2013. 12

2013-681

,

.

.

.

, , ,

.

.

.

,

.

, EU,

.

,

.

2013

. 125

.

.

.

,

.

-

.

, .

,

.

.

, ,

.

, ,

.

.

,

.

2013 12

...................................................................................... 3

.................................................................................... 13

1 ..........................35

1. ...................................................................... 35

2. ................................................. 39

(1) .............................................................. 39

(2) .................................................. 40

(3) ...................................... 47

(4) .................................... 51

(5) ................................. 55

2 ................................................59

1. ............................................. 59

2. .............................................. 65

3. .............................................. 70

(1) .......................................................... 70

(2) .......................................................... 87

4. ........................................... 99

(1) ...................................................... 99

(2) .....................................................110

3 .............................................125

1. .......................................125

2. ................................................131

(1) ..........................................................................131

(2) ................................................................134

(3) ...................................................................137

(4) ...................................................................140

(5) ..........................................................................142

3. ....................................145

4. ........................................................150

4 ........................................................155

1. .......................................155

(1) ..........................................................................155

(2) ..............................................159

2. .........................................162

(1) ...............................162

(2) ....................................171

.............................................................................................191

............................................................................................195

Abstract .............................................................................................200

........................................................ 42

....................................... 44

.................................................. 45

................................................ 46

.................................................. 48

.......................................... 52

................................... 54

.......................... 61

10 .............................................. 63

2012 ............................ 66

.................. 69

............................................. 72

PV ......................................................... 74

............................................ 74

(2012) ............................75

(2012) .............................................75

................................ 76

.......................................... 77

Top 10 ....................... 78

PV Top 10 ....................... 79

Top 10 ................. 80

........................................ 81

................................. 81

() ......................... 83

............................................. 84

................................................ 88

................................... 90

........................ 90

......................................... 91

FIT RPS .............................................. 91

................................................. 92

................................................ 93

..................................... 95

........................... 96

............................... 97

.............................. 98

......................................................103

..................................103

RHO ........................................................104

10 ............................................105

.......................................................112

12.5 ...............113

12.5 .......................119

....................................................130

......................................................148

SWOT .............................................158

........................................161

R&D ....................................163

..........................168

R&D ....................................173

...............................................173

.................................................178

.................................................................. 38

.......................................... 40

................................................... 49

............................................. 50

................................. 57

.............. 60

.................................. 62

PV ............................................ 64

/GDP .................................... 66

( ) ...................... 67

.............................. 70

6 .................... 71

........................... 73

............................................. 89

........................................ 99

..................................101

...................................106

............................108

(2012 ) ......................111

......................................132

.......................135

...............................139

...............................140

...............................143

..............................146

.......................147

.............................................160

.....................170

......................................181

.....................................183

1

1.

,

,

.

.

2012

,

.

,

14

.

, EU

.

(PV)

.

.

, (Shale Gas)

.

, ,

. ,

.

,

.

.

EU

(CO2) ,

, (PV)

15

. EU

.

,

,

.

2.

( : Photovoltaic Effect)

,

- -

- - - -

- - R&D, , - -

- SWOT - -

16

PV(Photovoltaic), (Solar Power), (Solar Cell)

.

.

,

(Poly Silicon) (Ingot),

.

,

, . ,

, ,

.

(Cell).

,

1 2 3

Si Si III-V Si CdTe CIGS

,

,

,

,

:

17

, ,

.

(Si)

. ,

.

, ,

. ,

,

.

(B2C) ,

(B2G) (B2B)

.

, , ,

, , , ,

, , , ,

,

,

- , ,

,

:

18

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

, .

()

.

,

.

2

1.

2007 1 .

2008

19

.

. IEA 2012

3,510MW 2 .

2006~2008

.

GDP ,

OECD

. 2012 GDP

0.5MW/10 , 0.2MW/10 .

. 2012

7GW . 2010

2012

0.4GW .

, 80%

.

,

, ,

.

.

.

20

1

. ,

2012 2,700MW GCL

8,000MW .

8 .

,

.

.

30% .

,

.

,

5 ( 860)

. 2007

, 2008

.

2.

(1)

21

.

.

, 2012 3.5GW

, 7.0GW 4

.

,

.

2014 10~15GW

2015 35GW 2020 100GW

. ,

.

, 2015

(grid

parity) .

2015 (peak power)

, 2020

.

. 2007

, 2012 21GW 23GW

. EPIA , 2012

35% 1

22

, , 40GW .

80%

.

2012

8( 55% )

. 80%

.

(Sun Tech)

,

.

GCL Sun Tech, Yingli Green Energy,

Trina Solar, Canadian Solar .

, 2012

GCL 1 ,

Daqo, ReneSola 10 .

, ,

10 .

,

.

, 2013 4 Suntech

JA Solar

. 2013

,

23

.

12-5

. 2012

12-5 , 2020

.

, 2012 36.4% 2020

54% .

,

.

, .

(2)

. 2008

, , , ,

. , 2008

2011

.

24

5~20% ,

1% .

2006 21MW 2008

, 2011

2012 279MW . 2015

320MW . ,

2012 1% .

,

.

.

19% ,

.

(FIT)

. 2012 FIT 52%

, 11% .

, (RPS)

.

2000

. 2007 2011

,

25

.

80%, 73%

.

,

.

OCI , ,

. LG

2010

.

2011 ,

.

,

.

.

2008

. ,

2009 1,000 .

23%

.

,

, , CIGS .

26

,

, , ,

.

, 2008

(Si, CIGS, , )

.

,

.

90%

.

, 88.5%

92.3% .

, ,

. , , ,

.

3

M. Porter(1990)

. ,

, ,

,

27

.

.

,

,

.

1 ,

, .

,

2

.

, , (),

.

: 1 ~ 5

4.3

3.9

2.4

2.4

4.3

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.2

/

,

4.8

4.9

2.3

2.8

4.8

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.9

4.3

3.8

2.8

4.9

/

,

3.7

3.8

4.8

28

.

,

,

.

,

.

, ,

LCD

, .

. ()-(

)-()-(

) ,

.

, CIGS,

,

. LCD ,

, .

,

,

.

29

,

.

,

.

,

.

.

,

. 2008

.

2013

, ,

.

2013

, .

,

.

,

.

,

30

.

,

,

.

.

.

,

.

.

-

.

.

.

.

,

.

4

31

.

.

,

.

,

.

.

,

.

,

32

,

.

,

,

.

.

-

.

.

- - - - -

- ^ ^ ^ R&D - - - - ^ ^+ESS

33

.

.

,

.

1

1.

,

,

.

.

2012

,

.

,

.

, EU

36

.

(PV)

.

.

2011 3 11

,

.

,

.

.

2020

(BAU) 30% (2009.11), 2012

(RPS) .

,

.

2012 , EU

.

.

(2009 )

12.5

1 37

.

2012 9 12 5

, 2015 2,100kW

250kWh . 2020

5,000kW .

12.5

, , , ,

.

2012 11 60

, 100 300%.

70

. 2012 ,

.

,

.

,

, ,

.

.

,

38

,

.

,

-

.

.

- -

- - - -

- - R&D, , - -

- SWOT - -

1 39

2.

(1)

. ,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

. , 19C (

), 20C ( ), 21C

( ) .

, ,

.

,

. ,

40

.

2009

, , 5

.

.

,

.

(2)

, (Shale Gas)

: RIETI,(2008.12)

, ,

1 41

. , (CO2)

, , ,

.

,

.

( : Photovoltaic Effect)1)

,

PV(Photovoltaic), (Solar Power), (Solar Cell)

.

(Solar Cell)

, ,

.

(PV energy conversion)

(electron)

.

, 1010

0.6V ,

.

.

1) (electron)

.

42

( )

, ,

( )

. (lighting emitting diode, LED)

, .

.

, , , ,

.

: ,

, : - ,

: ,

:

: ,

:

:

: ,

:

: ,

:

1 43

, ,

.

.

, (Poly Silicon) 2)

(Ingot), .

3)

() .

.

,

.

,

, .

, , ,

. , ,

,

, .

2) (Ingot) (chunk)

, .

3) (module)

(panel) .

44

,

, . ,

,

,

.

,

Upstream Downstream

/

,

,

,

R&D

,

35% 20% 15% 15% 15%

~35% ~25% ~25% ~10% ~8%

:

1 45

.

.

- 200m - : - :

- - : - :

- - : - :

- - : , - :

CIGS

- , - : , - :

- - : - :

- - : - :

- - : - :

:

46

,

, , 4) .

(Si)

. ,

.

,

.

,

,

. CIGS(=CuInGaSe2) ,

, ,

4) 2 ,

1/100 .

1 2 3

Si Si III-V Si CdTe CIGS

,

,

,

,

:

1 47

.

, R&D

.

LCD

, LCD

,

.

.

,

.

(3)

.

(Stand-alone) (On-

grid) ,

(85% ) .

,

48

. ,

,

,

.

1 0.6V 3A . , , . , , Back sheet , , .

(BIPV) . , , , .

BIPV

BIPV( : Building Integrated Photovol-taic System) . .

PCS

PCS(Power Conditioning System) . MPPT(Maximum Power Point Tracker) , DC-DC . () . (array) .

TrackingSystem

(Tracking System) , .

:

1 49

,

,

.

, , ,

,

.

,

, ,

,

: (), (2012)

,

(, )

,

, ,

,,

, ,, ,, ,, ,

,

50

: , (2009)

CVD

Cast

PET/

EVA

Si

SiekSi

a-Si

,

1 51

.

,

. ,

.

.

LCD ,

.

,

.

(4)

. ()

()

, .

, (B2C) ,

(B2G) (B2B)

.

52

, ,

.

,

.

(Solar Cell)

,

.

. 35%, 40%

.

, 5) (grid parity)

5) 1kW

. (grid parity) , ,

, , ..

,

35% 35% 30%

()

15% 40% 45%

: , (2009)

1 53

.

,

,

.

,

6)

,

.

.

,

,

.

.

,

.

, .

,

6) ,

() () .

54

.

.

.

,

.

, .

()

.

.

.

, , ,

, , , ,

, , , ,

,

,

- , ,

,

:

1 55

,

.

()

,

.

,

.

(5)

,

.

,

.

,

.

.

,

56

.

, , ,

.

,

.

.

.

,

.

.

(2011.9.15) ,

.

.

.

,

1 57

.

,

.

.

.

,

.

.

:

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

( )

( )

( )

58

.

30%

. 2013

7~8

.

,

,

.

(SG : Smart Grid)7) (ESS

: Energy Storage System)8) .

.

,

(Value Chain)

.

.

7)

8)

2

1.

2012

. 2012

,

.

EPIA() ,

2012 31.1GW 2011 30.4GW

.9) 2012

100GW 102GW .

,

55% .

9) European Photovoltaic Industry Association(EPIA), Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013-2017, 2013.04

60

, 2011 70%( 22.4GW)

, 2012 55%( 17.2GW) .

2012

.

, 2012

.

EPIA 2017 ,

10) 2017 2012 1.54 48GW

10) (FIT) , FIT

: MW

: EPIA,Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013-2017, 2013.04 : ROW : Rest of the World, MEA : Middle East and Africa, APAC : Asia Pacific

ROW 88 56 80 77 29 10 105 42 76 80 284 508

MEA n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a 1 1 22 46 121 410

China 10 5 10 10 10 8 10 20 40 160 500 2,500 5,000

America 24 32 47 66 104 106 150 213 346 543 1,029 2,179 3,758

APAC 117 140 191 230 282 303 324 271 535 742 1,583 2,672 4,769

Europe 56 133 135 202 707 984 992 2,028 5,710 5,830 13,622 22,411 17,159

Total 303 365 471 584 1,133 1,411 1,582 2,575 6,708 7,376 17,064 30,391 31,095

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

303 365 471 5841,133 1,411 1,582 2,575

6,708 7,376

17,064

30,391 31,095

2 61

, 11) 2.7 84GW

.

2012

.

2011,

.

.

2011 1,

2012 ,

.

11) (FIT) ,

(Sun Belt) FIT

: MW

2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe 129 2,289 3,281 5,310 11,020 16,850 30,472 52,884 70,043

China 19 70 80 100 140 300 800 3,300 8,300

Americas 146 501 650 863 1,209 1,752 2,780 4,959 8,717

APAC 355 1,500 1,825 2,096 2,631 3,373 4,956 7,628 12,397

ROW 751 1,003 1,108 1,150 1,226 1,306 1,590 2,098 2,098

MEA na 1 1 2 3 25 71 192 601

Total 1,400 5,364 6,946 9,521 16,229 23,605 40,670 71,061 102,156

: EPIA,Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013~2017, 2013.04 : ROW : Rest of the World, MEA : Middle East and Africa, APAC : Asia Pacific

62

2012 , 7.6GW

25% . (3.5GW), (3.3GW),

(3.3GW) .

,

, .

, , (MENA).

(Sun Belt) .

, ,

: MW

: EPIA,Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013~2017, 2013.04 : ROW : Rest of the World, MEA : Middle East and Africa, APAC : Asia Pacific

MEA 410 660 920 1,300 1,000 2,400 1,500 2,700 3,400 4,500 6,050

China 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 15,000

America 3,758 5,720 6,660 8,700 11,210 12,730 8,000 9,100 12,500 15,390 16,590

APAC 4,769 5,730 6,940 8,680 9,510 10,360 10,590 12,480 14,290 17,000 19,050

Europe 17,159 9,710 9,290 10,080 11,710 12,810 16,780 18,360 21,450 25,380 27,550

Total 31,095 27,810 30,810 36,830 42,330 48,300 46,960 52,640 62,640 74,270 84,240

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

27,810 30,810

36,830 42,330

48,300 46,96052,640

2015

62,640

74,270

84,240

31,095

Historicaldate

EPIA Business-ss-Usual EPIA Policy-Driven

2017201620142013201720162015201420132012

2 63

.

,

2 .

, ,

. ,

, , .

,

. 2013

,

.

, .

10

2012 installations (MW) Total installed capacity (MW)

1 Germany 7.604 Germany 32.411

2 China 3.510 Italy 16.250

3 Italy 3.337 USA 7.221

4 USA 3.313 Japan 7.000

5 Japan 2.000 China 7.000

6 France 1.079 Spain 5.100

7 UK 1.000 France 4.003

8 Australia 1.000 Belgium 2.567

9 India 980 Australia 2.400

10 Greece 912 Czech Republic 2.085

: IEA,New Snapshot of Global PV 1992-2012, 2013.04

64

2012 4 , 8

.

,

, 2012 LDK, Sunteck

, First Solar 2012 4

2,000 .

,

.

High

Low Country investment attractiveness

PV

attr

activ

enes

for

coun

try

PV

: IEA,New Snapshot of Global PV 1992~2012, 2013.04

Increasing PVOpportunity

High

2 65

.

.

, , ,

,

,

.

2.

,

2007 1

. 2008

.

.

IEA 2012

3,510MW (7,604MW) 2

. 2006~2008

. 2012 252MW

.

66

GDP ,

OECD

. 2012 GDP

0.5MW/ , 0.2MW/

. 2.19MW/ 1,

.

,

. 2012

2012

: MW

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -

PV

7,604 3,510 3,337 3,313 2,000 1,079 1,000 1,000 980 252

: IEA,New Snapshot of Global PV 1992~2012, 2013.04

/GDP

: SNE Research, , , 2013.2

2.19

(MW/10)

1.16

0.59

0.45

0.38

0.22 0.20

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Installation/GDP

2 67

7GW .

2011 6 2 4

. 2010

, 2012

0.4GW .

.

80% .

.

,

, ,

( )

: : IEA(2013.4), (2011.2, 2013.9)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013e

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

(, GW)

68

. 2012

.

.

.

1 .

IEA , 2012

56,000 65,000 .

,

2,700MW GCL 8,000MW .

8

.

, ,

.

,

.

,

,

.

2 69

,

.

30%

.

,

, 16

. , 10

.

.

---()-

.

,

5 ( 860)

. 2007

, 2008

( 2012) ( 2012)

65,000Ton 45,000Ton

8,000MW (GCL Solar) 2,690MW

2,800MW (JA Solar) 1,775MW

23,000MW 2,857MW

: (2013.9), IEA(2013.4), EPIA(2013.4)

70

. 2009

1,000 .

3.

(1)

1)

, , ,

.

.

: (2013.1) : 2012 1 , 1Watt

A

B

0.18

0.18

0.25

0.35

0.14

0.15

0.3

0.35

0.87

1.03

(us)

2 71

.

,

.

,

5 70%, 10 86%

. 10 ,

, 5

. ,

.

2012 3.5GW

6

: REN 21, Renewables 2013 Golbal Status Report, 2013.6 : 2012 ,

China

United States

Germany

Spain

Italy

India

Gigawatts 0 10 20 30 40

90

86

71

31

29

24

60 70 80 90

0 0 0 0Windpower

SolarPV

Bio-power

Geothermalpower

C5Pand ocean

50

72

12), 7.0GW 4

. 6.6GW 5 ,

0.4GW .

,

. 2013 6GW

13GW .

2014 2

, 2014

10~15GW 2015 35GW

12) 2012 (4.5~5.0 GW) ,

(grid connection)

.

: GW, %

()

()

2012 2011 2012 2011

1 32.4 24.8 7 4.0 2.9

2 16.4 12.8 8 2.7 2.1

3 7.2 3.9 9 2.4 1.4

4 7.0 3.5 10 2.1 2.0

5 6.6 4.9 * 1.1 0.8

6 5.1 4.9 - 13.0 6.4

100 71

: REN 21, Renewables 2013 Global Status Report, 2013.6 : * EPIA(Global Martket outlook for PV 2013~17)

2 73

2020 100GW .

,

.

,

(Ground Mounted LS-PV) 2012 2,000MW, 57.1%

.

(Building PV) 41.7%

, (Rural Electrification),

.

6

, 2015

(grid

parity) .

2015

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2.7

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

3.50

PV

Ins.

(GW

)

Annual Inst. (GW) Cumulative (GW)

6.0010.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00

14.00 15.00

100.00

85.00

71.00

59.00

47.0035.00

23.0013.007.003.50

74

(peak power) , 2020

.13)

. 2007

, 2012 21GW 23GW

. EPIA , 2012

13) IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

PV

2012

(MW)

(%)2012

(MW)

(%)

1 Rural Electrification 20 0.57 102.5 1.5

2 Comm. & Indus. 10 0.29 58.0 0.8

3 PV Products 10 0.29 57.5 0.8

4 Building PV 1,460 41.71 2,390.0 34.1

5 Ground Mounted LS-PV 2,000 57.14 4,392.0 62.7

3,500 100,0 7,000.0 100.0

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cumulative Installation(GWp) 0.10 0.14 0.30 0.80 3.30 7.00

Module Pricd(CNY/Wp) 36.0 30.0 19.0 13.0 9.0 4.5

System Price(CNY/Wp) 60.0 50.0 35.0 25.0 17.5 10.0

Reasonable Tariff of PV(CNY/kWh) 3.20 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.15 1.00

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2 75

35% 1

, , 40GW .

80%

.

2009 2012

65,000 .

2012 60,000, EU 50,000, 45,000,

(2012)

: %

C-Si Cells C-Si TF

35 78 71 73 12

17 8 5 13 18

28 1 2 3 14

APAC 20 13 22 11 56

100 100 100 100 100

27 80 66 69 6

20 7 5 14 20

34 1 2 4 12

APAC 19 12 27 13 62

100 100 100 100 100

: EPIA,Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013~2017, 2013.04

(2012)

EU

() 60,000 50,000 13,000 45,000 65,000 7,000 240,000

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

76

13,000 .

2012

8( 55% )

. 80%

. 2009

50%

.

Sun Tech

,

.

GCL Sun Tech, Yingli Green Energy,

Trina Solar, Canadian Solar .

2012 Yingli 2,100MW

1 , Canadian Solar, Sun

Tech, Trina Solar .

, 2012

GCL 1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

() 300 1,100 4,729 20,357 45,000 85,000 65,000

() 4,000 10,000 25,000 40,000 89,000 145,000 145,000

() 3,700 8,900 20,271 19,643 44,000 60,000 80,000

(%) 92.5 89.0 81.1 49.1 49.4 41.4 55.2

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2 77

, Daqo, ReneSola 10

.

OCI 4 , 2011 10

2012 10 .

10 9

. GCL 1

, 6 .

,

JA Solar, Yingle, Trina Solar 3

. 2012 1,300MW

: MW

2011 2012

1 Sun Tech Power 2,090 1,800

2 Yingli Green Energy 1,603 2,100

3 Trina Solar 1,510 1,800

4 Canadian Solar 1,323 1,900

5 Tianwei New Energy 900 1,000

6 Hanwha Solar One 844 1,000

7 Jinko Solar 760 900

8 LDK Solar 600 750

9 JA Solar 500 900

10 Hareon Solar 428 800

11 Others 10,422 10,050

21,000 23,000

:IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

78

10 .14) PV

10 . 2012 Suntech

Yingli PV

.

15) 10

, 5 Suntech, JA Solar, Yingli

. 3% 10

.

14) Suntech

.

15) .

Top 10

(2012) (2012)

() () ()(MW)

1 GCL() 65,000 GCL() 8,000

2 Wacker() 52,650 LDK() 4,300

3 Hemlock() 50,000 Yingli() 2,450

4 OCI() 42,000 ReneSola() 2,000

5 REC() 22,400 Jiangxi sornid hi-tec() 1,600

6 MEMC() 12,500 Nexolon() 1,500

7 Tokuyama() 9,200 Jinglong Group() 1,500

8 Daqo() 7,300 Huantai Silicon() 1,500

9 M.Setek() 7,000 Jinko Solar() 1,200

10 ReneSola() 4,000 Xian Longi Silicon() 1,190

: (2013.9)

2 79

,

.

, 2013 4 Suntech

JA Solar

.

,

2011 . Yingli, Trina

Solar 2011

.

Suntech 2012 500%(40),

PV Top 10

(2012) Solar PV (2012)

()(MW)

()(MW)

1 JA Solar() 2,800 Yingli() 2,200

2 Yingli() 2,450 First Solar() 1,900

3 Trina Solar() 2,400 Suntech Power() 1,800

4 Hareon Solar() 1,870 Trina Solar() 1,800

5 Suntech Power() 1,800 Hareon Solar() 1,700

6 First Solar() 1,700 Canadian Solar() 1,600

7 Motech() 1,500 Hanwha Sloarone() 1,300

8 Canadian Solar() 1,500 Jinko Solar() 1,200

9 Sun Power() 1,300 Sharp() 1,050

10 Hanwha Sloarone() 1,300 Sun Power() 1,000

: (2013.9)

80

LDK 1,350% (54) . 2013

,

.

(MOST)

, 5

.

(, , ,

, , CPV, , BOS

) .

Top 10

(2011) Project Developer(2012 )

(%) ()(MWp)

1 First Solar 7.4 First Solar() 7.4

2 Sun Tech 7.3 Juwi() 7.3

3 JA Solar 6.3 SunEdison() 6.3

4 Yingli 5.6 Active Solar() 5.6

5 Trina Solar 5.3 Belectric() 5.3

6 Canadian Solar 4.5 Huanghe Company() 4.5

7 Motech 4.2 Solarhybrid() 4.2

8 Gintech 3.7 CECEP() 3.7

9 Neo Solar 3.3 China Guodian Corporation() 3.3

10 Hanwha Sloarone 3.2 SunPower() 3.2

: Solar PV (REN21, 2013), (2013.9)

2 81

:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2Q

Yingli 1,896 421 2,332 -428 1,828 -405 550 -21

Canadian Solar 1,495 120 1,898 6 1,294 -142 380 12HanWha SolarOne

1,145 179 1,019 -174 590 -189 193 -19.9

Trina Solar 1,857 417 2,047 30 1,296 -264 440 -24

SunPower 2,219 138 2,374 -534 2,417 -287 576 31

Wacker 4,748 803 4,910 611 4,635 258 1,150 -

JA Solar 1,784 300 1,705 -66 1,078 -231 258 -5.4

First Solar 2,564 746 2,766 434 3,369 439 519 39

: (2013.9)

R&D at both Laboratory level and industry level

Poly-silicon industry level BOS AND PV systems

Hydrogen Reduction

60 kWh/kg

Inverters

Total Capacity 3 GW/Year

Total Power Consumption

120 kWh/kg Types

off-grid, centralized,

string inverter, micro-inverter

By-products Recycling

100% Power Range 100 W-1 MW

Capacity/Factory

1,000~60,000 Ton/Year Energy

Storage

Lead-Acid Industrialized

Total Capacity 100,000 Ton/Year Lithium Battery Industrialized

()

82

2) 16)

12-5(2011~15)

. 2012

(NEA) 12-5 , 2020

.

16) IEA(PVPS annual report 2012) .

R&D at both Laboratory level and industry level

Poly-silicon industry level BOS AND PV systems

Cost $15-20USD/kg

Energy Storage

Vanadium Redox Battery

Industrialized

Efficiency of solar cellls Na-S Battery No

PV CellsLaboratory

(%) Industry

(%) Flywheel No

Mono-Si 20.40 19.00 Super-Capacitor Industrialized

Poly-Si 18.00 17.00 Pumped Storage Industrialized

D-Junction a-Si 9.20 8.00 Compressed Air Storage

No

u-Si/a-Si M-Junction

11.80 10.00

PV Systemss

Off-grid PV Mature

GaAs 29.25 No LS-PV Mature

CIGS 14.30 12.00 PV Buildings Mature

CdTe 13,38 11.00 Sun Trackers Mature

DSC 7.40 No Micro-Grid Demonstration

HIT 17.27 No PV Products Mature

Back-Contact No No Monitoring Sys. Mature

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2 83

, 2012

36.4% 2020 54% .

,

.

, .

(RE Law, 2006.1.1 )

,

.17)

FIT(Feed-In Tariff;

17) RE (Surcharge) 0.8cents/kWh 200~250

(20-25 BCNY) , Special RE 100~200 .

()

: GW

2012 2015 2020

(Distributed PV)

Rural Electrification 0.102 318.2 6.92

Communication and Industry 0.058 100.0 2.17

PV Buildings 2.390 14.0 40.0

(LS-PV)

PV Products 0.058 1.0 4.0

Large Scale PV(LS-PV) 4.392 15.0 40.0

Solar Thermal Power(CSP) 0.000 1.0 2.0

7.0 35.0 100.0

(%) 36.4 51.4 54.0

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

84

LargeScale PV

Phases Approved Capacity Feed-in Tariff

2011 FIT 2,000 MW FIT = 1.15 CNY/kWh

2012 FIT 2,000 MW FIT = 1.0 CNY/kWh

Total (2009-12) 4,300 MW 800 MW waiting for

grid connection

Financial Source Renewable Energy Surcharge

PV BuildingProject

Phases Approved Capacity Subsidy to Capital

(CNY/W)

3rd phase, 2011 106 projects, 120MW BIPV 12 CNY/W

4th phase, 2012 250 MW BIPV 9 CNY/W,

BAPV 7.5 CNY/W

Total (2009-12) 500 MW

Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy

Golden SunDemonstration

Phases Approved CapacitySubsidy to Capital

(CNY/W)

3rd phase, 2011 140 projects, 690MC-Si 9.0 CNY/W, a-Si 8.5 CNY/W

4th phase, 2012 167 projects, 1,709 MWPV Building

5.5CNY/W, off-grid >7.0 CNY/W

Total (2009-12) 2,870 MW

Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy

Additional PVBuilding Projectand Golden SunDemonstration

Phases Approved Capacity Subsidy to Capital

(CNY/W)

November 2012 2,830 MW BIPV 7 CYN/W,

BAPV 5.5 CYN/W

Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy

2012 10,500MW

: IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

2 85

)

.

, PV Building Project, Golden Sun Dem-

onstration .

3)

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

, .

2012

,

86

.

2013 3 Sun Tech()

(), LDK

. ()

5 4,100 (CB)

.

2 () LDK

,

. () () LDK

100% 1.2 , 3.3 .

, EU

EU 2013 6

,

EU 2013 7 27

.

(Watt) 0.56 , 7

(GW) , 2015

. 90(

70% ), EU

, EU 47.6%

.

EU 15

2 87

,

.

, EU

47.6% .

-EU

,

. (ProSun)

, (ECJ)

.

EU EU

.

(2)

. 2008

.

,

, , , ,

88

.

, 2008 2011

.

2012 56,000, 2,690MW

. 2012 1,775MW,

2,857MW ,

.

5~20%

, 1% .

2006 21MW 2008

, 2011

2012 279MW . 2015

320MW .18)

2.6%

18) IEA 2012 252MW

.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.

(Ton) 5,000 16,500 36,200 57,800 56,000 53,000

(MW) 430 535 1,270 2,890 2,690 2,420

(MW) 146 726 1,180 2,040 1,775 1,580

(MW) 300 910 1,860 3,154 2,857 2,783

: (2013.9)

2 89

. 2000 1.1%

2011 2.75% . 25.5%,

12.6%, 6.3%, 3.7%

.

2012 1%

. 2012

(RPS)

,

.

,

.

: , 2012 , 2013

Annual Comulative

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

(MW)

90

.

19% , 16%,

9%, 6.9% .

.

(FIT)

. 2012 FIT 52%

, 11% .

: MW

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013e 2014e 2015e

21 45 278 170 131 92 279 330 330 320

: (2013.4), (2013.9)

: %

2.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.2

3.4 3.6 0.7 2.7 1.4 7.5 0.4 0.8

4.5 2.9 3.4 6.9 19.0 9.0 16.0 29.0

13.8 10.5 10.2 2.1 14.6 3.8 4.8 19.7

: , 2013 , 2013 : , toe

2 91

, (RPS) 19)

.

2012

, 1 FIT 10

19) 2012 , FIT RPS .

2012

(MW)2012

(MW) (%)

5.5 28.3 3.0

2.0 12.5 1.3

18.9 61.6 6.4

32.5 28.3 11.5

0 500.0 51.9

RPS 149.7 179.7 18.7

RPS 0 69.7 7.2

208.6 962.8 100.0

: (2013.2)

FIT RPS

(MW) () (MW) ()

FIT(02~11) 1,028 2,089 497 1,979

RPS(12) 842 1,165 337 1,790

: , , 2013.8

92

80%

. 2014~15 150MW

1.2GW 1.5GW

.

, 2000

.

2007 2011 ,

.

80%,

73% .

2011 ,

.

() () ()

14,563 9,854 5,105

10,660(73%) 7,917(80%) 4,594(90%)

2,456(16%) 1,008(10%) 488(10%)

722(5%) 745(8%) 22(-)

184(1%) 36(-) -

203(1%) 43(-) -

338(2%) 105(1%) 1(-)

: (2012) (2013.9) : 2011

2 93

,

.

. OCI ,

,

. LG 2010

. ,

.

.

. ,

OCI 2011 42,000

, 2012 2 4, 5

. SDI

, LG LG

2007 2011 2012()

() 30 98 -

() 1,279 10,660 8,500

() 4,410 79,170 50,430

() 142 4,594 3,000

() 3,660 42,049 31,173

: SNE (2013.2), (2013.9)

94

.

, KCC , KAM

.

. 2012

(Q-Cell)

.

.

. LG , LST

,

, .

. CIGS

.

.

.

. ,

2 95

.

2008

. ,

2009 1,000 .

23%

.

(MT)/

(MW)

(MW)(MW)

OCIOCI

(42,000)(693)

OCI()

LCC/

KCC/KAM*(6,000)

(370)

(320)

/*

(4,800)

(182)

(150)

(50)

*

(7,000)

(600)

(10,000)

(800)

(13,000)

(15,900)

(10,000)

SDI

(150)

LGLG(10,000)

LG LGLG CNSLG

: , , 2012 : * 2011 , KCC, KAM, , .

96

,

, CIGS, .

,

, , , ,

.

, 2008 (Si

, CIGS, , )

.20)

,

.

90%

.

20) , 2012 .

:

2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2013 2Q

OCI 26,064 7,166 42,759 11,179 32,185 1,548 7,804 -236 7,157 177

4,513 480 5,882 -226 3,769 -1,003 892 -139 818 -53

2,306 121 1,953 40 2,254 187 395 13 729 28

1,603 574 3,134 263 1,430 -1,068 254 -117 317 -56

2,107 213 1,936 -365 1,556 -416 165 -62 284 -54

: (2013.9)

2 97

~2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(3.5%)

50 18 58 71 96 84 86 30 29 35 557

18 10 43 59 61 52 40 4 4 10 301

68 28 101 130 157 136 126 34 33 45 858

(26.2%)

368 75 145 183 305 311 639 550 514 420 3,510

339 62 134 160 289 309 548 431 395 247 2,914

707 137 279 343 594 620 1,187 981 909 667 6,424

(23.1%)

228 51 91 150 191 171 567 706 844 768 3,767

147 19 36 54 109 111 293 332 395 422 1,918

375 7037 127 204 300 282 860 1,038 1,239 1,190 5,685

(14.2%)

140 19 83 109 173 169 175 375 405 416 2,082

91 56 22 41 62 97 94 328 315 326 1,395

231 56 105 150 235 266 269 703 720 742 3,477

(2.7%)

121 19 108 19 32 31 48 37 87 55 467

32 9 10 8 13 16 25 21 33 17 184

153 28 28 27 45 47 73 58 120 72 651

(5.3%)

190 29 42 42 77 67 50 84 129 174 884

103 13 17 16 42 30 16 35 48 89 409

293 42 59 58 119 97 66 119 177 263 1,293

(5.4%)

115 41 50 39 62 61 94 68 67 92 689

126 30 33 21 21 36 129 174 27 31 628

241 71 83 60 83 97 223 242 94 123 1,317

(11.3%)

171 6 23 28 138 157 106 5 11 214 859

111 5 10 12 144 226 533 - - 886 1,927

282 11 33 33 282 383 639 5 11 1,100 2,786

(2.2%)

15 12 22 22 33 46 40 36 77 69 371

9 5 8 8 11 17 14 12 24 52 160

24 17 30 29 44 63 54 48 101 121 531

()

98

.

,

. ,

, ,

: %

90 65 60 75 51 60

70 73 40 70 70 30

: , (2011)

~2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(0.6%)

7 4 7 9 6 14 7 4 12 28 98

2 2 2 5 7 10 5 2 2 7 44

9 6 9 14 13 24 12 6 14 35 142

(1.8%)

12 3 2 6 10 32 17 35 78 97 292

2 4 - 1 5 13 19 16 36 49 145

14 7 2 7 15 45 36 51 114 146 437

(3.9%)

104 35 45 117 34 66 123 127 148 68 867

- 2 2 40 4 12 17 12 10 - 99

104 37 47 157 38 78 140 139 158 68 966

1,519 330 588 794 1,158 1,209 1,953 2,056 2,400 2,433 14,440

980 180 317 425 769 928 1,733 1,366 1,289 2,135 10,122

2,499 510 905 1,219 1,927 2,137 3,686 3,422 3,689 4,568 24,562

: , 2012

2 99

.

,

88.5%

92.3% .

4.

(1)

1)

,

.

: ( ), Solar Energy, 2012.10

100

90

80

70

60

(=100 )

90.889.9

88.591.1 92.3 90.5

100

.21)

, ,

,

.

2004 12

.

, ,

, ,

. 1997 10

2(2003), 3(2008)

.

2008 8

3

12

.

2010 10 , 2011 10

. 10 ,

,

21) , 1987 12

, 1997 12

. 2004 12

.

2 101

.

4

R&D , ,

,

.

2013 7 30

, 2013 10 31

.

2013 2 4

2013 .

4 2030 11%

. ,

,

: , , 2013.3

()

07 09 11

101 3,6611.2

6.3193

10,3954.7

26.8

2.2 4.0 8.3 7.7224 14,5639.9 51.1

07 09 11 07 09 11 07 09 11

() () ()

Value Chain

102

( ),

( ),

( )

.

2) (RPS)

RPS

. 500MW

, .

2012 2% 2022 10% .

RPS (FIT)

2012 ,

2013 8 .

,

,

. 2014~15 2

RPS .

, (RHO)22)

22) Renewable Heat Obligation( )

2 103

: MW

2012 2013 2014 2015

220 330 330 320 1.2GW

- - (+150) (+150) 0.3GW

220 330 480 470 1.5GW

: , , 2013.8.26.

() 2015 1.2GW2015 1.5GW(+300MW)

( ) 100MW*

( ) 30kW 1.0 1.2

150MW * 30% 100kW

() 500 ,

( )

*, *

(, ) () LNG

() 3

: , , 2013.8.26.

104

2016

.23)

1 ( : 10%)

.

,

.

23)

. (RHO) (13.6.114.5.31), (13.4.114.3.31).

RHO

()

1980 2000.8 2009.1 2006.12

, , 27m

( )

50m2

, ,

60%

15~ 50%

50%

: , 2013 , 2013.8.

2 105

3)

, 10 .

10 . 2012

, RPS

-

.

10

10

1 Green Post, , 2,746 ,

, ,

2 Green port 28 , ,

3 Green School11, 462 , ,

, ,

4 Green lsland ( 132)

, ,

5 Green Logistics (700)

, ,

6 Green Industrial

Complex(40), (347), (396), (6),

, ,

7 Green Highway(167), (6 , 49 , 305 )

, ,

8 Green Army , ,

9 Green Factoty (215,591) , ,

10 Green Power , (229)

, ,

106

, .

. 2020 10% ,

2014 320 2017 400

. ISO

, ( ,

, ) ,

10

.

, .

.

. 1996 2012 7,000

2,200 . 2013 259, 2014

: , , 2013.3. : 2012 .

60.27%

2.25%

16.88%

18.74%

(toe, 61,169toe)

04~12 166,068 (5,594)

70,984

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,181 7,467

50,456

10,021

60,572

93,991 96,045 88,99198,365

54,663

37,68419,153 29,859

()

60%

0.04%

1.82%

2 107

285 . ,

. 1,000m2

, , 10%

. 5%

2011 4 24) .

2014 15%

.

4)

, 2014 3

. , , 3

.

, , ,

.

, .

(2007) (2011)

.

.

,

24) 12.

108

. 2009

KS .

2010~2012 5 .

, .

.

2005~2012 8,578 .

A/S

. 2013

8 3

,

.

, .

: , , 2013.3.

685,4%

7,794,49%

1,942,12%

2,746,17%

423,3%

563,4%

523,3%

511,3%

421,3%

325,2%

2 109

.

,

,

75%

. 2011

.

5)

,

. R&D ,

R&D .

, ( , )

, (,

) .

, .

R&D

. ,

.

, R&D

R&D .

110

R&D

.

(2)

1)

. ,

,

.

, ,

.

2012 677 24%( 8%)

25)

. IEA

.26)

, ,

25) 2012 651 356 .

World Resources Institute, ChinaFAQs Short take(Oct.30, 2013)26) IEA 2012~18 40%

(Renewable Energy : Midium-Term Market Report 2013, 2013).

2 111

. ,

24% .

,

,

.

.

2012 8 6 12.5

.

2013 1 12.5

. 1

(2012 )

: , 2013. 11.16.

24.0%

17.7%

EU( 15) 9.8% 5.4%

5.2%

3.8%

303

112

2015 11.4%, 2020

15% ,

12.5 2015

9.5% .

(2013.2.7.), 12.5

(2012.12.28.) .

2015

30% ,

20% .

1 2010 (66%),

(18%), (12%, ), (3%),

(1%) . 200

. 2010

18%( ) 2000 17%

.27)

27) (2013) , , 2013.3.

: %

2011 2.75 8(2010) 3.7

2015 - 11.4 -

2020 11(2030) 15% 10

: World Resources Institute, ChinaFAQs : Renewable Energy In China - An Overview, July 16. 2013.

2 113

12.5

/

1. 1) ( ) 2) 3) 4)

39,400 kW 12,030 kW/h 39,000

26,000 9,100 29,580

10,000 1,900 6,180

2,100 250 810

1,300 780 2,430

800 480 1,500

200 120 370

300 180 560

2. 1) 2)

220 1,750

5,000 215 1,700

1,000 5 50

3. 1) 2) 3)

6,050

40,000 4,550

200

1,500

58,000

120

4. 1) 2) 3)

1,000

1,000 500

400 350

100 150

47,800

: , 2012 , 2013.2.

114

2)

, .

.

.

(),

,

.

.

, , , ,

.

, 50km 100km

. ,

kW 4,000

.

,

kWh 1 2013

8 3 ( ) 0.9~1

.

.

2 115

20

. 4

.

3)

. 100

2000 . ,

30

. ,

.

(golden sun)

.28) 2009 ,

,

. 2012 2

. ,

20 ,

50~70% , 20MW .

28) http://baike.baidu.com/view/2488458.htm#refIndex_1_2488458

116

4) 29)

2011~15

. 6% 2020

2011 1.8, 2011~20 6.9%

.

2020 2015 2 ,

2020 2015 6

.

.

()

12.5(2012. 9. 12)

2015 2011 7 . 12.5

2,500

1.5% .

5)

,

.30) R&D ,

2013 10 ,

29) 2012 .

30) , (2013.9.16.)

2 117

.31)

, 2013 10 1 2015

50% .

.

17%, 8.5% 1kWh

0.2~0.4 .

, 2013 8 1

.32)

.

.

6)

12.5 ,

.

31) 3% R&D

1000 (1.63 ) . .

3000, 5000, 200MWp,

50MWp.

32) http://finance.chinanews.com/ny/2013/07-31/5106367.shtml

118

12.5

.

,

3~5 .

12.5

,

,

.

,33) 2015 ,

.

, ,

, , , , ,

. , ,

.

12.5

, ,

, ,

.

33) http://finance.chinanews.com/ny/2013/07-31/5106367.shtml

2 119

12.5

12.5

2015

-

- 1000 (1), 500 (3~5)

2015

//

,

1

150~160

- ,

-

- - ,

40% 500

BIPV(

) BIPV

BIPV ,

-

-

100 KW

,

:

120

.

95%

.

11.5

. 2020

15% , 50%

.

12.5 1.6 kW

4000 kW, 7400 kW

. 2015 2.9 kW

( 64%) 2020 4.2 kW

.

2009 34)

. 2010 ,

2020 2.3 kW

34) 75GW 60GW .

World Resources Institute, ChinaFAQs - Short Take(Sep.12, 2013)

2 121

() 13 . 2015

1 kW , 1900

kW/h(2020 3,900kW/h) .

. 1

. ,

, 20

.

.

.

.

. ,

,

. ,

, .

, , , ,

.

122

(, , , , )

, , , .

.

, 12.5

, ,

,

. ,

(, , , (inverter) )

.

.

3)

5

.

, ,

.

. ,

,

, ,

.

2 123

.

.

R&D R&D

, R&D--

.

,

.

( ,

), ,

.

, ,

(FIT) 2012

(RPS) .

(LS-PV) PV

.

.

, ,

.

.

, .

124

.

,35)

,

. , FIT RPS

.

RPS .

,

. ,

, .

, ,

.

35)

(2013.5) . , ,

, ()

.

3

1.

, M. Porter (1990) The

Competitive Advantage of Nations (in-

dustry competitiveness determinants) .

,

Porter (1990) (demand conditions),

(factor conditions), (related and supporting indus-

tries), (firm strategy, structure, rivalry)

.

.

,

126

.

,

.

.

.

.

.

, ,

.

.

, .

3 127

.

,

.

.

,

.

(selective factor disadvantage)

,

.

,

. .

, ,

.

,

.

(value chain)

. ,

128

.

.

(value chain)

,

.

.

,

. ,

,

.

,

.

.

, ,

.

.

3 129

,

.

,

.

,

.

(government drivers)

. , FTA

,

,

,

,

.

36)

36) 2012

2013 .

130

, 2013

.

.

,

,

, ,

,

R&D R&D

,

,

R&D ,

,

,

,

, ,

,

,

3 131

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

37)

, 5 (5= 1=

) .

32 .

2.

(1)

,

,

.

37) , , TP, ,

..

132

.

.

,

.

(B2C) ,

(B2G) (B2B)

.

,

. 2012

67%38)

38) Bloomberg New Energy Finance, THE FUTURE OF CHINAS POWER SECTOR (August 2013) p1.

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

2.8

2.9

4.64.1

3 133

.

2030

44% .

,

, .

,

.

.

, EU, ,

, 2013

. ,

.

.

.

,

.

2013 Yingli

.

, .

134

Trina

. , , ,

.

,

.

JA Solar , OEM

.

.

.

,

.

OCI

. .

(2)

,

.

, ,

.

.

,

3 135

.

.

,

.

2012

, 2013 6

,

. ,

.

2013

.

, .

,

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

2.2

3.1

4.3

4.3

0.0

R&D

R&D

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

4.3

3.6

4.5

3.8

0.0

136

.

,

.

.

,

.

Yingli

.

Golden Sun

.

, 2012

.

, KCC, ,

.

,

.

,

M&A

.

2013

, .

3 137

, .

R&D

. ,

.

.

(3)

,

, (array) ( 60%)

, , (

25%) .

15% .

,

, ,

.

,

.

(Upstream)

(Downstream)

138

,

.

, , ,

.

,

.

,

, , LG,

. , LG ,

, LCD,

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

3 139

.

2008

80% 350 ,

. 1

, ()

95% .

,

, 2008

.

, ,

,

.

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

3.3

4.6

3.1

4.2

0.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

4.8

4.8

4.2

4.9

0.0

140

(4)

.

.

, , , , ,

.

.

R&D

. P-

(Perl) , ,

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

4.3

4.9

4.3

4.8

4.3

3.2

0.0

4.0

5.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

3.4

5.0

4.1

3.9

4.6

4.3

0.0

4.0

3 141

.

2013 ,

. R&D ,

.

.

.

2014 , 2008

6

.

()-()-(

)-()

,

.

,

.

2012

. LGKCCOCI

.

142

,

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

.

. ,

.

,

.

, ,

.

(5)

.

2012 5

. ,

3 143

,

.

.

.

2015 5

,

(Targeted & Temporary Support)

.

RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)39)

39) 2012

, RPS (Renewable

Portfolio Standard) . RPS

, .

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.03.2

4.7

2.3

4.3

0.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.04.9

3.2

4.9

4.5

0.0

144

,

, R&D ,

.

2013 7 15,

.

.

2012 9 12

5 2015 20GW

, 35GW .

2012 ( 6.9GW)

, 2013~2015

10GW . 2012

3.5GW.

,

.

.

. ,

, .

, (Golden Sun project,

) , 2011 FIT

. ,

,

3 145

.

,

.

3.

1 ,

, .

, 2

.

,

.

,

,

.

.

, CIGS,

,

. LCD ,

,

.

146

.

.

,

.

,

.

.

,

: 1 ~ 5

5.0

2.0

1.0

3.4

3.9

4.6

1.6

4.3

2.6

0.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

2.0

1.0

4.9

4.4

3.0

4.9

3.4

4.9

0.0

4.0

3.0

3 147

: 1 ~ 5

/

,

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.93.9

2.4

4.3

4.8

2.4

4.3

4.2

/

,

4.3

2.8

3.8

4.9

2.3

4.8

2.8

3.7

3.8

4.8

4.9

148

.

(Rent)

.

,

, ,

.

.

, 2013

.

, ,

.

()

2012

(MW)

2012

(MW)

PV(%)

2012

(Kton)

252 981 0.2 45

3,510 7,000 0.1 65

: IEA, New Snapshot of Globla PV 1992-2012(2013.4), IEA, PVPS annual report 2012, (2013.04).

3 149

(), LDK .

,

.

FIT() .

2009 BIPV

.

.

2011 FIT , 2012

.

2013 FIT ,

FIT 4

.

, 20%

kWh 0.75 1. ,

2 0.85 , , , 3

0.95 . , , , , 4

1.0 .

,

.

, kWh 0.35 .

150

kWh 0.5,

0.9 ,

.

.

,

, .

. , AI

. Ag, EVA,

. EVA

, .

, ,

.

,

LCD

, .

,

.

4.

,

3 151

.

,

.

.

(Value Chain)

,

.

()

(, )

. ()

,

.

, , ,

,

.

R&D

,

.

, ,

.

LCD

152

.

OCI .

, , ,

,

.

,

.

,

.

Suntech()

.

,

. 2008

50% ,

70~90% .

.

,

, .

3 153

.

,

.

,

.

.

,

.

(FIT : Feed-in Tariff)

. ,

.

.

2012 (FIT)

(RPS)

.

, .

RPS

154

. , 25~30

,

,

.

,

.

.

.

. ,

.

(Open Innovation)

.

.

.

,

.

.

4

1.

(1)

, , , LG,

.

.

2008

.

,

156

.

,

,

.

2012 RPS

. ,

.

, ,

,

,

.

,

.

,

, R&D

. R&D

, .

,

, ,

.

,

4 157

,

,

.

,

, .

,

.

3 ,

BIPV(), CPV()

. 3

,

BOS(Balance of System) ,

BIPV, CPV .

SWOT

,

,

.

. ,

.

,

, .

,

,

158

,

.

, ,

, ,

.

,

, .

LCD

,

.

SWOT

(Strength) (Weakness)

- - , - , LCD - - -

- - - , - - - -

(Opportunity) (Threat)

- - - - -

- - - -

:

4 159

,

.

,

.

, ,

. , ,

.

(2)

,

.

.

,

.

,

,

.

.

, ,

160

.

.

,

.

.

-

.

.

.

,

4 161

, ,

, ,

.

.

,

.

- - - - -

- R&D - - - - +ESS

162

2.

(1)

1)

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

,

.

LCD R&D

,

.

4 163

.

.

.

.

, .

R&D

.

R&D

( )

- , LCD R&D

- - , ,

-

-

( )

- R&D - -

:

164

2)

.

,

.

.

,

,

.

,

.

R&D

. ,

,

.

,

.

,

,

4 165

.

,

.

3)

.

,

,

-

.

, ,

.

,

.

.

,

.

.

,

166

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

.

,

. R&D

.

4)

.

.

.

4 167

,

,

.

, (vertical in-

tegration) ,

.

.

.

,

, .

.

,

.

, ,

.

, ,

, , ,

.

, ,

168

- .

, .

.

.

, , , ,

, , .

.

,

,

.

,

,

:

4 169

,

.

5)

.

.

.

,

. ,

.

.

,

, ,

.

,

.

,

170

LED (ESS) ,

LED

,

.

,

,

.

LED ,

.

. ,

.

- ( )

( )

- , ESS LED

-

-

-

- -

- -

- -

, ,

:

4 171

--

3

.

(2)

1)

2000

.

, .

.

2013 , ,

,

,

. ,

.

172

Si ,

, ,

Si , CIGS, (DSSC)

.

, ,

.

40)

Si , CIGS, (DSSC) 3

.

2013 CIGS .

R&D .

. LCD

, (CIGS, a-Si, ) R&D

.

(DSSC)

.

(, , ,

) R&D

.

40) 2010 ( ) R&D 2011 .

4 173

(, )

.

R&D

- (Sun Belt) , .

- (BIPV ) , , , , 2015 30%

- (CIGS, a-Si) LCD R&D

- () ,

- LCD

- (, , , ) R&D

- (, )

- : , ,

- : ,

- : - : ,

- : - : , - , : ,

174

R&D ----

(Value chain) R&D

. , , , ,

R&D

.

,

R&D

.

R&D

, ( )

. ,

,

,

.

(R&D)

,

.

,

.

4 175

,

.

,

.

.

, ,

.

.

, ,

, .

.

----

.

.

,

.

.

R&D

176

R&D ,

,

.

,

,

.

.

,

.

.

R&D

,

,

. ,

,

.

3

4 177

(linear model) .

, ,

.

,

CIGS, . R&D

,

.

.

.

, .

R&D

.

.

.

,

178

.

R&D

(bottom up)

.

.

,

.

.

(top down)

.

,

.

,

SDI

,

(KIST )

(, )

:

4 179

.

.

,

.

R&D

.

,

,

.

2013

,

R&D .

2)

.

.

.

,

180

.

,

(time to mar-

ket) (Power of Product Innovation)

.

, , ,

,

,

.

.

,

,

.

,

.

(B2G) .

() ,

(, value capture)

.

.

,

. R&D

4 181

.

,

.

.

,

.

.

,

, .

:

,

182

3)

. 2013

.

.

.

.

2012 RPS41) ,

.

. 100 ,

.

RPS

, .

.

41) 2012

RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard)

.

4 183

4)

,

.

.

,

.

: IEA, Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2010

,

184

.

.

20 , 1MW 30

. 10

, ,

.

.

, (PF : Project Financing)

. ,

.

R&D

.

(FIT), (RPS), , .

(VC), R&D (grants), .

(guarantees), .

. , R&D

, ,

, , .

4 185

R&D

.

(commecialization)

,

.

, ,

. ,

, (resource assessment) ,

(developer) ,

.

, ,

.

.

.

. .

, ,

.

.

, ,

186

.

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

--

.

.

, .

(total solution)

.

,

.

, ,

.

,

.

4 187

5)

, .

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

188

.

.

,

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

, .

,

.

,

,

.

4 189

+ESS

(ESS : energy storage

system)

.

ESS

.

.

ESS .

ESS

. ESS

.

ESS

.

.

,

.

.

190

(ESS)

.

+(ESS)

. ODA

.

+ESS LED

.

ESS LED

.

.

ESS

.

ESS .

191

1.

, ,

, 2013.5

, ,

, 2013.5

, ,

, 2013.5

, , 2012

, 2013

, 2013.8.

^ ______, , ,

, 2013.5.28

______, , 2013.8.26.

, 2 , LG,

2013.7

(2013) ,

, 2013.3.

, 3 (2009~

2030), 2008.12.

______, Solar Energy, 2012.10

______ ,

2011.2

192

, 2013 ?, 2013.4

______, - 2014 ,

2013.9

, 2012 , 2013

______, 2013 , 2013

______, , 2013.3

______, , 2012

, R&D

, 2013.2

______, ,

, 2012.6

______, , 2011

, ,

2013.2

______, , , 2013.9

______, ,

2011.2

,

, , 2013

SNE , , , 2013.2

2.

, 2010

, , 2009

193

RIETI, , 2008.12

NEDO,, 2012.3

(), , 2012

, 2012 , 2012.10.

, , 2013.9.16.

, (

12 5 )

,

, 2013.7.31.

CREIA, China Solar PV power policy report: Differntial feed-in tariffs,

2103.4

CSIS, Chinas Competitiveness Myth, Reality, and Lessons for the United

States and Japan - Case study: Suntech, 2013.1

EPIA, Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013~2017, 2013.4

IEA, Renewable Energy: Midium-Term Market Report 2013, 2013

______, PVPS annual report 2012, 2013.4.

______, New Snapshot of Global PV 1992-2012, 2013.04

______, Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, 2010

______, Trends in Photovoltaic Applications Survey report of selected IEA

countries between 1992 and 2011, 2012

Kyung-Hoon Yoon, National Survey Report of PV Power Applications

in Korea, IEA, 2011

M. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations, 1990

194

REN 21, Renewables 2013 Golbal Status Report, 2013.

______, Solar PV , 2013

World Resources Institute, ChinaFAQs: Renewable Energy In China - An

Overview, July 16. 2013.

______, ChinaFAQs - Short Take, Sep.12, 2013.

______, ChinaFAQs - Short take, Oct.30, 2013.

, www.motie.go.kr

, www.enecho.meti.go.jp

, www.etnews.com

, biz.chosun.com

, www.kemco.or.kr

, www.kopia.asia

CREIA, www.creia.net

KOTRA, www.globalwindow.org

, www.nikkei.com

196

?

,

.

, .

, .

.

:

: (tel : 02-3299-3190, joody@kiet.re.kr)

(tel : 02-3299-3032, donhy@kiet.re.kr)

(tel : 02-3299-3106, jkkim@kiet.re.kr)

: Fax : 02-3299-3225, e-mail : joody@kiet.re.kr

()

/

E-mail

( )

197

1. () ( )

() ?

1) ~ .2) 2013 .3) .

< >

(, )

,

, ,

,

R&D R&D

,

,

R&D R&D ,

,

,

,

, ,

()

198

2. ( )

?

1) ~ .2) 2013 .3) .

/

,

,

,

199

3. ( )

?

1) ~ .2) 2013 .3) .

4.

.

!!

Abstract

An Analysis on Competitive Structure and

Cooperation between Korea and

China in Solar Photovoltaic Industry

Song Wookyong et al. (swkyong@kiet.re.kr)

Since 1990, renewable energy sources have grown at an average

annual rate of 2.0%, and growth has been especially high for solar

photovoltaic as a clean energy, which grew at average annual rates of

46.2%. Currently, China gets about 8% of its primary energy from re-

newable sources. Chinas 12th Five Year Plan sets out a specific goal

of 11.4% of total primary energy from non-fossil sources by 2015,

Abstract 201

and 15% by 2020. China has been following up on its goals with

significant investments in renewable energy, including over $65 bil-

lion invested in 2012. It is now also the worlds largest producer and

installer of some renewable energy technologies, and invests more in

renewables than any other nation.

However, global economic crisis and exploitation of shale gas

which is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas,

blocked its fast growth. Chinese companies as well as Korean are

carrying out a large-scale restructuring and suffering from the depres-

sion and price reduction. In this situation, Korea and China need to

pursue new development paths with meaningful and complementary

cooperation.

The contents of this study can be divided by two parts : 1) Analysis

on the competitiveness between two countries by value-chain, and 2)

Suggestion of cooperative strategies regarding cooperative and ben-

eficial sustainable growth.

In the study on competitiveness by value-chain, China has a edge

in the field of cell and module except polysilicon, showing the global

dominant position in the downstream sector. Also, Its industrial base

is concentrated in the crystalline silicon PV. In contrary, Korea suc-

ceeded in the industrialization rapidly through the vertical in-house

strategy from polysilicon(raw material) to electricity service(system).

Furthermore, Korea is moving ahead in thin-film PV technologies on

the basis of LCD production experience and a lot of intellectual prop-

202

erty.

Considering future prospects for renewable energy, this study aims

to reveal new cooperation strategies which can improve the competi-

tiveness with harmonization of energy policy and industrial policy.

AIso, in this study we suggest some strategies in order to overcome

current industrial crisis. It needs to intensify the improvement of

technological cooperation between two countries. Joint projects by

operating the fund of industrial development will contribute to the

deepening of industrial partnership. It is desirable for two coun-

tries to lead de facto standard of the PV technologies jointly, as the

high global position is favorable to the them. Exchange of tech-

nical professionals should be expanded and activated by the way

of internship or joint start-ups by the bilateral specialists, between

firms or research institutes. Two countries can jointly exploit the

global markets through establishment of supply chain. That means

the vertical partnership that Korea has charge of material and compo-

nents, while China can supply the parts and system. Korea should

improve the thin-film PV technologies which consider as a post PV.

R&D investments aimed atlarge-scale and high efficiencyshould be

strengthened by government utilizing the superior infrastructure es-

tablished by technologies bases of LCD and secondary battery.

New financial support should be introduced for promotion of overall

value chain, considered that profits for PV business needs more 20

years. New business models should be diffused. It should expand

Abstract 203

the panel installation for house and business opportunity for cou-

pling system of PV and ESS.

Finally, we hope this study can be helpful for both policy makers

and those who design and build the next strategies for improving

competitiveness in renewable energy.

2013 12 24

2013 12 27

1983 7 7 6-0001

130-742 66