1 2 3 4 5 6 sx degrees to hell...... four years to a prosperous future or
TRANSCRIPT
Six
Degrees
to Hell
E. Ortega
A. N. R. Costa
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering
Food Engineering SchoolState University of Campinas
Four Yearsto a
Prosperous Future
or
The Expansion of Capitalism
Competitive advantage is attained when larger and more efficient factories produce more goods to be sold in a
growing market
Mental ModelEconomic Progress
finds the best conditions to develop
in production and distribution systems
ruled by the free market where the reinvested profits
make the labor and the capital
increasingly productive
The Expansion of Capitalism•The Growth of the Gross Product (GNP) Maximizes the Human Welfare
Mental Model
•Each Event Regarding Scarcity of Resources Triggers the Development of Substitute Ones
•The Concerns about the Environment Health are Important, but they Should Balance with the Requirements of the Economic Growth, if a High Way of Living is to be Kept
•Enterprises and Free Market Forces will Allocated People and Resources for a Better and Superior Use
The Problems Cannot Be Solved Within the Boudaries of the Mentality that Generated
ThemAlbert Einstein
Industrial Revolution
The Expansion of Capitalism
Metamorphosis: ...A complete change of form, structure, or substance, as transformation by magic or witchcraft.
- Random House Dictionary
KeyIndustries
Linkages
Desplacements of Craft
Work
Import Substituti
on
ExportMarkets
Sprouting
LowProductivity
LowWages
Ripening
HighProductivity
HighWages
Dual Economy
Temporary Key Phases of an Industrial RevolutionSource: Taylor, K. S.
http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
Meg
ato
nn
es)
10,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
5,000
1950
0
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
GW
P 1
99
5 U
S$
Tri
llio
ns)
Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website
Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGWP
Profits
Rent Productio
n
Income/Demand
Investment
Purchases
Rent
Pro
fits
Early Industrial Capitalism, with Landrents
Wages
Workers
Landlords
Capitalists
Labor(Capital)
Exports
Goods
Low Productivity Sectors
High Productivity Sectors
Flows of Goods and Labor During Dual Phase EconomySource: Taylor, K. S.
http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996
Labor(Consumer Goods)
15001000
20001900 2100
2
4
6
8
10
600
400
200
800
1000
ppm
Worl
d P
op
ula
tion
in
B
illion
s
CO
2
Con
cen
trati
on
6.5 billion, 2007
9 billion, 2050
Multinacional
CorporationsInformation
Age
Industrial Revolution
Green Revolution
Enlightenment
Population and CO2 Concentration
1100 Years
* Does not Exist Naturally and is Human Generated
Greenhouse Gas
Chemical
Formula
Pre-Industrial
Concentration
1994 Concentrati
on
Percent Increas
e
Human Source
Carbon Dioxide
CO2278 ppm 358 ppm 30% Fossil Fuel
CombustionLand Use ChangeCement Production
Methane CH4700 ppb 1721 ppm 240% Fossil Fuels
Rice PaddiesWaste Dumps
Nitrous Oxide
N2O 275 ppb 811 ppb 150% FertilizerIndustrial ProcessesFossil Fuel Combustion
Sulfur Hexafluoride
SF6* 0 0,032 ppb Dielectric Fluid
The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution
What and Who Makes the Weather?
Lessons from the Past
What is the Present
Condition?
• Tectonic Causes– Landmass Distribution
• Continental Drifts
– Underseas Ridges Activity• Sea Floor Spreading
• Astronomical Causes– Elliptical Orbit of the Earth
• 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes
– Wobble in Earth’s Orbit• 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%
– Solar Energy Output• 100,000 Year Cycle
• Atmospheric Causes– Heat Retention
• Greenhouse Effect
– Solar Reflectivity• Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice
Caps
What is their Value for the
Future?
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Today
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere Are at a Higher Level than for
400,000 Years
Part
s p
er
Million
of
Carb
on
D
ioxid
e
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
Years before the PresentSource: Co-operative Research Centre for
Greenhouse Accounting, 2001
Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago
Vostok Ice Core DataNational Geophysical Data
Center
Years Before Present (x 1000)
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
. C
+/-
N
orm
al)
Carb
on
Dio
xid
e(p
art
s p
er
million
)
-10
-8
-6
-4
0
2
140 160
-2
80
60
40
20
1201000
180
200
220
240
280
280
300
Ch
an
ge in
Tem
pera
ture
(º
C)
Thousands of Years Before Present
2
0
-2
-4
18 16 14 12 12 8 6 4 02
Little Ice Age
Holocen Maximum
What and Who Makes the Weather?
Lessons from the Past
What is the Present
Condition?
• Tectonic Causes– Landmass Distribution
• Continental Drifts
– Underseas Ridges Activity• Sea Floor Spreading
• Astronomical Causes– Elliptical Orbit of the Earth
• 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes
– Wobble in Earth’s Orbit• 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%
– Solar Energy Output• 100,000 Year Cycle
• Atmospheric Causes– Heat Retention
• Greenhouse Effect
– Solar Reflectivity• Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice
Caps
What is their Value for the
Future?
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Today
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere Are at a Higher Level than for
400,000 Years
Part
s p
er
Million
of
Carb
on
D
ioxid
e
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
Years before the PresentSource: Co-operative Research Centre for
Greenhouse Accounting, 2001
Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago
Vostok Ice Core DataNational Geophysical Data
Center
Years Before Present (x 1000)
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
. C
+/-
N
orm
al)
Carb
on
Dio
xid
e(p
art
s p
er
million
)-10
-8
-6
-4
0
2
140 160
-2
80
60
40
20
1201000
180
200
220
240
280
280
300
Ch
an
ge in
Tem
pera
ture
(º
C)
Thousands of Years Before Present
2
0
-2
-4
18 16 14 12 12 8 6 4 02
Little Ice Age
Holocen Maximum
The Present Impact
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases.
Summary of Main Findings
A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible
influence on many physical and biological systems.
Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic
drivers.Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in
global average temperature. Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and
projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.
The Present Impact
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently
occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.
Summary of Main findings
Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.
Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.
A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate
change.
C 1999 Addison Wesley Longman Inc.
The Present ImpactBiological
NAM
355
455
94%
92%LA
53 5
98%
100%
EUR
355
28,115
94%
89%AFR
5 2100%
100%
AS
106
8
96%
100%
ANZ
6 0
100% -
TER
764
28,586
94%
90%
PR*
120
24
91%
100%
MFW**
1 85
100%
99%
GLO
765
28,671
94%
90%
0
600 400 200 0
Millions of Years Ago
Extinction Rate
Permian Extinction
s
Number of Families
Cretaceous
Extictions500
1500
1000
2500
2000
Nu
mb
er o
f Fam
ilies
( )
100
80
60
40
20
0
Physical
Percentage of significant changes
consistent with warming
Number of significant
observed changes
Number of significant observed changesPercentage of
significant changes
consistent with warming
What is the CurrentConsensus?
The Future Impact
More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields
not covered in previous assessments.
Summary of Main findings
More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of
future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments.
Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events
are very likely to change.
Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the
21st century.
The Future Impact
Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures
increase.
Summary of main findings
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past emissions.
Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could
impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.
• Delphic Oracle?• Nostradamus Next Door?• Prophecies Already Coming True• A Secret Surviving Manual or a Global Warning?• Refuges in Arctic or Life a Little Bit Warmer?
A Little Bit Warmer?
Windows into a Changing World
If 6 Degrees of Cooling Nearly Wiped Us in the Past, Might Six Degrees of
Warming Have Similar Effect?
Is There a Climate Policy ?DEGREE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
ACTION NEEDED CO2 TARGET
One Degree 0.1 - 1.0ºC Avoidance Probably not
Possible
350 ppm (*)
Two Degrees 1.1 – 2.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2015
400 ppm
Threshold for Carbon-Cycle Feedback?
Three Degress
2.1 – 3.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2030
450ppm
Threshold for Siberian Methane Feedback
Four Degrees 3.1 – 4.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2050
550 ppm
Five Degrees 4.1 – 5.0ºC Allow Constantly Rising Emission
650 ppm
Six Degrees 5.1 – 6.0ºC Allow Very High Emissions
800 ppm
(*) Today’s Level is 380 ppm
Possible Utopias
Utopia 1: a place of ideal perfection in laws, government, and social conditions 2: an impractical scheme for social improvement
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary, 2004