..

Mr. Gehendra B. Gurung

Team Leader: Reducing Vulnerability

Practical Action Nepal

Pandol Marg, Lazimpat

P. O. Box 15135, Kathmandu, Nepal

Tel: +977 1 4446015, 4434482

Fax: +977 1 4445995

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

I am not quit familiar with how this e-mail discussion works. I would suggest to provide a guiding instruction to the members.

Secondly I would suggest to post an opening key e-mail to stimulate the discussion. I think the priority of the discussion is to highlight the impacts of climate change in Nepal and need for adaptation to it. In many cases when climate change discussions take place, it focuses on projections for the future - future climate change, its impacts etc. To me our priority is not to make future projections. Our priority is to take immediate actions for adaptation. So our discussion should focus on what are impacts on human life and natural systems in Nepal, what we need to do for adaptation and coping.

Again he wrote:

I am Gehendra Gurung working at Practical Action Nepal (former ITDG), an INGO with its head office in the UK. Climate change adaptation is one of my responsibilities and subject of interest. My interest is on adaptation to climate change. There have already been considerable impacts of climate change in Nepal including glacier melting and snow line retreat and the adaptation and coping measures have become urgent without any delay. I hope this e-conference will bring out some of practical measures to help the communities and the Himalayan nations to adapt to climate change.

..

Dr. Vishwambhar Prasad Sati

Asso Professor and Head

Department of Geography

Government Post Graduate College

Shivpuri, Madhya Pradesh, India

Phone: 0091 94257 10429

Fax: 0091 7492 401157

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

I am Dr. Vishwambhar Prasad Sati, working as Associate Professor of Geography, in Government Post Graduate College, Shivpuri, Madhya Pradesh, India. My field of interest is Mountain Ecology and Development in general and Uttaranchal Himalaya in particular. The e-conference on Climate Change and Himalayan Glaciers is very interesting. I hope, we will reach upto the expected outcome.

..

Mr. G. Prasad Babu

GIS Engineer,

Spatial Modeling Group

RMSI Pvt. Ltd.

Mobile: 09899068975

Office: 0120-2511102 Ext. 2641

URL: www.rmsi.com

Date: May 7, 2007

Hi,

This is G. Prasad Babu, currently working as GIS Engineer at RMSI Pvt. Ltd (www.rmsi.com ), Noida, India.

Earlier I was there in Royal University of Bhuta as a lecturer in Geology and Remote Sensing. I had had enjoyed the pleasant surprises of Himalayas.

I am focusing in the areas of Natural Hazards in Himalayas, worked in Environmental issues, Landslides, Glaciers, Earthquakes and Floods using Remote Sensing, GIS and GPS.

In comming days,, I would like to share my little knowledge and looking forward to learn more from peer group.

I wisheveryone allthe best and let us have a healthy discussion toSAVE MOTHER EARTH.

..

Mr. Vibek Raj Maurya

Special Correspondent

Himalkhabar Patrika

Himalmedia Pvt Ltd

Hattiban, Lalitpur, NEPAL

Phone: (977 1)554 3333

Fax: (977 1)552 1013

URL: www.himalmedia.com

www.nepalihimal.com

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

I am Vibek Raj Maurya and I am working as a journalist for Himalmedia. I am environment science graduate by training. I have been covering environment, development and science-technology related stories for vernacular fortnightly Himalkhabar Patrika (www.nepalihimal.com). Occasionally, I also write for Nepali Times (www.nepalitimes.com), oursister publication.

I expect that coming e-conference shall help me understand impact of climate change in the Himalayan Region deeply and critically. I wish very best for all the participants...

Mr. Krishna Rokka

Graduate student

Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Date: May 7, 2007

Greetings to all,

I am Krishna Roka from Nepal. I am a graduate student at Yale School ofForestry and Environmental Studies and will be joining PennsylvaniaState University for doctoral program in Fall 2007. My interests arefocused on poverty, natural resource management, and governance in rural communities in the mountains.Since climate change is a cross cutting issue that is or will be affecting all of the above, I aspire to better understand the issue and try to actively participate during theconference. My best wishes to all the participants and thanks to the organizers...

Mr. Keshav Kumar Sharma

Forum for Justice (FORJUST)

299- Madhya Marg, Buddhanagar

New Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal

GPO Box: 19062

Tel: 4783532, 4783395, 4783607

Fax: 4782765

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

Accept my sincerest greetings. I am Keshav Kumar Sharma, an MS (Research) student at Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel. As a researcher at KU I am evaluating the sciences of Land and Water Management in Rainfed Farming System in Siwalicks and Lower Foothills of Nepal. Which broadly represent sampling areas. Kapilvastu (Barkalpur VDC-2)and Pyuthan (Bangesal VDC-2)will be the districts where I will carry out my research activities. Providing these information, I am pleased to admit that my research work willalso deal with analyzing the total carbon stock/sequestration in theagricultural field of these districts.

With this e-conference, I am interestingly looking ahead to receiving more knowledge particularly in soil carbon sequestration in the dry soils of rainfed farming which is less favor area for pursuing agricultural activities with copies perspective.

..

Mr. Adam Liddle.

Postgraduate student

MSc in Environment & Development

University of Edinburgh, UK

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

My name is Adam Liddle. I am a postgraduate studentstudying for an MSc in Environment & Developmentat the University of Edinburgh, UK. My dissertation is in conjunction with Mercy Corps (through whom I have been introduced to this conference), and will focus on the impacts of climate change on snow melt and glacier retreat and the effects for land-use and livelihoods in downstream communities of North West Nepal.

I shall be researching in Kathmandu from 11th May - 8th June, and hopefully I will be able to meet up with some of you in person to discuss livelihoods issues in more detail. As I am relatively inexperienced in this field and can only offer academic opinions rather than practical knowledge, my main objective of the following discussion is to learn - and maybe quote some of you in my dissertation!

..

Dr. Narayan Chaulagain

Project Promotion Manager

People, Energy & Environment Development Association (PEEDA)

Bhanimandal, Ekantakuna, Lalitpur

P.O.Box 8975, EPC 2157

Tel. 00977-1-5530337, 5540792,

Fax: 00977-1-5529873

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear all,

I am Narayan Chaulagain, Civil Hydropower Engineer by education. I have completed PhD in Energy and Resource Economics from the University of Flensburg, Germany, with the title of the dissertation Impacts of climate change on water resources of Nepal: The physical and socioeconomic dimensions. Before that I had finished MSc in Energy Systems and Management from the same University. The areas of my interest are renewable energy, climate change, sustainable development and poverty reduction.

..

Tek Jung Mahat

ICIMOD, Nepal

Coordinator, E-conference on Climate Change and the Himalayan glaciers

Date: May 7, 2007

My name is Tek Jung Mahat and I am from Kathmandu, Nepal.

I have a Masters Degree in Environmental Science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal with specializations in Mountain Environment Management and Environmental Economics and am currently completing Masters in Anthropology as a second degree.

I have about six years of working experience with competent Nepalese NGOs, The Explore Nepal and Nepal River Conservation Trust (NRCT) in various capacities and about 22 months of working experience with Asia regional organisation Asia Pacific Mountain Network (APMN), global organisation Mountain Forum (MF) and intergovernmental organization International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) as the latest assignment. Besides, I am also working as a part-time Lecturer at couple of colleges affiliated to the Tribhuvan University (TU) and the Purbanchal University (PU). In addition to this, currently I am running an independent knowledge network the Environment Professional Group (EPG) and serving NRCT as a Technical Advisor.

My areas of expertise are: natural resources conservation and management, economic valuation, environmental communication and application of ICT for knowledge management, social mobilization, project planning and management, environmental pollution control and climate change (scientific research and responses including policy measures).

My ethnic root belongs to indigenous mountain community "Khasa" based in Jumla district of Nepal.

In the ongoing e-conference, I am responsible to ensure proper coordination and making the system work...

Mr. Susheel Dangol

Survey Officer

Ministry of Land Reform and Management

Student

Khwopa College

Date: May 7, 2007

I am Susheel Dangol curently engaged in government service as Survey Officer at Ministry of Land Reform and Management. I have finished M.Sc. in environment science from Khwopa College and doing thesis in Flood Hazard Mapping. My interest is in application of GIS and RS in the field of Environmental Disaster. With this e-conference, I am looking ahead to get more knowledge particularly in Application of GIS and RS in environmental studies.

..

Ms. Saima Siddiqui,

Research Officer/Lecturer,

Centre for Integrated Mountain Research,

University f the Punjab, Quaid-i-Azam Campus

Lahore Pakistan

Phone/Fax 92-42-9230587

URL: http://www.pu.edu.pk/departments/default.asp?deptid=50

Date: May 7, 2007

Dear All,

Greetings from Pakistan

I am Saima Siddiqui working as Research Officer/Lecturer in Centre for Integrated Mountain Research, University of the Punjab. I have done M.Sc. in Geography from University of the Punjab and now doing MS in Total Quality Management with special reference to Health, Safety and Environmental Management. Working in the field of Mountainous Studies is a great interest of mine and I love to learn more and more about the Mountains.

It will be a matter of great interest to you all that more than 58% of Pakistan's National Territory consists of Mountainous areas and these areas needs special attention in terms of Research and Development.Our Centre is starting its first ever M.Sc.academic Program in Pakistan in Mountain Conservation and Watershed Management (MCWM) w.e.f. September 2007that will be helpful in producing skilled manpower that will be able to work for the mountain environments/regions in terms of research and development.

As far as the e-conference is concerned I hopeit will behelpful to share experiences and knowledge of Mountains in terms of Climatic Change and gives opportunity to address Climatic issues in Himalayan Mountains too. I assure you my full participation in the e-conference.

..

Mr. Vimal khawas

Associate Fellow

Council for Social Development

New Delhi-110003, India

Tel: 91-11-24615383, 24611700, 24618660, 24692655

Date: May 8, 2007

I am currently, Associate Fellow at the Council for Social Development and Senior Research Scholar, at the Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

I have been trained in geography and regional development from Centre for the Study of Regional Development, JNU, New Delhi and in Development Planning from the School of Planning, Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology, Ahmedabad. Born and brought up in rural Darjeeling Himalaya, I have an inherent fondness to work on issues pertaining to environment and development dynamics of the Himalayas.

..

Mr. R. Sreedhar

Managing Trustee

Environics Trust

33 B Third Floor,

Saidullajab, M-B Road,

New Delhi 110030

Telefax:91-11-29531814

URL: www.environicsindia.org

Date: May 8, 2007

Dear all,

My name is R. Sreedhar. I am a geologist and after having been with Dept. of Atomic Energy and ONGC for the past two decades have been working in the Himalayas, largely in NW Himalayas. I am a co-founder of Environics Trust with which I have been associated for over a decade. I am also a co-founder of the Indian Network on Ethics and climate Change (INECC). INECC has over the last decade apart from raising the issue from a community perspective has been publishing a quarterly newsletter.

Coming to the issue of Climate Change in the Himalayas

1) One fundamental question is what is caused locally and what is contributed by the global processes - there seems to be very little clarity;

2) We have been witnessing extreme weather events - short bursts of rain - cloud-bursts and micro-climatic variations which are not well recoded to understand the trends - we found in several parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal rhododendron (burans) flowering in January!

3) What are means to cope? A decade ago when we conducted a meeting on climate change and people in glacial margins we realised that there were years when snow did not melt until late and cropping was not possible- yet governments have no mechanism for support as they have for drought or floods.

The conference is very important and wish it all the success.

..

Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha

Assistant Professor

Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering

Kathmandu University

Dhulikhel, Kavre

P.O. Box 6250 Kathmandu, NEPAL

Phone: 977 11 661399 Ext. 189

Fax: 977 11 661443

http://www.ku.edu.np/env/Brief_CV-Rijan.doc

Date: May 9, 2007

Dear all participants,

Hello!

I am Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha from Bhaktapur, Nepal. After completing the Master course from the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Nepal, I went to Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan for Master course in Glaciology in 1991 and became the first Glaciologist of Nepal in 1994 and joined the Snow and Glacier Hydrology Unit, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Kathmandu, Nepal. Afterworking 3 and half years as glaciologist in DHM, I received Doctorate Degree in Glaciology from Nagoya University in 2001. Then I worked as a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Postdoc Researcher in Nagoya University from 2001 to 2003. From 2003 to 2005 I worked as a Max Planck Postdoc Researcher in the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany. From 2006 I am in the Dept. of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal as an Assistant Professor.I have worked on many Nepalese glaciers and glacier lakes such as Glacier AX010, Yala Glacier, Khumbu Glacier, Lirung Glacier, Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake, Imja Glacier Lake and Thulagi Glacier Lake. I have visited the Everest Base Camp, Machhapuchhre Base Camp, Annapurna Base Camp and Chhota Shigri Glacier in India. My research papers are on glacier mass model based on energy balance calculations, positive degree-day method for estimating ablation on both debris-covered and debris-free glaciers and the Himalayan glacier hydrology.For your kind information, some of my relevant papers for this e-conference are:1) Use of positive degree-day methods for calculating snow and ice melting and discharge from glacierized basins in the Langtang Valley, central Nepal. Kayastha, R. B., Y. Ageta and K. Fujita (2005). In: Carmen de Jong, D. Collins and R. Ranzi (eds) Climate and Hydrology in Mountain Areas, John Wiley, Chichester, 7-14.

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/bookhome/112369596/?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

2) Changes of the equilibrium line altitude since the Little Ice Age in the Nepalese Himalayas. Kayastha, R. B. and Harrison, S. P. (2007). In: Glacier Fluctuations in the Asian High Mountains, IUGG Conference, Perugia, Italy, 2007 (accepted in JMS027 UCCS Symposium posted by IAMAS) http://www.iugg2007perugia.it

3) Effect of climate change on Nepalese water resources. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, 2007. In: International Conference on Emerging Issues on Research and Development organized by Japanese University Students Association, Nepal (JUSAN).

4) Practical prediction of ice melt beneath debris cover of various thickness on Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, using a positive degree-day factor (2000). Rijan B. KAYASTHA, Yukari TAKEUCHI, Masayoshi NAKAWO and Yutaka AGETA. In: Debris-Covered Glaciers (Proc. of Intl. Workshop on debris-covered glaciers, Seattle, USA, Sept. 2000), IAHS Publ. no. 264, pp. 71-81. http://www.cig.ensmp.fr/~iahs/redbooks/a264/26408.htm..

Dr (Miss) Harshvanti Bisht

FRGS, Arjuna Award 1981

Member Indian Everest Expedition 1984

Reader Department of Economics, Govt. P.G.College, Uttarkashi, U A, India

http://savegangotri.org

Date: May 9, 2007

Hello to all,

I a mountaineer, Reader Economics, in Government Post Graduate College, Uttarkashi, Uttarakhand, India and a eco-activist. I have climbed Nanda Devi the second highest mountain peak of India. I was member to Indian Everest Expedition 1984. But my latest interest is eco-conservation and plantation of Bhojpatra (Birch)in Bhojbasa area (altitude 12500 ft ) just 4 k.m.down below the snout of 28 k.m. long Gangotri glacier. It is well known that Himalayan glaciers are receding. So,how to adjust and work with the changing scenario of water supply, agriculture, horticulture, socio -cultural and economic situation? This will be the biggest problem for the high Landers.

I hope this e conference will come to the conclusion to show right path to the people to fight the problems...

Ripendra Awal

Date: May 9, 2007

I would like to know about different studies related to climate change and its impact on river flow (Nepalese river). The maximum instantaneous discharge of many stations published by DHM in 1998 and 2004 is different but I am not sure about daily discharge. You can see the comparison of data set of two stations in attached file but I don't know the reason behind the discrepancies in two data sets. If data itself is not correct it is hard to believe conclusions derived from such studies.

..

Mr. Vimal khawas

Associate Fellow

Council for Social Development

New Delhi-110003, India

Tel: 91-11-24615383, 24611700, 24618660, 24692655

Date: May 9, 2007

Global warming and consequent changes in the climatic pattern across the geographies of the planet has been a hot topic in recent times across disciplines- both natural and social sciences. Former Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan emphasised at the 'Climate Change Conference in Nairobi' in November 2006 that climate change is not just an environmental problem, but also a health problem, a security problem and an economic problem for all nations. Today it is largely accepted that planet-wide environmental degradation has been occurring largely due to unscientific anthropogenic activities and such activities have led to global warming. The situation has become a serious concern for all of us.

Before the discussion takes off, I would like to be clarified with some of the points, thatI have in my mind, by the experts working on the subject. These are not my personal points. They are published and are available to the readers. The points are pasted below:

1. There are many scientists [e.g. Prof. Ian Clark, expert in palaeo-cimatology from the University of Ottawa; Prof. Paul Reiter, expert in malaria from Pasteur Institute in Paris; Gary Calder, former editor of New Scientist; Prof. Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London]who do not accept the theory that greenhouse gases cause global warming and subsequent global climate change. They state that there is little scientific evidence to support the theory. According to them, global warming could be caused by increased solar activity such as a massive eruption. Ian Clark claims, 'warmer periods of the Earth's history came around 800 years before rises in carbon dioxide levels. After World War II, there was a huge surge in carbon dioxide emissions, yet global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940'. According to Philip Stott, 'the system is too complex to say exactly what the effect of cutting back on CO2 production would be or indeed of continuing to produce CO2. It is ridiculous to see politicians arguing over whether they will allow the global temperature to rise by 2c or 3c'. [See: The Times of India, "Researchers rubbish greenhouse theory", (Times International), March 7, 2007.]

2. The UN report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in February. At the time, it was promoted as being backed by more than 2000 of the world's leading scientists. But Professor Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris said it was a 'sham' as the list included the names of scientists who disagree with its findings. Professor Reiter's name was removed from an assessment only when he threatened legal action against the panel. According to him, that is how they make it seem that all the top scientists are agreed. It is not true. [Reported by Julie Wheldon in Daily Mail, London; reproduced by The Times of India, "Researchers rubbish greenhouse theory", (Times International), March 7, 2007.]

3. The over dramatistion of global warming message has more recently been termed as 'Hollywoodisation of Global Warming'. Scientists like Paul Hardaker and Chris Collier of the UK's Royal Meteorological Society believe that scientists, campaign groups, politicians, and the media were all guilty of making out that catastrophic events were more likely to happen when this could not be proved by scientists. According to Professor Collier to make the blanket assumption that all extreme weather events are increasing is a bit too early yet. They, however, firmly believe that global warming is happening and man-made emissions of green house gases are partly to blame. Some scientists also acknowledge that dramatic warnings about climate change have helped generate public debate and support for action to reduce the threat. However, exaggeration of the problems often confuses the public and paves the way for skeptics to argue in a wrong perspective. According to Professor Hardaker, scientists need to be more honest about the uncertainties surrounding climate change prediction to avoid losing pubic trust. Once we begin to exaggerate the science in either direction the debate gets out of control.[ See Jowit, J (2007), "Don't exaggerate climate dangers, warn scientists", The Hindu, March 19 ].

4. According to Dr. Milap Chand Sharma of Jawaharlal Nehru University, who has done extensive research of glacial geomorphology in the Western Himalaya, "glaciers are the most sensitive parameters of temperature change, both positive and negative. However, global warming is not the reason of glacial retreat. It is a simple cyclic episode" [ See: Down to Earth 2006, 15 December: 30].

5.A gainst the conclusions of conventional geo-science, the recent finding of the scientists at England's Newcastle University is bit different. According to their analysis of temperature trends in the western Himalaya over the past century, global warming could be causing some glaciers to grow ( See BBC News 2006: 24 August; The Australian 2006: 04 September). They found warmer winters and cooler summers, combined with heavier snow and rainfall could be causing some mountain glaciers to increase in size.Their research focussed on the Upper Indus Basin. The findings are published in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate (ibid).

6. R ecent scientific study has found out that 106 new glaciers have formed in the mountains of Bhutan since the last inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes in Bhutan by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in 2001 [See: Kuensel 2006: Decmber 3].

7..it has been well documented that the Khumbu glaciers are thinning and retreating and that potentially hazardous glacial lakes are forming. At issue, however, is the degree of hazard, and this appears to have been grossly over-estimated. We must also ask how the occurrence of a natural event (ie jkulhlaup or glacial outburst floods) can be seen as "destroying the environment?" Jkulhlaup are known to have occurred in many glacierized mountain areas and have been documented in the Alps, Alaska, the Canadian Rockies, Karakoram, and Pamir, amongst others. In Iceland, where the actual term jkulhlaup originated, there is a reliable record of destruction of farms and villages extending over several hundred years. Thus, they are not specific to current global warming. [ See: Ives, Mountain Research and Development, 2005, 25 (4): 391-394]

..

Mr. Tek Jung Mahat

Focal Person

E-conference on Climate Change and the Himalaya Glaciers

Date: May 9, 2007

Dear All,

I am notified that experts are preparing answers of the queries raised today. In the mean time, I am just trying to put some facts that answers some of the issues raised Vimal.

MYTH: Climate change is not real and the scientific communities are exaggerating it for their cause

Fact: Please refer the attached file.

MYTH: Global warming cant be happening because some glaciers and ice sheets are growing, not shrinking.

FACT: In most parts of the world, the retreat of glaciers has been dramatic. The best available scientific data indicate that Greenland's massive ice sheet is shrinking.

Source:

Between 1961 and 1997, the worlds glaciers lost 890 cubic miles of ice. The consensus among scientists is that rising air temperatures are the most important factor behind the retreat of glaciers on a global scale over long time periods. Some glaciers in western Norway, Iceland and New Zealand have been expanding during the past few decades. That expansion is a result of regional increases in storm frequency and snowfall rather than colder temperatures not at all incompatible with a global warming trend.

In Greenland, a NASA satellite that can measure the ice mass over the whole continent has found that although there is variation from month to month, over the longer term, the ice is disappearing. In fact, there are worrisome signs that melting is accelerating: glaciers are moving into the ocean twice as fast as a decade ago, and, over time, more and more glaciers have started to accelerate. What is most alarming is the prediction, based on model calculations and historical evidence, that an approximately 5.4 degree Fahrenheit increase in local Greenland temperatures will lead to irreversible meltdown and a sea-level rise of over 20 feet. Since the Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than the global average, this tipping point is not far away.

The only study that has shown increasing ice mass in Greenland only looked at the interior of the ice sheet, not at the edges where melting occurs. This is actually in line with climate model predictions that global warming would lead to a short-term accumulation of ice in the cold interior due to heavier snowfall. (Similarly, scientists have predicted that Antarctica overall will gain ice in the near future due to heavier snowfall.) The scientists who published the study were careful to point out that their results should not be used to conclude that Greenland's ice mass as a whole is growing. In addition, their data suggested that the accumulation of snow in the middle of the continent is likely to decrease over time as global warming continues.

MYTH: Global warming is just part of a natural cycle. The Arctic has warmed up in the past.

FACT: The global warming we are experiencing is not natural. People are causing it.

Source:

People are causing global warming by burning fossil fuels (like oil, coal and natural gas) and cutting down forests. Scientists have shown that these activities are pumping far more CO2 into the atmosphere than was ever released in hundreds of thousands of years. This buildup of CO2 is the biggest cause of global warming. Since 1895, scientists have known that CO2 and other greenhouse gases trap heat and warm the earth. As the warming has intensified over the past three decades, scientific scrutiny has increased along with it. Scientists have considered and ruled out other, natural explanations such as sunlight, volcanic eruptions and cosmic rays. (IPCC 2001)

Though natural amounts of CO2 have varied from 180 to 300 parts per million (ppm), today's CO2 levels are around 380 ppm. That's 25% more than the highest natural levels over the past 650,000 years. Increased CO2 levels have contributed to periods of higher average temperatures throughout that long record. (Boden, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)

As for previous Arctic warming, it is true that there were stretches of warm periods over the Arctic earlier in the 20th century. The limited records available for that time period indicate that the warmth did not affect as many areas or persist from year to year as much as the current warmth. But that episode, however warm it was, is not relevant to the issue at hand. Why? For one, a brief regional trend does not discount a longer global phenomenon.

We know that the planet has been warming over the past several decades and Arctic ice has been melting persistently. And unlike the earlier periods of Arctic warmth, there is no expectation that the current upward trend in Arctic temperatures will reverse; the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will prevent that from happening.

..

Mr. Narayan Dhital

Ph D Student

Laval University

Quebec, Canada

Date: May 9, 2007

Dear All

My name is Narayan Dhital and I was born and brought up in mountainous Kavre district of Nepal. Academically and professionally, I am a forester. I have workedfor more than ten years inNepal and China in the domain of forestry and natural resources management. Most recently, I was working in Tibet in Qomolangma National Nature Preserve whereIhad theopportunity to witness the effects of climate change in the livelihoods of people who live in remote areas and depend on natural resources for their living. Currently I am involved in Doctoral Research on "Impact of Climate warming in growth and productivity of forests".

Most recently, I am also involved in Joint Implementation (JI) activities of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) designed to implement article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol.

In my mind, major indicators of climate change in Himalayan region include but not limited to;

1. Change in timing, intensity and duration of monsoon

2. Melting of glaciers in the Himalayan chain

3. Moving the vegetation upwards to the mountain

Major challenges include

1. Adjusting the seasonal calender of people with the changed monsoon scenario2. Gathering scientific evidences of change in species distribution pattern attributable to climate change3. Design and implementation of long term and short term strategies at local as well as global scale to curb the melting of glaciers as evidenced by series of study4. Adopting low carbon (if not carbon carbon neutral) practices in daily life

Opportunities1. Developing Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects which have the potentials of reducing emissions and providing livelihood opportunities for people

..

Dr. Madan Koirala

Associate Professor

CDES, Tribhuvan University & 1st Vice President, EAN

Presently,Idaho State University, Pocatello

Idaho, USA

Dear All,

My name is Madan Koirala. I am an Associate Professor of Central Department of Env.Sc., Tribhuvan University. My area of interest is Mountain Environment, focussing on ectourism, ecological energetics, biodiversity conservation and livelihood of mountain communities. I am the first Vice President of Environmentalists Association of Nepal, a professional organization of Environmental Science, Environmental Management and Environmental Engineering professionals. Perceiving the impact of Climate change on Himalayan Glaciers, we have attempted to debate on the theme through e-conference.

The participation shown by the valued professionals is really encouraging and appreciating. The background papers are linked with the site and our colleague Tek Jung Mahat is making best effort to find the querries accessed with the relevant professionals or linked with the publication available.

Theh following are the concerns I want to put during the discussion: 1. Mountain communities are being hit by the global climate change and it seems distinct due to the fragility of the mountain ecosystems. A monitoring mechanism with defined indicators need to be set up in the mountain region.

2. Inaccessibility with the development process and limitation of resources need to be considered for the conservation of mountain environment. Age old practices incripted in Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) might be translated in the modern scientific knowledge base for studying the impact of climate change in mountain environment.

3. Bioclimatic factors considered by the mountain communities for assessing the climatic change taken into note by the scientific communities might add on the knowledge base, too...

Ms. Maneesha Rajbhandari

Participatory Knowledge Management and Monitoring

UNDP/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Small Grant Programme Nepal

Greetings to all participants.

I am Maneesha Rajbhandari working in Participatory Knowledge Management and Monitoring project of UNDP/ Global Environment Facility (GEF)-Small Grant Programme Nepal since last 2 yrs. I have aquired Post Graduate Degreein Science andTechnology in Environmental Managementandas wellin Sociology.As climate change is the most concerned issue, I aminterested to know more about climate change affects in Himalayanregion and its impacts in sustainable livelihood of the people. Nepal as mountainous country has always been in verse of threat of melting of ice andglaciar out brust . I hope lots of issueswill beraised in this e-conference

..

Dr. Vishwambhar Prasad Sati

Asso Professor and Head

Department of Geography

Government Post Graduate College

Shivpuri, Madhya Pradesh, India

Phone: 0091 94257 10429

Fax: 0091 7492 401157

Date: May 10, 2007

Dear All,

During last three decades or so, some observations on climate change were observed in the Garhwal Himalaya. The following paras discuss on these observations:

'Before 1980s, the areas located on or above 1600 m, received snowfall during the three months of winter and the rest of regions experienced rainfall during the same time. Presently, the situation is tremendously changed. Even, the areas elevated above 2000 m are not receiving snow fall. The villages above 1600 m, which were remained cover by snow mainly in the months of Dec and Jan before 1980s are rarely experiencing this situation. The entire Garhwal Himalaya experienced dry in the winter season of 2006 and 2007. Western disturbances, which are the main cause of winter rainfall/snowfall in the Western and Central Himalayan regions, could not be effective for occurrence of rainfall/snowfall. The winter season was over. There was a great debate on the climate change in media. The meteorologist and personnel, working in Tehri Dam Project (One of the worlds largest dam) experienced very low level of water in the Tehri dam reservoir. Suddenly, in the mid of February, the entire Garhwal Himalaya experienced heavy rainfall and the highly elevated regions received heavy snowfall on 12-13 February 2007. This off-season precipitation raised several questions about the climate change in this region. This was not only the case. After 1980s there were many uneventful changes observed. In the month of Jan (first week) 1993, the Garhwal Himalaya received unexpected snowfall, which covered the low lying areas of the river valleys even the areas located about 500 m in elevation, first time in the history of the region. These areas remained covered by snow for 3-4 days and 2-3 feet snow was noticed in the low lying areas of the river valleys. A recent study reveals that the world famous glacier Gomukh, the origin of Ganges, is receding considerably due to global warming. The similar situation can be observed in many of the glaciers of the Garhwal Himalaya.

The impact of climate change can be noticed in the temperate region (above 1600 m) where dense oak forests are found. Recently, the oak forests are being invaded by the pine forests (between 1000 to 1600 m) in most of the areas particularly in the south facing slopes. This impact can be noticed in Chakrauta area (Tons valley), Pauri district (Nayar valley), Rudraprayag district (Mandakini valley), Chamoli district (Alaknanda, Nandakini, and Pindar valleys). The impact can also be observed from the fact that musk dears are disappeared from the Nandadevi wild life sanctuary.

The pressure of population on the mid-slopes, valley regions, and dun valley may be one of the causes for change in climate and other related things the this reion. In the mid slope, the expansion of settlements in the forest areas for cultivation of off-season vegetation particularly for potato can be noticed everywhere. Similarly, in the valley regions, agricultural land is being converted into government institutes and commercial buildings. After 1980s, the vast fertile agricultural land of the Dun valley, which was known for its best quality basmati rice, started converting into dense settlements, public and private colonies, and at present, it is difficult to find an agriculture land in this valley.

Though, the climate change is a global phenomenon yet, it can also be noticed in a form of regional variation. As discussed here, the land use pattern is considerably changed in the Garhwal Himalaya and the pressure of population is also high due to high growth of population. The people invaded the wilder areas for economic activities. The tourists have reached in the remote areas of the region. Many sources of water, as the springs, have dried up due to disappearance of oak trees in many of the areas because of invasion of pine trees. The oak trees are able to store water through its roots. Water scarcity in the villages of this region can also be noticed everywhere. The pattern of intra montane mobility is tremendously changed. Earlier, it was practiced for rearing of animals and collection of fodder and firewood in the highlands areas, now the areas are converted into an agricultural land for cultivation of off-season vegetables and medicinal plants. All these factors are considerably contributing inputs for climate change in this region'.

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Mr. Vimal khawas

Associate Fellow

Council for Social Development

New Delhi-110003, India

Tel: 91-11-24615383, 24611700, 24618660, 24692655

Date: May 10, 2007

The mercury is rising in Darjeeling . In one of the most striking revelations of recent times, the Queen of Hills has shown an increase of more than one degree Celsius in its mean annual temperature in the past 100 years. According to Subir Sarkar, the in-charge of North Bengal University weather station, 'hundred years ago, the mean annual temperature of the hill town stood (Darjeeling Town)at 13.45 degrees Celsius; at present it is 14.50. The rise has made both the summers and winters a wee bit warmer. The rise in the hills is twice that of the plains. While the global warming is said to be the main and obvious reason for the rise in the mercury level in the hill town, unplanned urbanisation and depletion of forest cover are two local reasons for the rise in the temperature.' *[Extracted for the report by Anuradha Sharma Lakhotia, "Darjeeling warming up faster than world", The Telegraph: North Bengal and Sikkim, 7 November 2006]*.

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Anil K. Raut

P. O. Box 12362

Kathmandu, NEPAL

Tel: 977-9841233941

Date: May 10, 2007

Hello All:

Though late, let me introduce myself. I am Anil K. Raut, an environmental researcher by training and profession. I am currently working at Winrock International Nepal where I am involved on climate change mitigation, mostly Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project development, climate vulnerability and adaptation studies. However, I am taking up a new position from June 1st at Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba, Japan as Assistant Fellow, to work on global, regional and urban carbon management.

I am particularly interested in climate impact researchin Nepalese context and its possible adaptation measures.

I look forward to learning and discussing many issues with you.

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Mr. Sudeep Devkota

G.P.O. Box. No: 7315,

Gongabu-8, Kathmandu

Ph. No. 0977-01-4357740 (R), 0977-9841419819

Date: May 10, 2007

I am Sudeep Devkota, M.Sc. in Environmental Science, with specialization in Biodiversity and Wildlife Management from Tribhuvan University, Nepal and done extensive research on wetland conservation during my academic years. I have taken some advanced level training in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Environmental Economics, Natural Resource Management (NRM), and Water Quality Assessment, form different National and International institutions.

I have about 5 years working experiences in different developmental organizations, institutions and consulting firms, serving at different level and position. During these years I have worked for Environment Division of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Consolidated Management Services (CMS) P. Ltd., SILT Consults P. Ltd., Clean Environment Nepal P. Ltd. I am serving Environmentalists Association of Nepal (EAN) since 4 years as a 2nd Vice President. Besides these I am also involved in teaching for Graduate students as a Lecturer in Tri-chandra Campus, T.U. and other T.U. affiliated private college.

My areas of expertise are: Wetland Conservation and Management, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Environmental Economics, Water and Soil Quality Assessment, Pollution Control and Management, Climate change, Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Policy.

..

Professor John M. Reynolds, PhD

Managing Director

Reynolds Geo-Sciences Ltd (RGSL)

Independent geological & geophysical consultants

Unit 17, Mold Business Park, Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, CH7 1XP, UK

Tel: +44-(0)1352-756196;Fax: +44-(0)1352-759353

Web: www.geologyuk.com

Date: May 10, 2007

Dear Colleagues,

I am interested to see the discussion that is already beginning in relation to this e-conference.

My interest in the Himalayas began in 1992 in response to the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from Chubung the year before in the Rolwaling Valley, Nepal, and an invitation from the Nepalese Government in 1993 to investigate the situation at Tsho Rolpa, which I was able to do in September 1994 with funding from the British Government. Since then I have been involved in many investigations in Nepal, Bhutan, China, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan with colleagues from my company and various research partners. Details of our work are available on my company's web-site www.geologyuk.com (Glacial Hazards). I acted as the de facto International Technical Adviser on glacial hazards to the Nepalese Government from 1994 to 2000 with particular reference to Tsho Rolpa. We have also been funded by the British Government to research methods of glacial hazard assessment in the Himalayas and Andes in order to be able to apply objective criteria rather than the emotive and subjective criteria that have been used so often. This has resulted in the publication of the first international guidelines on the assessment of glacial hazards (PDF available from our website). Despite these having been published I note that various institutions are promulgating their own lists of so called 'dangerous' glacial lakes without specifying the criteria by which they have been so designated.Some of these lakes are, in my view and on the basis of significant ground-basedinvestigations, not 'dangerous' at present. However, more of this another time. My company is still engaged in remote sensing analysis of glacial lakes in eastern Nepal and especially in relation to Tsho Rolpa with respect to various hydropower feasibility studies. I also undertook, on behalf of the Bhutanese Government, the first detailed glacial hazard assessment of glaciers throughout Bhutan in 1998, building on work already undertaken there by Phunto Norbu and subsequently published in 1999. This review was subsequently updated in 2002. I have undertaken field investigations with colleagues from a number of institutions at Thulagi, Tsho Rolpa and Imja Tsho, and have been involved in reviews of glacial hazards elsewhere in Nepal such as for the Arun III HEP project for the World Bank in 1995, Upper Bhote Kosi, and Upper Tama Kosi HEP Feasibility projects. I also undertook a detailed assessment of glacial hazards using remote sensing throughout the Upper Indus Basin of northern Pakistan.

Some issuesraised already in this e-conference havebeen debated previously in detail through an earlier e-conference through the Mountain Legacy group (October 2006-February 2007) and I do not propose to go over the same ground here.

I believe it is important to concentrate on thetangible issue of the effects of climate change on the glaciers of the Himalayas rather than debating whether or not climate change is anthropogenically induced/affected or not, otherwise the debate will be diverted away from the central theme and potentially nothing of any benefit will be forthcoming from this e-conference.

I very much hope that the central theme will be debated positively so that there will be a meaningful summary ready for World Environment Day on the 5th June.

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Mr. Tek Jung Mahat

ICIMOD

Date: May 10, 2007

Nepal scientists warn of glacier flood threat

A melting glacier

Dambaru Ballab Kattel

25 April 2007

Source: SciDev.Net

Source: http://www.scidev.net/News/index.cfm?fuseaction=readNews&itemid=3575&language=1

Climate scientists in Nepal have warned that poor coordination of research and an inactive early warning system are putting Nepal's people at risk of flooding caused by melting glaciers. Glacial lakes created by melting glaciers can overflow, releasing several thousand cubic metres of water per second along stream channels. These flooding events are called glacier lake outburst floods.

There have been more than 15 of these floods in Nepal, occurring at a frequency of one every two to five years, according to the Nepalese Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).

This has been attributed to global warming, which, according to DHM research, is increasing temperatures in the Nepalese Himalayas by 0.04 degrees Celsius per year.

There are 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 lakes at or above 3,500 metres above sea level in Nepal. Twenty glacier lakes are at risk of bursting due to melting glaciers, according to a 2002 report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the UN Environment Programme.

The situation was discussed at a conference organised by the DHM last month (23 March).

Remote sensing and satellite imaging have been used to identify potentially dangerous lakes, but field studies are limited, according to Pradeep Mool, a remote sensing specialist at ICIMOD.

He added that a lack of coordination and information sharing between researchers and institutions is leading to inadequate documentation and archiving.

Tsho Rolpa is one of the biggest and potentially dangerous glacier lakes in Nepal. Scientists predict that an outburst flood would endanger thousands of lives and cost millions of dollars in economic losses.

The DHM has already established an early warning system consisting of a network of sensors and sirens in 19 villages downstream of Tsho Rolpa.

But according to Om Ratna Bajrachary, senior divisional hydrologist at the DHM, the monitoring system has yet to be put into use because Nepal is concentrating on the establishment of peace after years of internal conflict. "We are planning to revive it," he added.

Glacial lake outburst floods first attracted scientific and government attention when the Dig Tsho glacier in Nepal's Khumbu region flooded in 1985.

The disaster completely destroyed a hydropower plant and washed away agricultural land, bridges and houses over a distance of 42 kilometres.

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Mr. Vimal khawas

Associate Fellow

Council for Social Development

New Delhi-110003, India

Tel: 91-11-24615383, 24611700, 24618660, 24692655

Date: May 10, 2007

On the whole, climate change will have an adverse bearing on interstate and intrastate disputes in Asia over water issues. That in turn could exacerbate or reopen disputes over territories that are either the original source of water or through which major rivers flow, such as Tibet and Jammu and Kashmir. It could also help cast renewed spotlight on China's incorporation of parts of traditional Tibet in the provinces of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. For example, the Yellow, the Yangtze and the Mekong rivers originate in Qinghai, which is the northeastern Amdo region of ethnic Tibet and birthplace of the present Dalai Lama. Given that the Tibet plateau's water resources constitute a lifeline for hundreds of millions of Asians, the retreat of glaciers due to accelerated thawing will have devastating effects downstream. Coastal Chinese cities like Shanghai already are reporting acute water shortages, leaving authorities with only two choices desalinized water or imports of water from the glacier melt on the Tibetan plateau. Tibet's fragile ecosystem, however, is already threatened by China's reckless exploitation of Tibet's vast mineral and water resources.

The Tamil Nadu agriculture minister's proffered solution to his state's water woes the linking of the Ganges with the Cauvery disregards the likely global-warming impact on the Uttarakhand glaciers like Gangotri (India's largest) that feed the Ganges, which supports more than 5% of the world population living in its catchment areas.Increased monsoon precipitation an expected consequence of higher average temperatures could potentially compensate for loss of melt-water from the rapidly thawing Himalayan glaciers if India were to find technical means to harvest and store rainwater on a mammoth scale. It is obvious that if water becomes a factor in interstate and intrastate tensions and increasingly a scarce and precious commodity, economic growth would stall and water wars might follow.

The projected rise of both sea levels and extreme weather events like droughts, hurricanes and monsoon flooding are likely to foster greater interstate and intrastate migration especially of the poor and the vulnerable from delta and coastal regions to the interior regions. Such an economically disruptive relocation would socially swamp inland areas, upsetting the existing ethnic balance and provoking in some regions a backlash that strains local harmony and security.

India, now officially home to some 20 million illegal Bangladeshi settlers, could see an influx of tens of millions of more crossing over an international border too porous to effectively patrol. Such an avalanche of refugees would have a serious bearing on internal cohesion and security. Climate change indeed could imperil the very survival of Bangladesh, a largely delta land that ranks as the world's most densely-populated country with the exception of island-nations and city-states.

In China, climate change could prompt millions of Han Chinese to move from low-lying coastal areas to the sparsely-populated regions of ethnic minorities in the southwest and west. The southwest, with its vast glacially-sourced water resources, is likely to be a magnet. With 60% of its territory comprising traditional homelands of minorities, who today constitute barely 8% of its total population, China has expanded vastly since the time the Great Wall was built as the outer Han security perimeter.

While the rise in sea levels is likely to lead to retreating coasts, those living deep in the interior would suffer increased heat waves, with metastasizing droughts expected to ravage semi-arid areas. The human security is likely to be the main casualty of climate change. Economic disparities in India and China would widen as vulnerable sectors of the economy and low-lying coastal and delta areas suffer a bigger blow. The rise in temperatures could hit the major source of employment agriculture and thereby accelerate movement of the jobless to the already-crowded cities. Also, warmer winters would negatively influence the vector of disease control by making it easier for worm eggs and bugs to survive the cold. Sustainable development is expected to become more challenging than ever.

If there is any good news, it is that the hot air in the enhanced greenhouse conditions would strengthen monsoon circulation and bring increased rainfall of up to 10% to the subcontinent by 2070, but without making monsoons more predictable. As accelerated glacier melt compels India to reduce its reliance on the natural bounty of the Himalayas, it would need to find novel ways to store rainwater for the dry season from the monsoonal bounty.

Given that at best it can be slowed but not stopped, climate change needs to be elevated from the current scientific-firmament discourse toa national-security issue with particular emphasis on humansecurity.

We need to start seriously looking at waysthey can innovate and get along in a climate change- driven paradigm. Itwill become imperative to build greater institutional and organizational capacity, along with efficient water management, early warning systems andnew farm varieties.

[*extracted from: Brahma Chellaney: Climate Change and Asian Security, The Asian Age, February 10, 2007* few points are added by me]

..

Dr. Madan Koirala

Team Leader,

E-conference on Climate Change and the Himalaya Glaciers

Date: May 11, 2007

Dear all,

Citation of the article published in Asian age made by vimal khawas has opened an additional avenue for the recent climage change discourse. Natural and man made disasters is increasing the internally displaced people (IPS) and refugees from the adjoining countries as well. Growing demand of fresh water due to the population growth and commercialization of water (drinking) is adding the pressure. Agencies such as Intergovernental Panel for Climate change (IPCC) and national governments should consider upon the stress on water resources due to the population pressure either through IPS or external refugees. Estimate based studies both on demand and supply side of water focussing in the region (Ganges, Yellow River, Yangtze etc) might help in minimizing the adverse impact of climate change. Let the present discourse chalk out some studies with priority focused in the Himalayan region.

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Mr. Ukesh Bhuju

Director

Conservation at the Nepal Nature dot com

Date: May 12, 2007

Dear All

I am Ukesh Raj Bhuju, Dierctor-Conservation at the Nepal Nature dot Com. My areas of nterests biodiversity conservation, planning and enducation. To the concernes raised by Dr M Koirala, I would like to put some thoughts to be shared with all.

1. It would be more practical to relate the monitoring mechanism proposed by Dr Koirala to the ones developed by Ministry of Forests and soil conservation, National Trust for nature Conservation and also link with the 2010 Targets and Indicators.

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Mr. Sudeep Devkota

G.P.O. Box. No: 7315,

Gongabu-8, Kathmandu

Ph. No. 0977-01-4357740 (R), 0977-9841419819

Date: May 12, 2007

Peoples say that natural curing agents are ocean and trees, which acts as carbon sink.

It is believed that the oceans help moderately in removing the excess CO2 at an average temperature by pumping it into the deep oceans bed from atmosphere, which is the part of global carbon cycle. But it is not well known that whether the ocean can absorb more CO2 or not.

Also, ocean acts as an absorber of heat from atmosphere. The ocean absorbs heat from the atmosphere and transfers some of it to Deep Ocean, where it is stored temporarily. It is assumed that this absorption of it by oceans apparently has delayed part of the warming of the earths atmosphere. But is projected and said that, over the next few decades, this stored heat probably will be released back to the atmosphere and could amplify the global warming. So, the peoples hope of solving the problem of global warming through ocean became failed.

Some scientists suggest giving alternate way of solving a global warming as a trees. They think, trees will mop up CO2, so plantation of trees is to be increase. But, in contrast some scientist does not accept it. So, another hope of man, by this announcement hammered the head realizing that we should not rely on trees for solving the problem of global warming. William Schlesinger at Duke University in North Carolina announces this result.

The global CO2 emissions from sources such as car exhaust and industry are predicted to be double between now and 2050. More CO2 means that trees will grow faster and lock up more carbon. This led to people that plants might mop up all the extra gases.

To find out more, Schlesinger and his colleagues have monitored growth of mature trees in Duke Forest, N. Carolina. They staked out six plots of trees with rings of 32 vertical pipes. Each plot is 30 m in diameter. At three sites, the pipes pump out air enrich with CO2 to mimic condition predicted for 2050, at the other three sites they pump out normal present air. The system monitors CO2 levels with in the ring and adjusts and delivery to maintained the right mix.

The team found that the trees in 2050, atmosphere converted to more CO2 into plant matter locking up 27% more carbon than act the control sites. How ever, even if this extra growth across in existing temperature, forests all over the world in 2050, the trees will only absorb 10% of human generated CO2. The result said that the forest will soak up carbon but the study contradicts those who say they soak up large amounts. And this results throws doubt on nations such as the US, who have carbon sequestration as their only strategy for dealing with the problem of global warming.

The effect is not as large as people had expected. There are still uncertainties as to how much carbon, forest can mop up. As CO2 levels rise the atmosphere will warm, causing much fire in forests and releasing more carbon. Also, the warmer climate speed up breakdown of leaf litter by microbes, releasing yet more CO2 into atmosphere.

Realizing this fact, that we cannot solve the problem of global warming by relying on neither ocean nor trees. Then we must eventually deal with root cause. These includes:

As we know, pollution and emission of CO2 has direct relation with second law of thermodynamics. Because this law tells us two things that:

The output power of any machine is less than input power

The difference is lost in a form of energy, which cannot be recovered without doing work, and this difference is that pollutes.

So to minimize the pollution, the high efficient machine is required which cause less pollution.

Along with increase efficient machine, we have to formulate our plan, policy and law and implementing the following the simple but key points:

By increasing the literacy rate and education about environment and population to the rural people of Least Developed Countries.

Boosting world economy, especially on developing countries.

Using alternative energy that is eco- friendly, which can displace the traditional type of energy that helps in excessive emissions of CO2.

Wasting less energy.

Reducing air pollutions by cutting down the use of fossil fuels and switching to renewable forms of energy.

Harvesting trees more sustainably.

There are a lot of methods and processes to reduce the emission of CO2 and to decrease the CO2 level of atmosphere that we can do both locally and globally.

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Mr. Rabin Sharma

Date: May 12, 2007

Greetings,

I am a global change biologist and so not directly related to your theme which is concerned to the impact of climate change to Himalayan glaciers. However, I am working on the other dimension of the impact and certainly have something to share with the ongoing postings.

Un-informed discourse and media hype

I am more concerned to expert's impact on the credibility of climate change science than on the impact of climate change in the world's ecosystems and glaciers. Just turn around (in Nepal, and possibly in India) and you will see someone who can tell you that such and such are the consequences of global warming. Like any other sciences, it requires rigorous scientific method and peer review before publication. We really need to be informed and inform people that climate change and climatic patterns are two different things. To save our planet from the catastrophic consequences, we need to show strong evidence. Unfortunately, every other person in Nepal is social activist and environmentalist. The people who talk about global warming also demand a ban on the use of plastic bag as they perceive plastic as one of the biggest environmental problems.

Every undesirable phenomenon is not the result of climate change. We have various organizations in Nepal who are, however, constantly working on these issues and they immediately issue a press release that global warming is causing such and such things. Even though we cannot prove experimentally globally warming is causing this (because we lack control) we can certainly link them if we have huge and credible data set and if we perform required analysis. I am very uncomfortable with the various organizations' bulletin where they disclose their "science". Now comes the role of mass media which is always searching for some "interesting" news stories. When they have a range, they tend to pick the extreme one. This media hype catches everyone's attention. It is less likely that the extreme effects come true even when there is an effect. This generates public mistrust in science and fuels arguments rather than generating consensus. On the top of that, mass media in Nepal generally lack a sense to distinguish science from pseudoscience because they lack a science editor who has a rigorous training of scientific research and who knows what a "scientific method" is.

Source of information

I can fairly assume that this group of experts is supposed to discuss hard-core science within their scope. Worldwide, such sciences are published in peer-reviewed journals (although there exist other types of publications which are also peer reviewed, such as IPCC report) as it is the gold-standard of scholarly publication. Unfortunately, apart from our introduction, most of our postings are "copy and paste" from mass media. We are listening and learning from mass media. Isn't it that it should be the other way around?

Reply/comment to Netra and Keshav

Netra Osti from NARC suggests that methane emissions from animal farming can potentially enhance global warming. Although methane is a highly potent GHG (25-70 times more potent than CO2), it is released to air in a very minute fraction as compared to CO2. So, we really need a rigorous quantitative analysis to find out if the current practice of animal farming is making any meaningful contribution to global warming.

In response to Netra's posting, Keshav from Forum for Justice writes: "Not only that, agricultural and waste sectors are also contributing to methane emissions with rice cultivation and enteric fermentation. These sector share emissions of methane in the largest figure than from other emission sources in the country." The first report on plant as a source of methane was published in Nature last year (I have attached the paper if you would want to see it). Immediately after it was published, the claim that plants may contribute upto 40% in the total methane emission was highly controversial (please note that even if the plants emit that much fraction of methane, they cannot be necessarily attributable to global warming as they have always been there in the planet; in fact, the author of the Nature paper had to issue a press release after his paper was mistakenly cited worldwide to blame plants for global warming). The rule of thumb is that we cannot make generalizations based on single or few studies. A new study published in the current issue of New Phytologist shows evidence that plants are not the source of methane (I have attached a news story on the paper). Anyway, it is too early to say anything about it.

Climate change is an extremely important issue. Whereas other sciences are mostly concerned with improving our way of life, global change is concerned about if we continue to exist or not. As the issue has several dimensions including politics, experts have extended role to perform. For instance, we can talk about irrefutable evidences of climate change and make pressure to related institutions, government bodies and public to act wisely.

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Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha

Assistant Professor

Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering

Kathmandu University

Dhulikhel, Kavre

P.O. Box 6250 Kathmandu, NEPAL

Phone: 977 11 661399 Ext. 189

Fax: 977 11 661443

URL: http://www.ku.edu.np/env/Brief_CV-Rijan.doc

Email: rijan@ku.edu.np

Date: May 12, 2007

Dear participants,

Hello!

It is better to concentrate on the theme of the first part of the e-conference than to discuss more about other. In this regard, I have attached a table consisting of rate of retreat of glacier terminus in the Nepalese Himalayas.

Also, I have attached a figure of my published paper (below) which showed variations in the calculated discharge in the Langtang and Lirung Khola basins in the Langtang valley. It is clear from the figure that the discharge from both basins is increased after 1995 considerably as air temperature increased although the precipitation amount did not change much. It implies that the mass of snow and ice in both basins is depleting (due to warming). (Use of positive degree-day methods for calculating snow and ice melting and discharge from glacierized basins in the Langtang Valley, central Nepal. Kayastha, R. B., Y. Ageta and K. Fujita (2005). In: Carmen de Jong, D. Collins and R. Ranzi (eds) Climate and Hydrology in Mountain Areas, John Wiley, Chichester, 7-14.)

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Mr. B K Dalit

President,Team for Nature and Wildife(TNW)Nepal

Ambassador, Society for Conservation Biology Social Science Working

Group(SCB SSWG) USA

Date: May 14, 2007

Dear All highly respected participants,

I am President of Team for Nature and Wildlife(TNW) Nepal, an NGO of youths working in nature conservation. We have mainly been involving youths of various educational background on environmental conservation efforts.

I want to have an answer of a simple question regarding snowing in Kathmandu after nearly 80 years. We hear that world is getting warmer day by day due to climate change. But, In Kathmandu, we saw snowing. Is there any link between the climate change impacts on our Himalayas and recent snowing in Kathmandu?

Another thing, we have been coming to know that Mt.Everest is more likely to face grave problems due to the threat. Is it really true geographically that climate change could melt and collapse Mt. Everest, which is our only magi khane bhado (our only pot being used to fill the stomach)? The news had once spread everywhere that climbers and conservationists were asking the United Nations to place Mount Everest on a danger list because its snows are retreating rapidly as a result of climate change. Reinhold Messner, a mountaineering legend had once pleaded at a news conference to allow only one expedition on Everest per route each season to save the Mt. Everest from this threat. Some years back, Chinese scientists had discovered the fact that the height of Mt. Everest is increased by 2 meters to 8850 meters. But to contrary, some continue arguing that Mt. Everest is going to be depleted slowly.What is it? Some say Mt.Everst is going up and some say going down? This has created a sense of confusion amongst people.

I want to be clear from the climate scientists about this fact.

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Mr. Laxman Belbase

Pro Public

Date: May 15, 2007

Dear sir,

This email is in the response to your email regarding the threaton Mt. Everest due to global warming.

In November 2004 Pro Public filed petition in the UNESCO to list Sagarmatha National Park in the list of indanger requering UNESCO and member statenation to initiate mitigation measures including reduction of green house gas emission to protect significant parts of the worlds which are listed in the world heritage sites.

Sagarmatha National Park is dominated by Mount Everest/Sagarmatha, the highest peak in the world (8,848 m), as well as hosting several rare species, such as the snow leopard and the lesser panda, and being home to the Sherpas, with their unique culture. Himalayan glaciers have been in retreat for decades and a resulting hazard is the formation of many glacial lakes at risk from outburst flood. One study has identified 13 of these lakes in the Park. The lead petitioner is Forum for the Protection of Public Interest (Pro Public), part of Friends of the Earth International. Co-petitioners include record-holding Everest climbers Pemba Dorjee Sherpa and Temba Tsheri Sherpa, as well as Sir David Attenborough, Sir Chris Bonington, Reinhold Messner and Stephen Venables.

From this we can say thatit isreally true geographically that climate change could melt the whole snow on Mt. Everest, which is , in your language one of our our only magi khane bhado (our only pot being used to fill the stomach). That is why Reinhold Messner, a mountaineering legend had pleaded at a news conference to allow only one expedition on Everest per route each season to save the Mt. Everest from this threat. In addition, as we all know that, very recently the IPCCC has also confirmed that the climate change is due to the anthropogenic cause ie the man made ghg emission.

We arealso happy to inform you allthat the petition Pro Public filed in the World Heritage committee of UNESCO hasmotivated UNESCO to carry research on impact of global warming in the world hertitage sites all over the world. The World Heritage Committee also ask to World Heritage Center to bring this issue for discussion in coming General Assembly meeting of UNESCO.

But regarding the height of Mt. Everest, we cannot say anything as this is completely a technical matter of measuring the height by the various experts and it hasn't been verified by anyone yet.

Petition link; http://www.climatelaw.org/media/UNESCO.petitions.release

..

Dr. Narayan Chaulagain

Project Promotion Manager

People, Energy & Environment Development Association (PEEDA)

Bhanimandal, Ekantakuna, Lalitpur

P.O.Box 8975, EPC 2157

Tel. 00977-1-5530337, 5540792,

Fax: 00977-1-5529873

Dear all,

I am sending you very brief information on my dissertation Impacts of climate change on water resources of Nepal: The physical and socio-economic dimension including its abstract and the links to download full dissertation.

As my dissertation by its nature itself is an interdisciplinary, I tried to address the issues both from natural science as well as social science point of view. One of the findings of my dissertation tries to quantify the impacts of warming on the glacier extent (estimated life of ice reserve with different temperature increase scenarios from 0.03 deg C/ year to 0.15 deg C/ year of all glaciers in the Nepal Himalayas), glacier-melt water and hydropower potential of Nepal on the basis of inventory of glaciers prepared by ICIMOD. Hypothetical glacier mass balance rates for different temperature increase rates were calculated in the Langtang Valley with 24 glaciers and applied to all glaciers (3252 glaciers) in the Nepal Himalaya. Out of the 19 rivers basins (ICIMOD glacier inventory study reported that all Nepalese glaciers are located within 19 river basins of Nepal), Indrawati would be the first river basin to become glacier-free whether Tamor would be last river basin having the last glacier of Nepal. I calculated the possible impacts on the hydropower potential as well as according to different temperature change scenarios and findings show that hydropower potential will increase as the temperature increases and will decrease later on when the glaciers disappear. The time when the hydropower potential reaches its maximum depends on the temperature increase rate. The details of the findings could be found in the dissertation, which can be freely downloaded from the link below.

www.zhb-flensburg.de/dissert/chaulagain/Dissertation-Chaulagain.pdf

The dissertation has been also recently published by Shaker Publishing. Therefore, even hard copy of the dissertation as a book also can be ordered from Shaker Publishing, Germany. The details for ordering hard copy can be found below:

http://www.shaker.eu/Catalogue/details.asp?ID=2104800&CC=23073&ISBN=3-8322-6091-9

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Mr. Samujjawal Shrestha

Moderator

First week, Econference on Climate Change and the Himalayan Glaciers

Date: May 16, 2007

There is no debate!

Global climate change is a natural phenomenon; has commonly been attributed to continental drift, variations in the earths axis and orbital variations, variations in solar energy output and variations in the frequency of volcanic activity. The rise and fall in the amounts of solar energy impinging on the earth (particularly in the far north during summer) is mainly determined by the earths orbit (eccentricity, obliquity and precession) and is a major driving mechanism behind climate change (Milankovitch 1920). When the earths surface receives more solar energy, the planet warms up due to a positive feedback mechanism.

Temperature rise

The greenhouse gases trap outgoing radiation and redirect it back to the surface causing warming. The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is likely the most significant factor affecting global climate change. IPCC (2007) reported that the global atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range (180 to 300 ppm) over the last 650,000 years as determined from ice cores. The annual CO2 concentration rate was greater during the last 10 years (19952005 average: 1.9 ppm per year) than it has been since the beginning of continuous atmospheric measurements (19602005 average: 1.4 ppm per year) although there is year-to-year variability in growth rates (IPCC 2007).

The rise in temperature of atmosphere directly linked with the concentration of CO2 in atmosphere best illustrated by Keeling Curve.

Fact: Himalayan Glaciers Retreating

Due to glacier retreat and shrunk, it may breakdown and increases in number but the total area is decreased.

The numbering of the glaciers is based on the methodology of Muller 1977. For more information, please refer Muller et al. 1977 or the inventory of glaciers. report published by ICIMOD in 2001.

Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya

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Dr, Arun B. Shrestha, Ph. D.

Moderator, Econference on Climate Change and the Himalayan Glaciers

Climate Change Specialist

Water, Hazard and Environmental Management

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Po Box 3226

Fax: +977-1-5003299

Tel: +977-1-5003222

URL:

" http://www.icimod.org

Date: May 16, 2007

Dear Colleagues,

I am pleased to have an opportunity to moderate the 1st session of the ongoing e-conference on climate change and the Himalayan glaciers. After receiving around two dozen queries on the theme of the e-conference, the organizing committee has cauterized all the queries as following;

1. Impacts of climate change seen in the glacial environment in the region (GENERAL)

2. Climate change in the region: What is caused locally and what is contributed by the global processes? (SREEDHAR)

3. Do you have proper record of extreme events related to climate change in the region? (SREEDHAR)

4. What are the coping measures to tackle the glacial hazards? (SREEDHAR)

5. There is a long list of scientists opposing the fact of global warming and some issues like global dimming are coming in. Some people also believe that global warming is a result of solar activity. In this context, is global warming real? (VIMAL)

6. Is Hollywoodisation of global warming is happening in real? (VIMAL)

7. As many parts of the Himalaya are experiencing glacial melt, some parts in the region (esp. Upper Indus) are receiving more glaciers, why? Some people argue that "Glaciers are the most sensitive parameters of temperature change, both positive and negative. However, global warming is not the reason of glacial retreat. Is the statement true? (VIMAL)

8. Is there any studies focusing on impact of glacial melt on Himalayan Rivers? If yes what are the major finding? (RIPENDRA)

9. Clarification: I note that various institutions are promulgating their own lists of so called 'dangerous' glacial lakes without specifying the criteria by which they have been so designated. Some of these lakes are, in my view and on the basis of significant ground-based investigations, not 'dangerous' at present. (JOHN)

10. Climate change and Human security (VIMAL)

11. I want to have an answer of a simple question regarding snowing in Kathmandu after nearly 80 years. We hear that world is getting warmer day by day due to climate change. But, In Kathmandu, we saw snowing. Is there any link between the climate change impacts on our Himalayas and recent snowing in Kathmandu? (B. K. DALIT)

Considering these facts and keeping the theme of the e-conference in focus I have tried to answer the queries raised by the discussants.

Climate change is a systematic change that can be projected happens over a long period of time. Some evidences as mentioned by Mr. Dalit (about snowfall in Kathmandu) alone are not enough to say climate is changing and those events are the witness of change. It certainly was a very peculiar event which happened after 60 years but can it be linked to climate change? What is meteorological background of that event? We don not know yet.The global average temperature increased by 0.74 C (0.07 C per decade) in last 100 years (1906 to 2005). The warming in the last 50 years was almost twice (0.13 C per decade) that for the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). Eleven of the warmest years in this period occurred since 1990, with 2005 the warmest on record. The CO2 level in the atmosphere hit 385 ppm last summer, a level never reached in the climate history of past 650 thousand years (e.g. Siegenthale et al., 2005) . The Earth may be going through the warmest phase in the same period of the time. It is no doubt that the earth has undergone through dramatic warm and cold phases in the past, but all of these climatic shifts were natural mainly due to Earths orbital changes. There are enough evidences that attribute the contemporary climate change to increased greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels combustion. While there are still some scientists opposing human cause behind the warming trends, more and more scientific findings support that the warming is caused by human interference to the atmosphere. We know that the energy from sun has remained almost stable in past 50 years and simulation by climate models including only natural forcing do not agree with the observations.

Climate change is not limited to political boundaries or to countries emitting more GHG into the atmosphere. In fact, many of the countries emitting very low GHG are bearing the hardest impacts of climate change. LDC sand SIDS are hardest hit by climate change impacts due to specific geo-environmental sensitivity of these countries as well as due to low coping capacities of these countries. These countries have to be more proactive in their adaptation strategies.

The mountainous regions are experiencing more rapid warming compared to other areas. The warming in the Himalayas has been much higher than the global average warming rates. For example, warming in Nepal was 0.6 C per decade between (1977 and 2000 updated after Shrestha et al., 1999). Similarly, the Tibetan Plateau experienced warming of 0.15 C per decade between 1955 and 1995. Warming in Nepal and Tibet has been progressively greater with elevation (Shrestha et al, 1999; Liu and Chen, 2000). There are already some visible impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Glacial retreat, Glacial lake outburst floods, permafrost degradation are some of the tangible impacts of climate change in the region. Some of the potential impacts are change in freshwater regime, forest ecosystem, biodiversity, agriculture and food production, human health, tourism and infrastructure.

Widespread deglaciation in the Himalayas have been widely documented. Many of the glacial observation in the region is still limited to terminus position survey of ground photographic and statellite imagery based record of terminus position. These observations provide enough evidence that the glaciers in the Himalayas are shrinking at an alarming rate (see. Discussion by Rijan Kayastha; WWF 2005). The limited mass balance measurements support this. According to the compilation of global mass balance studies by Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) the glacial mass balance is more negative in the Himalayas compared to other glaciated regions of the world. Base on these studies some scientist and many media suggest that the Himalayan glacier will in some decades vanish. Considering the complexity of the glacial environment and its interaction with different climatic variables, the forum has not found enough evidence to support such ideas and suggests the readers to take such suggestions with caution. Although spatially limited there are some evidences of glacial advances. High altitude glaciers in the Karakoram have been advancing in recent decades (Hewitt, 2005). Due to lack of high altitude observatories there is not much information on the climatic trends in the region and the glacial advance could be redistribution of ice-mass as a response to change in thermal regime. The Karakoram evidence does support the necessity to recognize diversity in response of Himalayan glaciers to global climate change.

While impact of Himalayan deglaciation can be far reaching the most discussed impacts are two: changes in the freshwater flow and increase and increase in extreme events including GLOFs. Among these the second impact is perhaps the most clear and widely accepted, whereas there is still a lot of gap in scientific understanding of the impact on freshwater flow and therefore there is a division among scientist particularly in the question of when? and how much? Again there are a large number of scientists propagating the view of catastrophic water shortage in Asia.

There are a lot of uncertainties about the rate and magnitude of climate change and potential impacts. For us, particularly those living this fragile landscape, rather than debating on the reality of climate change it would be wise to concentrate on tangible impacts (see discussion by J. Reynolds). We have to base our thinking on what we already know and what is likely to happen in the future and take policy of preparedness rather than wait and see. There is certainly a need to fill the gaps in scientific understanding. We need a better understanding of future climate change scenarios and its potential impacts in the Himalayan environment. Monitoring and observation has to strengthened in the region. The response of glacial environment to the project changes and resulting changes in the hydrological regime of the region need better understanding. The glacial lakes are other important area demanding attention. Rather than debating on the criteria for identifying potential dangerous lakes, we should concentrate on systematic study of these lakes. The issue of increasing glacier number has been responded by Samjwol Bajracharya. Remote sensing based studies have to be substantiated by field based studies. Local capacity building is a must. Emerging technologies have to be transferred to the region and capacity of local institutions and professionals have to be enhanced in conducting scientific studies. The next step is to prepare adaptation measure for those dangerous lakes and planned implementation of those measures. There are other sectors (e.g, agriculture, forests, human health) which need studies and adaptation planning, but discussion one these is out of our scope. But the most important fact is that there should be a link between science and policy in climate change. While, good science can lead to good policies, sound policy formulation can foster scientific research.

References:Dyurgerov, M.D. and Meier, M.F., 2005. Glaciers and Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapsot. Occaisonal paper No. 58, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.

Hewitt, K., 2005. The Karakoram anamoly? Gacier expansion and the 'elevation effect,' Karakoram Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25: 332-340.IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis. Summary for Policymakers (Summary for policymakers), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Liu, X. and Chen, B., 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1729-1742.

Siegenthaler, U. et al., 2005. Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late pleistocene. Science, 310: 1313-1317.

Shrestha, A.B., Wake, C.P., Mayewski, P.A. and Dibb, J.E., 1999. Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971-94. Journal of Climate, 12: 2775-2787.

WWF, 2005. An overview of glaciers, glacier retreat and its subsequent impacts in the Nepal, India nd China, WWF-Nepal, Kathmandu.

Lastly, I thank you all for participating in the first session of the e-conference. I hope and look forward to share knowledge with you even beyond conference.

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