zambia’s forest reference emission level for the unfccc
TRANSCRIPT
Zambia’s Forest Reference Emission Level for the UNFCCC
Presented at the Global Landscape Forum, COP21 on the 5th November 2015
Deuteronomy Kasaro1 and Abel M. Siampale2
1Climate Change SecretariatMinistry of Finance
2Forestry DepartmentMinistry of Lands
Presentation Structure
a. REDD+ Requirements
b. Technical Assessment for FREL
c. Scale, Scope and forest definition
d. FREL Components and Construction
e. Construction Approach for FREL
f. Challenges and consideration for Scale and Scope
Surface Area:
Forest Cover:
Vegetation Type:
Plantations:
Deforestation rate:
Drivers:
752,614Km² with a population of 13million
49.9 million ha (66% of land cover)
Maily Miombo woodlands: Semi-evergreen forests; Deciduous Forests; Evergreen forests; Shrub thickets, grasslands, wooded grasslands
61,000 ha
250,000 to 300,000ha per annum
Unsustainable agricultural practices; Charcoal and wood fuel use; Timber production; Infrastructure development (includes mining)
Background Information
Zambia - Geographical Location
Zambia’s Provinces & Major River Basins
The Four Elements of REDD+
4/CP.1512/CP.1713/CP.19
4/CP.1511/CP.19
1/CP.1615/CP.19
12/CP.1712/CP.19
Some initial direction for REL/RLs• REDD+ in Zambia should be nationally owned and help meet national objectives
• Align with UNFCCC, as possible. Consider other guidance, within capacity and consistent with national circumstances.
• Measuring performance should be more than just GHG emissions
• The focus should not be to only access carbon finance (multiple sources will be sought, both domestic and international; need for external support; importance of adaptation)
• A global contribution can follow a nationally-focused program; similarly finance will be attracted if Zambia can demonstrate results
• Consider a hybrid approach; can be dynamic, change over time
• Wait and see approach for submission to UNFCCC, while improving data and information
Purpose of a FREL
Domestic purpose: To measure the impact of policies and measures taken to protect forests
International finance: Countries are invited to voluntarily submit FRELs to be technically assessed “in the context of results-based payments”.Developing parties seeking to obtain and receive payments for results-based actions to supply a technical annex to the Biennial Update Report. A technical team of experts will analyze consistency of the reported results with the assessed FREL.
Global mitigation contribution: The FREL may be used to help measure Zambia’s “intended nationally determined contribution” (INDC) to the UNFCCC
Scale, scope and forest definition
Scale and Scope
Scale: National
Activities: Deforestation only
Pools: AGB, BGB, deadwood
Gases: CO2 only
Infrastructure development
•Settlements•Urban expansion
Wood extraction
•Charcoal production•Wood fuel collection•Logging
Agricultural expansion
•Shifting cultivation•Agriculture extensification
Environmental factors
•Uncontrolled fires
DIRECT or PROXIMATE DRIVERS
UNDERLYING DRIVERS
Policy & Legal framework
•Inconsistencies•Weak
Socio-economic
•Poverty•Low employment opportunities•Insecure land tenure
Demographic
•Population growth•Immigration•Population density
Institutional
•Poor funding•Low staffing levels•Lack of transport•Low staff morale
Environmental
•Climate variability•Soils•Topography
Forest LOSS
Forest Definition
Forest Act No 4 of 2015
FREL components and construction
• National Scale
• Historical Average
• Stratified according to Carbon Map 5 Classes (AD * EF)
• No adjustments for national circumstances
Construction approach
Forest Reference Level(average historical emissions)
Emission Reduction
historical emissions
Start REDD+ implementation
Forest Reference Emission Level (A benchmark for assessing performance)
Zambian Carbon Map
Overall accuracy: 85.63%
Zambia’s 2010 land cover map for GHG inventory development
Activity data
With compliments of
•Forestry Department (FD – MLNREP)
•Survey Department (SD – MLNREP)
•National Remote Sensing Center (NRSC)
•Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD)
•Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
www.zmb-nfms.org/portal
1. Image pre-processing
2. Collection of training data
3. Classification Iterative improvement of training dataset
4. Export, cleansing and area computation
Change Detection: iterative process
credit: R. d’Annunzio18
Combine datasets
2010 land cover map 2000 - 2010 forest loss 2010 - 2014 forest loss
Final map 2010 - 2014
Results of loss detection (Preliminary)
Hectares
Results loss detections and AA (Preliminary)
Construction methodology of the FREL
Pros Cons
Uses full set of data May not predict well (i.e. underestimate) expected BAU emissions from 2015-2020
Option 1: Reference period 2001 - 2014
MtC
O2e
q
Pros Cons
Easier to perform againstA better reflection of the future emissions from deforestation?
May be considered too short a reference period (average of submissions to date is around 10 yrs)
Option 2: Reference period 2011 - 2014
MtC
O2e
q
Construction methodology of the FREL
Pros Cons
Compromise between Option 1 & 2; a 9-year period is within the range of what is generally accepted
No spatially explicit data for years 2006 to 2010.
Option 3: Reference period 2006 - 2014
MtC
O2e
q
Construction methodology of the FREL
Pros Cons
Easier to perform againstA better reflection of the future emissions from deforestation?
Data is not available to quantify expected emissions in the future
MtC
O2e
q
Option 4: Adjustment (projection)
Construction methodology of the FREL
Zambia FREL
The proposed FREL suggests the best estimate at this time of emissions associated with land use change (forest to non-forest) in Zambia, for the near future, amount to an annual rate of
16.49 MtCO2 e/yr-1
National circumstances
• Energy demand• New districts• Infrastructure development• Mining activities• Rural to Rural migration• Policy and Legal Reforms
Forest Act / Forestry Policy Urban and Regional planning Act
Key Challenges to data Needs• The cost of satellite images (i.e. high res.) to
support a wall to wall approach to cover the country
• Appropriate technology and methodologies which are sustainable
• The level of forest loss to be assessed (deforestation, degradation, fires)
• Varying forest types in the country
Approaches to historical Forest Degradation
• Zambia has not yet addressed this issue because an appropriate methodology [for dry forest (Miombo)] has not been identified
Considerations for selecting Scale and Scope
• Capacity to undertake the work and monitor the change
• The approach for REDD+ Implementation• Availability of data• The need to track the changes and
implementation of activities
Way forward• Proposed future Improvements
Additional land use assessment – Option 3 (2006) Measuring degradation Including gain & regrowth Additional pools
Soil Carbon Litter
Including emissions from fire, including non-CO2 gases (Collaborate with ZEMA)
National Circumstances Monitoring, Assessment, Quantification
Thank you for your attentionwww.zmb-nfms.org/portal