| los alamos national laboratory | may 2013 | unclassified | 1 operated by los alamos national...

| Los Alamos National Laboratory |

May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 1

Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED


MaRIE 1.0:Matter Radiation Interactions in Extremes 1.0Mary Hockaday6 June 20132013 Mission Committee talk




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We have four major themes for today’s discussions

Introduce myself

Reframing of the mission

need for MaRIE 1.0

Provide a status of our path

to CD-0

Obtain feedback on approach

We are modifying our framing of our mission need based on feed back from the Mission Committee. Let’s see

how it’s coming along.




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At the contract transition the need for Los Alamos National Laboratory to have a signature facility was reaffirmed

LANSCE-generated Proton beam will be coupled

directly into MaRIE

LANSCE provides experience in Accelerators, User

Facilities, and Material Science

Historically LANSCE hasplayed a role.

MaRIE builds on LANSCE’s success.




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MaRIE 1.0 is the most NW-relevant subset (~$1B) of MaRIE.

Unique very hard x-ray XFEL

Unique simultaneous photon-proton imaging measurements

MPDH: Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall

Dynamic experiments utilizing premier x-ray scattering capability at high energy and high repetition frequency with simultaneous charged particle dynamic imaging

M4: Making, Measuring & Modeling Materials Facility State of the art resource for materials synthesis and control, with national security infrastructure




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We have been working towards our vision of

MaRIE since contract transition.

(2009)

(2010)

(2012)

Developing theScience Case

Facility Definition

Pre-conceptual Proposal

LANS Contract Transition

Concept Definition/Internal Competition

MaRIE selection

(2006-2008)

Pre

-MaR

IE

LANS BUSINESS-SENSITIVE INFORMATION

(2013)

Path to CD-0

We are focusing on the NNSA customer

http://www.lanl.gov/orgs/adeps/VISTAS/docs/FINAL-LALP-10-059-reduced.pdf




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The NNSA New Facilities call was an opportunity to address decadal ST&E facility needs for Stewardship




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As we look to the future three things are certain

• The next and succeeding generations of stewards will need to make decisions

• The nation, its allies and its adversaries must have confidence in those decisions

• Our stewards will use the best computation, simulation and experimental toos we have to inform those decisions.

“It’s a matter of production and capability of doing it. As you know, ah, you go to war with the army you have—not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” –

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 2004

AnnualAssessment

SignificantFinding

Investigations

Life ExtensionPrograms




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Our stewards will be facing a different stockpile from today’s- one that was built and tested in the era of underground testing.

• There will be changes in materials long term• Aging changes materials• Replacement materials may not be able to be made exactly the same

way• Explicit decisions to change materials for manufacturability or

sustainability reasons• Explicit decisions to change materials for performance gains.

• Risk increases as weapons age, MaRIE can help mitigate those risks.

MaRIE offers the capability to study and better understand how these changes will affect the performance of the

weapons.




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Predictive capability for the NEP is not yet sufficient to protect against irrational confidence

We have moved to how do we best test our stewards!!!




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MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions

Materials Capability Review 2013

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W76-1 and other systems until retiredW76-1 and other systems until retired

W88 Alt 370W88 Alt 370

B61-12B61-12

Cruise MissileCruise Missile

IW-1IW-1

IW-2IW-2

IW-3IW-3




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We asked ourselves, “What would we need to achieve a predictive, phase and process-aware understanding of materials performanceto support future stockpile decisions?”

Slide 11

Equation of State

Strength/Plasticity

Damage/Failure

Phase-aware EOS

Multi-ScaleStrengthModels

Multi-ModeDamage

Analytical Isotropic Homogeneous

Phase-aware integrated models

Manufacturing/synthesis

Aging phenomena

Interfaces/compatibility

Process -aware integrated models

We are here

There is a symbiotic relationship between MaRIE and advanced computational power to achieve self consistent modeling

There is a symbiotic relationship between MaRIE and advanced computational power to achieve self consistent modeling

Process Aware ManufacturingDynamic Materials Performance

We are here




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We have always used multiple facilities to acquire data at the appropriate time and length scales required to establish predictive capability




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We take the evolution of mix and burn to provide an example of how integrating across scales and facilities is powerful




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An example to consider is the validation of the mix model




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Application to model though preliminary, is showing great promise




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We developed a set of MaRIE 1.0 “First Experiments” that span the mission need AND set functional requirements for the facility

Slide 16





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Dead zones in IHE; present simulation method




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Shock Front

Flyer velocity

Shock Front

0 s 0.6 s 1.2 s

42-keV XFEL allows multigranular sample penetration and multipulse dynamics without significant sample perturbation.

Through the Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall, MaRIE 1.0 provides a unique capability for simultaneous, multi-probe measurements of in situ transient phenomena in relevant dynamic extremes

Slide 18

Pu; Al

elastic

total

Proton microscopy provides absolute density (~1%) & velocities through sample volume.

MPDH provides a broad suite of loading conditions to the user.

MaR

IE 1

.0

First Experiments




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Multiple processes are required to produce well characterized Pu and we continue to be reminded about challenges associated with Pu




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The challenge is to observe the dynamic microstructure and phase evolution down to the sub-granular level

Example: Dynamic Performance of Plutonium and Surrogate Metals and Alloys

The first experiment: Multiple, simultaneous dynamic in situ diagnostics with resolution at the scale of nucleation sites (< 1 mm; ps – ns)

Sub-mm resolution100’s – 1000’s mm samples

Sub-ns resolution, ~30 frames in1 ms duration

Slide 20

See Garry’s Maskaly’s talk on why this could matter

Marie allows us to break the problem apart.Marie allows us to break the problem apart.




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Lack of accurate predictive processing models leads to production inefficiency




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Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena




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Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena

Slide 23

Mission: Cost efficient near-net shape components with

controlled performance. The model: New solidification models that incorporate fluid flow, nucleation and growth of microstructure

ProtonsDensity/Fluid Flow Radiography

Diffraction - structure

The goal: Advanced casting models with elemental and microstructure evolution using dynamic 3-D imaging of density, structure, temperature and elemental composition

Hard X-rays

The First Experiment:Complete 3-D reconstruction coupled to :Structure and elemental mapping during processing at M4In situ density/structure at MPDH

Solidification fronts 0.01 to 10 mm/msImages from every 100 ns to 10’s of msFOV 100 mm to see multiple grains Resolution of 500 nm for precipitates0.1 – 5 mm penetrationTemperature up to 2200 oCHeating/Cooling rates of 0.01 - 105 oC/sec

First Experiment: Controlled Solidification and Phase Transformations

Tunable X-rays Chemical composition

Long term goal is product based specifications

Team includes: Franz Freibert, Dave Teter, Robert Hackenberg, …




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“First Experiments” define mission-driven functional requirements and reveal facility performance gaps





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“First Campaigns” are examples of how MaRIE 1.0 could help our Stockpile Stewards address today’s challenges if it were available today




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New Facilities Process Outcome:“…we would expect to move MaRIE to CD-0 within 6 months”

• “MaRIE was, by far, judged to be the most mature and well-motivated proposed facility”

• “The cost estimate, schedule estimate, and technical feasibility of MaRIE are assessed to be at a level of fidelity beyond what is needed at this stage in the planning process”

• “The technical capabilities provided by MaRIE could substantially advance our ability to maintain the stockpile, but only if utilized within the appropriate framework.”

• “Acceptance of MaRIE for CD-0 will require a letter from the directors of LANL and LLNL that describes your commitment and plan for advancing the process and science of certification to make use of MaRIE.”

Slide 26




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Changes in DOE and NNSA Leadership have impacted our path forward

The Directors’ letter continues to be worked Optimal timing and delivery path is uncertain Soliciting input from key stakeholders FYNSP Budget Builds most likely will not wait for new

leadership to be in place Informal funding profile has been provided – FY20

construction start with peak no greater than 200 M a/year over 8 years – will entertain FY19 construction start




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SFR / 1st Camp. Workshops

MNS Approved!

NNSA / APM ICR Review

Review of Scope, Schedule, Cost, Risks, & CD-0 package [BOG Endorsed]

Selden Review of Mission Need and Program Requirements

Respond / Revise

Respond / Revise

Update FFR’s

Draft Letter

Final Letter / NNSA Conc.

Selden Review ofLLNL and LANL Letter

Draft CDEP

PSP ReviewMar 2013

Draft MNS

Draft PRD

Update Cost, Schedule, Risks, & Ref. Design

Notional CD-0 Schedule: Logic has been established; pacing is under discussion

Dec. 2012

Update R&D Plan

Facility Definition Review (FFR’s, CDEP, and R&D)

Slide 28

Deeney: “12/13”Our goal is to position MaRIE 1.0

for CD-0 in CY 13 AND for a funding line in FY15 FYNSP request




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We are grappling with what should our Acquisition Strategy be given that:

• NNSA Management uncertainty

• NNSA has requested a CD0 – initial cost

range

• Construction start no sooner than FY19

• Technical Risk exists in the XFEL and the

detectors -- ~85M R&D required to mitigate

• NMSSUP experience has left us cautious




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Los Alamos is the right place for MaRIE

♦ Our Stewards will utilize MaRIE to meet our mission challenges of the future

♦ We have the expertise in weapons mission materials (Pu, HE,…) in a classified environment

♦ LANSCE is a National User Facility - We have experience optimizing the co-existence of

basic and classified research - Provides ~$1B infrastructure site credit towards MaRIE - We have proven track record in running large accelerator based facilities♦ People are key to our future, and MaRIE is key to

attracting and retaining the next generation of Stewards to Los Alamos

“We have won the competition”We need your help to make MaRIE a reality!




UNCLASSIFIED

MaRIE 1.0 will enable us to observe and ultimately control how mesoscale materials properties affect weapons performance

A mission need exists for a facility focused on predicting and controlling materials in extreme environments, exploiting in situ transient measurements on real materials in relevant dynamic extremes to address nuclear weapons challenges in qualification and certification.

Achieving controlled functionality at the mesoscale through co-design is the frontier of materials research.

MaRIE 1.0 meets this need with a robust preconceptual reference design that is grounded in community-defined mission and scientific requirements.

MaRIE provides a unique tool set for our future Stewards. Definitely a “Killer Capability.”




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MaRIE 1.0 science and mission is already attracting the best and the brightest

Amy ClarkeMST

Cindy BolmeWX

Richard Sandberg

MPA

Kyle RamosWX

MaR

IE

Gen

era

tion

Garry MaskalyXTD

MaR

IE

Gen

era

tion

http://jila.colorado.edu/kmgroup/bio/sandberg




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Backup





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MaRIE External Advisory Board Mission Need Subcommittee

Bob Selden, Chair Mike Anastasio Charlie Curtis Roger Falcone Sig Hecker Rus Hemley John Immele Don Kerr Steve Koonin Cherry Murray

The task of this Subcommittee is to provide me advice, feedback, and advocacy as we lay the groundwork for a communication strategy with all possible stakeholders that articulates

• A joint (LANL-LLNL) vision for how we qualify components and certify the performance of the future stockpile using the scientific tools and data we can obtain as we anticipate a smaller and different stockpile that is further removed from underground test;

• The mission need for the MaRIE CD-0 package including the assurance that mission need has been translated to appropriate and cost-effective facility requirements; and,

• A compelling strategy for extending the lifetime and sustaining the science base of the stockpile that is appreciated and supported by the broader

community and our colleagues at the Pentagon.




UNCLASSIFIED

MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions


Life

Ext

en

sio

n

Pro

gra

ms

Sig

nific

ant

Fin

ding

In

vest

igat

ions

An

nu

al

Ass

ess

me

nt

W76-1 and other systems until retiredW76-1 and other systems until retired

W88 Alt 370W88 Alt 370

B61-12B61-12

Cruise MissileCruise Missile

IW-1IW-1

IW-2IW-2

IW-3IW-3

| los alamos national laboratory | may 2013 | unclassified | 1 operated by los alamos national...

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