© 2015 electric power research institute, inc. all rights reserved. anda ray vp, environment and...

© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Anda Ray

VP, Environment and Chief Sustainability Officer

September 9, 2015

Challenges and Opportunities for

Electric Industries in the 21st Century

2© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI - Born in a Blackout

Founded in 1972 as an independent, non-profit center for public interest energy and environmental research

New York City, The Northeast Blackout, 1965


EPRI’s Science and Technology Portfolio Spans the Entire Electricity Sector

Environment

Transmission & Grid Operations

NuclearGeneration

Distribution & End Use


A Look Back


Yesterday’s Power System

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Bulk PowerSystem

DistributionSystem

One Way Power Flow


Consumers Become Energy Producers

T & D Becomes More Controllable and Resilient

Generation Becomes More Flexible

Loads Become More Interactive and Dynamic

Today and Tomorrow - The Integrated Grid

Two-way Flow


A Look Ahead


21st Century - The Transforming Power System

More Choice and Control with Increased Convenience and Comfort


Apple Entering Home Energy Management

Emergence of Services Enabled by the “Internet of Things”

Home Depot’s Home Automation

Application

Tesla Power WallGoogle Buys NEST for $3.2B,


Perspectives on Disruptive Technology Drivers of the Change: Decarbonization Decentralization Digitization

Consumer Protection & Privacy Energy Efficiency – Affordable to all?

UtilitiesReliable, affordable,

environmentally responsible and safe

Tech ProvidersChoice,

convenience, control and comfort

“Home is a special place – you (a company) needs an invitation to be there” -- nest


A Look Ahead: Energy and Capacity

24 by 7 Electricity

Startup Power

Grid SuppliedPower

Voltage Quality

Supply and Demand


Cost of Capacity and Energy – Grid Connected Services

Variable T&D

Fixed T&D Capacity

$110

$14

$56

$37

$70

$10

$30

Avg. Customer Monthly Charge

Capacity-based Costs

Energy-based Costs

Transmission

Distribution

Generation

Generation Capacity & Services

Energy

$51 $59

$3

Generation (Energy/Fixed Cost) breakdown based on PJM market analysis (2011)

T&D (Fixed/Variable) cost breakdown based on current SCE Implied Cost Estimates (source: E3)


Zero Energy Home = Zero Capacity Home

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Site

Dem

and

(kW

)

Capacity – Grid Supplied

Capacity –Onsite


A Look Ahead: End-Use Energy Efficiency

Residential Commercial

Consumer Electronics

1990s

27” CRT

125 W

2005

55” Plasma

500 W

2010

56” LED

175 W

Plasma Organic LED (OLED)LEDCathode Ray Tube

2012

56” LED

100 W

2013

55” Organic LED

<30 W


Is Energy

Storage A Solution?


A Look Ahead - Energy Storage Applications

Transmission Operator Distribution

Operator

Load Serving Entity Industrial

Customer

Commercial Customer

Multi-Dwelling Unit

Residential Customer

Microgrid/Sustainable Communities

Other Substations

SubstationEnergy Storage

Distributed Resources

Substation

Microgrid

Residential

Appliance/ Device

Large-Scale Renewables

Commercial & Industrial


RCRA/ TSCA(Metals,

groundwater, CCP

disposal/use, spills)

Effluent Guidelines

Fish Protection

CWA 316 (a) (b)

Looking Ahead: Environmental Rules

(Se, Hg, As, other metals, nutrients, B,

TMDLs, WQC)

NAAQS

CSAPR, MATS, Regional Haze

(NOx, SO2

Hg, PM,

Ozone)

111(b), 111(d)

(CH4, CO2

N2O, SF6)

Water

Air Quality

Carbon Control

Solid Waste

Water Consumption

Natural Resources

T&E Species

Land Use

Wetlands MitigationMulti-MediaHolistically – Air, Land and

Water


NY 61%

PA 13%NJ 123%

OR 104%

WA 240%

AZ 54%

NV 33%

UT 6% CO 7%

NM 8%

ID 189%

WY -24%

MT -20%

CA 23%

ND -30%

SD 100%

NE -9%

KS -17%

MN 42%

IA -12%

MO -10%

TX 27%

OK 19% AR 37%

LA 20%

WI 0%MI -1%

IL 3%IN -6%

OH -3%

WV -12%

KY -18%

TN 13%

MS 40%AL 3%

GA 33%

FL 40%

SC 49%

NC 26%

VA 32%

DE 44%MD 12%

RI 9%

ME 42%

NH 60%

MA 48%

CT 48%

VT

≤ 10%

≤ -20%

Change in 2030 Mass Cap in Final CPP (Affected Units Only)

0% ‒ 10%0% ‒ -20%

Clean Power Plan

KY-18%

2030

2022

2016

TODAY

Sept 6, 2016

Turn in State Plan

Sept 8, 2018

Final State Plans Due

2020-2021

Opportunity for Emissions Reduction Credit

2029

2018

2021

2020

2022 - 2029

Three Multi-year Step Downs

Compliance


Source: US-REGEN data; Energy Modeling Forum 24

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets – 80% by 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billi

on to

ns C

O2

eq.


ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

CH4, N20, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks)

Clean Power Plan 32% target

Economy

80% target

Economy 28% target

Electric Sector 80% target



U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets – Electric Sector Cannot Do It Alone

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billi

on to

ns C

O2

eq.


ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

CH4, N20, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks)

Economy

80% target

Economy 28% target

Clean Power Plan 32% target

Electric Sector 80% target

OTHER SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY MUST

REDUCE


NaturalGas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

ElectricityGeneration

Transportation

Industrial

26.3 EJ

9.4 EJ

5.0 EJ

7.4 EJ

7.8 EJ

2.2 BT

1.3 BT

Midstream

Commercial

U.S. Energy and Emissions in 2050

Residential

0.3 BT

0.3 BT

0.4 BT

0.3 BT

0.0 BT

0.2 BT

0.4 BT

Petroleum

40.7 EJ

5.6 EJ

0.0 BT

• Baseline scenario

• AEO fuel prices

• Current RPS levels

Energy Emissions

Other Energy

U.S. Energy – Emissions Transformation: 2050 Reference

Other Energy

Electricity Generation


NaturalGas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear ElectricityGeneration

Transportation

Industrial

10.0 EJ

18.0 EJ

5.0 EJ

40.0 EJ

40.0 EJ

0.4 BT

0.3 BT

Midstream

Commercial

U.S. Energy and Emissions in 2050

Residential0.0 BT

0.1 BT

0.2 BT

0.1 BT

0.0 BT

0.0 BT

0.0 BT

Petroleum

8.8 EJ

0.5 EJ

0.0 BT

• 80% reduction in economy-wide CO2 emissions (from 2005)

• Illustrative results

Other Energy

U.S. Energy – Emissions Transformation: 2050 80% Target

Low- & No- Emission

Technologies

Energy Emissions

Electricity Generation


EPRI-NRDC Environmental Assessment of Electric Transportation Report

Electric Transportation: Medium and Light Duty Vehicles Limited Number of Off-Road

Impact on: Greenhouse Gas Air Quality (Ozone, PM)

September 19, 2015


A Look Ahead: Load Growth

Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Electrification

Advances in electric process heating, separations, and heat pump technologies for emissions reduction and productivity improvement

PEV sales growing faster than hybrids a decade earlier

200,000+ PEVs sold in U.S.

Projected to exceed 5% of new vehicle sales by 2020

Data CentersU.S. data center energy consumption doubling every 5 years

Siting of large datacenters – big wild card

Shale Gas – Industrial Load

Exploration and Refining related Load Growth

Re-industrialization with gas as feedstock (gas to plastics)


A Look Ahead: 21st Century Opportunities

Cleaner EnergyStorage – Bulk to Micro

Electrification Data Server LoadMicrogrids

Energy Efficiency & Automation

An Increase In the Value of...

24x7 Quality & Capacity

Resilient Systems

…To Provide: Comfort, Convenience, Choice and Control


Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

© 2015 electric power research institute, inc. all rights reserved. anda ray vp, environment and...

Documents

quality of power

electric industries

bulk power system

transforming power system

distribution grid

comfort home

todays grid

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