06 12 locked in coal whitepaper
TRANSCRIPT
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Locked-in
T Fl Rss n cl-fr Pr Plts
Ts Vltl itrtl cl Mrt
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Table of Contents
ExEcutivE Summary ES-1
introduction 1
SEction 1:Why coal is a dead man walking in developed contry energy markets 2
ne s es ps he s p 2
cs cs ieses Pe s es 2
SEction 2:
The Rising Cost o Internationally Traded Coal An Emerging OCEC? 5
as p e hee p es 7
SEction 3:
Tata Mndra: A Case Stdy in Coal Price Risks 9
Epese Pe n Pe? 12
SEction 4:
The Potential Impact o Natral Gas Prices on Coal-Fired Generation o Electricity 14
SEction 5:
The Crossover Point Between Coal-fred Generation and Renewable and Efciency Options 17
Ee Ee Ps the chepes Se ne Pe 17
ce reebe Ee ts hep ee 17
concluSion:
A Rational Examination o the Economic Risks o Coal-fred Power Plants 19
acknowlEdgEmEntS:
the Se cb shes h Be Bhe hs epese, e, e hs
ep we s sh h c Ppe hs shs h he hepe he ep
hs ppe i , e beee eee ps te ne, l m, m
Be, m Phps he es pess
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3/28ES-1lockEd-in Eee S
execuTiVe SuMMaRy
c -, he h eses
pe, s e he es b hes ths
- ess hh p ss sse
esps sse h -e pe p es-
es oe he ps s es e e se pb
pps, ss, hes
he ee e, - s s-
ess ee he uS he Eu Hee, ees-
se ee s be ses e,
s e s -e ee pb heh
he, ch, i, he ps he eep
whe he ee h heh ps
p eses e es e , he
ps e ths ep ees he e
ss hese eses e es
be s p h ee e u-
es p hese ss es
s p p e he pe
ebe pp s fs h hese be ee es be e
ee ee ee ees the
s s s:
Plant constrction costs are rising and increasingly n-
predictable: oe he ps ee, he uS ese-
hee, p ss he ese b p 100 pee
e eses ppse he s
phse mee, ee he bsee e -
s h ese he s s, eh
es s pes e -e
ee s es he se --e s
pjes h s ese he s
e pjes
Coal prices are volatile, increasing, and less predict-
able: oe se, p he e ps
e he e 40 50 es s s-p s eqees e feb
eps s pe ss ie,
pes he hs bee, e, e
pes eps hese eses he
hs e as pes he ese s
e he ps ee, e se e
pes he s ee shp p. 1 up pe
es e s ee ss he s -
es es es he ue Ses
ch
Political risk from an emerging OCEC is rising: Jss he e e s e b s
be es, s , he e
e s e b js s es h pe
80 pee e e se the p
ep es e as ie-
s e espsbe h 50 pee e-
e se ies hese -
PCCI without Nuclear
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20
Q1 2011
219
180
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
CostIdex
(2000=100)
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121
Austral ia n C oal U .S. O il
U.S.
Dollars
240
200
0
40
80
120
160
AUSTRALIAN COAL ($/mt)v,
OIL ($/BBL)
20022012
FIGuRE 2: Benchark Astraian Coa Prices s. Cre Oi Prices 2002-2012FIGuRE 1: IHS CERA Coa Pant Capita Costs North Aerica
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4/28ES-2lockEd-in Eee S
es e e e se e
pes see e es; ee,
e, s oz c Ep ces
(ocEc)
Reglatory risk and a lack of cost pass-throgh
exacerbates exposre to volatile coal prices: le
se s ps e pe
sppes e he hhes s s pes b i
ee es be es, ch
i, he eepe ps e bes
sh ps, hh e ses epse he
e pe he ee ocEc seee
e he b pss hh ese ss
e es e ses me ss
he e he pesse hs e e-
pes p s, spe as, hee
see e pjes sh s he 4 gw t m
kshp u me Pe Pjes (umPPs)
e seee s
Competing renewable energy sorces are coming
down in price frther increasing market ncertainty:
ms ebe eses p he eeze s e
pe beee 5 10 es/wh3
be he s e -e pe he ue
Ses the se s e s ph (Pv)
he ses ps he uS, hee pees
pe pe pps h he hepes sse s4 i js e e, 2008
2009, he pe s Pv e 50 pee, e
b he 14 pee e 20105 rp s
es hese ehes pse pp
s h e ss e
pe se eses whe hh p epe-
e (cpE) e ee ses e s
e epse e pe (opE) ies-
bs sses h he e eqees
hse p s e e se e he e
40 es ees epse he pse sp-
e ehes e s Pv i essee, he
hesees he ee es ss he
pes es e e es h e
js ee peebe, b s e-
peebe
Coal se is at its lowest point in recent history in the
u.S. and Erope: i he ue Ses, ps 168
e -e pe ps he bee be
he 100 es ps e pe eee
e e p ese ee-
ss h ese sss pps as
es, -e ee hs e s es she
e ee he ps 35 es; the -
b -e ee he uS ppe
34 pee mh 2012, he es h
she se J 19736 i Epe, s she
ee hs ee 394 pee 257
pee e he ps 20 es7 o he 120 -e
pe ps ppse Epe se 2007, h
ze he be he e she
he e s e p i 2011, 71 pee
he e ee p he Epe u s
eebe ee, he 22 pee s s-
e ee
Too Big to Fail coal projects can and shold be
avoided: despe s pe opE e
pje spss e eese pe
, he s s, he s s
es whe p e pjes sees, sh s ee ee eebes,
es e pjes e hse s
es h bs he es Feqe, he ps
ses pee b hese ses eze,
h s ese seqees F epe,
ee bee s he 4 8 (gw)
t m pje i s pee, pes e
hee es hse e s b; e h
pes sh he pe bse he es
he ps ee Hee, t m s b
b -e pe phse eee h eshese ee pes ees e
he ee ess e bs sses
es pss s pe eses e-
e i ses
i , J 2012, he pe he e-
e pee Sp S p nh
d e h pee ee
se p, b e e s
sses he pe9 the pe e
se-h-epee h ee e,
y=0.8804x+20.881
R2=0.6635
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 1 45 157 169 181 193 205 217 2 29 241
U.S.
Dollars
250
200
0
50
100
150
TREND LINE
MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES
FEBRUARY 20022012
FOB NEWCASTLE (USD/mt)
FIGuRE 3: Benchark Astraian Coa Price Tren 2002-2012
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5/28ES-3lockEd-in Eee S
e pes pe ses he , he ss
e s se se he ps se
s s e s es i he bsee
se e he ee he p, he p-
e hepe se he p e
eeps, ee hh s ep bhes
he ese ss he he p s se
F eqe pe ss
s ee h eees hehe he e-
es e eses e s
pses s - s eep es
the pees he s e
ss, he w B, e
pppe s s i e
pe ee zes es
ee es, s e s he heh ee
h sse h e ps, e ee
he :
Recommendations:
Assme rising coal prices: i p, he
eseebe e, ss sh s-
se h es ss se e-
pes e he e 10 es h
e ss ese he e
es 6 pee pe e ( pee e
h he e f, hhee s ee)
he e he p
Assme accrate discont rates: ipppe
s es se s pjes
h ee hh peees cpE e-
e opE i p, ppses e-
e, ss sh se
s e eq s ppse e e
he pje, s e bse he
s p ssee b he ppe he
pje
Establish a risk premim: F ss
sh ee e he b
he s se be he hs
esbsh s pe eze he s pje e ss-ee pjes bse
he ese he s e e he ee
he p, ps ees -
ee ee e ee pjes,
hee sh ss e pese
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6/281lockEd-in i
inTRoducTion
F h he e e s Js e
es s hh h esee
hep -e ee s ebe the 2007
uS n Ee teh lbs (nEtl)
t ree s e Coals Resurgence in Elec-
tric Power Generation e 151 ppse
e ps h pe 90,000 mw e -
e p10 i h se e, he msshses
ise teh (mit) e eese
-sp ee uS ee eses h
s pe hep b ee
ee bse s e e s e he
e mit e b s: We believe that coal
use will increase under any oreseeable scenario be-
cause it is cheap and abundant.11
Hee, he pse esee hep -
e ee pe ee hs e eze
nhee s he e esee -e ee-
e ee h he ue Ses Epe i
he ue Ses, e he pjes pee he 2007 nEtl ep ee b o he 120
-e pe ps ppse Epe se 2007,
h ze he be he e
she he e s e p
a he se e he es ees he
pe the s hs p -
e, e s es h ebe e
pee h ss es spp ee he uS
12 Sbs ee ee s he eee
epe e e h ee
p e ses e c es
se es s ppe spp
ee as es , h ee ee
s, he pe he e she h
he hese se he uS
despe hs ees es, he ees-
he s -e ee ee-
e ps pes s e
e19 i , be s -
e ps, pes hep b -
e ee e s spes s sse
ths ep sees es es b he
h p pes e he ps ee
he hee s sbs e
s eses e he 40 e ee e -
e pe p
THE dISRuPTIvE POTENTIAlOf SOlAR Pv
the es s Pv he p pe
ee es he p h s e
p pe pps he s-
es ps he ue Ses13 F se Pv
hs bee s pee h pees
h he hepes pe ss e he ueSes s c14 ths hs
bee ebe b s es
p eses se p15 i js e
e, 2008 2009, he pe s Pv
e 50 pee, e b he 14 pee
e 201016
the ee e ss es-
ss s epee e s ee
b he se p Pv hs e
22 pee e s17 ass pe-
he se p hee es
beee 2010 2018 ( 40 gw 320
gw), p 53 pee e ss18
these p s es pse pp
s h e ss e
pe se eses ies b-
s sses h he e eqees
hse p s e e se e he
e 40 es ees epse he pse
spe ehes e S Pv i essee,
he hesees he ee esss he s pes es
e e es ess
SPiRiTwood,
noRTh dakoTa
uSa
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7/282lockEd-in Se 1: wh c is de m w deepe c Ee mes
why coaL iS a dead Man waLking
in deVeLoPed counTRy eneRgy
MaRkeTS
euRoPean
union
i e 2010 ke Pe, he sse ee
ebe he eee ee deshe
B, s ssee
Coal is a dead man walking, banks wont
fnance them, insurance companies wont
insure them. The EPA is coming ater
them and the economics to make it clean
dont work.
ths see e sze sees
hes h he pee he e he
ue Ses Hee, sses e he eee
s e p ppss espe
sss pps eh ee e
p ppse20 m hese s e s
e b Epe the e e
be
new VS. exiSTing PLanTS and The coST oF
PoLLuTion conTRoL
a p e p he s
ee -e pe ps e he esee ees he uS he Eu s he e he
es fee i he uS sbs j he
-e p e e beee 1968 1988,
he h he -s e p s pp-
e 10 es i Epe s e p ess
the ee e bh e-e ps s
36 es, he he ee e s-e p s
h h21 ae 30-35 es pe -
e ps, e es s ese -
, hs e he b p
(he peee s hee p)
he 22 a sbs p he es fee,
bh he ue Ses Epe ( pes-
b esehee he ) s eh he
e hee pes s ee hehe ee he
es hes s s j
e ees ps
Es ps hs e e -
ze ee s eb
he e s se Hee, e p
be e be, he eee eees s
e he s ss sse h
e ees Fhe, ee eqe-
es sse ps e p e s-
e e s h es s, s p
ss e hhe
F hese ess, h he se es
pe e -e s s s s e
epese h h es -e ps23
ths hs be s he se
e be -e ps he ue
Ses Ee hee he pe hses eb,
he h epe p, see ee he
e ese ss e ee sh pe
e, hs ee hh e ss
the e he uS hs bee ee he se e
he e, e ee s he s se
ess ee s B e ees ps e
e b he e e he se p
e ees s e e esbe F hs
es, ses e s he uS he ee
bee e whe ee ess be se-
h e e ee h he s he epe, he
be ese ee s e se
se he s p he e s
he s hs bee ze as -
seqee, he e p ep
fee -e ps be increase, he h
eese, he s ee ee zes
conSTRucTion coST incReaSeS and PoTenTiaLFoR coST oVeRRunS
d e he s s e -
e pe ps e b e e24 s s
s he e pbshe, se hese efe s-
es hee eee
s e es e es ee ths
s s e espe s-e, s,
ps; hee hese ses he e
s es ess the be ese h
beee 2000 2008, p ss -e
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8/283lockEd-in Se 1: wh c is de m w deepe c Ee mes
pe-p s h be, h p-
seep pe hes 2005-2008
B 2008 ee ss e ps he uS
h ehe $3,500/w (bee ss e
e), p s e s $1,500/w $1,800/w
200525 a he se e, e ss 13
ee es ( s-
), s pbshe b he ie Ee ae
2010, ee eeee $2,500/w26 Bh he
e he uS es sh h he
ss s e hh be, h epe
eees e h 50 pee s es
F epe uS hs p s $1,355/w
b s hs h s $5,350/w
ths e ep s sees s -
ese ess e ee csss s pe e be e
p, hh he se S Pv ee pes
e s e s e ge he e -
ee jees e ee e , e
s spe e see es hep
e ee es epese
i , eee e s es he bee
epe be pjes hs pe
s pes es se s pe
ps (e, see, ppe) se Fe 427
ses he s e e ppe -
he 1992-2012 e e F e e se pe
ps e t m i (ssse be) e-
ee s s eses ($1000/w)
se sbs es b he pe se pe pbes
a he se e ss he se se, espe
pb pps e -e pe ps hs
, sppe b zes ee -
zs h he ee hee eh pps
e -e p he uS whe pb pp-
s e -e ee se he hh
pb heh, ee e hes pse
b e -e ps, ebes he pb s
ppse hese ps he bss he sbs
e eses he pjes se o he 441 e
1992
M02
1994
M02
1996
M02
1998
M02
2000
M02
2002
M02
2004
M02
2006
M02
2008
M02
2010
M02
2012
M02
$12,000
$10,000
0
$4,000
$2,000
$6,000
$8,000
COPPER PRICES 1992 2012
USD/mt
FIGuRE 4: Goba Copper Price Tren 1992-2012
PCCI without Nuclear
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Q1 2011
219
180
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Cost
Idex
(2000=100)
FIGuRE 1: IHS CERA Coa Pant Capita Costs North Aerica
COST OvERRuNS fORCEPlANT ClOSuRES
i nebe 2009, ae mp Pe
e h he pjee ss s p-
pse oh p h jpe 37 pee se
he pee m as es, he p
e he pjes pe es
e s eee s p (amP
2009)28
Peb e h he s
s s Pe Se p is h
ese $44 b, e h be he
eses (Hhe 2010)
i J 2012, he pe he ee
pee Sp S p nh
d e h pee
he p, b e e
s sses he pe29 the
pe e se-h-epee h ee e, e pes pe
ses he , he ss e s-
se se he ps se s
s e s es i he bsee
se e he ee he
p, he pe hepe se
he p e eeps, ee hh
s ep bhes he ese
ss he he p s se
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9/284lockEd-in Se 1: wh c is de m w deepe c Ee mes
ee pjes h he e e he ue
Ses 2011 hs 2012, 6 pjes, ep-
ese 3,372 mw p (16 pee he
e e p 20,776 mw) e -e
these s e e h se b he 24,700
mw ps h he bee spe ee s
e he s -e p-
e b he nEtl30 the nEtl ep
shs pe p hee s e s ees
e 2014, e pjes, he h b
pe seqes es pjes, ee
epe he pe e 2018
as es, he she uS pe ee h
es hs e hs s
the b -e ee he uS
ppe 34 pee mh 2012, he -
es h she se J 197331 whe uS
ee ee s 7 pee deebe
2011 pe deebe 2010, s-e
ee ese b 12 pee d hs pe
-e ee ee b 21 pee ths hs
e ee ee, pe, s
pe e she s he pe ees hs
p ppe
1 99 7 1 99 8 1 99 9 2 00 0 2 00 1 2 00 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 04 2 00 5 2 0 06 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 01 1
1,150
1,100
800
950
900
850
1,000
1,050
U.S. COAL USE FOR GENERATING ELECTRICITY
(MILLIONS OF TONS)
FIGuRE 5: u.S. Coa Consption or Eectricity Generation32
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10/285lockEd-in Se 2: the rs cs ie te c a Ee ocEc?
newcaSTLe,
new SouTh waLeS,
auSTRaLia
The RiSing coST oF inTeRnaTionaLLy
TRaded coaL an eMeRging ocec?
whe e b he ue Ses Epe hs
e ees s pesse pb pps,
e b hh he eep , p-
as hs se n hee,
s s ss, hs se he pe
se s hee he b hese
pjes ths pe se s e e p he e
e beee pes b -
es, epe be B e se pe
ess, s be he es h bes be
esbe s ee oz c Ep-
ces ocEc; e se pes be
e e es b e e
hh pes l he b es pss
he ese e ss, ocEc he e es
e e es ps h e s-
pesse p s, e e s
epse ps, p hse pe as
Se h 2002-2003 e e se
pes, p ps e shppe ses, he se e e p
he se e beee pes the pe
he pe se e e-
es e se b Fe 2, be, hh
ses he h pes ee he mh,
2012 w B c Pe d rep (P
Shee)33 (wB P Shee )
ths e s ee see es
s the s s h sp ss (e
ese e ss) e ebee he s
p , se ses,
epese j he eee pe F
as (he s es epe), he
s sp b he -
es he ep p es $8/
$15/ theee, e sp he p
s p $50/, e b he
sp he ee 34 the se -
s h p se pe s e
SHORT TERm PRICEfluCTuATIONS
as se b Fe 3, pes epeee
eee sh e pe eses eeses
he ps ee, s s $200/
bee ee $60/ he b
he $100/ e i he ps hee
es, e e se
pes he e be he sh e pes
he p ee Sh sh-e s
e be epee s hese e
es esp fs e
e s ths ppe ses,
he sh-e f he e, b
he -e e h s ee he 40 e
e epe e -e ps the -
e he e sh e
es pes, e be he ees p
ees ree eses he hh s
eep e es e ees sh
s Sh a as, iess
ese p ses h hee s es
beee h he -e e s
es pes be eese he -
ees
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121
Austr alian Coal U.S. Oil
U.S.
Dollars
240
200
0
40
80
120
160
AUSTRALIAN COAL ($/mt)
v,OIL ($/BBL)
20022012
FIGuRE 2: Benchark Astraian Coa Prices s. Cre Oi Prices 2002-2012
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11/286lockEd-in Se 2: the rs cs ie te c a Ee ocEc?
ee he hs bee ee pes s
pe bh be see he ees
f as Fe 6 eses, hs ee
ese ee sbe s ees
pes es
Hee, s sh Fe 3, s e h he -
e he 1980s 1990s hs eese Se
2002, as pes he se sbs, s
he pes he he e epes36
a be ess hs sh e pssbe Fs
pes / ees be ee
h he ese s e h he sh ep
he pssbe ss e she hh
e pe Se, p ss be es-
s he eses ( hepes) ses he
e e e e epese
epss s pes ls, s be-
se ess p e, he e
be s ps p e
e e, hee he j pes se -
e pes he se pes (h e
he e oPEc ps he b e)
ce eee he se pe e37
e e p s e h he i-
es ees 2011 es e he ses
pe ies e ses pes
Sh a as38 ths s peee b
he as sse ee p es-
e s ee ps
30 pee e 39 these ess
ee se he b e e hs hh pes h e eee $100/
s
ohe h he p eepe e e
s e s i
ch (ssse be) hee e bs s
h ses h e $30/ pes
s pbbe i s beee h, h
esbshe pe- pes e e
se , he j ep es ee ,
be e , e he -e s ps -
s he ps, espe e he e ee s
he e ees he e eess
iee, he e s se p
epee es, s pe $150/ FoB
nese ps $40/ shpp ss es ppe
be es he e e es F es
-e pe p h -e ee,41 sh
pe ses $7662/mwh $0077/wh
e ss e F e -e pe p h
pe ee,42 he e ss be ee
$68/mwh, b he e eb eq ss s-
se h e s ( 35 4 uS
es/wh s ese ss) ese
he e hese s ee pe b
hs be $100/mwh ($010/wh) these
pes e ee psbe sbs hhe
h se he e eee -e pes
e -e ee ee ss
ths pses ees s be as
es h he ee s e
bes e s ps h e
s ee pe sppes i i, epe, 30 pee he se 700 gw ppee
pjes s se s s e -
e pe these e s ps
h bee pese hep e sppes
n hee, he es s s he b -
be sppes e he e he p
i s p e h bse b
sppes hees he e 70 pee he
ppee i c i le (cil), he se
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241
100
80
0
20
40
60
U.S.
Dollars
y=-0.041x+39.774
R2=0.1848
TREND LINE
MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN PRICESFEBRUARY 19822002
FOB NEWCASTLE (USD/mt)
FIGuRE 6: monthy Astraian Coa Prices1982-200235
y=0.8804x+20.881
R2=0.6635
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 1 45 157 169 181 193 205 217 2 29 241
U.S.
Dollars
250
200
0
50
100
150
TREND LINE
MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES
FEBRUARY 20022012
FOB NEWCASTLE (USD/mt)
FIGuRE 2: Benchmark Australian Coal Prices vs. Crude Oil Prices 2002-201240
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12/287lockEd-in Se 2: the rs cs ie te c a Ee ocEc?
e p pes he s j
es pe ps i ee es hs
bee be ese p ee he -
e he , e ese ees
ps i Feb 2012 he se se
ee he pe s eqes e-
e eeze he ppee pjes bese he
s es e s be ese eqe
spp heee he heh he pje ppee
as ee e cil e s ese
eeze, he resee B i (rBi) e s b
ses bs eeze es e hs s-
esse se the e e hs s
ss h sse es e
p s he espe p
he i b se e hh epse43
these ses s e e sb-
s ese he s es i
aSian iMPoRT deMand ThReaTening PLanT
econoMicS
whe e pe s s es, e se
pe es s be ee he as
es h he he s p he e
e ch i s e he
phs pes F pes eese hee,
h eqe s e p
e, s e he ess
e be
o he e se, he e e s
e eee b s es se ch
whe ch hs hs bee e epe, epeee sh 2009 be he
s es pe, bese ee espe hh
e pes he e, pe s s
ess epese h es sppes47 theee,
chese p e se heeb ee
e e pes, es pes s
RISING COAl PRICES IN THE uNITEd STATES
as Fe 7 shs, he ee e, uS -
es pe es sh he se ee
es pe pe s e se
es F see ees pes ee ee-
sbe s e i 2003, hs pe
eese pes be b p as
h e se pes, e p
hs ese s he ebee s sse
h sp ese ee s-
s he she ese ps he uS
unlke chn nd ind, he uS hs experened
rpd developen o low-os nonvenonlnrl gs spples h hs led o sbsnlly
lower wholesle elery pres nd grely
reded dend or ol insed o hs o-
peon sppressng ol pres, uS ol pres
actually rose44 hrogho he perod45 moreover,
he uS Energy inoron adnsron (Eia)
reenly revsed s projeon or re uS ol
pres ro f o nresng aordng o
he Eia, he pwrd rend o ol pres prr-
ly refes n expeon h os svngs ro
ehnologl proveens n ol nng wll
be oweghed by nreses n prodon oss
ssoed wh ovng no reserves h re
ore osly o ne46 ths, ppers h ol
pres n he uned Ses re nlkely o derese
n wys h wold spr ddonl generon o
elery ro ol
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
U.S. COAL PRICES
19822010 ANNUAL AVERAGE
FOB MINE MOUTH (chained 2005 dollars)
40
35
0
20
15
10
5
25
30
U.S.
Dollars
FIGuRE 7: u.S. Coa Prices 1982-2010
Indonesia will not change its stance for
Tata Power or any other company...In fact
all the three countries exporting coal have
changed rules in recent times. South Africa,
Australia, and Indonesia are in sync as far
as coal exporting is concerned.
cEo, t Pe
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
13/288lockEd-in Se 2: the rs cs ie te c a Ee ocEc?
eese Hee s ese Fe 8, he
e se es es pes
epeee esehee he s s e p-
pe chese es pes
Pes he se see ess Fs es
es p ch hs ep pe
h he e s he hs ebe
bs p se he s i ,
p hs ep pe espe sebe
ss spe e ep es ee
e j e s48 n es he bee e-
ese s he e s eepe p-
b h chs eses e s
j pp ees s, e s
e sbs sp sswhe s ese es p
he e, he h ch ps
s ee e b he h q
es spp ab s e b s-
p ss es p sses49
ge he p eses es pes h
ch, he e h e, he -
e s spp hes eess he es-
s eee se p e,
sees e h ch e s ee ps-
s s e epe 50 ths s
s sess h as es hh e-
pes e
whe Sh ke Jp e s e, b e-
e sbe, ses pe , he he s
se h he pe b e
e, heee pes, s i i s
ch, i s e p e -e
s pbes sse h es p-
sp se h he -
, hh hs e es sppes Bese he
se es spp, e sss
p, p 30 pee is e -e
ee p s se s es s
s he ess pe se 51 as es,i ps e b 36 pee beee 2007
2009, eh 115 pee sp
200952 m pe h ps e h
be b 2013 eh 140 s h he
se s chese e pe se
200953
i ppes hh e h he e e es i-
s be be ese he ees- -
es h he hs h ep es
p mee, ss e s s s
e es he es, p ss
ese, hh sbsze pes e sbjee
p pesses see hz h pe-
e pes54 the e es hese es
hs bee ee eee bh es
p es he pe es 55
the s e e -e ee i
ppe e ps
he p beee es
e e pes se ths
ee he s j s-ps pe he
e spp h
ue, he e ese es
pes i ch s sse h he e
es pes s es he
56 thee s ppes be s es
beee h pes ee h e ees
h ,57 espe s he e e
pes e eses as es, se -
ss he e h as es p
e es sbje ee pe e
b s e hh pesEe he ie Ee ae, hs
see z, pjes s-
pes e se 58
53
Single Track
Source: Yang et al. (2009), Wang and Pan (2009) and Energy Research Institute.
Dual Track Pricing Market Pricing
57 65 75 80 82 84 85 86 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
500
400
0
100
200
300
Pr
ice
(yuan/ton)
AVERAGE MINE MOUTH SALES PRICE
FIGuRE 8: Aerage mineoth Price o Coa Proce in China
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
14/289lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss
TaTa MundRa:
a caSe STudy in coaL PRice RiSkS
MundRa,
gujaRaT,
india
ge he p h es s e-
e e, epse he ss e be he
bee es e nhee s he e
p hs s epse e e ese
h he t m -e pe pje gj-
, i the t m pe p s e sees
e 4,000 mw u me pe ps (umPP)
be pe s ss i i s s
e epe he e ss eep-
es e -e ps as he pe
e h be he e he p b
he pje, he he eee e t Pe hs
ee he pje e be e
s pes59
the t m pee pess be 2006
h pee e bs se b he
i ee s, pee e
25 e pe es the bs sbe e
2236 rs/wh ($0044/wh) 3746 rs/wh
($0074/wh), efe s ee es-s he e s -e ee60 the
es b, sbe b cs gj Pe l,
sbs t Pe cp, l (t Pe),
s seee the he pje s se
2007 shee pe 2012 the s
s bh e Feb 2012 a se
s epee e e he 2012
he e hee s 2013
t Pe hs 30 pee eq se he pje;
he be he s pe b s
ee e bs, $450 ie-
Fe cp (iFc) , $450
as deepe B , rpee s p-
e b es bs whe he pb s (iFc
adB) e p he e eb, pje
spss ssee h he w B pp
p s b -e s
he ees the pje ppes sse h h-
he eb sse hese ees pe
he pje, he bee e
epese see he pje
the s s he pje s
e , b ppes h t Pe he
eese he pje ss t Pes b
s pese s s sh e
h $1 /mw ($42 b 4000 mw p),
ess h he s s ps, sbs
ess h epes bs he spe-
ps i Se 2005, p ss -
e pe ps he ese b ppe 15
pee i , se he e he s
se, he e he pee hs e se as
he hs ppe he pee hs ee 20 pe-
e s he 18 pee s he e
a he pe ees pje
ss e he sbs ss sse h he p
se e e pes Se
pes he ese b $60/ se t Pe
sbe s e pe b e es F ee
$28/ se he s , hese ee
ss ese b ppe $001/h Hee,t Pe pss hese ese
ss s ses e he e s
e ess e i t Pe
s e h he i ee eese
s se he p 40
pee be s b e es
t Pes eqes es espse e-
pe b ies hes e 2010 h
esbshes beh pe ep ses
he es ths eee be
he pe epe ies, e
hee he e e hh he t
Pe pje s bse t Pes b s bse
e () ss $001290 sp-
ss $000384 hh ee se ese e
e he e 25 es, s h b he e
he he e s be $001308/wh
sp ss be $00047 ce-
hese pes ss pe bse he
ppse he ee he p pbshe
e he e e
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
15/2810lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss
e se 61 ees h t Pes b -
pe 2012 pe $3686/ h se
e 25 es $3737/; he shpp ss s
$1097/ se $1143/ ths, t Pes
pe62b s $15/ ess h he pe sp e
pe as (FoB) he e s b,
$25/ ess h pbshe pes he e
$7421/ ess h he s ee pb-
she ies beh pe $11158/63 ths,ee bee s he pje s pee,
pes e pe hse e b t Pe
s b
ths ppe ep pe h e-
pes be 2017 Hee, he
e-e e as pes es s
hs, pp he eq he e e Fe 3 es FoB pe $179/; $68/
ee h mh 2012, hh
he $0024/wh he e ss eee
hese pe $0086, h be he s
ee he t m pje s
be pe i he e ss ese e he
e e es he se e he he se 2007,
he ese be sh e $7421/
$026/wh, hese pe 88 es pe wh
ue ehe e, he eee e e
be ss eee $010/wh he e
see eh es
i sh be e h hs sss s e
eses sse h he pe es es
efe he he ses eee p
he e sss e ss s e s he
ss sss sb64 the pe
qe he ese p s he pje
eses he s h se p e t Pe
see eses es esee s e-
s a he e t Pes b pes t
Pe, cErc, he iFc, adB, he e bs
e sh he h, js s $1 pe
se s h he ps, s ee he ,
sbe pes he 1970s 1980s nes -
es h bee pbshe e he
pe eses h e 200565 the pbshe
pes e se e
ese hs ese
whe see h he he-be -
, s es h hse ee
t Pes b ep he h
sp ss be epee e
sh ees 25 es i s s sps h
i, h s s e-
se s, sh he bee h s pe-
pe b he es he ies ee
he he p es e ess i
h ee se h he s E dbh pj-
e; hs bee qe e espse ss66
s c i h is es s
be pe is eess, hse
e ess See s, hh sh he
1997
MO6
1999
MO6
2001
MO6
2003
MO6
2005
MO6
2007
MO6
U.S
.Dollars
80
70
60
50
0
30
20
10
40
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES
JUNE 1997JUNE 2007
FIGuRE 11: Astraian fOB Coa Prices Jne 1997Jne 2007
TATA MUNDRA
COAL PRICE
U.S.
Dolla
rsperton
120
100
0
40
20
60
80
2011 Indonesian
Coal Prices
International Prices
at Time of Bid
Tata Bid
Fuel Costs
FIGuRE 9: Tata mnra Eectricity Price Ipact fro Rising Coa Prices
5 Year
Projected Price
8 Year
Projected Price
Current Price Adjusted
for Coal Price Revisions
Tata Bid
Power Price
TATA MUNDRA WHOLESALE LCOE
10
9
8
7
6
0
2
1
4
3
5
U.S.
Cents/kwh
FIGuRE 10: Tata mnra Eectricity Price (lCOE) Projections
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
16/2811lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss
bee e se he ab eb, s pee
ee e e es, e -
essbe , se he h e
ees
the e qes s he, hehe, t
Pe he umPP eepes see e
ese, ppes h e hh s e
he p he i e b
p ee pes i pes he
ese see bs s h h he bee
e se spe ee ses ee h
e es eses he s he pjes bee
see these pe pes he pee,
s pee, s see hs
mw -e ee p hh c i-
pe se these s ehe
sbs ess h p he
ee e p epese se
as hs , he se ee gj hs
ejee t Pes eqes eses, e-
ee ee he sse ee hes,
he i appee tb Ee e h
s se p, a Pe, s b
b he es he pe phse eee h
se67 these ess se he pspe h he
pes e bs s s
hhh he Hbss he h e ps
ssps e he s -e ee-
ee o e h, he pje pes e,
he b he eepes pe (eebes) b he pjes
be pse he ps pee
es s sses e esse b bp s ye,
e hes ep he pese h -
s be ese he bss he ese e
ss, he ees eshp hese epe-
e pe pes be ee ee ue
hs e e-ee ee, e pe h
he pes see e eses
e eses he s see -
eees s s es bse fs he e ehe e
as i hes ee he eqess t m
hes ese s ese s68 he
sh ee spe ee he umPP
pee pess eee hehe he s-
ess bs ee e h hehe he
ee b bs h he eepes sse
be ese p e e ths ee sh be
bse p ee es he
h epeses eese pes, sh
es sh be be pb ee the
ees he pes pe ee sh
be e eee, he s
ss he s e e hse be
e pe; he ss s
eh he s ( he pees sse h
e he ); he sss he
se epees; e ees i -
THE PuBlIC HEAlTH CRImE OfuNCONTROllEd COAl-fIREdPOwER PlANTS
a s ses p,
e pses ee ss h heh he
ee h -e pe ps Es-
ss -e pe ps be
b , ze s, , e
hze, pehps s seqe
pb heh sp e pe p-
74
i he ue Ses, ses ese h e
pe p es ps ses
13,200 ehs, ese 9,700 hspz-
s, e h 20,000 he s pe
e the eze e hese ese
heh ps s p e h $100 b
pe e i , s e he zeses se h e e pe ps, s
e s hse h e es -
pe pe ps, h e e be spp-
e epse he heh ss ss
e pe p
the eh ee
hese ps ess b s e ee
e pe p ppss ze ss
he eepe thee e ppss
es ees e -e pe ps
es e i h e p -
eh s p
s e, b e, e
pe e, e ps
hh e ze , e, se,
e, , see he he es
wse, es e i e e
ses e e ps h
e h es b
s pps
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
17/2812lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss
, he ees sppes
eh he pees sh be e eee
h peee he ese ss
pes hh he pees he ees
exPenSiVe PoweR oR no PoweR?
a e i s, i s hse
beee epese pe e pe Hee,
hs s he he 2007 s he
he the i P css hs
pes se h [s]ee [ee-ee] p-
s e ess epese h s-bse ee-
, heee, should be the frst resource consid-
ered or ulflling demand.69 i mh 2012 he i
ee pse 6 pee ee ee
pee eqee 400 he es s-
ses pe, be p b $200/e e
pes h hee hs b70 H
he ee eze he e s ee-
e -e ee 2007, ehe pe sh p h e h
be ebe h h ee
s e ee-ee ps
Sh ps eqe ese h s-
es be be , b p he-
sees e pe e es es ee
ss
a, sbs p he bs -
s ese e es -e
pe ps he bee spe e is
sebe sss sb sses F-
he, h i s see he s
e -e ee 2007, he he e
eepe is sbs eebe ee
eses h hhe p
ths pp s s ees e h i
s b s es be e ee
eses ree ess s ee
pe he ese se p es-
es 45 gw h 100 gw71 a he se
e see pes es he s phse
he s ss he bee h h ee
pjee be he hepe se se
p ee 17 mw e 506 mw js
es72 i , eses e h s e
epe 30 pee is ps73
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
18/2813lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss
KOSOvO THE NExT wORld BANK COAl BOONdOGGlE?
ks s e he pes s Epe
he hs sbs e epss, be
hpe pe eses, he
hs s esees e
ppee e p
s kss ee ees e s ee e
b e-e ps, ks a (h
p 450 mw) ks B (h
p 600 mw), se ps ee-
t he s ks a he bee se
es he p s bh ps e
sbs nehe p hs bee e e
pee the ks a p hs bee ee
s he s p p Epe he -
ee hs pee se b 2016 ese
Eu ps b he ps esss
the w B hs e ss pps ee ks B75 s
e 600 mw e p ( s ks c)
ths ss epe bsee s s
eses h h bee ese s pe
s ese he e s e
p i s eese he e s e
e e h s be ee ee he
ees he e p ms p, he w
B ss ee eee heh-
e he e p ess kss ees
be be
a ee kss ee pes b he
Se cb he ks ise deepe
P76 e h he ks B p e h
se p ee kss bse ees
h ess he e e (37 pee)
eh e sses ee hhe p-
h pe se p
e e h e s the
Se cb ee eee h pe
(ses) e s s p
he e ee e ks h he
w B pps ee hese ees
ip hs ee eee he w B h
ee eee he ese h
be eqe spp he ses -
s he e ks c p, ebshe
ks B, eepe he e e
h ee see hehe he epes
he s hese eses, hh be
hee es eses e eess
b s
i espse he Se cb ee, he w B
be he ese he s s
he e p ee he ee (pes-
b be esse b hes) (ses) pe p, pees
he sss sse, he eep-
e he eebe eses, b e
h h he s
ks c the ks Ee cp, pe-
he ks ps hs ee ee
s eee h he sses se he
Se cb ee77, he ee pe
p sss sse pes the
es he ks p be
se e, b ppes h, he e be,kss h be e p bse
p h he ee
Hee, he hs he pps e-
ses he e e e pb ee
e ps ps e -e
ee
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
19/2814lockEd-in Se 4: the Pe ip n gs Pes c-Fe gee Ee
The PoTenTiaL iMPacT oF
naTuRaL gaS PRiceS on coaL-FiRed
geneRaTion oF eLecTRiciTy
a h be s e-
b pes, s bs
s pjes e t m, be he
se p p e e esees
e s n s e he
sbses, hh ee pee ee
h e pes he s sppes
ehe e bh p i he ue Ses
p s e -
s hs 1 pee 1990 2378 pe-
e uS s sp 201079 l
eepe ss e esse he
e s sppes as seqee,
s pes he epe pes he
uS e He Hb80 s pe ess
h $2050/mmB sse pes he e
sp 2012 Fe 12 ses Epe uS
hese sp s pes hs pe
Hee, he he ese spp -s81
e s hs ee heseee pes he uS hs e s
h he ese ee ee-
ise, he hs ee hs s-
pe -e ee hs ese e
pes bese he ss p e
p e b he pe ebee ese e
sp , he ese ess
epe esees, e see b bh sp-
es (s p) see epes
a, hee s es beee h e e
se p e s ee s-
pesse e pes
Hee, he p ez e
s he ue Ses e
b he es he gs be e
epss e eh e be
she es86 assse b he ue Ses,87 ep-
e eepe es e e
be es ce ses ses
s pe ch, b ee pe
i, Jp, ke, ve, Besh, Ps,
he Phppes, he j ee ses
mee, se e ses ee, sh s
Jp, ep sbs qes qee
s, hse p s s e b pes h
e e p88
i sh be e h e e s
ep eepe s s e e
e se See hs be s es e
ee h s e eses e
e eepbe the s es P,
hh he he es esees Epe,
e e eepbe s, ee
eses eebe esees P h ee
e e ee ee 53 b
ees () beee 035 077 89 d2002MO2
2004
MO2
2006
MO2
2008
MO2
2010
MO2
2012
MO2
European U.S.
20
18
16
14
0
4
2
10
8
6
12
U.S.
Dollars/MMBtu
U.S. AND EUROPEAN GAS PRICES
2002 2012
FIGuRE 12: u.S. an Eropean Natra Gas Prices 2002-2012
FIGuRE 13: worie unconentiona Gas Resorces
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
20/2815lockEd-in Se 4: the Pe ip n gs Pes c-Fe gee Ee
ss he bee sbs hhe P h
he uS he e hs pe be
he peee a E mbs cEo
[]e ehs s ee be ee p
se s Epe ch es
pe espse ehqes h e
he uS90
wh he eee esee h e s
h sh eepes, i eepes epe
e esee e s
he dp bs 2011 , pe hs se
ese s he pe se he s e-
e es91 Hee, hs sse s bse he
ess se e i es pe es-
e s p hs es
he e hs ee pee h c
Phps eh es h bes
eep s eses92 the e hs peshp,
b e es, h
e hs se,93 ees h i
s s e e he pess ee hehe
h s s e s eses
be eepe
S, ch s e e se he eep-
e s e s eses se
s s p h She o mh
2012 Hee, ch ppes be
eep s e s eses e
esse e appe 20 pps es he
bee pee be ee eepe
bs; e f es he bee hee
be hese es94 the chese ee ps
ENvIRONmENTAl CONCERNS ASSOCIATEd wITH dEvElOPmENT Of
uNCONvENTIONAl NATuRAl GASahh ee ee s s
eees 40 50 pee ess co2
h -e
ee, epe ee p ee,
ese esss he s p-
pess se hs bee82 n s ss-
es, espe e s
p, pe e s ehe,
eee pe eehse s ree ses
ses h ehe e es be 3 pee
p se e e
h he bs ee eee hese
pes,83 h es e pese ee e-
e e-e s p es he
ue Ses84 ce e s s e-
s h hese --s sh es
ee esss eh b b
epee eses es hse es-
ss h se ees85 n s bs
es he he bees e , hee, s
eees e esss e p-
s, sh s So2 no, hzs p-
s, sh s e
Hee, s h he sp
, s p sss s s-
se h s ee ps,
e s p, hh
e e e s sppes, hs p
hh ee ss n s p
sss eees e s p-
, es e ps,
hh s se e Sbs
qess he s bee se b he -
e b he hes epe
he pess b ehe he
ses esp es ippe ee
fb pe e e
hese es, hh s ee hh e,
s se s e p, s
see - he s e ses
eee p sss ces
e s es be se b e
ehqes se b je es se
se sps, b he j sp
es spes, e, es hh
e sse h he she s b
these sses he bee se b sess
ee zs he e see
jss he uS esehee b he
pess se eep e
s the uS EPa hs sse ses
ee e es Hee, heqes hehe e s
, , be eepe ee
s e s s e see ue
s eepe s ssse hs ppe,
s esee he eh s -
e epe, b bese be ee
he qes hehe -e ee be
e epese e e
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
21/2816lockEd-in Se 4: the Pe ip n gs Pes c-Fe gee Ee
200 es b 2013 hs se p es
65 Bcm/ b 2015 p 100 Bcm/ b 2020
h eq chs 2010 sp
s95
the ee chese eepe s e-
s eses e pes be
e h he e h chese
ee e hehe he chese ee
s es s bse
ee p s s sse ese
e he ps e es -e pe ps Se
chese es pes epe e
e ss, he e s s
sppes sp spe ee (s he
uS) ee pes sp ese
ee ue, ch e
be ps pe pesse e-
es
-
7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
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-Study-Solar-Grid-Parity-Is-Here-Today/http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/New-Study-Solar-Grid-Parity-Is-Here-Today/http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/New-Study-Solar-Grid-Parity-Is-Here-Today/http://www.awea.org/learnabout/publications/upload/AmericanWindpowerBrochure.pdfhttp://www.awea.org/learnabout/publications/upload/AmericanWindpowerBrochure.pdfhttp://www.cmnow.org/NETLpercent20Newpercent20Coalpercent205.2007.pdfhttp://www.cmnow.org/NETLpercent20Newpercent20Coalpercent205.2007.pdfhttp://www.startribune.com/business/134647533.htmlhttp://www.startribune.com/business/134647533.htmlhttp://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/statistics/doc/2011-2009-country-factsheets.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/statistics/doc/2011-2009-country-factsheets.pdfhttp://205.254.135.7/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6550http://205.254.135.7/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6550http://www.bnef.com/WhitePapers/download/82http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/02/solar-pv-becoming-cheaper-than-gas-in-californiahttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/02/solar-pv-becoming-cheaper-than-gas-in-californiahttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/02/solar-pv-becoming-cheaper-than-gas-in-californiahttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html 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45 t Ee U.S Energy Inormation Administration. 19 o
2011 web
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web
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Sss ass2011 Brie: Wholesale Electricity Prices
Mostly Lower in 2011. web
46 uS Ee i as Eia iepee
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47 mse, rh the ws gees c abe: chs
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49 xh ie m reps rse c resees
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52 iEa c Sss, 2010
53 d, rj uPdatE 1-i 2012/13 c ip nees
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54 the ches iese F wes Be h c iNew York Times. abe hp://b/JFxk
55 Sh, Shee P ne c r F H cpe
mes Business Standard. 26 ap 2012 web
56 Se c Pes Ee gee Energy
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57 See, Hsh, rbe l, re H Beze, rbe m
we Peaking o World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation
and Risk Management. ne y: n, 2005
58 rpe, i, yx Zh c o CLSA 18
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65 n i c Pe dp 2005 The China Daily.
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72 l he F Bh Fe NRDC: 4 m 2012
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FinancialPost 25 ap 2012 web
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7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper
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