
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Transportation Technologies Light Propane Light CNG Light Electric Light Ethanol Light Gasoline-electric
hybrids Light Hybrid Diesel Light Fuel Cell Gasoline Light Fuel Cell CNG Light Fuel Cell Hydrogen Medium Propane Medium CNG Medium Ethanol Medium Hybrid Gasoline
Medium Hybrid Diesel Medium Fuel Cell Gasoline Medium Fuel Cell CNG Medium Fuel Cell Hydrogen Heavy Propane Heavy CNG Heavy Ethanol Heavy Hybrid Gasoline Heavy Hybrid Diesel Heavy Fuel Cell Gasoline Heavy Fuel Cell CNG Heavy Fuel Cell Hydrogen
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Energy Demand Methodology
Major Inputs and Outputs Fuel Categories Sector Categories Approach Structure Current status
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Modeling Approach
Two conceptual linchpins form the theoretical perspective used in the model to determine energy demand:
First, a “Stocks and Flow” simulation captures the physical aspects of the process, specifically the physical flow of entities within a system (For example, new investments increase the number of energy using devices, and retirements reduce the number of energy using devices).
Second, the qualitative choice theory (QCT) as put forth by the Nobel Laureate Daniel McFadden determines how consumers make their energy decisions (i.e., Accounting of the factors such as tastes and preferences in making decisions to choosing energy devices and processes).
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Energy Demand Structure
ProductionCapacity
Process EnergyRequirements
Device EnergyRequirements
EnergyDemandc:\windows\rfflow\training\dmdover1
Investments
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Demand Overview
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Energy Demand Mechanisms
ProductionCapacity
Process EnergyRequirements
Device EnergyRequirements
Process Efficiency
DeviceEfficiency
FuelChoice Saturation
c:\windows\rfflow\training\dmdover2
Investments
Utilization
EnergyDemand
Cogeneration
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Energy Demand Price EffectsInvestments
ProductionCapacity
Process EnergyRequirements
Device EnergyRequirements
EnergyDemand
Process Efficiency
DeviceEfficiency
Utilization
Cogeneration
FuelChoice Saturation
EnergyPrices
c:\windows\rfflow\training\enprcef1
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FuelPrices
(oil)(gas)
Capital Stocks(electric)
Retirements
(oil)(gas)
Stock Energy Requirements
(electric)Retirements
Capacity Utilization
Socio-demographic
Weather
Energy Use (by enduse)
New CapitalAdditions(by fuel)
New EnergyRequirements
(by fuel)
EnergyEfficiency
Investments
Technology Mix Through QCT
Total Energy Cost
O&MCosts
CapitalCosts
Energy Demand Overview
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Energy Demand Methodology
Major Inputs and Outputs Fuel Categories Sector Categories Approach Structure Current status
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Current Status
Model is currently is being calibrated Calibration horizon is 1986-2003 Calibrating to States total sectoral energy
from SEDS Will report on the results in our next
meeting
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Updates
Council’s existing models were used as a starting point for inputsResidential model (added new end-uses)Commercial (added new building types) Industrial models (updated Sector shares)
Sector and end-use load-shapesCalibration to system load (regional and state)
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ISSUES OF INTEREST
VINTAGE OF INPUT DATA COMMERCIAL sector characteristics by state INDUSTRIAL sector characteristics (drop in loads and recovery post 2001) LOADSHAPE for new end-uses
Residential ENTERTAINMENT Load (TV,VCR,DVD,COMPUTERS,…)
ELECTRIC VEHICLE penetration rates
Capacity adequacy (summer) Residential AC penetration rates
Incorporating IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature sensitive loads Economic impact
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Areas for review
State economic forecasts (medium term) Residential end-uses energy use Commercial end-uses energy use Industrial energy by sector Natural Gas consumption
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Preliminary Time-line for the 6th Plan
Complete preparation of the Demand forecasting model by Jan 2008.
Prepare Assumptions for Preliminary forecast Q1- 2008
Prepare preliminary draft forecast- Q2 2008
Review of preliminary forecast Finalize load forecast