OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS IN CHINA

Presenters: Shannon Brink, Harrison Godfrey, Mary Kang, Shelly Lyser, Joseph Majkut, Samantha Mignotte Wei Peng, Matt Reid, Madhurita Sengupta, Laura Singer

Faculty Advisor: Professor Denise Mauzerall

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A Review and Policy Recommendations

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1(*23$.&,4560*(Denise Mauzerall, Associate Professor of Public and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School

PRESENTATION FOR THE STEP SEMINAR SERIES FEBRUARY 11, 2013 PRINCETON, NJ

AUTHORS Shannon Brink, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Development Economics

Harry Godfrey, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Domestic Policy

Mary Kang, Ph.D. Candidate, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Shelly Lyser, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Domestic Policy

Joseph Majkut, Ph.D. Candidate, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences  

Samantha Mignotte, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Rural and Agricultural Development

Wei Peng, Ph.D. Candidate, Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy

Matthew Reid, Ph.D. Candidate, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Madhurita Sengupta, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, International Affairs

Laura Singer, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, International Affairs

Project Advisor

Denise Mauzerall, Professor of Environmental Engineering and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

� Project Background and Overview

� Sector Analyses �  Organic Waste Sectors

�  Municipal Solid Waste

�  Agriculture

�  Wastewater

�  Fossil Fuels Sector - Oil and Gas

� Recommendations Summary

OUR PROJECT �  Client: Global Methane Initiative (GMI)

�  International effort to target methane abatement, recovery, and use.

�  Includes 50 countries accounting for approximately 60 percent of global methane emissions.

�  Administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

�  Task: Examine methane emissions from source sectors in China, identify opportunities for mitigation.

MOTIVATION: WHY METHANE?

�  Methane mitigation offers opportunities to slow the effects of global warming. �  Methane is the second-most

important greenhouse gas in its warming potential, after CO2.

�  Methane is a precursor for ground-level ozone. �  Mitigation reduces detrimental effects

on health, agriculture and ecosystems.

Species Global Warming Potential (100-yr. time period)

Atmospheric Concentration (2005)

Radiative Forcing (2005) (W/m2)

CO2 1 379 ppm 1.66

CH4 25 1,774 ppb 0.48

N20 310 319 ppb 0.16

Sources: EPA 2013, IPCC 2007

WHY CHINA?

Source: USEPA 2011

China 13%

India 9%

United States 9%

Russia 7%

Brazil 5% Indonesia

3% Nigeria

2% Mexico

2%

Rest of World 50%

China’s Share of Global Methane Emissions in 2010 Total Global Emissions: ~7200 MtCO2e (~300 MtCH4)

Conversion of MtCH4 to MtCO2e: MtCO2e = GWP CH4 * MtCH4 GWP CH4 = 25

�  China is largest emitter of methane in the world.

�  Land size and population contribute to large-scale emissions.

�  Emissions will only increase with: �  Population growth; and �  Economic growth, as

consumption per capita increases.

SECTORS ANALYZED

� Organic Waste � Municipal Solid Waste � Agriculture � Wastewater

� Fossil Fuels - Oil and Gas

Source: USEPA 2011

WHY THESE SECTORS?

Coal 32% Enteric

Fermentation 23%

Wastewater Treatment

14%

Rice 14%

Landfills 5%

Biomass Combustion

5%

Stationary & Mobile

Combustion 4%

Manure Management

2%

Natural Gas & Oil

Production 1%

China's Methane Emissions in 2010 Total Emissions = 924.5 MtCO2e �  EPA/GMI interest

�  New and innovative sectors for control (esp. wastewater)

�  Not necessarily due to size of emissions share

ORGANIC WASTE SECTORS

� Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) � Agriculture � Wastewater

MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE (MSW)

MSW & CH4 IN CHINA

2010 Statistics Urban Rural

Pop Share 49% 51%

MSW Per Capita 517 kg 390 kg

Total MSW Prod. 326 Mt 277 Mt

Pop & MSW Trajectories: •  Chinese pop (2010): 1.34 billon

•  Peaks in 2025 @ 1.4 billion •  Annual Urban growth: 1.3% •  Annual Growth rate MSW: 3.69%

Three Possible MSW Pathways: •  Open Dumps •  Composting, Recycling, Incineration •  Landfills

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

Met

hane

Em

issi

ons

/ Yea

r (b

cm)

Projected CH4 Emissions (2011-2030)

Total Projected CH4 Emissions

AGRICULTURE: MANURE MANAGEMENT

CH4 EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK MANURE AND HOUSEHOLD BIOGAS DEVELOPMENT

�  The government has invested heavily in household biogas digester installation to promote rural energy security.

�  Poor maintenance has diminished biodigester functionality, leading to CH4 leakage.

�  New policies have tried to address maintenance failures, but capacity is limited.

�  Current technology doesn’t adequately address future trends in CH4 emissions from agriculture. �  Shift in CH4 emissions from agriculture

from southern to northern provinces �  Increasing number of large and medium

scale livestock facilities

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2005   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035  

Met

hane

Em

issi

ons

(MT

CO

2e)

Year  

Projected Increases in CH4 from Livestock Manure Management

Total

Swine

PROJECTED UNCAPTURED CH4 EMISSIONS FROM BIODIGESTER MANAGEMENT OF LIVESTOCK MANURE 2012-2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Met

hane

Em

issi

ons

(MT

CO

2e)

Year

40 Million

60 Million

80 Million

40 Million

60 Million

80 Million

Fully Functioning

60 % Functioning

Scenarios (constant 2010 – 2030)

Scenario 1: 2010 number of biodigesters (38 million)

Scenario 2: 75% of the 2020 gov’t target (60 million)

Scenario 3: 2020 gov’t target (80 million)

Functionality

Status Quo: 40% Biodigesters function

Optimal Functionality: 100% function

WASTEWATER TREATMENT

Domestic Wastewater

Collected Uncollected

Untreated Treated

Stagnant sewer

Pit latrines Wastewater

Treatment Plants

Released to water bodies

Yellow = Major Methane Sources

Ø  China is the largest source of CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment, producing 29% of global wastewater-related emissions

WASTEWATER TREATMENT IN CHINA

Sources: He 2007, USEPA 2010

FUTURE EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS Existing Technology Moderate Technology Expansion Maximum Feasible Technology

CH4 Emissions (2030)

87 MtCO2e 7% increase from 2010

62 MtCO2e ~25% decrease

26 MtCO2e ~65% decrease

Outlooks

•  Household biogas digesters reduce CH4 emissions by 9 Mt CO2e (~10% total domestic wastewater CH4 emissions) •  Urbanization curbs even greater emissions increases

•  Tradeoff between improved wastewater treatment and methane emissions in rural areas (pit latrines instead of open discharge) •  More reductions possible with low methane sludge management

•  Negligible emissions resulting from near universal urban WWTP coverage, but higher energy requirements •  Widespread adoption of biogas digesters to limit emissions from rural areas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Met

hane

Em

issi

ons

(Mt

CO

2e)

Year

With Biogas Digesters

Without Biogas Digesters •  Need for better data on wastewater

technology use and China emissions factors

•  Sludge management and biogas recovery from large-scale anaerobic digestion

•  Biogas capture and utilization from latrines

METHANE EMISSIONS REDUCTION OPPORTUNITIES

FROM THE FOSSIL FUEL SECTOR

CHINA’S OIL & GAS SECTOR

OUTLINE - OIL & GAS SECTOR

� Overview � Market Activity � Emissions and Projections � Mitigation Technologies � Recommendations

OIL & GAS SECTOR: INTRODUCTION

� Three of the eight low cost mitigation measures identified by UNEP are in the oil and gas sector.

� According to the U.S. GHG Inventory for 2006: � 91% of GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector are

associated with the natural gas industry: and � 90% of the GHG emissions from the natural gas industry

is methane.

� Focus on natural gas industry assuming these trends are applicable to China.

Sources: UNEP 2011, EPA 2006

GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID

Source: MIT 2011

MARKET ACTIVITY

�  World largest potential: 36tcm

�  Ambitious official goal: 6.5bcm in 2015, 60-100bcm in 2020

�  Early stage of assessment, no commercial production

Why Shale gas is different:

Pricing -Market-based

Players -Domestic: Non-Big-Three -Foreign: Company-Joint ventures: Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips Public sector: US-China Shale Gas Resources Initiative

Fig. Shale gas exploration activities (Publicly auctioned）

CHINA’S NATURAL GAS MARKET

Current: Small but Growing Future: Shale gas boom? �  Structure: Oligopolistic, dominated

by three vertically-integrated state-owned enterprises (“Big-Three”)

�  Pricing: Regulated, higher than US price.

Consumption: 130bcm 4% of total energy consumption

Source: EIA 2011, IEA 2012

EMISSIONS FROM NATURAL GAS: PROJECTIONS

2030 2020 2010

Unconventional Production Conventional Production Imports

CHINA’S METHANE EMISSIONS FROM NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY

Units are in Mt CO2e

11 27

29

39

40

49

31

Note that the same emission factor is applied to conventional / unconventional production and imports (i.e. consumption) since emission factors are highly uncertain.

Low

Moderate

IEA’s Golden Rules Case

Low

Moderate

IEA’s Golden Rules Case

�  Calculate emissions, E = A x EF x (1-ER)

Data from 1996 IPCC GHG Inventory Data and the International Energy Agency (IEA)

MITIGATION STRATEGIES

METHANE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS VS. RETURN ON INVESTMENT

Plunger Lift Systems

Source: U.S. EPA Website 2012 Leaking Profits, NRDC 2012

No-Bleed Pneumatic Controllers

Reduced Emissions

Completions

�  Payback period in China is much shorter than in the U.S., given Chinese market prices.

�  Cost-effective technologies can generate up to 90% emissions reductions.

RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY

POTENTIAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Sector Emission Reductions

Range for 2030 (% of Total Sector Emissions)

Co-Benefits Challenges

Municipal Solid Waste

47-90 MtCO2e (24-45%)

•  Public health and sanitation •  Improve recycling and

composting •  Alternative fuel source •  Aesthetic value

•  Capital costs •  Labor requirements •  Dispersed rural population •  Urban land-use

Agriculture: Manure

Management

17-36 MtCO2e (17-36%)

•  Rural energy security •  Air quality and respiratory

health •  Water quality

•  Cold-weather technology development

•  Dispersed population •  Human capital constraints to

maintenance

Wastewater 20-58 MtCO2e (23-66%)

•  Public health and sanitation •  Water quality and scarcity •  Nitrous oxide mitigation •  Rural energy security

•  Capital costs •  Rapid urbanization limits city

planning •  Dispersed rural populations

Natural Gas 31-44 MtCO2e (<90%)

•  Energy security •  Economic growth

•  Technology transfer •  Technology advancement

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS �  Organic Waste

�  Improve quality and detail of available data about treatment processes in all waste sectors.

�  Explore options for effectively capturing and utilizing biogas from waste treatment processes.

�  Urbanization presents an opportunity for smart urban planning that integrates emissions considerations into waste treatment and disposal.

�  Fossil Fuels �  Implement policies that encourage the use of cost-effective methane

leak management technologies. �  �„Work with institutions at all levels in the gas industry: the “Big

Three” Chinese energy companies, other companies exploring shale gas in China, and international institutions.

�  �„Promote the adoption of the Golden Rules for Natural Gas.

THANK YOU – QUESTIONS?

Faculty Advisor: Professor Denise Mauzerall

Presenters: Shannon Brink, Harrison Godfrey, Mary Kang, Shelly Lyser, Joseph Majkut, Samantha Mignotte, Wei Peng, Matt Reid, Madhurita Sengupta, Laura Singer

MOTIVATING FACTORS

�  Co-benefits offer positive societal impact �  Profitable opportunities for emissions reduction

�  Improved air quality

�  Improved sanitation and health

�  Increased access to energy in rural areas

�  Energy security

�  China has an opportunity to demonstrate leadership in climate change policy �  Methane mitigation policies offer a means

�  Model successful capture and utilization technologies to other developing countries

�  Foster and strengthen international collaboration through increased partnerships with organizations like GMI, U.S.-China Shale Gas Initiative, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, etc.

� Emissions can be approximated by (EPA, 2012):

E = A x EF x (1-ER)

E = total emissions A = activity rate EF = emission factor ER = emission reduction factor

DEFINITIONS AND METHODOLOGY