湊隆幸 minato, takayuki nautilus workshop 2010 @ seoul urban security 1 copyright (c) 2010...

湊　隆幸Minato, Takayuki

Nautilus Workshop 2010 @ Seoul

Urban Security

1

Copyright (C) 2010 Takayuki Minato. All Rights Reserved.

新領域創成科学研究科　湊　隆幸　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences

Contents 2

Urban security linked to energy security

Resource problems in Cross-National Linkage

Technology-driven, energy-free society

also.

Image of technology-driven society

Interconnected Problems & Solutions

3

3


Technology : Not accomplished knowledge to make artifacts, but medium led to “something”

Resourcesreactive

Goods&

Services

PolicyTechnology

active

Secondary Effects

Technologies as medium 4

Technology-drivenSocieties


GHG Emissions in Cities

Global Atmospheric Research ： Cited from Clinton Climate initiative

5

To see GHG emissionsas a variable,

Large cities accounts for 75% of total GHG. Energy is heavily dependent on natural resources.

Thus, energy security isa major factor for sustainablecities.


円高・バブル

Strong YenBubble

6

国力中流化

Middle-ClassFamily

国際化Internationali

-zation

老齢化少子化

Aging&Decre-asing Children

不景気Recession

1955 60 　　　　 70 　　　 80 90 2010-

・石油ｼｮｯｸOil Shock(1973)

高度経済成長High

EconomicGrowth

・ PKOCambodia(1992 ）・水俣病

Minamata Disease,Pollution (1956 ）

・大阪万博Int’l

Exposition(1970 ）

・東京ｵﾘﾝﾋﾟｯｸOlympic(1964 ）

・リニアLinear

Express(201?)

・八幡製鉄所Yahata Steel

Company(1897 ）

・霞が関ﾋﾞﾙSkyscraper(1968 ）

大戦終了End Of War (1945 ）

・新幹線Shinkannsen(195

9 ）・地下鉄Tokyo Metro(1953 ）

・合意ﾌﾟﾗｻﾞPlaza

Accord(1985 ）

社会の移り変わり　 Social Change L05-6

http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F:Mountfujijapan.jpg


Influence Diagram 7

: Known

: Un-knownWelfareBudget▲

AgingSociety▲

EconomicGrowth

▼▲

KOREA Market

Competition

JAPANTechnology

DevelopmentJAPAN

Industry Shift

Birthrate▼

Life StyleChange

UrbanSecurity

CHINA Resource

Imperialism

GlobalWarming

Energy&FoodConsumption

Immigration

PersonalSaving▼

Number ofHouseholds

WorkingPopulation▼


Cross-National Linkages 8

Problem Linkages:CHINA resource imperialism ⇒leads to conflicts in the Asia ⇒ causes shortage of rare resources ⇒Increase acquisition costs ⇒resource insecurity for JAPAN (& maybe KOREA)Solution Linkages:necessitates alternative technologies ⇒ (resource-independent)making JAPAN (&KOREA) shift to energy efficient industries ⇒ thereby energy security in the countries


Intra-Country Linkages : JAPAN 9

Problem Linkages:decrease in birthrate & aging society,decrease in working population ⇒ causes cost inefficiency & affects economic growth ⇒ necessitate change of urban lifestyle ⇒urban insecuritySolution Linkages:new technologies ⇒changes people life stylealso, competitive industry ⇒possible economic growththereby urban security

Technology Road Map by METI

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Technology Strategy MapObjective: Backcasting technological specifications for public, trans., industrial, and energy sectors.Conditions: Reducing CO2/GDP emission by 1/3(2050), 1/10(2100).

Assumptions: Energy consumption x1.5(2050), x2.1(2100)

peak of oil production(2050), natural gas(2100).

Scenario:

Source with Modification: “Technology Strategy Map (Energy)” by Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

Nuclear100%

RecyclableEnergy

100%

Fossil with CCS(Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage)

100%

Long term

Short -Mid term

11


Objective: Innovative technologies for government initiativeConditions: Reducing GHG emission 50% by 2050 (Cool Earth 50)Technologies:

Source: “Innovative Energy Technology Plan” by METI

(Industry)11. Material Processing Techs.12. Innovative Steel Manufacturing(Public/Households)13. Energy Conservation House/Building14. Lighting15. Decentralized Fuel Cell16. Heat Pump17. Information Devices/System18. HEMS/BEMS/EMS(Common Technologies)19. Electricity Storage20. Power Electronics21. Hydrogen Production/Storage/Storage

(Energy) –1. Natural Gas Thermal Power2. Coal Thermal Power3. CCS4. Innovative Solar Power5. Advanced Nuclear Power6. Superconductivity(Transportation)7. ITS8. Fuel Cell Automobile9. Plug-in Hybrid Car10. Biomass Fuel

Innovative Energy Technology 12

Possible Scenario& Images of Data-driven Society

13

13


Imp

act o

n “

Socia

l Costs

”

+++Degree of Uncertainty

+++

+

▼Business Portfolio (New Business, Shift , etc…)▲Innovative Technologies (Nano-tech, Bio, IT, etc..) ▲Income Differential▼Educational Excellence◆”Cultural Landscape” ◆Immigration

▼Working Population (De-population/Aging)▲Maintenance of Infra. ▲Medical Expenses▲Price of Natural Resources▲Crime Rate▲Financial Crisis (Regional)

Rurbanizationor

“Pastoral”

Urbanizationor

Compact

Drivers & Uncertainty 14


Compact Pastoral

Description Homogeneous “Parasite” families

moving in cities

Heterogeneous landscape (food,

resorts,..)

Key Drivers Economic Growth Innovative Technologies

Business • “Ventures” by old, women• Conglomerate

• Telecommuting Working• P to P Business

Transportation

• Public & Vertical• Automated commuter, Walking, ….

• Personal & Horizontal• Hybrid-car, Rapid Train Network

Welfare • Multi-functional services in one residence, intensive care

• Self medi-care, robots• Remote education

Energy • Centralized, BEMS/HEMS• Micro, Mobile Electricity

• Distributed, De-commercialized, Self-generation

Security/Safety

• Gate City, •

• Individual Monitoring, Tracing, Alarming System

“Ubiquitous”

Contrasting World 15


Ubiquitous Society

Source: http://www.mof.go.jp/singikai/buturyu_boueki/siryou/ka160312a.pdf

http://jp.fujitsu.com/group/labs/techinfo/techguide/list/paper_p05.html

(“Smart Life”)

(Electric Paper)

(Security)

16


http://www.roppongihills.com/jp/facilities/

Gate City ?

(Micro Electricity)

• Vibration, sounds, etc.• Body temperature, Walking Energy, etc

http://www.soundpower.co.jp/seihin.html

http://www.onaka-kenko.com/endoscope-closeup/ endoscope-technology/et_061.html

(Wireless Devices)• Medical Devices• Mobile phones, …• Wireless Cloth• Home Appliances• Wireless Automobile

Compact City & Micro-energy 17


Japan as a technology-driven society, economically, environmentally, and socially as well.

Needs for resource-independent innovative technologies.

However, we may also need to consider

Which world would be preferred and why?

If another world came about, what would it mean for us?

18Summary

End

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湊 隆幸 minato, takayuki nautilus workshop 2010 @ seoul urban security 1 copyright (c) 2010...

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湊隆幸 minato, takayuki nautilus workshop 2010 @ seoul urban security 1 copyright (c) 2010...