043-11-walter gordon symposium presentation

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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.

Power and Knowledge:Shifting Public Perspectives

By Frank Graves

2011 Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy

Toronto, Ontario

March 23, 2011


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Outline

1.0 The Priority of Knowledge and Expertise

2.0 Knowledge Underrepresented and Undervalued

3.0 Faith and Reason

4.0 Limits to Knowledge and Understanding

5.0 The Future and Conclusions


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1.0 The Priority of Knowledge andExpertise

Knowledge is important

Linked to social class, age, and gender

Strongly linked to political ideology and vote intention


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51

8

2

1920

0

20

40

60

80

100

Knowledge and

understanding

Decency and

morality

Decisiveness and

certainty

Compassion and

empathy

DK/NR

Most important trait in a national leader

Q. Whichof the fo

owingtraitswou

d you most

ike tosee ina nationalleader?

BASE:Canadians; March15-17, 2011 (n=984)


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3%

29%

34%24%

9%

H rd e idence o need/imp cts

F irness nd soci l justice

A ord bility nd costs

Imp cts on soci l lues/mor lity

/N

Most important factor in national decision making

Q. Inmakingimportantnationaldecisions, whichofthe followingfactorsdoyouthinkshould e mostimportant?



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8

10

16

21

28

32

57

74

0 20 0 0 0 100

University professors

Journa ists

Priests

B oggers

Scientists

Po sters

Trust in occupations

Q. Howmuchtrustdoyouhave ineachofthe followingoccupationalgroupsorindividuals?

Politicians

Unionleaders


%highlevel (5, , 7)

5.4

MEAN

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.9

3.9

4.8

3.0


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2.0 Knowledge Underrepresentedand Undervalued

Broad belief that populism is the dominant political

mode

Equally strong belief it should not be; knowledge

should rule


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37

46

17

020406080100

12

28

60

0 20 40 60 80 100

Is driven by Should be driven by

Inte ectua ism and rationade ate

Popu ism and commonsense

D /NR

BASE:Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)

Intellectualism versus populism in politics

Q. Doyouthinkthatcontemporarypoliticsis/should e driven yintellectualismandrationalde ate or ypopulismandcommonsense?


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75

62

45

55

34

14

11

26

39

42

54

48

46

52

0 20 0 0 0 100

e

hou d h e

Medi /Journ ists

The Prime Minister

Pu ic er nts

er ge Citizens

Lo yists

P r i ment ri ns

Power gap: who has/who should have power

Q. Whichofthe followinggroupshave/shouldhave the mostinfluence indefiningpublicpoliciesinCanada?*

Experts/Professionals


*Presentedinseriesofrandompairedchoices. Percentindicates

average numberoftimesoptionisselectedoverallothers.

-41

GAP

+49

+23

+3

+1

-14

-32


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3.0 Faith and Reason

Chief contest is between certainty/morality and

evidence/reason

Certainty and morality are strongly linked to

conservatism and religiosity

Links to gender and ethnicity (as well as social class)


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42

51

74

0 20 40 60 80 100

8

58

19

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Breakdown by ideology

Left

Centre

Right


Humans were createdby God within the ast

10,000 years

Humans evo ved overtime, but through

divine guidance

Humans evo vedthrough natura

se ection

D /NR

Base: Those who say humansevo ved through natura se ection

Origins of mankind

Q. Whichofthe followingstatementscomesclosesttoyourpointofview?


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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE:Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)

1419

58

8

40 38

16

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

Humans were created

by od in the last

10,000 years

Humans evolved over

time, but through

divine guidance

Humans evolved

through natural

selection

D /NR

OS (March 2011) allup (December 2010)*

Origins of mankind: Canada versus US

Q. Whichofthe followingstatementscomesclosesttoyourpointofview?

*Source: Gallup poll; December 10-12, 2010 (n=1,019). Question worded as follows:Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings:

1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of li fe, but God guided this process;2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of li fe, but God had no part in this process; or

3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so?


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50

6

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

15

71

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Breakdown by religiousservice attendance

Never

ccasiona y

requent y


A priest, rabbi, or otherre igious eader

A psychiatrist or otherprofessiona

D /NR

Base: Those who prefer a priest, rabbi,or other re igious eader

Preferred source of personal guidance

Q. Ifyouwere facingadeeppersonalcrisis,whichofthe followingindividualswouldyouprefertoconsult?


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4.0 Limits to Knowledge andUnderstanding

Lagged rebound effect on evidence and crime

1 in 4 Canadians are anti-science, anti-expertise

Broad but mixed concerns about impacts of

democracy and equality


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55

43

31

18

0 20 40 60 80 100

4

38

30

29

0 20 40 60 80 100

Breakdown by age

Under 25

25-44

44- 4

65 and over


Perceived changes in violent crime rates

Q. Overthe past10 years,wouldyousaythatthe crime rate inCanadahasbeen ... ?

Decreasing (1-3)

Staying the same (4)

Increasing (5-7)

D /NR

Base: Those whosayincreasing


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10

30

50

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Decreasing (1-3) Staying the same (4) Increasing (5-7)

Tracking perceived changes in violent crime rates

BASE:Canadians; most recent data point March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)

Q. Over the past 10 years, would yousay that the crime rate in Canada has been ... ?

38%

30%29%


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1

26

9

64

0 20 0 0 0 100

Neither agree nor disagree ( )

Agree (5-7)

D /NR

Disagree (1-3)

Attitudes towards climate change

Q. Towhatextenttoyouagree ordisagree withthe followingstatement: Idontbelieve allthistalkaboutgreenhousegasemissionscausingglobalclimate change.



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1

4

3

56

39

11

19

22

17

23

36

69

0% 2 % 0%

% 100%

D N Disagree (1- ) Neither agree nor disagree (4) Agree ( - )

Itreallybothersme thathardscientificevidence isntshapingpublicpolicytothe degree thatitshouldbe.

Iamworriedthatscience isgoingtoofarandishurtingsocietyratherthanhelpingit.

Iworrythatthe rule of expertsandprofessionalsproduceselitismandinequality.


Concerns over science and expertise

Q. Towhatextentdoyouagree ordisagree withthe followingstatements?


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5.0 The Future and Conclusions

The public strongly believes that intellectual-scientific

approaches will dominate in the future

Social media and Web 2.0 are pro-knowledge but

eschew traditional vertical authority (anti-gate

keeping)


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7

55

31

7

0 20 40 60 80 100

6

43

32

20

020406080100

Q. Overall,doyouthinkthatthe use ofhardevidence andprofessionalexpertise inpublicdecisionmakingis/willbemore orlessimportantthanitwas10 yearsago/10 years fromnow?

10 years ago 10 years from now

Lessimportant (1-3)

Aboutthe same (4)

More important (5-7)

D /NR

Perceived importance of hard evidence in decision making



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3

49

17

32

0 20 0 0 0 100

Neither agree nor disagree ( )

Agree (5-7)

D /NR

Disagree (1-3)

Use of social media in constructing knowledge and expertise

Q. Towhatextenttoyouagree ordisagree withthe followingstatement: Inaneraofsocialmediasuchas acebook,Twitter,andWikipedia,knowledge andexpertise canbe constructed fromordinarycitizens.



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Conclusions (i)

Hard knowledge is seen as hugely important principle for societal decision

making (trailing only democracy)

There is a strong sense that knowledge, science, and expertise are undervalued

Contested terrain revolves around relative salience of reason and knowledge

versus moralism and certainty

The fault lines are deep and these world views are relatively incompatible

The rational-empirical view is much more prevalent, particularly among younger,

more educated Canada

There is a dramatic left-right split and it is also strongly connected to secularismand religiosity


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Conclusions (ii)

The recent political success of populism is paradoxical and may reflect low

recognition and the weakness of the rational view to handle values

The challenge to reason and knowledge comes from the political right; it is

rooted in a search for certainty and morality and a discomfort with evidence and

ambiguity

Populism is viewed as an interruption, not a structural shift

Public conviction about the future

Demography forces favour educated

Lagged but rational rebound on crimes rates

Future complicated by the digital generation and the flattening of intellectual

authority


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FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Frank Graves, PresidentEKOS Research Associates

p. 613.235.7215

e. [email protected]

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