042009 climate change: third world vulnerability, first world accountability ros b de guzman

Climate Change: Climate Change: Third World Third World

vulnerability, First World vulnerability, First World accountabilityaccountability

IBON FoundationIBON FoundationNational Grassroots Conference on Climate National Grassroots Conference on Climate

ChangeChange20-21 April 200920-21 April 2009

ConclusionsConclusions► Industrialized countries, particularly their Industrialized countries, particularly their

transnational corporations (TNCs) and their transnational corporations (TNCs) and their anarchic system of production and unsustainable anarchic system of production and unsustainable pattern of consumption, are responsible for the pattern of consumption, are responsible for the global warming.global warming.

► Yet, backward, poor countries such as those of Asia Yet, backward, poor countries such as those of Asia and the Pacific are more vulnerable and less able to and the Pacific are more vulnerable and less able to adapt to changing climate.adapt to changing climate.

► While it is true that their vulnerability is due to their While it is true that their vulnerability is due to their geographic and climatological features, it is also geographic and climatological features, it is also because their economies and people’s control over because their economies and people’s control over critical resources have been trampled upon by critical resources have been trampled upon by globalization of TNC activities. globalization of TNC activities.

► Ironically still, the solutions and ‘assistance’ being Ironically still, the solutions and ‘assistance’ being forwarded by the industrialized countries, led by forwarded by the industrialized countries, led by multilateral organizations and international multilateral organizations and international financial institutions, are still within the moribund financial institutions, are still within the moribund capitalist system and still at the expense of the capitalist system and still at the expense of the peoples of the Third World.peoples of the Third World.

OutlineOutline► Accountability (global)Accountability (global)

the ‘Anthropocene Era’the ‘Anthropocene Era’ the culpritsthe culprits

► Climate projections (Asia/Pacific)Climate projections (Asia/Pacific) geographic and climatological featuresgeographic and climatological features climate trendsclimate trends climate hazardsclimate hazards grave consequencesgrave consequences

► Adaptive capacity (Asia/Pacific) Adaptive capacity (Asia/Pacific) definitiondefinition economy (including technology and infrastructure)economy (including technology and infrastructure) social vulnerabilitysocial vulnerability governancegovernance

► Overall vulnerability (Asia and Philippines)Overall vulnerability (Asia and Philippines)► Overall accountability (global and Asia/Pacific)Overall accountability (global and Asia/Pacific)

AccountabilityAccountability

►Anthropocene Era - Anthropocene Era - a period during which human activities have become a dominant force affecting not only the planet’s landscape, but also its atmosphere. Increases in GHG emissions since the

industrial evolution in the mid-18th century – carbon dioxide by 36%, methane by 17% and nitrous oxide by 151% – are directly linked to over two centuries of growth in the burning of fossil fuels by humans.

AccountabilityAccountability

►The culpritsThe culprits Is everyone accountable then?Is everyone accountable then? COCO22 accounts for 80% of GHG emissions, accounts for 80% of GHG emissions,

mainly due to mainly due to burning of coal and crude burning of coal and crude oiloil

The Northern part of the globe accounts The Northern part of the globe accounts for 90% of COfor 90% of CO22 accumulation accumulation

The US, EU, Japan and the rest of the G8 The US, EU, Japan and the rest of the G8 are responsible for 65% of historical are responsible for 65% of historical emissions.emissions.

Top 20 CO2 Emitters, 2003 (in ‘000 metric tons)

81,445Brazil 20

82,530Saudi Arabia19

83,121Poland18

84,401Spain17

85,836Ukraine16

96,657Australia15

99,415South Africa14

102,065France13

104,112Iran12

113,542Mexico11

121,608Italy10

124,455South Korea9

152,460United Kingdom8

154,392Canada7

219,776Germany6

336,142Japan5

347,577India4

407,593Russian Federation3

1,131,175China2

1,580,175United States1

CO2 emissionsCountryRank

•US cornered 25% of CO2 emissions in 2003.

• High concentrations in the atmosphere are also recorded in backward countries where TNC operations of industrialized countries are based.

• High concentrations in the atmosphere are also observed in underdeveloped countries whose economies are being transformed by TNCs to feed the energy demand and consumption needs of the industrialized countries.

GHG Emissions by Source, 2000

3Wastes

5Other Energy related activities

8Buildings

14Transport

14Industry

14Agriculture

18Deforestation

24Power

% SHARESOURCE• TNCs account for 50% of all

oil, gas and coal extraction and refining.

• Only 10 TNCs account for about 41% of world production of oil and gas.

• TNCs control 80% of land worldwide which is cultivated for cash crops.

• Only 20 TNCs account for about 90% of the sales of hazardous pesticides and other agricultural chemicals.

• TNCs dominate and control extractive industries that have irreversible effects on the environment, such as metal mining and energy extraction.

Climate ProjectionsClimate Projections

► Geographic and climatological Geographic and climatological featuresfeatures variability in temperaturesvariability in temperatures variability in seasonal precipitation variability in seasonal precipitation

(rainfall influenced by summer and (rainfall influenced by summer and winter monsoons)winter monsoons)

climate sub-regions (arid and semi-arid; climate sub-regions (arid and semi-arid; temperate; north tropical; south tropical) temperate; north tropical; south tropical)


► Climate trendsClimate trends warming (3°C in the 2050s; 5°C in the warming (3°C in the 2050s; 5°C in the

2080s)2080s) rainfall changes (7% in the 2050s; 11% rainfall changes (7% in the 2050s; 11%

in the 2080s)in the 2080s) sea-level rise (3-16 cm by 2030; 7-50 cm sea-level rise (3-16 cm by 2030; 7-50 cm

by 2070) by 2070) climate extremes and surprisesclimate extremes and surprises


► Climate extremes and surprisesClimate extremes and surprises wild fires in grasslands and rangelandswild fires in grasslands and rangelands mudslides, mudflows and avalanchesmudslides, mudflows and avalanches droughtsdroughts severe floodingsevere flooding tropical cyclonestropical cyclones forest firesforest fires heat waves, heavy downpours, torrential heat waves, heavy downpours, torrential

rainsrains


► Climate hazardsClimate hazards frequency of tropical cyclones, floods, frequency of tropical cyclones, floods,

landslides, droughts and sea-level riselandslides, droughts and sea-level rise human and ecological sensitivity human and ecological sensitivity

(population density, protected areas, (population density, protected areas, livelihood)livelihood)

► Human sensitivity of course is best Human sensitivity of course is best measured by how many people actually measured by how many people actually depend on the natural ecologies for their depend on the natural ecologies for their livelihood. livelihood. In Asia/Pacific, dependence on agriculture ranges In Asia/Pacific, dependence on agriculture ranges

from 15% (China) to 57% (Myanmar) of the gross from 15% (China) to 57% (Myanmar) of the gross domestic product. domestic product.

Around 60 to 80 percent of the population are Around 60 to 80 percent of the population are engaged in small-scale agriculture. engaged in small-scale agriculture.

Rural population ranges from 35% (Malaysia) to 81% Rural population ranges from 35% (Malaysia) to 81% (Cambodia). (Cambodia).

There are also high percentages of coastal There are also high percentages of coastal populations and forest people. populations and forest people.

Over half of Asia’s population resides in coastal Over half of Asia’s population resides in coastal locations and in low-lying islands. locations and in low-lying islands.

► The FAO estimates that over 90 percent of the 15 The FAO estimates that over 90 percent of the 15 million people working at coastal waters are small-million people working at coastal waters are small-scale fishers, excluding yet the tens of millions of scale fishers, excluding yet the tens of millions of the poor who fish inland rivers, lakes, ponds, and the poor who fish inland rivers, lakes, ponds, and even rice paddies. even rice paddies.

► The World Bank estimates that 90 percent of the The World Bank estimates that 90 percent of the world’s 1.1 billion poor (as approximated by the world’s 1.1 billion poor (as approximated by the World Bank) derive a portion of their income from World Bank) derive a portion of their income from forests while over 600 million keep livestock which forests while over 600 million keep livestock which is a critical cash asset for many. is a critical cash asset for many.

► According to the UN Hunger Task Force, half of the According to the UN Hunger Task Force, half of the world’s hungry are smallholders, a fifth do not have world’s hungry are smallholders, a fifth do not have their own land, a tenth are agro-pastoralists, their own land, a tenth are agro-pastoralists, fisherfolk and forest users, while only a fifth live in fisherfolk and forest users, while only a fifth live in urban areasurban areas


► Grave consequencesGrave consequences coastal inundation and erosioncoastal inundation and erosion loss of ecosystems and biodiversityloss of ecosystems and biodiversity disease and heat-related mortalitydisease and heat-related mortality water shortageswater shortages stress on agriculture and forestrystress on agriculture and forestry stress on aquaculture and fisherystress on aquaculture and fishery stress on the economystress on the economy stress on human securitystress on human security

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity

► DefinitionDefinition Specifically, Specifically, adaptationadaptation refers to actions, refers to actions,

policies, and measures that increase the policies, and measures that increase the copingcoping capacitycapacity and and resilienceresilience of of systems to climate variability and systems to climate variability and climate change. The extent to which climate change. The extent to which adaptation can be implemented to adaptation can be implemented to increase coping capacity and resilience increase coping capacity and resilience is referred to as is referred to as adaptive capacityadaptive capacity..


► DefinitionDefinition Variability in adaptive capacity is a Variability in adaptive capacity is a

function of different capabilities within function of different capabilities within nations and communities with respect to nations and communities with respect to financial resources, technology, financial resources, technology, expertise, and economic diversification expertise, and economic diversification that are often called upon to implement that are often called upon to implement adaptation actions. adaptation actions.


► DefinitionDefinition "It is not that the risk is unknown, not "It is not that the risk is unknown, not

that the methods for coping do not that the methods for coping do not exist…rather inability to cope is due to exist…rather inability to cope is due to lack of—or systematic alienation from—lack of—or systematic alienation from—resources needed to guard against these resources needed to guard against these events.” (Ribot, et. al. events.” (Ribot, et. al. Climate Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid TropicsVulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics))


► EconomyEconomy stagnant growth and severely exploited, stagnant growth and severely exploited,

degraded and depleted natural degraded and depleted natural resources and capital due to long-term resources and capital due to long-term colonization and globalization.colonization and globalization.

rapid economic growth propelled only by rapid economic growth propelled only by liberalizationliberalization

transition to market economytransition to market economy shrinking agriculture and industryshrinking agriculture and industry dependence on exportsdependence on exports


► EconomyEconomy problematic trade deficitsproblematic trade deficits increasing aid dependenceincreasing aid dependence increasing role of official development increasing role of official development

assistance (ODA)assistance (ODA) increasing debt burdenincreasing debt burden over-reliance on foreign direct over-reliance on foreign direct

investment (FDI)investment (FDI)


► EconomyEconomy declining revenue, increasing declining revenue, increasing

privatization of key industries and social privatization of key industries and social sectorssectors

speculation and financial instabilityspeculation and financial instability corruptioncorruption


► Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability high unemployment rateshigh unemployment rates low quality of available jobslow quality of available jobs forced and child laborforced and child labor bulk of labor force population is in the bulk of labor force population is in the

rural areasrural areas continued and increasing landlessnesscontinued and increasing landlessness high rural-to-urban and cross-border high rural-to-urban and cross-border

migrationmigration


► Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability no living wagesno living wages poverty incidence remains highpoverty incidence remains high hunger remains prevalenthunger remains prevalent widening and deepening income widening and deepening income

inequalityinequality majority of the poor are in the rural majority of the poor are in the rural

areasareas women as the most disadvantagedwomen as the most disadvantaged


► Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability marginalization from resources, markets and marginalization from resources, markets and

servicesservices lack or diminishing social serviceslack or diminishing social services internal displacement (internal displacement (physical, economic and physical, economic and

affected by armed conflict including eviction affected by armed conflict including eviction and dislocation due to ‘development projects’)and dislocation due to ‘development projects’)

threatened environment due to threatened environment due to overexploitationoverexploitation

logging, mining, hydropower dams and other logging, mining, hydropower dams and other natural resources extraction and plundernatural resources extraction and plunder


► Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability human rights violations and political human rights violations and political

repression repression (political prisoners, summary (political prisoners, summary executions, enforced disappearances, executions, enforced disappearances, lack of freedom of assembly and lack of freedom of assembly and expression)expression)


► GovernanceGovernance generally governed by elite-democracy generally governed by elite-democracy

governments and some by constitutional governments and some by constitutional monarchy and military juntamonarchy and military junta

characterized by lack of transparency and characterized by lack of transparency and accountability and in some cases, large-scale accountability and in some cases, large-scale corruption corruption

Resources, especially land, water, natural Resources, especially land, water, natural resources and capital, continue to be resources and capital, continue to be concentrated in the hands of few elite families.concentrated in the hands of few elite families.

no social investment in building knowledge, no social investment in building knowledge, technology and infrastructure, much less in technology and infrastructure, much less in adapting to climate change.adapting to climate change.

implemented globalization across-the-boardimplemented globalization across-the-board

Overall VulnerabilityOverall Vulnerability

► The most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia The most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia include: all the regions of the Philippines, the include: all the regions of the Philippines, the Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam; almost all Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam; almost all the regions of Cambodia; North and East Lao PDR; the regions of Cambodia; North and East Lao PDR; the Bangkok region of Thailand; and the west and the Bangkok region of Thailand; and the west and south of Sumatra, and western and eastern Java in south of Sumatra, and western and eastern Java in Indonesia. Indonesia.

► The most vulnerable regions within countries are The most vulnerable regions within countries are the states of Kelantan and Sabah in Malaysia, the the states of Kelantan and Sabah in Malaysia, the National Capital Region, Southern Tagalog, National Capital Region, Southern Tagalog, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, the Cordillera Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, the Cordillera Administrative Region, and Bicol Province in the Administrative Region, and Bicol Province in the Philippines. Philippines.

Overall AccountabilityOverall Accountability

► Imperialist globalizationImperialist globalization Multilateral institutions, in behalf of TNCs of the Multilateral institutions, in behalf of TNCs of the

industrialized countries, have promoted the industrialized countries, have promoted the unsustainable pattern of production and unsustainable pattern of production and consumption by pushing for policies of consumption by pushing for policies of liberalization, privatization and deregulation liberalization, privatization and deregulation into the Third World countries. These policies into the Third World countries. These policies have rendered Third World economies have rendered Third World economies vulnerable and less adaptive to the impact of vulnerable and less adaptive to the impact of natural and man-made disasters.natural and man-made disasters.

Imperialist globalization has facilitated TNCs Imperialist globalization has facilitated TNCs amassing tremendous amounts of profits at the amassing tremendous amounts of profits at the expense of human and sustainable expense of human and sustainable development of the Third World. development of the Third World.


► Imperialist globalizationImperialist globalization Imperialist globalization has even facilitated the Imperialist globalization has even facilitated the

relocation of the more labor-intensive relocation of the more labor-intensive production stages of TNCs to Third World production stages of TNCs to Third World countries, using more carbon-intensive countries, using more carbon-intensive techniques and less efficient technologies in techniques and less efficient technologies in order to lower production costs for TNCs. And order to lower production costs for TNCs. And now underdeveloped countries such as China now underdeveloped countries such as China and India are being held equally liable.and India are being held equally liable.

Imperialist globalization has intensified the Imperialist globalization has intensified the local elite control over resources and supported local elite control over resources and supported inutile and corrupt governments of the Third inutile and corrupt governments of the Third World.World.


► Third World governments and eliteThird World governments and elite Governments have taken the hands-off style of Governments have taken the hands-off style of

governance with regard to public utilities and governance with regard to public utilities and social services and relegated the provision of social services and relegated the provision of these to foreign corporations (TNCs). these to foreign corporations (TNCs).

Planning, designing and implementing Planning, designing and implementing development projects, including adaptation to development projects, including adaptation to climate change, therefore have been privatized climate change, therefore have been privatized or become dependent on foreign debt.or become dependent on foreign debt.

Governments have also opened up the Governments have also opened up the environment to foreign plunder and exposed environment to foreign plunder and exposed communities and nations to environmental communities and nations to environmental crisis. crisis.


► Third World governmentsThird World governments As such, governments have defaulted on As such, governments have defaulted on

actively raising income levels, production actively raising income levels, production subsidies, price controls, education and subsidies, price controls, education and technical skills, food distribution, health care, technical skills, food distribution, health care, and disaster preparedness.and disaster preparedness.

They have neglected the most economically They have neglected the most economically and climate-vulnerable sectors such as the and climate-vulnerable sectors such as the poorest sections of the peasantry, namely poorest sections of the peasantry, namely small-scale farmers, small-scale fishers, small-scale farmers, small-scale fishers, indigenous peoples, mountain and forest indigenous peoples, mountain and forest people, upland farmers, pastoralists, including people, upland farmers, pastoralists, including the urban poor. the urban poor.

Facing ResponsibilityFacing Responsibility

►How much can the Earth tolerate?►Mitigation and adaptation – still within

globalization►Business-as-usual solution►The more relevant question is: How

much of these can we still tolerate?

Maraming salamat!Maraming salamat!

042009 climate change: third world vulnerability, first world accountability ros b de guzman

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