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ASQ Future Study 2008“No Boundaries”

October 29, 2008

Juhani AnttilaVenture Knowledgist, Quality Integrationjuhani.anttila@telecon.fi , www.QualityIntegration.biz

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ASQ launched its fifth Futures Study in December 14, 2007: ASQ sponsored its first “Futures Study” in 1995 to provide an understanding of the forces that would shape the future of quality. Implications of these forces in 1995, and outcomes of the subsequent studies in 1999, 2001, and 2005 profoundly influenced ASQ’s direction. In 2008 there was about 90 participants representing 23 countries and different aspect of the economy from manufacturing, service, healthcare and education. Participation took place in an electronically hosted group process to develop, through a series of progressive sessions, a consensus on a short list of key forces that will affect quality and the quality profession. The involvement required between two and three hours between January 14 and March 3, 2008. Participants signed in three times at times convenient to them. Identifying the forces of change will complete the first phase of the study and conclude your commitment. (“Delphi methodology”) The study had several additional phases. The completed first phase – “the forces of change” became the starting point for several discussions exploring the implications of those forces. The first discussion occurred on May 4, 2008 in Houston, Texas, within a day-long Futures program hosted by the International Academy of Quality (IAQ) and ASQ.

ASQ Future Study 2008 - Introduction

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From an initial inventory of more than 100 forces ASQ selected 40+ to the first round. * Force was defined as “a powerful change or trend in a social, political, technological, or behavioral area that will impact people’s lives”, and specifically those acting on the future of “quality” were focused on. * Concept quality was not defined. For purposes of this study, quality is what you think it is. * The future was defined as the next 15 years

First Round

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Aging Population, High World Population, Global Citizens, Safety, More Disposable Income, Consumer Sophistication, Ethical Considerations, Spiritual Renewal , Mass Medium , Internet Commerce, Innovation Slows, Social Responsibility,

Ethics and Quality Standards Merge, Knowledge Work Dwindles, Outsourcing, Labor Shortages, Genetic Advances, Biotechnology, Distance Learning, Personal Manufacturing, Core Competencies, Telecities, Smart Dust, Greenhouse Gases, Global + Local = Glocal, Corporate Corruption, New Traders, ISO, Decentralization, Quality Standards,

Economics, New Ideas, Meaning Matters, Generational Synergy, Learning Culture, Transparency, Associations, Mass Customization, Waste, Globalization, Innovation/Creativity/Change, Value Creation, Changes in Quality

In the first round 1) Select up to 10 forces you think are the most likely to shape quality in powerful and forceful ways and tell us why.2) Improve the inventory with forces you observe that are not on this list, or may be better stated in other words and tell us why.

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Aging Population, High World Population, Global Citizens, Safety, Consumer Sophistication, Ethical Considerations, Mass Medium, Internet Commerce, ocial Responsibility, Ethics and Quality Standards Merge, Outsourcing, Labor Shortages, Genetic Advances, Biotechnology, Distance Learning, Core Competencies, Greenhouse Gases, Global + Local = Glocal, New Traders, Decentralization, Quality Standards, Economics, New Ideas, Learning Culture, Transparency, Mass Customization, Waste, Globalization, Innovation/Creativity/Change, Value Creation, Changes in

Quality, Organizational Social Responsibility, Value Trends, Competitive Advantage, Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy, Emerging Economies, Quality Management, Ethics, Customer Expectations, New Market Niches, Nanotechnology, Quality of Life, Global, Local, &

Globalization, Khronos to Kairos, Politics/Terrorism, Pharmacogenetics, Political Corruption, Generation Motivational Differences, Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value Creation/Learning Culture/New Ideas/Changes in Quality, Identity/Security/Alternative Lives & Identities  

Environmental Concern, Aging Population/Labor Shortage/Healthcare Crisis, Privacy, Aging Population/Labor Shortage, Internet Media, Shortages of Specific Skilled Workers, 21st Century Technology, Scarcity of Resources, Rise of Information Services Economy, Agility,

Social/Professional Virtual Networking, Global Citizens/Internet Commerce/Outsourcing/Global+Local/Globalization/Knowledge Work Dwindles, Quality/Innovation, Unforeseen Catastrophic Event, Ideological/Cold War Between U.S. and China, Biotechnology/Genetics/Ethics, Geographical Preference, Informal Learning/Social Collaboration, Sense of Meaning, Exponential Growth of Information, More Demanding Society, Appreciative Inquiry, Consumer Sophistication/Mass Customization/Value Creation, Global Quality Movement, Less Powerful U.S., Global Labor Price, Powerful Companies, Market Reconfiguration, Communities of Tolerance, Information Security, Healthcare, Product

Safety, Speed, Differentiation, Widening Have/Have Not Gap, Eco-efficiency, Management Competence, ISO, Virtual Offices, Service Industry Sector, Long-term Profitability, Service-Profit Link, Quality Integrated into Education Curriculum Design  

From Round #1 to Round #2

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For the next Round:1) Select up to 10 forces you think are the most likely to shape quality in powerful and forceful ways and tell us why.2) Improve the inventory with forces you observe that are not on this list, or may be better stated in other words and tell us why.

Result of the Round 1 included following 95 items plus many pages of explanations:

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1. Aging Population 2. High World Population3. Global Citizens4. Safety 5. Consumer Sophistication6. Ethical Considerations7. Internet Commerce8. Social Responsibility9. Outsourcing10. Biotechnology11. New Traders12. Economics13. Waste

From Round #2 to Round #3

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In the third phase:1. You should select 10 of the 24 forces and rank order them – 10 being the most significant, 9 the second most significant, and so on. 2. You should tell us why you selected your 10 forces

14. Globalization15. Innovation/Creativity/Change16. Value Creation17. Climate Change18. Customer Expectations19. Quality of Life20. Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value Creation/Learning Culture/New Ideas/Changes in Quality21. Environmental Concern22. 21st Century Technology23. Consumer Sophistication/Mass Customization/Value Creation24. Healthcare

Summary of the Round 2:

Additionally a lot of explanations

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Results from the Round #3

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Force Total

Globalization 255

Social Responsibility 228

Innovation/Creativity/Change 208

Aging Population 174

Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value Creation/Learning Culture/New Ideas/Changes in Quality 165

Healthcare 161

Environmental Concern 155

21st Century Technology 152

Internet Commerce 145

Customer Expectations 144

Consumer Sophistication 130

Ethical Considerations 126

Outsourcing 122

Quality of Life 118

Consumer Sophistication/Mass Customization/ Value Creation 116

Safety 114

High World Population 113

Value Creation 109

Economics 108

New Traders 98

Biotechnology 91

Climate Change 85

Global Citizens 80

Waste 48

Scoring of the ranked 10 forces that participants think are most likely to shape the future of quality in powerful and forceful ways. 1 - least significant to 10 - most significant. 57 pages explanations of why participants selected the force.

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Forces that most likely shape the future of quality in powerful and forceful ways

1. Globalization (#1 in 2005)

2. Social Responsibility (#8 in 2005)

3. New Dimensions for Quality (#2 in 2005)

4. Aging Population

5. Healthcare

6. Environmental Concern

7. 21st Century Technology

The fifth Futures Study (*) of the American Society for Quality in 2008

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No boundaries – The old boundaries have been

obliterated.

These trends increase uncertainty, variety,

variability, dynamics in all areas of business

management.

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Rank of forces that most likely shape the future of quality in powerful and forceful ways

Relative scoring

1. Aging population, Healthcare, Quality of life, Safety, High world population 680

2. Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value creation/Learning culture/New ideas/Changes in quality

482

3. Globalization, Outsourcing, Global citizens 457

4. Customer expectations, Consumer sophistication/Mass customization/ Value creation

390

5. Social responsibility, Ethical considerations 354

6. Environmental concern, Climate change, Waste 288

7. 21st century technology, Biotechnology 243

8. Internet commerce 145

9. Economics 108

10. New traders 98

The fifth ASQ Futures Study – Another insight of the results

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A. Utopian scenario:- Global transformation: Innovation of a complex system

B. Preferred scenario:- Global adaptation: Evolution toward a synergistic society

C. Business-as usual scenario: - Global stagnation: The halt of human progress

D. Doomsday scenario:- Global disintegration: The crisis of environmental collapse

Scenarios and effects on key forces

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Implications for qualityImplications for organizationsImplications for the profession

The “Next Exit” to future success: - Global, social, environmental scale

- Getting the message heard

- Process to systems (Call it the “Big Q”)

- Speed- Relevance, knowledge,

and learning- The bottom line, the top

line, and the triple bottom line

(“People, Planet, Profit”)

Implications of the preferred scenario

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ASQ (2008): ASQ’s future of quality studyhttp://www.asq.org/quality-progress/2008/10/global-quality/futures-study.pdf

What other material is available for the issue?

Reference

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