Dr. RK Malik Dr. Andrew McDonald International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Bihar Partners Meeting Patna July 6, 2012

Project Goal: To increase food and income security at scale in South Asia through sustainable intensification of cereal-based systems.

Metrics of success: crop productivity increases, income generation; improved nutritional outcomes are second-order objectives.

Four countries: India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan Two donors: USAID, BMFG Duration: Phase I: 2009-12; Phase II (pending): 2012-15

Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia

The Challenge: catalyzing durable change with millions of small and medium-scale farmers

Poverty, prices, food insecurity in South Asia Persistent rural & urban poverty and vulnerability

Persistent volatility & uncertainty • Volatile food and energy prices • Natural disasters of varying

magnitudes

Dots = 50,000 people living on less than $1 day

Sub-Saharan Africa87.0

South Asia

263.6

East Asia & Pacific

109.3

Latin America

& Caribbean

18.9

Other6.3

People in living on $0.75-$1/day

World food and energy prices

sResearcher developed

technologies

Farmer adoption

How do technologies move? And are they the ‘right’ ones?

The status quo isn’t good enough….

CSISA: A ‘big tent’ initiative Integrating disciplines and organizations

• Development and dissemination of sustainable, productive, and economical agricultural technologies

• Future-oriented process-based research (e.g. net GHGs, NUE, WUE, models simulations)

• Development of high-yielding and stress-tolerant cereal varieties (wheat, rice, and maize)

• Strategic partnerships (public + private sectors) to increase the scale and longevity of interventions

• Strengthen market linkages and business development (technologies alone are not sufficient)

• Capacity building through training and scholarship

• Policy analysis and evidence-based advocacy

• Shift in geographic focus to Eastern India and Bangladesh • More $ resources to support key activities in Bihar, including flexible funds to be managed jointly with NARES through state-level ‘Advisory and Investment Committees’. These funds will support innovation and new thinking, and close gaps where other investments are lacking. • Explicit focus on forming and supporting strategic partnerships

What’s new in Phase II?

Drivers of change in S. Asia Agriculture • Cereal demand projected to: double by 2025, quadruple by 2050?

• Land, water, energy, labor scarcity

• Increasing production costs

• Resource loss and degradation (land, water, soil)

• Risks and uncertainty oHigh temperatures, drought, inundation o Less predictable climate systems

Floods, cyclones, and tidal surges, salinity across the coastal belt

Drought , overuse of groundwater, acid soils

Seasonal inundation, flash flooding

Temperature / drought stress, arsenic

Limited-source surface irrigation

Production-ecologies are distinct in cases over small distances

Evolved operational model in CSISA Phase II guided by: Technology development as beginning, not an ends Support to change agents to go to scale

CSISA-supported technical innovations

CSISA technical priorities

Water productivity

Labor scarcity

Soil degradation

Climate resilience

Yield Profitability

Conservation agriculture (CA)

*** ** *** *** * ***

Site-specific nutrient management

** ** ** ***

Scale-appropriate mechanization

*** ** ** ** ***

Laser land leveling *** * * *** Elite germplasm ** ** *** ** System intensification (more crops/yr)

* ** *** ***

Post-harvest storage *** Improved livestock feeding

** *** ***

Addressing non-technological barriers that impede innovation

Needs-based irrigation with AWD can reduced irrigation water use for rice.

BUT…

Business model for pump rental must favor conservation. (in BD they don’t)

Remembering the simple things Good agronomy pays large dividends

Uniform placement of fertilizers:

10 -15% yield gain

More precise approaches needn’t be sophisticated to be successful

How do farmers make decisions? Fundamental research gaps on conception of risk, behavioral science, etc.

Literacy / numeracy What information is valued, actionable, and profitable? When must it be provided?

Matching the tactic and tool to the audience…….

• Farmers manage systems, not single commodities

• There is no universal template for agricultural development (Bangladesh is a long way from Punjab)

• Blending scientific rigor with participatory, demand-lead approaches is a must (neither approach is transformative in isolation) )

CSISA axioms for success

Release of elite seeds

Wide-spread cultivation of elite seeds

?

Theory of change After establishing goals, how do we achieve them?

Steps to Create a Theory of Change (adapted from www.theoryofchange.org)

1. Identify a long-term goal. 2. Conduct ‘backwards mapping’ to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve that goal. 3. Identify the interventions required to create these preconditions. 4. Develop indicators for each precondition that will be used to assess the performance of the interventions. 5. Write a narrative that integrates the various moving parts in your theory. **If a plausible theory of change for specific goals cannot be identified and executed within the timeframe of the project, those goals should be dropped or given low priority.

Defining impact pathways: a key element for project planning

Transforming agriculture in Bihar is an enormous challenge, will potentially huge rewards CSISA will not succeed acting alone (full stop)

But partnerships have to be based on: • Clear value proposition to motivate the participation of all partners • Joint ownership and commitment to success • Timelines for action • Coordination of activities along common impact pathways…..

Thank You

BUT PLENTY OF INGENUITY. MANY ROADBLOCKS….