THE OCTOBERWAR AND

THE PEACE PROCESS

A FEW THINGS …

The October War of 1973 was not fought to contest Israel’s existence, but to create conditions for negotiation.

The re-mobilization of Palestinian politics after the 1967 war remains its most enduring consequence.

Islamism has replaced nationalism as the ideological center of Palestinian resistance, as exemplified by the emergence of Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Hamas (Gaza) in 1980s.

The “peace process” has failed because the Palestinians have nothing to trade.

It is no longer clear that the Israelis have anything to trade, either.

UN RESOLUTION 24222 NOV 1967

Affirms … the application of both the following principles:

Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict;

Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgement of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force;

Affirms further the necessity …

For achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem

UN RESOLUTION 24222 NOV 1967

Emphasizing the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war…

Affirms … the application of both the following principles:

Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict;

Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgement of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force;

Affirms further the necessity …

For achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem

RADICALIZATION

1964 Palestine Liberation Organization founded under Egyptian auspices and Syrian protection

Fatah [Nationalist – Yasser Arafat]

PFLP [~Marxist – George Habash]

1965 Fatah attack on Israel’s National Water Carrier

1968 Yasser Arafat, head of Fatah, becomes Chairman

“National Charter” revised away to emphasize territorial liberation via armed struggle

Commando-style raids aim is to stimulate popular uprising (fails)

RADICALIZATION

1964 Palestine Liberation Organization founded under Egyptian auspices and Syrian protection

Fatah [Nationalist – Yasser Arafat]

PFLP [~Marxist – George Habash]

1965 Fatah attack on Israel’s National Water Carrier

1968 Yasser Arafat, head of Fatah, becomes Chairman

“National Charter” revised away to emphasize territorial liberation via armed struggle

Commando-style raids aim is to stimulate popular uprising (fails)

Mar “Battle of Karameh” establishes PLO as fighting organization, ostensible PLO-Jordanian alliance

“BLACK SEPTEMBER”

1969 PLO attacks on Israel bring heavy retaliation against Jordan; frequent clashes between PLO and Jordanian security forces

1970 Edict restricting Palestinian organizations (Feb)

Jordanian forces bombard Palestinian camps around Amman (400 dead, 750 wounded)

Three hijacked western jetliners (by PFLP) landed in Jordan; hostages distributed among camps (6 Sept)

Comprehensive attack on PLO begins (17 Sept)

Syrian intervention beaten off by Jordanian air force

BLACK SEPTEMBER

1969 PLO attacks on Israel bring heavy retaliation against Jordan; frequent clashes between PLO and Jordanian security forces

1970 Edict restricting Palestinian organizations (Feb)

Jordanian forces bombard Palestinian camps around Amman (400 dead, 750 wounded)

Three hijacked western jetliners (by PFLP) landed in Jordan; hostages distributed among camps (6 Sept)

Comprehensive attack on PLO begins (17 Sept)

Syrian intervention beaten off by Jordanian air force

1972 Olympic village attack by “Black September”

SETTLEMENTS

Emphasizing the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war… (Resolution 242)2016

THE OCTOBERWAR

THEWAR OF ATTRITION1968-69

1968

Oct Egyptian bombardment across Suez canal, Israeli counter-raids; construction of Bar Lev Line begins

1969

Mar Renewed bombardment

Apr Israeli counter-raid at Nag Hamadi

Jul Offensive against Egyptian air defenses (thru Dec)

Sept Ras Sadat raid w/captured Egyptian vehicles

Dec Rogers Plan canvassed by US, requiring “binding and specific commitment to peace” in return for evacuation of Sinai

THEWAR OF ATTRITION1970

Jan IAF gets green light for attacks near Cairo and in the Nile Delta

Nasser visit to Moscow, obtains agreement on air defense umbrella

Mar Soviet advisors/SAM crews/pilots = 8K

in September = 14K

Apr Israeli deep penetration raids end

IAF begins to encounter Soviet pilots over Canal

Integrated missile defense creeps toward Canal

July Five Soviet-piloted MiGs shot down

Sept Nasser dies (heart attack)

THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES

1971

Feb Sadat proposes Israeli withdrawal from Canal in exchange for re-opening and six-month cease fire

May Planning for resumption of war begins

June Sadat announces 1972 will be “year of decision”

1972

Feb Planning for SAM �missile wall� begins

July Soviet advisors expelled [supplies continue]

THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES

Our basic objective will be the destruction of Israel. The Arab people want to fight. … [Our] mining of Sharm el-Sheikh is a confrontation with Israel. Adopting this measure obligates us to be ready to embark on a general war with Israel. (Gamal Abdel Nasser, May 1967)

In our coming battle, I will not be satisfied to liberate the land. Israel�s arrogance and bluster, which has been going on for twenty-three years, all this must be terminated. As I have told them: I am ready to pay one million men as the price for this battle. But they too must be ready to pay a million men and more on their side. (Anwar el-Sadat, May, 1972)

THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES

1973

Apr Alliance with Syria concluded

May Egyptian preparations noted by Israeli intelligence

Aug 6 October (Yom Kippur) chosen as D-day

Sept Egypt and Syria begin concentration

Routine Israeli alert

THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES

1973

Apr Alliance with Syria concluded

May Egyptian preparations noted by Israeli intelligence

Aug 6 October (Yom Kippur) chosen as D-day

Sept Egypt and Syria begin concentration

Routine Israeli alert

Oct 6 Israeli intelligence reports (04:00) that attack will occur at 1800

Spoiling air offensive rejected

Mobilization begins 09:30

SYRIAN ADVANCEOCTOBER 1973

6th Syrian air and artillery bombardment achieves tactical surprise

Commandos capture Mount Hermon

Israeli air attacks suffer badly vs Soviet SAMs (total loss = 30 on both fronts)

7th Syrian 7th Infantry repulsed at Quneitra

8th Syrian 5th Division breaks through at Rafid

SYRIAN ADVANCEOCTOBER 1973

6th Syrian air and artillery bombardment achieves tactical surpriseCommandos capture Mount HermonIsraeli air attacks suffer badly vs Soviet SAMs

(total loss = 30 on both fronts)7th Syrian 7th Infantry repulsed at Quneitra8th Syrian 5th Division breaks through at Rafid

Advanced halted at base of Golan HeightsAnticipation of Israeli reservesAttrition (~900 tanks, out of 1200)Logistical depletion[Nuclear threat]

Golda, I was wrong in everything. … We shall have to withdraw from the Golan Heights, and save the last bullet.

Moshe Dayan to Golda Meir, 8 October

ISRAELI COUNTERATTACKOCTOBER 1973

8-9th Israeli counterattack regains most of Purple Line below Quneitra

Renewed Syrian attack halted with difficulty

9th Syrian SCUD attacks against Hula Valley

Israeli air campaign against industrial and POL targets (thru 21st)

BREAKTHROUGHOCTOBER 1973

10th Israeli counter-offensive along Quneitra-Damascus road (thru 12th)

Advance halted short of Damascus in order to shift forces to Sinai

15th Attacks by Jordanian and Iraqi armor repulsed

(Originally intended to exploit Syrian success)

CEASE FIRE1973

22nd Israelis retake Mount Hermon shortly before cease-fire becomes effective (19:00)

1974May Separation of Forces Agreement

EGYPTIAN CROSSINGOCT 1973

6th Air and artillery strikes against Bar Lev line

6-7th Strong Egyptian forces cross Suez Canal

8th Israeli counterattacks (Adan and Sharon) repulsed with heavy losses

9th Soviet airlift to Egypt (1/3) and Syria (2/3) begins

EXPLOITATIONOCT 1973

11th Egyptians plan offensive into Sinai in order to relieve pressure on Syrian front

13th US airlift begins

14th Egyptian offensive toward Sinai passes crushed

264 Egyptian tanks destroyed [vs 10 Israeli]

“Sagger” anti-tank missile

OPERATION GAZELLE

15th Israelis cross canal at “Chinese Farm”

CEASE FIRE

20th Adan�s forces cut Cairo-Suez road

22nd UN cease-fire declared, collapses

24th Adan reaches Gulf of Suez, cutting off Third Army

Suez city surrounded, not taken

Second UN cease-fire effective (07:00)

Soviet airborne troops placed on alert to intervene on behalf of Third Army if cease-fire fails

25th US forces go to DEFCON III worldwide

27th UN agrees to re-insert peacekeepers in Sinai and on the Golan Heights

CEASE FIRE

22 Nov 1973Egypt and Israel exchange prisoners of war (241 Israelis, 8,031 Egyptians)

18 Jan 1974 [Sinai I]Disengagement begins

4 Sept 1975 [Sinai II]

26 Feb 1976Israeli withdrawal complete

20 Nov 1977Sadat visits Jerusalem

CAMP DAVID17 SEPT 1978

LEBANON AND THE INTIFADA

LEBANON

1970 PLO ejected from Jordan

1975 Civil war in Lebanon begins

1976 Syrian intervention

1978 Operation Litani (Mar)

Israeli forces replaced by UN (Apr-June)

PLO continue to fortify position in the south

1979 Israeli-Egyptian Peace / Iranian Revolution

1981 US-mediated cease-fire (July)

1982 Fails (May)

PEACE FOR GALILEEJUNE, 1982

6th Two-pronged offensive (3 divs) along coast and through Beqa’a Valley

11th Israeli forces reach Beirut-Damascus road

Cease fire with main Syrian forces

Fighting with PLO / Syrian commandos continues

15th Israeli forces advance on Beirut

Mopping-up operations in countryside

26th Israelis drive Syrians from outskirts of Beirut

THE SIEGE BEIRUT1982

26 June-3 Sept

Artillery bombardment of Muslim (Western) districts

Air-dropped leaflets urging non-combatants to leave

Utilities down, food / medicine blockaded (thru 7 July)

August

Withdrawal plan by Philip Habib approved by Israelis

Multi-national force (US, French, Italian) deploys to insure safe withdrawal of PLO and Syrians

PLO leadership relocates to Tunis

THE SIEGE OF BEIRUT1982

September

Last PLO combatants leave city (3rd)

Christian Phalangist militia seeking PLO fighters slaughter hundreds of women and children in Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps (16th – 18th)

LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE

1983 US embassy bombed, 63 killed (Apr)

241 US and 58 French peacekeepers killed in simultaneous suicide attacks

First known operation by Hezbollah

1984 International peacekeepers withdraw from Beirut

Buffer zone established in the south

LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE

2002 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon

2005 Syrian forces withdraw from Eastern Lebanon

LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE

2002 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon

2005 Syrian forces withdraw from Eastern Lebanon

2006 Second Lebanon War [vs Hezbollah]

INTIFADA1987-91

1987 Rioting / demonstrations / tax strikes / non-cooperation (Dec)

Ad hoc “United Leadership of the Intifada”

1988 First communiqué from Hamas (Feb)

Jordan renounces all claims on West Bank (July)

UN General Assembly meets in Geneva; Yasser Arafat renounces terrorism

1989 First suicide bombing [Hamas]

THE PEACE PROCESS

THE PEACE PROCESS

1991 Madrid Conference (Oct-Nov)1993 Oslo I [“Declaration of Principles”] (Sept)

PLO renounces “violence and terrorism”PLO accepts UN resolutions 242 and 338PLO accepts Israel’s right to existPLO representative of Palestinian people

1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty (Oct)1995 Oslo II [“Interim Agreement”] (Sept)

Autonomy by degrees within zones

Freeze of settlementsDemilitarization of conflict

Yitzhak Rabin assassinated (Nov)

THE PEACE PROCESS

2000 Camp David “Final Status” negotiations (July)

[Israel withdraws from Southern Lebanon (July)]

Sharon visit to Al-Aqsa Mosque sparks rioting

THE PEACE PROCESS

2001 Taba Conference (Jan)

2002 Karine A seized (Jan)

THE PEACE PROCESS

2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)

Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)

Pre-1967 frontiers

“Right of return”

THE PEACE PROCESS

2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)

Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)

Pre-1967 frontiers

“Right of return”

THE PEACE PROCESS

2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)

Pre-1967 frontiers“Right of return”

2003 Palestinian Draft ConstitutionQuartet “Road Map” [US, EU, UN, Russia]

2004 Yasser Arafat dies, succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas2005 Israel abandons Gaza Strip2006 Hamas Electoral Victory

[Second Lebanon War]2007 Hamas coup in Gaza (June)

GAZA

2008 “Cast Lead”

2012 “Pillar of Defense”

2014 “Protective Edge”

2018 “Great March of Return”