zlato, your golden investments. 2 pascal dubey, 2007 pascal dubey, independent wealth manager +...
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ZLATO, Your Golden Investments
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Pascal Dubey, 2007
Pascal Dubey, Independent Wealth Manager
+ Certified Expert in Finance and Investments
+ Master in economics HEC University ofLausanne
+ Member of the Swiss Financial AnalystsAssociation
+ Was several years First Vice-President at the executive committee of a bank
+ Speaks French, English and German
+ P. Dubey is allowed to open directly accounts in CZ with 8 major Swiss banks
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Jump into gold !
1. Gold history and market
2. Where do we go ?
3. How to invest ?
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Gold : the most important commodity with oil
• Strategically, gold is one of the two most important commodities (with crude oil) on the planet, but its role as the ultimate store of value and method of payment has been forgotten by many investors.
• In today's world of massive deficit spending, inflating currencies (i.e. excessive growth in the money supply) and financial imbalances, gold's monetary role is reasserting itself.
• Investment demand for gold is increasing and the remonetisation of gold has begun.
• Alan Greenspan, in justifying the US's decision to continue holding gold reserves, said in 1999: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. Paper money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."
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Why invest in gold ?
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A new fashion in Prague ?
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Gold versus paper assets
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Supply and demand for gold
Estimated demand in 2010 : 5’000 tonnes.
Estimated mine supply in 2010 : 2’000 tonnes
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Supply and demand for gold
Dem
andS
upply
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2. Where do we go ?
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The commodity bull cycle
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What drives the gold price?
• The value of gold has been subject to intense debate for centuries.
Baron von Rothschild commented:
"I only know of two men who really understand the true value of gold –
an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris and
one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they
disagree".
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In 2006, gold returned 22.8%
Average price in 2006 versus 2005 : +35%
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Another golden run ?
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China holds 2% of world gold reserves
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The problem of double-counting of gold
• Gold loaned by central banks that has subsequently been sold into the
physical market:
• "In particular, gold may be double-counted with either a gold swap or
gold loan/deposit if the party acquiring the gold were to on-sell it
outright, because both the original owner and the outright purchaser
would report ownership of the gold".
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Gold market fundamentals
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Strong increase of ETFs
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Gold mines : attractive valuations
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Multiple compression
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2006 : brilliant results for the gold mines
• February 22nd, 2007. Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer,
and Newmont Mining said profits surged in the 4Q as the price of
bullion jumped. Barrick’s net income doubled to $418 million or 48
cents a share from $ 175 million or 32 cents a share a year earlier.
• Newmont, the world’s second largest producer, said net income tripled
to $223 million or 49 cents a share from $62 million or 14 cents a
share a year ago.
• Barrick overtook Newmont with its acquisition of Placer Dome in March
2006.
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Corporate activity affecting the portfolios
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Gold versus trade-weighted dollar from 1971
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Correlation with oil ↑, with US$ ↓
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A weaker Dollar in 2007
• As US housing weakens, so too will consumer spending
• Weak consumer spending points to lower profits
• …and hence slower GDP growth…
• …which reduces inflationary effects…
• …and points to interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve…
• …lower bond yields
• and a weaker dollar
• Forecast by David Bloom, Global Head, Foreign Exchange Strategy, HSBC
Global Markets (November 2006)
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Gold contango and its components, 1978 – 2006
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Gold spot price, March 9, 2007
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Threats
• A dollar stronger than expected
• A lowering commodity boom
• Lower energy prices
• An increasing gold contango
• A diminishing inflation
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Many positive factors for gold
• Production of gold peaked in 2001 and is declining since.
• Central Bank sales are capped by the Gold Agreement.
• Some “dollar heavy” Central Banks such as China may add to holdings.
• Demand from jewellery is again increasing.
• Miners have continued to reduce the size of hedge books.
• Gold ETFs are growing – proving demand is persistent.
• The trend in the dollar remains generally weak.
• Investors continue to seek out diversifying asset classes, including gold.
• Inflation concerns are still on.
• Geopolitical tensions remain latent.
• Attractive gold mines valuation.
• M & A activity should keep on growing.
• Technical analysis is bullish.
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Technical analysis
The 50 DMA crosses over and above the 200 DMA = very bullish sign in the medium term
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Raymond James is increasing its price forecast
Raymond James 2007 Estimates : US$ 581 / oz.
Lehman Brothers 2007 Estimates : US$ 575 / oz.
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Bullish !
• The main specialists are bullish :
UBS, Crédit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Black Rock Merrill Lynch,
CA Chevreux, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch, Citigroup and
Motherearth Report expect a price of gold between
US$ 700 and 900 / oz for 2007.
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3. How to invest ?
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Gold has a negative correlation to the equity markets
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10 ways to invest in gold
Physical
1. Gold coins and bars
2. Allocated or unallocated gold accounts
3. Gold certificates
4. ETFs
Mines and physical
5. Gold oriented funds
6. Equities of gold mines
7. Baskets
8. Futures and options
9. Hedge funds
10.Stuctured products
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Valuation of a company (Goldcorp Inc.)
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Valuation of a company (Goldcorp Inc.)
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Producers versus junior mines
• Investment philosophy includes seeking low valuation, high intrinsic value, and
low market capitalization relative to reserves and resources.
• The fund must place emphasis on management. Exploration success is a people
business.
• Company selection requirements include listing on major exchanges, geographic
location, risk diversification, sound balance sheet, investor relations strength and
superior assets.
• Junior producers and exploration companies are the engines for wealth creation in the minerals industry, with over 75% of all new discoveries coming from juniors.
• Junior mines : in order to evaluate them, the best funds have their own geologists.
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From junior to producer
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The very best investment funds
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A large choice of structured products
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> Innovate with an expert in investments
• Switzerland : security of your bank
• BvB : leading position since 18 years
• Pascal Dubey : your expert in investments
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Sources
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BvB : The unmatched solution in the Czech Republic
Our offices : GENEVA, LAUSANNE, GIBRALTAR
1989 1997 1999
Legal form: Partnership (partners have unlimited joint and several liability for the company’s obligations = full
commitment)
Clients: Private & Institutional
Staff: 25 = 11 asset managers + 3 analysts + 11 assistants
Assets: Equivalent of CZK 40 billion under management
Regulation: Member of the Swiss Association of Asset Managers
P. Dubey: is allowed to open directly accounts in CZ with eight major Swiss banks, like UBS and Crédit Suisse
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Independent wealth management in Switzerland
• The independent wealth managers account today for over 15% of the
total wealth managed in Switzerland. Their market share is growing
much faster than the banks. The principle is simple, discreet and
extremely safe, it is very common in Switzerland and pretty new in the
Czech Republic : the client chooses himself his banks of deposit and
BvB manages his investments through these banks. For instance in
the Czech Republic, Pascal Dubey is allowed to open directly accounts
with eight major Swiss banks, like UBS and Crédit Suisse. He has a
direct IT link with these banks. It is important to note that BvB is fully
independent from the banks in its decisions of investments and buys
only the best products according to the will of each client. This
independence is the key for BvB’ clients. So there is the guarantee of
the bank with the service and performance of an independent. Very
personal indeed !
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Our Banking Partners ↔ Safety & Independence
Depository Banks best suited to your needs:
1. UBS (staff: 70’000)
2. Credit Suisse Group (staff: 65’000)
3. Julius Bär (staff: 3’500)
4. Pictet & Cie (private bankers for 201 years, staff:2’200)
5. Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch (private bankers for 210 years, staff:1’800)
6. Mirabaud & Cie (private bankers for 187 years, staff: 500)
7. Clariden Leu (belongs to Credit Suisse Group, staff: 1’800)
8. Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (State guaranteed for 150 years, staff: 2’000)
Analysis and products from the major Swiss and foreign banks :
+ HSBC, Barclays, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank,
Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, etc. + brokers and funds managers
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Macro-economicanalysis
CurrenciesInterest
ratesAnalysis of
economic cycle
Strategic allocationof portfolio
Bonds, EquitiesStructured products (capital protected)Alternative investments, Real estate
Commodities, Fiduciary depositLombard credit
Risk profile
Objectives :• Private and professional• Medium and long term
• Currency• Fiscal impact
Analysis of economic cycleAnalysis Return / Risk
Tactical allocationof portfolio
Bonds, EquitiesStructured products
Alternative investmentsReal estate
Commodities, Cash
Your portfolio
BvB & CieYour specific needs
Only an independent is able to offer such a large choice• We receive daily all the research and the products from the major
international banks and brokers
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We can discuss various personal proposals
Convertible bonds
Cash
Bonds
Alternative investments
Real estate
Commodities
Equities
Proposal C
Proposal B
Proposal A
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15% 18% 20%
Risk
Exp
ecte
d r
etu
rn
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Investment proposalFor the Strategic allocation, we discuss :
- Your personnel objectives
- Your tax situation to invest accordingly
- Your monetary allocation
- Your part of capital protected
Bonds
Convertible bonds
Equities
Alternativeinvestments
Real estate
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Wine fund
Funds of Hedge funds
Capital partially protected
Capital 100% protected
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Investment funds
Single bonds
0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Investment funds
9.4% JPM / YY
9% Barclays/ XXX
13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19%
Single shares
Investment funds
0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Owner’s properties
direct
Investmentfunds
Cash
0%
Bonds
30%
Convertible bonds
6%
Equities
33%
Real estate
6%
Alternative investments
25%
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Specific products and objectivity of choice
• Search and development of creative and original structured products, taking into consideration :
the market trend your specific need and preferences
Guaranteed capital? Guaranteed return? Currency of reference? Duration? Tax situation?
• Setting in competition of the emitting banks in terms of products and fees
• Diversification of the emitting banks
• Products’ follow-up and active management of the positions
• Constant dialogue and regular review of your objectives
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Supervision ↔ For Your Peace of Mind
SFBC : Swiss Federal Banking Commission.
Administrative authority, independent of the Swiss National bank, in charge for the supervision of the banks and the financial markets in Switzerland
SBA : Swiss Banking Association. Association which gathers the banks and defends their interests. It promotes the conditions frameworks and codes of conduct for the Swiss financial centre in the world
SAAM : Swiss Association of Asset Managers.BvB is voluntarily a member of SAAM which provides our client with the guarantee that we will run our business impeccably
Auditor : Controls the respect by BvB of the code of conduct of the ASG, then defers to the ASG
BANK : The banks, where you choose to deposit your assets, control the risk and the operations executed by BvB on your portfolio. The banks are regulated by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission
SFAA : Swiss Financial Analysts Association.Pascal Dubey is a graduate of SFAA and is held to follow the rules of "best practice" (code of conduct) with ethics as a key element
SBASAAM
BvB
SFBC
BANK
YOU
Auditor
SFAA
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Real independent Private Banking in Cz : you & us You You profit from our client approach, forget about mass market,
I am an independent directly interested in your own goals
Discretion You need a discreet and reliable partner, you decide the way we communicate and how often I report, I am fully committed and I remain with you for the long term
Safety You choose the best banks, you keep full control of your deposit,
Performance You benefit from our full independence in our choices, I have a global view and select the very best banks and products
Tax optimisation We invest according to your tax situation. In accordance with the local laws, we can also create a structure in Switzerland, in Gibraltar or elsewhere
Network You share our privileged contacts, some of the most reputable experts in the field of law, taxation, property, art and companies
Professionalism You will appreciate to get the best of both worlds: the safety of your bank + our independence
Thanks to our leading position, you have a VIP accessto solutions suited to your specific needs with a quick decision making process and an efficient service
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“Our independence is your asset.
Are we your solution ?”
Pascal Dubey, +41 21 345 10 00, [email protected]
Berger van Berchem & Cie
Geneva – Lausanne – Gibraltar