· title: growth rate of indian spices industries: past trend and future prospects author:...

Sarangi & Singh, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences and Technology 2(1), Oct- 2014(ISSN -2347-5005)

29

Growth Rate of Indian Spices Exports:Past Trend and Future Prospects

Pradeepta K. Sarangi Shreya SinghAsst. Professor HR Executive

Apeejay Institute of Technology- Greater Noida Overdrive Electronics Pvt. Ltd., [email protected]

Abstract: Spices have been in demand for ever and also have been a source of foreign currencies for

exporters. India has grabbed this opportunity and has emerged as one of the major exporters of spices

products. This study analyzes the export trend for the past years and makes an attempt to projects the

values for future years for Indian spices industry. Graphical analysis with linear trend line has been

used to predict the future prospects, growth prediction and export of Indian spices products.

Keywords: Indian Spices Export, Past trend, Future prospects, Graphical Analysis

I INTRODUCTION

India is one of the key exporters of spices products. The US is the major importer followed by China and

other countries. During the year 2012-13, exports to the US was of US$ 351.6 million followed by to China

of US$ 335.39 million[1]. The export of the basic agricultural commodities by developing countries can be

relied upon to earn valuable foreign exchange due to the ever demand of spices. Indian brands have yet to

find markets beyond middle-class and ethnic populations. Indian spices exports have gained value

realisation despite very small growth in volumes[2]. However, Marketing problems are more frequently

faced by growers and exporters mainly due to failure in establishing market linkages rather than lack of

market opportunities [3].

II NEED OF THE STUDY

Knowing the future demand helps any industry/sector to make better planning and infrastructure

management. Spices industry is one of the such areas where advance planning plays a major and effective

role. Graphical method is one of the oldest, popular and easy to use method for getting future trends for

time series data. Sarangi et al. [4] have used this method to predict the future trend for Indian automobile

industry..

III OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study is to analyzes the export trend for the past years and to find out the

forecasted values for the export of Indian spices products. This study uses secondary (historical) data

collected from the website of Spices Board of India (export quantity data) for the period 2005-06 to

2012-13 available online at “http://www.indianspices.com”. Though, India exports more that fifteen


30

categories of spices products, here in this study only six categories have been discussed to keep the study

simple.

IV IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The collected data have been preprocessed and grouped. Graphical method has been used to study the

time series data and to find the forecasted values. For each of the products, a graph has been plotted in

Microsoft Excel using the historical time series data for the year 2005-06 to 2012-13. A trend line is drawn

and then it is extrapolated to find the forecasted values for the period 2013-14 and 2014-15. Six spices

products such as Pepper, Cardamom (small), Cardamom (large), Chilli, Ginger and Turmeric have been

taken into consideration in this study.

A. Analysis of PepperThe historical data of export quantity of pepper from the period 2005-06 to 2012-13 is given in figure-1

below. A graph is plotted in Microsoft Excel using the historical time series data and extrapolated with the

linear trend line. Finally the forecasted values for the period 2013-14 and 2014-15 have been calculated.

Years Export Quantity(Tonnes)2005-06 17,3632006-07 28,7262007-08 35,0002008-09 25,2502009-10 19,7502010-11 18,8502011-12 26,7002012-13 16,000

Fig. 1 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Pepper

In the figure above, the curved line represents the graph and the straight line moving downward representsthe trend line. Similar approach has been used to draw the graph and trend line for all other productsdiscussed in this study.

TABLE 1FORECASTED VALUES: PEPPER

Sl.No. Years Forecasted Values

9 2013-14 19,000

10 2014-15 18,000


31

The graph indicates that, the export of pepper initially increases till the year 2007-08 and then follows a

sharp decline till 2010-11. After 20110-11, the export increases and again decreases in 2012-13. However,

the analysis shows an increase in export of pepper for the year 2013-14 and a decrease in quantity for the

year 2014-15. The fore casted values for the period 2013-14 2014-15 is given in table below.

B. Analysis of Cardamom (small)

The historical data and the graphical representation with trend line from the period 2005-06 to 2011-13 isgiven in figure-2 below.

Years Export Quantity(Tonnes)2005-06 8632006-07 6552007-08 5002008-09 7502009-10 19752010-11 11752011-12 46502012-13 2250

Fig.2 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Cardamom(small)

In the graph above, the curved line indicates the actual values (2005-06 to 2012-13) and the straight lineindicates the trend line. In X-axis the values represent year and in Y-axis the values represent exportquantity. The forecasted values for the period 2013-14 2014-15 are given in Table-2 below

TABLE 2FORECASTED VALUE: CARDAMOM(SMALL)

C. Analysis of Cardamom (large)The historical data and the graphical representation with trend line from the period 2005-06 to 2011-13 isgiven in figure-3 below.


Fig. 3 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Cardamom(large)


9 2013-14 3500

10 2014-15 3700


32

The export quantity graph for the product Cardamom(large) follows a zig-zag path showing an

inconsistency in export quantity. The similar pattern is also observed in case of future trend. The forecasted

values for the period 2013-14 2014-15 is given in table 3 below.

TABLE 3FORECASTED VALUE: CARDAMOM(LARGE)

D. Analysis of ChilliThe historical data and the graphical representation with trend line from the period 2005-06 to 2011-13 isgiven in figure-4 below.

Years Export Quantity(Tonnes)2005-06 1131742006-07 1490222007-08 2090002008-09 1880002009-10 204002010-11 240,0002011-12 241,0002012-13 281,000

Fig. 4 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Chilli

In the graph above, the curved line indicates the actual values (2005-06 to 2012-13) and the straight line

indicates the trend line. In X-axis the values represent year and in Y-axis the values represent export

quantity. The graph indicates that during the year 2009-10 the export of Chilli has drastically decreased to a

lowest value of 20400 in the series. However, in the immediate next year the export has again increased

unexpectedly. The upward movement of the trend line signifies an in increase in the export quantity for

the year 2013-14 & 2014-15. The forecasted values for these period are given in table 4 below

TABLE 4FORECASTED VALUE: CHILLI


9 2013-14 925

10 2014-15 850


9 2013-14 260,000

10 2014-15 285,000


33

E. Analysis of GingerThe historical data and the graphical representation with trend line from the period 2005-06 to 2011-13 isgiven in figure-5 below.


Fig. 5 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Ginger

The graph indicates that, till the year 2008-09 the export of Ginger was decreasing year by year and after

2009-10, it suddenly gets accelerated and reaches the highest ever. However, towards the year 2011-12 it

starts declining. The analysis shows an increase in quantity for the year 2013-14 and then a decline for the

year 2014-15. The forecasted values for the period 2013-14 2014-15 is given in table 5 below.

TABLE 5FORECASTED VALUE : GINGER

F. Analysis of TurmericThe historical data and the graphical representation with trend line from the period 2005-06 to 2011-13 isgiven in figure-6 below.

Years Export Quantity(Tonnes)2005-06 46,4052006-07 517122007-08 492502008-09 52,5002009-10 507502010-11 492502011-12 795002012-13 80,050

Fig.6 Historical Data and the Graphical Representation with Trend line: Turmeric

SI.No. Year Forecasted Values

9 2013-14 200500

10 2014-15 220500


34

The graph indicates a flat movement of the export of turmeric till the year 2010-11. After 2010-11, the

export increases sharply indicating an upward trend for the year 2013-14 and 2014-15. The forecasted

values for the period 2013-14 2014-15 is given in the table below 6.

TABLE 6FORECASTED VALUE: TURMERIC

V CONCLUSION

This study has made an attempt to study and analyze the past trend of products of Indian spices industry.

The Graphical method has been used to find the future prospects. Analysis of past trend implies the the

spices industry has passed through an inconsistency growth. Though, growth has been obtained still the

uncertainty can not be neglected. The forecasted values calculate by Graphical method indicate a growth for

the industry in the coming years. Finally, this study is purely the results of authors experiment. It does not

comment or complement any other reports published by any authority,organization or researchers.

REFERENCES

[1] http://www.ibef.org/exports/spice-industry-indias.aspx

[2] Punnathara, C. J., “Spices exports surge by 47%”,http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/spices-exports-surge-by-47/article3154956.ece.

[3] Rohatash, K. B., B. K. Sikka, A. Singh, M. L. Sharma, N. K. Singh, “Challenges and Constraints of Marketing and Export ofIndian Spices in India”, International Conference on Technology and Business Management, March 28-30, 2011.

[4] Sarangi, P. K., S. Bano and M. Pant, "Future Trend in Indian Automobile Industry: A Statistical Approach", Apeejay-Journal ofManagement Sciences and Technology, Vol. 2 (1), Feb -2014.


9 2013-14 76000

10 2014-15 84000

· title: growth rate of indian spices industries: past trend and future prospects author:...

Documents