دلاوف عماج حرط شیاپ · water, electricity,gas supply construction extraction of...
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پایش طرح جامع فوالد
د صنعت فوالعارضه های واکاوی
درمسیر توسعه
Iran Steel Chain 1397 (2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Iron ore Iron oreConcentrate
Pellet DRI Crude steel
52.448.2
32.6 33.9
92.2
45.241.5
26.4 24.7
8.85.5
2.8 0.55.5
Mill
ion
to
ns
Nominal Capacity
Production
Export
Estimation of the country steel chain – End of 1398(2019)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Iron oreConcentrate
Pellet DRI Crude steel Required IronOre
59.053.3
36.4 37.9
48.841.8
29.326.3
94.2
Mill
ion
to
ns
Capacity Estimate
Production Estimate
Production numbers are estimated based on eight months of production.Capacity numbers are estimated based on the percentage of progress of ongoing projects.
38 40
56 57
90
1710
25 23
40
55 50
81 80
130
57
83 80
162
-8-2
-32-50
0
50
100
150
200
Mill
ion
to
ns
Active plan Underway plan Total Demand Balance- Compelet the Chain
steel chain exports 1397-1398(2018-2019)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1397 1398E
536 1,059
5,548
6,566
889
8752,477
2,733
Tho
usa
nd
To
ns
DRI crude steel Flat steel products Long steel Products
891410173
Steel chain imports 1397-1398(2018-2019)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1397 1398E
۰ 28 5
909
444
339
98
Tho
usa
nd
Ton
s
Crude steel Flat steel products long steel products
1276
546
Apparent consumption of crude steel products (equivalent)
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
2017 2018 2019
17.75
16.1216.25
Mill
ion
Ton
s
0.9%
%9.2-
Goals of the vision document
اهداف تعیین شده در بخش صنعت (1384-1404)بر اساس سند چشم انداز بیست ساله کشور
:صنعت فوالد کشورمیلیون تن55معادل با : درصد از تولید جهانی فوالد3.5کسب سهم
میلیون تن20معادل با : درصدی از صادرات فوالد جهان4و کسب سهم
: خطوط ریلی هزار کیلومتر25: طول کل خطوط ریلی
میلیون تن202: ظرفیت کل حمل بار ریلیمیلیون تن535: ظرفیت حمل بار جاده ای
میلیون تن210: ظرفیت حمل و نقل دریایی:صنعت برق
مگاوات نصب شده نیروگاهی100000دستیابی به ظرفیت بیش از درصد8کاهش تلفات انرژی به
افزایش ساالنه سه تا پنج هزار مگاوات به ظرفیت نیروگاههای تجدید پذیر
67%
89%
73%
25%
54%
81%
70%
Sea freight unloadingand loading
Nominal capacity ofcommercial ports
Road CarriageDisplacement
Rail freight displacementRailway length
Power generationcapacity
Steel capacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Realized goals of the vision document(1397)
0.8
-6.5
-4.5-5.6
-13.9-15
-10
-5
0
5Mining
Industry
constructionWater, Electricity,Gas supply
Extraction of natural gas and oil
Apr2017-march 2018 Apr2018-march 2019
The growth rate of the value added industry sector
(1396-1397 )
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
Economic Growth Building value
Added Growth
Industry Value
Added Growth
Gross Fixed capital
Formation growth
2.10%
-0.98%
3.40%
-0.40%
8.0% 7.5%9.3%
21.4%
Average growth rate from the fourth development plan until the end of 1396
Sixth development plan
Goals set in the Sixth Development Plan (1396-1400) and Compare with the achievement goals in previous development programs
Iran economic growth 1391-1397(2012-2018)
-6.2
-0.6
2.6
0.5
12.1
3.9
-4.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397
Industry sector production index growth and building value added growth
-9.9
-4.6
3.2
-0.3
6.5
3.6
-6.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397
Industry sector production index Growth
Building Value added growth
Government construction & infrastructure payments
(1384-1397) - Fixed price 1395
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Bill
ion
Ria
ls
Initial Approved
Achieved
Iran’s Rank in world Business Environments Index
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
142
137140
144
152 152
119117
120
124
128 127
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4541.0
34.0 34.0
30.026.0
23.5
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Assumption of steel use forecast in 1398:
Time period is considered: The last 20 years
Industry Sector Value Added Growth: 5.3%
Building Sector Value Added Growth: 2.3%
Apparent steel use per capita (crude steel equivalent)-2018
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Syria
Yemen
Pakistan
India
Iraq
Egypt
Kazakhstan
Bahrain
IRAN
Libya
France
Saudi Arabia
Denmark
Portugal
Russia
Spain
Oman
United States
Kuwait
Turkey
Canada
Italy
Sweden
Germany
Australia
Japan
Slovenia
Qatar
Czech Republic
United Arab Emirates
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
300 kg
IRAN:195 kg
Export potential of Iranian steel products
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
FLAT PRODUCTS EXPORT LONG PRODUCTS EXPORT
1.64
2.48
7.27 7.20
Mil
lionT
ons
Iran's largest export volume Iran's Export Potential capacity
39
45
50
5355 55 55
26.728.6
30.633.0
35.8
39.0
43.9
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1398 1399 1400 1401 1402 1403 1404
Crude steel capacity
Total consumption and export based on DSM method, commercial similarity
and maximum export potential
24
19.2
Dispersion in active steel units(1398)
-20%
10%
40%
70%
100%
North Sea Margin
East and North East
Center
South Sea Margin
North West
West
Pellet DRI Crude steel
Low share of quality steel products from total steel production in
Iran (2018)
1.7%
6.9%6.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Iran China World
Steel structure ownership(1397)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Capacity Production
59.9%70.7%
40.1%29.3%
public-private
private
Production:
24.7 Mt
Capacity: 33.9
Mt
World and Iran steel trade structure
Crude steel
15%
Flat steel
Products
50% Long steel
Products
35%
Crude
steel
71%
Flat steel
products
18%
Long steel
products
11%
Crude
steel
62%
Flat steel
products
10%
Long steel
products
28%
World steel trade
Iran Steel trade 1397 Iran Steel Trade : Ave 1394-1396
1,3591,796
913
1,109
20182040e
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Flat
Long
80%
capacity
72%
capacity
:سهم ایران در تولید محصوالت نهایی در جهاندرصد0.9: محصوالت تختدرصد1.1:محصوالت طولی
الهایسدرجهانتولیددرایرانفعلیسهمشوداگرفرضدرولیدتمیزانرودمیانتظارآنگاهباشد،داشتهادامهآتیصورتایندر.باشدتنمیلیون27بامعادل2040سال
بودنخواهدسازیظرفیتبهنیازی
The uncertainty of Iran steel chain about finished steel products
18.9811.94
15.78
3.19
30.1
9.6
11.1
18.0
Current
capacity
production
2018
production
2040
Surplus
capacity in
2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Flat
Long
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Crude steel DRI Pellet Iron oreconcentrate
Infrastructurefor plans
Total
2,145
1,010 897664
143
4,859
Mill
ion
eu
ro
32
Mill
ion
eu
ro
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
3,856
945450 727
2,804
55720
9,557
33
Iran average Fe content of iron ore :46%
Type of iron ore: Magnetite (90%), Hematite (10%)
GeologicalReserve
5 Billion Tonnes
proven reserves
3.3 Billion Tons
Major iron-ore region of the country
Sangan Region
Iran Central Region(Zarand -Saghand -Bafgh)
Sirjan Region
Iron ore reserves
probable reserves
1.7 Billion Tons
Iran iron ore reserve status
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Geological reserve Proven reserve Demand until 2025-based on Iran steel
comprehensive planstudies
Remaining provenreserves
5
3.3
1.1
2.2
ند ت
اریلی
م
Average grade of Iron ore in Iran: about 46%Iron ore deposits is adequate almost 14years after 2025
35
Source: IMIDRO 2019
پیشنهاد
:نظر به
الد، عدم انطباق برنامه های سازمانهای اثر بخش در برنامه زنجیره فو
شرایط اقتصادی ،
وضعیت بازار مصرف و صادرات،
وضعیت سنگ آهن،
مورد بازنگری زمانی 1404هدف گذاری
. و تمهیدات مدیریتی قرار گیرد
سپاس