1 © 2003 cisco systems, inc. all rights reserved. cisco confidential universal communication...

1© 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Confidential

Universal Communication NetworksA Vision for the Future of Communications

Draft v1.0

Robin Smith December 04

Cisco Market Development


The Objective

• Define a Next Generation Information & Communication Technology Architecture

• Viewed as the IT revolution to leverage the matured Internet

• Maximise the “Law of Mobility”

• Bring “True” Collaboration to “All” People

• Conform to Triple “Something”


Executive Summary


Convergence, Where are we Today

• The Law of Mobility

Moore’s, Metcalfe’s, McGuires’s

• ICT’s Status

Industry, Geopolitical

• Digital Natives

• Triple Something

• The IMS Myth

Standards bodies issue


A Proposal for Change

• Create an ICT architecture to fit the Internet culture

• Force the creation the next generation SP

• Do it time to market like the Internet was

• Work for disruptive partners and users

Growth economies, digital migrants and digital analogues


The IT Market: For Incumbents

• Innovators Solution vs. Innovators Dilemma

• Tech’s Idle Billions

“The tech sector isn't just rich. It's filthy, stinking rich

But the fact is that U.S. companies are under pressure from overseas rivals as never before and can't afford to sit on their hands, much less on the stockpiles of cash they could invest in growth

Thanks to careful management, CEOs have a ton of cash on their balance sheets. Now it's time to put it to good use”

• Innovation Overshoot, New developments are

Making IT more complex not simpler

Making IT too expensive for the broader market

• Do not be afraid of Economic Migration, its not a bad thing

Developing vs. Developed economies

Blue Collar Manufacturing > Jobs < White Collar Services


The IT Market: For Innovators

• Gilded Era came and went with The Bubble

• Golden Era is about now

• Those who can take advantage of this time will grow strongly and lead the IT world

• Those who rest on their laurels will become the victims of someone else’s new and disruptive technology


Disrupting the IT Market for the Better

• What Disrupts

Simpler

Cheaper

• Who to Disrupt

The IT Incumbents, Msoft, Dell, HP and yes…CSCO

The “tired” OS

The “gadget” OS


Target Market that will Accept Disruption

• AnaloguesOlder generation, those who have never needed to use modern IT

Will adopt when simple and cheap enough to use and buy

Forced to adopt when socially bad not to do so

Developing economies that have never been able to afford IT

• Digital ImmigrantsThose brought up during the IT and Internet revolution

Forced to migrate to secure a decent career

Still have some issues with IT complexity and Cost

Essentially the core of people using IT today

• Digital NativesThe Wealthy, Power Users, Young people who have never seen a paper office

• First 2 will easily accept disruption

• Digital Natives do not need to, but can be targetted once the new tech has critical mass, mind share etc


Good Enough Computing

• Good Enough Computing

$100 PC

$10K terrabit router

Web Services


What is Wrong TodayWe’re not really innovating in spite of our claims

• User I/O: Complex, Expensive, InconvenientMom cannot use a PC after 20 years of OS development

Too many, too complex apps. What’s the minimum needed to be useful

Growth of sales driven by inefficient HW compatibility and SW efficiency

Growth not driven by the “User Convenience Advantage”

Users will pay more only if it makes their lives better (resounding 3G failure)

• Networks: Complex, Access expensive, EvolutionaryPeople cannot easily connect to collaborate after 15 years of the Internet

User access is not widely unified making network connection complex

Diverged network services make access to collaboration services difficult

Service is expensive due to range of diverged network services

User Access and Networks are only evolving…Poorly, Slowly. Legacy is limiting real progress


Why is Cisco Best Positioned to DeliverA Vision for the Future of Communications

• Innovation on this scale requires ‘The Will and the Means’

• Cisco has both in the following:

A cultural desire to ‘truly’ innovate

IP heritage and vision for the future of networking

Financial strength for the huge R&D effort (Cash but no dividend)

• However the Market is waiting

Wall Street still believes we will do something really useful (mid-high end P/E)

But Wall Street are waiting for us to invest (CSCO still <$20)

• The World is snapping at our heels

“Tech’s Idle Billions” If we wait others may take our lead


In SummaryA Vision for the Future of Communications

• Communication between people today is cumbersome, expensive and therefore under utilised

• Tech industry is battered but surviving the biggest market downturn in history… with plenty of cash

• Tech industry believes arrogantly that it is still innovating. Clearly it has done nothing significant since the advent of Windows and the Internet

• Cisco is in an excellent position to step up and Lead the world to a truly next generation of people communications

• To remedy the innovation stagnation we need to develop technology to bring about “A sudden or momentous change”

… A Universal Communications Revolution


Universally Available Collaboration

What is it in more detail

How to approach its development


What it is… What it is notUniversally Available Collaboration

• A completely new concept for information exchange between individuals and applications

• Uses existing technology that offers Convenience

• Develops new technology where it does not

• Must conform to these primary success factors

Convenient

Simple

Cost Effective

• Simple from the outside… Inside detail key to sustaining this Simplicity


Technology ScopeUniversally Available Collaboration

• Using the following technology definitionsUAC - Universally Available Collaboration

UCN - Universal Convenient Network

PCD - Personal Convenient Device

PCA - Personal Convenient Application

• Convenient Technologies shouldApply to all user types

Appear homogenous and modular

Be convergent rather than divergent … standards

Encompass any form of communication (xPlay)


Top Down SolutionUniversally Available Collaboration

• People on the street want convenience, simplicity, speed, automation… at an equitable price

Develop a simple and convenient PCD

Develop Universal Convenient Application’s (UCA’s)

Develop or help the SP’s develop the UCN

IP as it stands may not be the answer


Where To Focus DevelopmentUniversally Available Collaboration

• Development of UCA’s

Acquire and Partner (QNX)

• Development of PCD’s

Acquire or Partner (or respin iPaq, PC, Mac, TV, Phone’s)

• Development of the UCN

SP Partner (alliance with SP partners)

• Develop the UAC technology Mind Share

Inbound, Outbound, Marketing


To FollowUniversally Available Collaboration

• For more detail

Whitepaper - Universally Available Collaboration

1 © 2003 cisco systems, inc. all rights reserved. cisco confidential universal communication...

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