АНАЛИЗА И ОЦЕНА ОПРАВДАНОСТИ УЛАГАЊА У СОЛАРНУ...
DESCRIPTION
У раду је представљена анализа и оцена оправданости улагања у електро-енергетске објекте који као енергент користе обновљиве изворе енергије, конкретно електрану на соларну енергију. Осим анализе специфичних пројеката из области електро-енергетике рад се првенствено бави проблематиком процеса инвестирања, местом и садржајем студије оправданости у том процесу. Такође у раду је описана комлетна методологија оцене инвестиционих пројеката.Као специфичност за област ОИЕ представљени су недостаци коришћења конвенционалних облика енергије, са посебним освртом на скривене трошкове коришћења истих. Такође направљена је упоредна анализа стања у енергетици у свету, у ЕУ и на крају у Србији. Радом су представљене све специфичности инвестиционих пројеката из области електро-енергетике (друштвено-политичка ситуација (услови Европске уније), подстицајна средства за коришћење ОИЕ, регулисана откупна цена произведене енергије), као и проблеми на које се може наићи у реализацији оваквог пројекта.Као завршница рада налази се студија случаја у којој се анализира приватно предузеће које би се бавило производњом електричне енергије из обновљивих извора енергије.Имајући у виду бројне предности овог начина производње електричне енергије, као и огромне потенцијале које Република Србија поседује, а не превиђајући друштвено политичку ситуацију и неповољне финансијске услове, изводи се закључак који показује због чега су ове инвестиције у Србији малобројне.TRANSCRIPT
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Abstract
This paper presented analysis and evaluation of investment in electric energy facilities
using renewable energy sources, especially in facilities that are using solar energy.
Besides the analysis of specific projects in the field of electro-energy, work is
primarily concerned with the investment process, place and content of feasibility study
in that process. Also the paper describes the evaluation methodology of investment
projects
As for the specific area of renewable energy sources in paper are presented
disadvantages of usage of conventional energy sources, with special emphasis on the
hidden costs of using them. Also, there is made a comparative analysis of the energy
sectors in the world, the EU and Serbia at the end. The work presents all the
characteristics of investment projects in the field of electrical energy (socio-political
situation (the conditions of the European Union), incentives to use renewable energy,
regulated purchase price of energy produced), as well as problems that may be
encountered in the implementation of this project.
As the finale in paper is presented a case study in which is analyzed the private
company which plans to invest in production of electricity using renewable energy
sources.
Given the many advantages of this method of electricity production, as well as huge
potential which the Republic of Serbia has in this field, not overlooking the social and
political situation and the adverse financial conditions, at the end is performed a
conclusion that shows why these investments are rare in Serbia.
Key words: Solar Energy, Renewable Energy, feasibility studies in the field of power
industry
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29.8.1983.
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10.2008.-2.2009. Storage Systems,
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:
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vi
1. ...................................................................................................................................... 1
2. .................................................................. 4
2.1. ................. 4
2.2. ....................................................... 6
3. , ............ 8
3.1. .................................................................................... 8
3.1.1. ....................................................................................................... 9
3.1.2. ............................................................................................... 11
3.1.3. ................................................................................ 12
3.2. , ............................................................... 15
3.2.1. ...................................... 16
3.2.2. ............................................................... 19
4. - ......................... 24
4.1. ......................................................................................................... 24
4. 2. ................................................................................................. 25
4.3. .................................................................................................. 26
4.4. .................................................................................................. 26
4.5. ......................................................................................................... 26
4.6. ....................................................................................................... 26
4.7. .............................................................................. 26
4.8. ............................................................................................... 27
4.9. .......................................................................................................... 28
4.10. ............................................................................................................ 28
4.11. ........................................................................................................... 28
4.12. (Cash flow) ......................................................................... 28
4.13. .................................................................................................... 29
4.14. .................................................................................................. 29
4.15. ........................................................... 30
5. .................... 31
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5.1. ................................................................ 32
5.2. ......................................................................................................... 34
5.2.1. .................................................................................................... 36
5.2.2. / .................................................................. 38
5.2.3. ......................................................... 48
5.2.4. ............................................................................................... 50
5.3. ................................................................................................... 51
5.3.1. ............................................................................................ 51
5.3.2. ................................................................................................ 51
5.3.3. .............................................................................................. 57
5.4. .................................................................................................. 60
5.5. .................................................................................................. 61
5.6. ......................................................................................................... 62
5.6.1. ..................................................................................................... 62
5.6.2. ...................................................................................... 63
5.7. ....................................................................................................... 65
5.8. .............................................................................. 71
5.8.1. ......................................................................... 71
5.8.2. ........................................................................... 72
5.9. .................................................................................................. 73
5.9.1. ............................................................................................ 73
5.9.2. .............................................................. 73
5.10. ........................................................................................ 73
5.11. ............................................................................. 75
5.12. ............................................................................................... 76
5.13. ............................................................................................................. 77
5.14. ........................................................................................................ 80
5.15. ............................................................................................................ 83
5.16. ........................................................................................................... 86
5.17. ............................................................................................. 89
5.18. .................................................................................................... 94
5.18.1. .................................................................................................... 94
5.18.2. .......................................................................................... 94
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5.19. ...................................................................................................... 98
5.19.1. .................................................................. 98
5.20. 1. ........................................................................ 99
5.20. 2. ...................................................................................... 100
6. ....................................................................................................................... 104
7. .............................................................................................................. 107
8. ...................................................................................................................... 109
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:
1. ..........................................................33
2: .................................................................34
3: ................................................................34
4: ............................................................35
5: ()...................45
6: / (
)..........................................................................46
7: SWOT ............................................................................................49
8: ..................................51
9: ..............................................................................................57
10: ....................57
Ta 11: .............................................................64
12: ...............................................................................76
13: ..................................................76
14: ............................................................................78
15: ............................................................................................79
16: ...........................................................................................80
17: ......................................................................................83
18: ..........................................................................................86
19: .........................................................................................89
20: ...........................................................................92
21: .........................................................................97
22: WACC............................................97
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23:
4,95%............................................................................................................................99
24: ........................................................101
25: ROI......................................................................................102
26: ...............................103
27:
............................................106
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2:
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3: (
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6: 2004. 2009..........................16
7: .................................................17
8: ..............................................................................54
9: ..........................................55
10: ............................................................56
11: Si .........................................................59
12: ..........................60
13: - ......................................................................62
14: .........................................................64
15: .....................................................65
16: ...........................................................................................67
17:
...........................................................................................................................108
18:
.......................................................................................................................108
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19: - ..................................................109
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2 http://www.theinsider.org/news/article.asp?id=0423, 2011
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-
56
DC odklop in prenapetostna zaita PV generatorja:
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varovalni loilnik 80A (1 omarica)
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0,00 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2. 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83
2.3.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
2.4.
2.5.
2.6.
3 (1-2)
0,00 154.187,18 154.187,18 154.187,18 154.187,18
4
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
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0 138.768,46 138.768,46 138.768,46 138.768,46
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345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
2
190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2. 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83
2.3.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
2.4.
-
78
2.5.
2.6.
3 (1-2)
154.187,18 119.687,18 119.687,18 119.687,18 119.687,18
4
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
5
138.768,46 107.718,46 107.718,46 107.718,46 107.718,46
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1
310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
2
190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2. 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83
2.3.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
2.4.
2.5.
2.6.
3 (1-2)
119.687,18 85.187,18 85.187,18 85.187,18 85.187,18
4
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
5
107.718,46 76.668,46 76.668,46 76.668,46 76.668,46
. ..
/. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.
1
276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
2
190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83 190.812,83
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2. 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83 189.812,83
2.3.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
-
79
2.4.
2.5.
2.6.
3 (1-2)
85.187,18 85.187,18 85.187,18 85.187,18 85.187,18
4
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
5
76.668,46 76.668,46 76.668,46 76.668,46 76.668,46
.
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1
276.000,00 276.000,
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2.
189.812,83 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
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3.
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2.
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85.187,18 275.000,
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275.000,00 275.000,00 275.000,0
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76.668,46 247.500,
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5.14.
,
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12 .
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1 3.926.333,68 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.1.
345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.2.
3.926.333,68
1.3.
2 3.926.333,68 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46
2.1.
3.866.156,50
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
0,00 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74
2.5.
60.177,18 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.6.
3 (1-2)
0,00 240.987,54 240.987,54 240.987,54 240.987,54
. .
/. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
1 345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.1.
345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.2.
1.3.
-
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2 104.012,46 100.562,46 100.562,46 100.562,46 100.562,46
2.1.
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74
2.5.
15.418,72 11.968,72 11.968,72 11.968,72 11.968,72
2.6.
3 (1-2)
240.987,54 209.937,54 209.937,54 209.937,54 209.937,54
. .
/. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.
1 310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 100.562,46 97.112,46 97.112,46 9.518,72 9.518,72
2.1.
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 0,00 0,00
2.5.
11.968,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72
2.6.
3
209.937,54 178.887,54 178.887,54 266.481,28 266.481,28
-
82
. .
/. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72
2.1.
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
2.5.
8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72
2.6.
3 (1-2)
266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28
. .
/. 21 22 23 24 25
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1. 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.505,00
2.1.
2.1.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.2.
2.3.
-
83
2.4.
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 5,00
2.5.
27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00
2.6.
3 (1-2)
247.500,00 247.500,00 247.500,00 247.500,00 247.495,00
5.15.
18:
. .
/. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
1 0,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.1.
0,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.2.
2 3.926.333,68 34.945,39 33.564,05 32.155,08 30.717,93
2.1.
3.866.156,50
2.2.
0,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
60.177,18 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.6. ()
18.526,67 17.145,33 15.736,36 14.299,22
3 (1-2)
-
3.926.333,68
310.054,61 311.435,95 312.844,92 314.282,07
. .
/. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
1 345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.1.
345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.2.
2 29.252,04 24.306,84 22.781,72 21.226,11 19.639,38
-
84
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
15.418,72 11.968,72 11.968,72 11.968,72 11.968,72
2.6. ()
12.833,33 11.338,12 9.813,01 8.257,39 6.670,66
3 (1-2)
315.747,96 286.193,16 287.718,28 289.273,89 290.860,62
. .
/. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.
1 310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
2 18.020,92 12.920,09 11.236,24 9.518,72 9.518,72
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
11.968,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72
2.6. ()
5.052,20 3.401,37 1.717,52 0,00 0,00
3 (1-2)
292.479,08 263.079,91 264.763,76 266.481,28 266.481,28
-
85
. .
/. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
2 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72 9.518,72
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72 8.518,72
2.6. ()
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
3 (1-2)
266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28 266.481,28
. .
/. 20 21 22 23 24 25
1 276.000,00
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
1.1
.
276.000,0 276.000,0 276.000,0 276.000,0 276.000,0 276.000,0
1.2
.
2 9.518,72 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.500,00 28.500,00
2.1
.
2.2
.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3
.
2.4
.
2.5
.
8.518,72 27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00 27.500,00
2.6
.
()
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
3 266.481,2 247.500,0 247.500,0 247.500,0 247.500,0 247.500,0
-
86
5.16.
19:
. .
/. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
1 0,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.1.
345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.2.
2 3.866.156,50 19.526,67 18.145,33 16.736,36 15.299,22
2.1.
3.866.156,50
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. ()
18.526,67 17.145,33 15.736,36 14.299,22
3 (1-2)
-
3.866.156,50
325.473,33 326.854,67 328.263,64 329.700,78
. .
/. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
1 345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.1.
345.000,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.2.
2 13.833,33 12.338,12 10.813,01 9.257,39 7.670,66
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. ()
12.833,33 11.338,12 9.813,01 8.257,39 6.670,66
3 331.166,67 298.161,88 299.686,99 301.242,61 302.829,34
-
87
. .
/. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.
1 310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
310.500,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
2 6.052,20 4.401,37 2.717,52 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. ()
5.052,20 3.401,37 1.717,52 0,00 0,00
3 (1-2)
304.447,80 271.598,63 273.282,48 275.000,00 275.000,00
. .
/. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1.
276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
2 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. ()
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
3 (1-2)
275.000,00 275.000,00 275.000,00 275.000,00 275.000,00
-
88
. .
/. 20 21 22 23 24 25
1 276.000,00
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
1.1
.
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
276.000,0
0
1.2
.
2 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.1
.
2.2
.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3
.
2.4
.
2.5
.
()
0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
3 (1-2)
275.000,0
0
275.000,0
0
275.000,0
0
275.000,0
0
275.000,0
0
275.000,0
0
-
89
5.17.
20:
. .
0 1. 2. 3. 4 5.
1 3.926.333,68 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.1. / 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00 345.000,00
1.2. 3.000.000,00
1.3. 926.333,68
2 3.926.333,68 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46
2.1. 3.926.333,68
2.2. 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3. 0
2.4. 0
2.5.
87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74
2.6. 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.7.
3 3.926.333,68 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46
4 0,00 240.987,54 240.987,54 240.987,54 240.987,54 240.987,54
5 0 0,00 240.987,54 481.975,09 722.962,63 963.950,17
6 0,00 240.987,54 481.975,09 722.962,63 963.950,17 1.204.937,72
-
90
. .
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.1. / 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00 310.500,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46
2.1.
2.2.
1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74 87.593,74
2.6. 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.7.
3 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46 104.012,46
4 206.487,54 206.487,54 206.487,54 206.487,54 206.487,54
5 1.204.937,72 1.411.425,26 1.617.912,80 1.824.400,35 2.030.887,89
6 1.411.425,26 1.617.912,80 1.824.400,35 2.030.887,89 2.237.375,43
-
91
. .
11 12 13 14 15
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1. / 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 104.012,46 104.012,46 16.418,72 16.418,72 16.418,72
2.1.
2.2. 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. 87.593,74 87.593,74 0 0 0
2.6. 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.7.
3 104.012,46 104.012,46 16.418,72 16.418,72 16.418,72
4 171.987,54 171.987,54 259.581,28 259.581,28 259.581,28
5 2.237.375,43 2.409.362,98 2.581.350,52 2.840.931,80 3.100.513,09
6 2.409.362,98 2.581.350,52 2.840.931,80 3.100.513,09 3.360.094,37
-
92
. .
16 17 18 19 20
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1. / 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 16.419,72 16.420,72 16.421,72 16.422,72 16.423,72
2.1.
2.2. 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. 1 2 3 4 5
2.6. 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.7.
3 16.419,72 16.420,72 16.421,72 16.422,72 16.423,72
4 259.580,28 259.579,28 259.578,28 259.577,28 259.576,28
5 3.360.094,37 3.619.674,65 3.879.253,93 4.138.832,22 4.398.409,50
6 3.619.674,65 3.879.253,93 4.138.832,22 4.398.409,50 4.657.985,78
-
93
. .
21 22 23 24 25
1 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.1. / 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00 276.000,00
1.2.
1.3.
2 16.424,72 16.425,72 16.426,72 16.427,72 16.428,72
2.1.
2.2. 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 1.000,00
2.3.
2.4.
2.5. 6 7 8 9 10
2.6. 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72 15.418,72
2.7.
3 16.424,72 16.425,72 16.426,72 16.427,72 16.428,72
4 259.575,28 259.574,28 259.573,28 259.572,28 259.571,28
5 4.657.985,78 4.917.561,06 5.177.135,35 5.436.708,63 5.696.280,91
6 4.917.561,06 5.177.135,35 5.436.708,63 5.696.280,91 5.955.852,19
-
94
5.18.
5.18.1. 58
21:
/ 0.037
( + ) /
0.083
/ 11.381
/
( +
) /
0.414
/ 0
/ 0
( + ) /
/
/
/
/
/
5.18.2.
5.18.2.1. WCC (Weighted Average Cost Of Capital)
22: WACC
0.01
() 0.08
1.12
0.10
(+ ) 0.02
WCC=4,95%
58
-
95
5.18.2.2.
4,95%
23: 5,505%
In En
NP
En
0 3.926.333,680 0,000 3.926.333,680 0,000 -3.926.333,680 0,000
1 0,000 310.054,609 0,000 295.439,230 295.439,230 295.439,230
2 0,000 311.435,950 0,000 282.766,975 282.766,975 578.206,206
3 0,000 312.844,918 0,000 270.656,848 270.656,848 848.863,054
4 0,000 314.282,066 0,000 259.083,339 259.083,339 1.107.946,393
5 0,000 315.747,956 0,000 248.022,115 248.022,115 1.355.968,507
6 0,000 286.193,165 0,000 214.209,677 214.209,677 1.570.178,184
7 0,000 287.718,277 0,000 205.199,951 205.199,951 1.775.378,135
8 0,000 289.273,892 0,000 196.584,382 196.584,382 1.971.962,517
9 0,000 290.860,619 0,000 188.345,248 188.345,248 2.160.307,765
10 0,000 292.479,080 0,000 180.465,639 180.465,639 2.340.773,404
11 0,000 263.079,911 0,000 154.674,020 154.674,020 2.495.447,424
12 0,000 264.763,758 0,000 148.326,311 148.326,311 2.643.773,735
13 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 142.251,332 142.251,332 2.786.025,067
14 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 135.545,877 135.545,877 2.921.570,944
15 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 129.156,505 129.156,505 3.050.727,449
16 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 123.068,315 123.068,315 3.173.795,764
17 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 117.267,111 117.267,111 3.291.062,875
18 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 111.739,365 111.739,365 3.402.802,240
19 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 106.472,186 106.472,186 3.509.274,426
20 0,000 266.481,283 0,000 101.453,291 101.453,291 3.610.727,717
-
96
21 0,000 247.500,000 0,000 89.785,169 89.785,169 3.700.512,887
22 0,000 247.500,000 0,000 85.552,869 85.552,869 3.786.065,756
23 0,000 247.500,000 0,000 81.520,071 81.520,071 3.867.585,827
24 0,000 247.500,000 0,000 77.677,372 77.677,372 3.945.263,198
25 0,000 247.500,000 0,000 74.015,809 74.015,809 4.019.279,008
Suma 3.926.333,680 4.338.178,048 3.926.333,680 3.050.727,449 92.945,328
92.945,33
0,78
23,64
-
97
5.18.2.3.
-
. 12 .
,
12 12 .
, 23 .
24:
12 92.945,33 0,50
12 -1.282.559,945 0,50
-594.807,31
5.18.2.4.
=5,25%
5.18.2.5.
= 23,5
5.18.2.6.
= 0,77
5.18.2.7. ROI (Return of investment)
25. ROI
I 1.457703369 15
I 1.62155026 16
I 3.915406738 30
-
98
5.19.
5.19.1.
4 %
26:
In
En NP
En
0 3.866.156,500 0,000 3.866.156,500 0,000 -3.866.156,500 0,000
1 0,000 325.473,326 0,000 312.955,122 312.955,122 312.955,122
2 0,000 326.854,668 0,000 302.195,514 302.195,514 615.150,635
3 0,000 328.263,636 0,000 291.825,177 291.825,177 906.975,812
4 0,000 329.700,783 0,000 281.829,611 281.829,611 1.188.805,424
5 0,000 331.166,674 0,000 272.194,866 272.194,866 1.461.000,290
6 0,000 298.161,882 0,000 235.641,666 235.641,666 1.696.641,956
7 0,000 299.686,994 0,000 227.737,485 227.737,485 1.924.379,442
8 0,000 301.242,609 0,000 220.115,024 220.115,024 2.144.494,465
9 0,000 302.829,336 0,000 212.763,875 212.763,875 2.357.258,340
10 0,000 304.447,798 0,000 205.674,023 205.674,023 2.562.932,363
11 0,000 271.598,628 0,000 176.425,290 176.425,290 2.739.357,654
12 0,000 273.282,476 0,000 170.691,428 170.691,428 2.910.049,082
13 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 165.157,874 165.157,874 3.075.206,955
14 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 158.805,648 158.805,648 3.234.012,603
15 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 152.697,738 152.697,738 3.386.710,341
16 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 146.824,748 146.824,748 3.533.535,090
-
99
17 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 141.177,643 141.177,643 3.674.712,732
18 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 135.747,733 135.747,733 3.810.460,465
19 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 130.526,667 130.526,667 3.940.987,132
20 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 125.506,410 125.506,410 4.066.493,542
21 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 120.679,241 120.679,241 4.187.172,783
22 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 116.037,731 116.037,731 4.303.210,514
23 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 111.574,742 111.574,742 4.414.785,256
24 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 107.283,405 107.283,405 4.522.068,661
25 0,000 275.000,000 0,000 103.157,121 103.157,121 4.625.225,782
Suma 3.866.156,500 4.517.708,811 3.866.156,500 3.386.710,341 759.069,282
= 759.069,282
5.19.2.
=5,9%
5.20.
5.20. 1.
() ( )
= ------------------------------ x 100% = 52.73%
-
- ( )
-
100
5.20. 2.
3
( 2 ) .
( ),
27:
K 1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
1,60
1,70
1,80
1,90
2,00
I
0% 2.981.750,78 2.589.117,4
1
2.196.484,04 1.803.850,68 1.411.217,31 1.018.583,94 625.950,57 233.317,20 -159.316,16 -551.949,53 -944.582,90
1% 2.192.626,86 1.799.993,4
9
1.407.360,12 1.014.726,76 622.093,39 229.460,02 -163.173,35 -555.806,72 -948.440,08 -
1.341.073,45
-1.733.706,82
2% 1.527.575,19 1.134.941,82
742.308,45 349.675,08 -42.958,29 -435.591,65 -828.225,02 -1.220.858,39 -1.613.491,76 -2.006.125,13
-2.398.758,49
3% 964.026,13 571.392,76 178.759,40 -213.873,97 -606.507,34 -999.140,71 -1.391.774,08 -1.784.407,44 -2.177.040,81 -
2.569.674,18
-2.962.307,55
4% 483.905,35 91.271,98 -301.361,39 -693.994,75 -1.086.628,12 -1.479.261,49 -1.871.894,86 -2.264.528,23 -2.657.161,59 -3.049.794,96
-3.442.428,33
5% 72.677,57 -319.955,80 -712.589,17 -1.105.222,53 -1.497.855,90 -1.890.489,27 -2.283.122,64 -2.675.756,01 -3.068.389,37 -
3.461.022,74
-3.853.656,11
6% -281.395,34 -674.028,71 -1.066.662,07 -1.459.295,44 -1.851.928,81 -2.244.562,18 -2.637.195,55 -3.029.828,91 -3.422.462,28 -3.815.095,65
-4.207.729,02
7% -587.832,16 -980.465,53 -1.373.098,90 -1.765.732,27 -2.158.365,64 -2.550.999,00 -2.943.632,37 -3.336.265,74 -3.728.899,11 -
4.121.532,48
-4.514.165,84
8% -854.384,01 -1.247.017,3
8
-1.639.650,75 -2.032.284,12 -2.424.917,48 -2.817.550,85 -3.210.184,22 -3.602.817,59 -3.995.450,96 -4.388.084,32
-4.780.717,69
9% -1.087.388,63 -
1.480.022,00
-1.872.655,37 -2.265.288,74 -2.657.922,10 -3.050.555,47 -3.443.188,84 -3.835.822,21 -4.228.455,58 -
4.621.088,94
-5.013.722,31
10% -1.292.049,41 -
1.684.682,78
-2.077.316,15 -2.469.949,52 -2.862.582,89 -3.255.216,25 -3.647.849,62 -4.040.482,99 -4.433.116,36 -
4.825.749,73
-5.218.383,09
11% -1.472.655,87 -
1.865.289,2
4
-2.257.922,60 -2.650.555,97 -3.043.189,34 -3.435.822,71 -3.828.456,08 -4.221.089,44 -4.613.722,81 -
5.006.356,18
-5.398.989,55
-
101
12% -1.632.758,46 -2.025.391,8
3
-2.418.025,20 -2.810.658,56 -3.203.291,93 -3.595.925,30 -3.988.558,67 -4.381.192,04 -4.773.825,40 -5.166.458,77
-5.559.092,14
13% -1.775.307,78 -2.167.941,1
4
-2.560.574,51 -2.953.207,88 -3.345.841,25 -3.738.474,62 -4.131.107,98 -4.523.741,35 -4.916.374,72 -5.309.008,09
-5.701.641,46
14% -1.902.765,66 -
2.295.399,03
-2.688.032,40 -3.080.665,76 -3.473.299,13 -3.865.932,50 -4.258.565,87 -4.651.199,24 -5.043.832,60 -
5.436.465,97
-5.829.099,34
15% -2.017.194,29 -
2.409.827,66
-2.802.461,03 -3.195.094,39 -3.587.727,76 -3.980.361,13 -4.372.994,50 -4.765.627,87 -5.158.261,23 -
5.550.894,60
-5.943.527,97
- , i -
-
102
-
-
(i)
17:
()
18 :
-7.000.000,00
-6.000.000,00
-5.000.000,00
-4.000.000,00
-3.000.000,00
-2.000.000,00
-1.000.000,00
0,00
1.000.000,00
2.000.000,00
3.000.000,00
4.000.000,00
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
1,60
1,70
1,80
1,90
-7.000.000,00
-6.000.000,00
-5.000.000,00
-4.000.000,00
-3.000.000,00
-2.000.000,00
-1.000.000,00
0,00
1.000.000,00
2.000.000,00
3.000.000,00
4.000.000,00
1,0
0
1,1
0
1,2
0
1,3
0
1,4
0
1,5
0
1,6
0
1,7
0
1,8
0
1,9
0
2,0
0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
-
103
5.21.
19: -
-
104
6.
,
.
.
,
,
.
.
.
,
, .
.
.
( 1
W), 0.012 % (
8.355 W), 0,035%
( 2.831 W), 0.28%
-.
-
105
,
:
,
.
.
. .
.
.
.
,
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