© 2007 t soja & associates, inc. 1 5 th annual caribbean internet forum 5 - 7 november 2007...
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© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 1www.tsoja.com
5th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum5 - 7 November 2007 St. Lucia
Caribbean InfrastructureInvestment in the
Fiberoptic Submarine Cable Sector
Thomas A. Soja, President
T Soja & Associates, Inc.Boston, MA USAwww.tsoja.com
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 2www.tsoja.com
Agenda
• The “Old” Network vs. the “New” Network
• Bandwidth Demand Growth Drivers
• Market Connectivity & Systems Supply
– Activities in the BRICs, OECDs and ACPs
• Caribbean Projects
– Recent investments and announcements
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 3www.tsoja.com
Older Cable InfrastructureUnable to Support Broadband-Driven Future
Circa 2002
Courtesy: AT&T
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 4www.tsoja.com
Growth Drivers
• Competition
• Technology
– Fixed line
– Broadband
• DSL, HFC, Fiber
– Wireless
• Free Space Optics, WiFi, WiMAX
– Mobile
• Voice, increasingly broadband data capable
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 5www.tsoja.com
Caribbean Teledensities
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Fixedensity
Mobidensity
Overall Average
Adjusted Average Source: www.ipoaa.com/caribbean and CIA World Fact Book
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 6www.tsoja.com
Caribbean Mobile Subscriber Growth
Informa: Mobile and WirelessOpportunities in the Caribbean– 3rd edition
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 7www.tsoja.com
Households, Businesses, Mobile Teledensity in the Caribbean
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Caribbean Population
Mobile Subscribers in the Caribbean
Households
Carib. Pop. Mod
~2 million Internet Households ~400,000 businesses
~5 million Internet HH
( millions)
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 8www.tsoja.com
The Promise of Wireless / Mobile Broadband
85 kbps
1,000 kbps
10,000 kbps
100,000 kbps
1 kbps
10 kbps
100 kbps
1,000 kbps
10,000 kbps
100,000 kbps
1,000,000 kbps
2.5G 3G WiMax / EV-DO A, B 4G
Peak Download Speed
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 9www.tsoja.com
Mobile Subscribers, Penetration and Mobile Broadband in the Caribbean
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Caribbean Population
Mobile Subscribers in the Caribbean
Carib. Pop. Mod
BB Mobile Users
( millions)
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 10www.tsoja.com
Implication for Upstream Capacity
2.6 Gbps 54 Gbps 1,000 Gbps
12,600 Gbps
0 Gbps
2,000 Gbps
4,000 Gbps
6,000 Gbps
8,000 Gbps
10,000 Gbps
12,000 Gbps
14,000 Gbps
2007 2010 2015 2020
Caribbean Backbone Bandwidth
`
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 11www.tsoja.com
Caribbean Competitiveness• Global positioning
• BRICs vs. OECD vs. ACPs
• ICs– Multiple high-capacity cables in queue
• Africa– Multiple initiatives under development
• Pacific Islands– Long-thin routes being addressed
• Caribbean– Recent developments timed just right
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 12www.tsoja.com
Recent Investment
• Cable Networks– GCN 2006– Antilles Crossing 2006– Fibralink 2006– MCN/SCF 2007– Trinidad-Curacao 2007
• Approximate CapEx:
US$100-150 million
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GCN-1 (RFS Jan-2006)
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Antilles Crossing Phase 1 (RFS Mar-2006)
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FibraLink (RFS Mar 2006)
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MCN (RFS Feb 2007)
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SCF (RFS June 2007)
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Prospective Investment
• Cable Networks– CFX-1 2008– SAm-1 ext. 2008– Transbit (Venezuela-Cuba) 2009
• Approximate CapEx:
US$100-150 million
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CFX-1 and Trinidad ExtensionCFX-1
• Announced May 2007• RFS Q2 2008• 2,400 rt-km
Curacao-Trinidad• Announced 2006• RFS Q4 2007• 1,000 rt-km
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Transbit Cable (Venezuela-Cuba)
• Announced Sept 2007• RFS 2009• 1,552 rt-km• 160 Gbps capacity
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 21www.tsoja.com
SAm-1 Extension (Puerto Rico-Colombia)
• Announced 2007• RFS 2010 (est.)• 1,400 rt-km• Permitting stage
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Antilles Crossing Phase 2
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Multiple Ring Resilient Infrastructure
Other announced systems
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 24www.tsoja.com
Conclusions
• Real progress over past 5 years
• Timing took advantage of lull in systems supply
• More systems about to be built
• Local access shows viable path to dramatic
improvement
• Scale needed – apps, content & customers
• Still more to come
© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 25www.tsoja.com
T Soja & Associates, [email protected]
+1 617 787-0100 (tel)
+1 617 283-7362 (mob)
2 November 2006
Thank you !
5th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum5 - 7 November 2007 St. Lucia