© oecd/iea 2015 energy efficiency today: mobilizing investment through markets and multiple...
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© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy Efficiency Today:Mobilizing investment through Markets and Multiple Benefits
Tyler BryantInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy efficiency is huge opportunity going unrealised
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035 unless policy activity increases
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Getting to 2 degrees: Doubling the rate of improvement in energy intensity
1982-1991 1992-2001 2002-2011 2012-2020 (450 ppm)
2021-2030 (450 ppm)
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
World
OECD
Non-OECD
Ave
rage a
nnual ch
ange in e
nerg
y in
-te
nsi
ty
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Cumulative Investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2014-2035
Spending on energy efficiency is $6 trillion higher in the 450 (2DS) scenario
10 20 30 40 50 60Trillion dollars (2012)
22 6 11450 Scenario
26 7 7New Policies Scenario
Fossil fuels Power T&D Low-carbon
14
8
Energy Efficiency
WEO 2013 Special Report
Long term investment landscape for 2 degrees
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Mobilizing investment in energy efficiency: The IEA’s strategy
Current program of work includes (but not limited to): • World Energy Outlook • Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies• Energy Efficiency Market Report (EEMR)• Multiple Benefits of Energy efficiency• Energy Technology Perspectives
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EE generates multiple benefits
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Optimising energy delivery
Benefits for utilities: in resource-constrained operating context Benefits for consumers (indirect benefits for utilities): increased
affordability reduces customer default and associated costs
Supporting a changing business model
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Boosting industrial productivity
Competitiveness Ability to enter new markets; reduced production costs etc.
Production Capacity utilisation; improved product quality etc.
Operations and maintenance
Improved operation; reduced need for maintenance etc.
Working environment Site environmental quality; worker health and safety etc.
Environment Air pollution; solid waste; wastewater; reduced input materials etc.
Generating strategic value for businesses
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Boosting industrial productivity
Example: Glassware company involved in Ikea’s supply chain energy
efficiency programme
Output of one product increased from 900 to 1,050 pieces and the quality rate increased from 75 to 80 percent
Output for another product output increased from 1,200 to 1,350 pieces which reduced the product cost by 12.5 %.
The initiative reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 35% between 2009 and 2010
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Energy efficiency: Warmth as healthcare
Carefully executed energy efficiency can deliver USD 99 billonin annual savings for Europe’s public health sector by 2020
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Macroeconomic impacts
Moving away from the traditional view that economic performance is always linked to increased energy consumption
– the reverse can also be true!
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Energy efficiency can help drive economic prosperity
Cumulative investments in energy efficiency of $12 trillion are more than offsetby fuel savings & trigger economic growth of a cumulative $18 trillion
GDP in Efficient World Scenario versus New Policies Scenario, 2035
1%
2%
3%
4%
Japan & Korea OECD Europe United States China India
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Energy Efficiency Market Report 2015
Available to download for free at:http://www.iea.org/bookshop/709-Energy_Efficiency_Market_Report_2015
Focus of the 2015 edition:
The multiple benefits of energy efficiency investments
Buildings efficiency market
Relationship between energy efficiency and electricity markets
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1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%Decomposition of Total Final Consumption (TFC) in IEA countries, 1990-2014
Energy efficiency is driving sustainable growth
Economic growth is pulling demand up
Total energy consumption is
declining
Structural change is having some impact
Energy efficiency is responsible for two thirds of downward pressure on consumption
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EE generates multiple benefits
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0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Avoided con-sump-tion
EJ
Avoided consumption generated by energy efficiency increased by 10% in 2014
10%
Avoided TFC in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990
Avoided consumption topped 22 EJ (520 Mtoe) in 2014
Consumers saved USD 550 billion in 2014; USD 5.7 trillion since 1990
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IEA consumers are saving hundreds of billions of dollars each year
IEA countries saved USD 550 billion in 2014 as a result of energy efficiency investments since 1990
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
USD
bill
ion (
2014)
Cumulative savings = USD 5.7 trillion
Avoided expenditure in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990
Annual savings are greater than the EU’s fuel import bill
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In 2014, IEA countries avoided primary energy imports totalling 190 Mtoe, saving USD 80 billion in energy import bills and improving trade balances
Germany Japan UK France US IEA 0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Import bill (right-axis)
Mto
e
Avoided imports in 2014, as a result of energy efficiency investments in IEA countries since 1990
Efficiency’s domestic production substitutes for fuel imports
Domestically produced, efficiency supports energy security
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Energy efficiency investments since 1990 have helped to reduce IEA country emissions to below 1996 levels
In 2014 alone, 870 Mt CO2 were avoided
Almost one year’s worth of end-use sector emissions have been avoided by efficiency investments since 1990 in IEA countries
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Emissions sav-ings
Se-ries1
GtC
O2
Cumulative savings = 10.2 GtCO2
A clean energy source, efficiency reduces emissions
IEA emissions from fossil fuel combustion and emissions savings from energy efficiency investments since 1990
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ELECTRICITY: Energy efficiency investments have helped stall the growth of electricity demand in IEA countries
IEA countries saved 2 200 TWh in 2014 from energy efficiency improvements since 1990, 24% of total electricity demand,
Hypothetical savings in electricity consumption from energy efficiency improvements in IEA countries, 1990-2014
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
SavingsElectric-ity con-sump-tion
TW
h
3% Growth
2% Decline
Low growth is pushing various energy utilities to shift from traditional generation to sale of energy efficiency services
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ELECTRICITY: Efficiency challenging business models of many utilities but investment in efficiency expected to continue
Actual share of renewable electricity generation in select countries in 2012, with adjusted share in the absence of energy efficiency improvements since 2001
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Australia France Germany Netherlands Sweden UK
GWh
Share of renewable electricity production Share of renewables with no energy efficiency Additional generation needed to maintain share (right-axis)
Energy efficiency is facilitating the achievement of renewables targets by decreasing the amount of additional GWh required
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The multiple benefits approachThree key recommendations: Apply the multiple benefits approach to energy efficiency
policy development Consider which benefits are relevant in country context
Pay more attention to impact assessment; take an innovative approach Engage a range of stakeholders; community level experts Adapt existing tools to capture hard-to-measure impacts
Build consensus on methods for data collection and assessment so that results are comparable across countries and experience can be meaningfully shared
