Оценка ИТ-проекта на ранней стадии. Практический опыт...
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Reference Class Forecasting(Daniel Kahneman) 2002
For example, a group of students enrolling at acollege were asked to rate their future academic performance relative to their peers intheir major. On average, these students expected to perform better than 84% of theirpeers, which is logically impossible. The forecasts were biased by overconfidence.Another group of incoming students from the same major were asked about theirentrance scores and their peers' scores before being asked about their expectedperformance. This simple diversion into relevant outside-view information, which bothgroups of subjects were aware of, reduced the second group's average expectedperformance ratings by 20%. That is still overconfident, but it is much more realisticthan the forecast made by the first group (Lovallo and Kahneman 2003: 61).4
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COSMIC
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