ZAMBIA PRACTICES IN ZAMBIA PRACTICES IN MANUFACTURING STATISTICSMANUFACTURING STATISTICS

Republic of ZambiaRepublic of Zambia

Central Statistical Office

Manufacturing Statistics workshop4th to 7th May 2009

Nkandu Kabibwa

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Overview of Zambia• Organisational structure of the CSO• Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and

produced by CSO ( Focus on IIP)• Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP• Data Sources for IIP• Periodicity of the IIP• Main users of IIP Zambia• Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing

statistics (IIP)• Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics• Way forward

Zambia - GeographyZambia - Geography

Zambia - DemographicsZambia - Demographics

• Surrounded by 8 other countries• Total area: 752, 000 km2

• Populated by 12.5 million people• Copper remains the main export (70 %)• Per capita GDP: US$1,181.53 (2008 prelim.)• Economic growth rate: 6.0 % (2008 prelim.)

and averaged around 5.8% in the past 5 years

• Inflation rate: 14.3 % (April 2009)

Organizational Structure of the CSOOrganizational Structure of the CSO

• The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP)

• Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official statistics

• The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia

• The CSO is divided into 4 subject matter divisions namely;• Agriculture & Environment Statistics• Economic & finance Statistic• IT & dissemination• Population and demography

• Each Division is headed by a deputy Director

Economic Statistics Division

DEPUTY DIRECTOR

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

EXTERNAL TRADEINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

PRICES & CONSUMPTION

STUDIES

PUBLIC FINANCE

LIVINGCONDITIONS

The industrial statistics branch is mandated to collect and compile manufacturing statistics

Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and produced by CSO (a focus

on IIP)

Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and produced by CSO (a focus

on IIP)• The quarterly Index of Industrial

Production (IIP)• This is a quarterly volume index which

covers» manufacturing, » mining and quarrying, and» electricity.

• The base for this index is the year 2000

• Data on products is collected by industry (at 4 digit ISIC level)

Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP

Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP

• The IIP is computed using a base weighted Laspeyres Index.

• The weights for the IIP were derived using turnover(value of sales) ration attributable to each industry.

•Currently the manufacturing industry has the biggest weight in the IIP (51.1%) followed by Mining & quarrying (35%) and electricity (13.9%)

• Out of a population of about 1041 units(Establishments) stratified by ISIC revision 2, a sample of about 168 units was selected

•This sample contributed about 80 % of the total turnover in the manufacturing industry

•Big establishment (ie with turnover above 2 Billion ZMK) were covered on a 100% basis

•The sample selected mainly covered 4 of the 9 provinces in Zambia.

Instrument

Primary Sources (only market producers are covered)Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces using a simple questionnaire.

This is a one paged form which is designed to collect data on:

•Number of operatives•Compensation of operatives•Quantities of manufactured products•Value of manufactured products•Value of sales•Units of products•Expected production in the next quarter•Maximum capacity of production per quarter

Data Sources for IIPData Sources for IIP

Periodicity of the IIPPeriodicity of the IIP

Computed Quarterly

It is compiled within 90 days of the end of the quarter

Disseminated at 2 digit ISIC revision 2 Level, mainly through the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics

Main users of IIP ZambiaMain users of IIP Zambia

National Account• The IIP for the manufacturing sector feeds directly into the

compilation of the GDP• Currently manufacturing contributes about 10% of the total

GDP at market prices.

MOFNp• Used by the Ministry of Finance and National Planning to

monitor changes, on a short term basis, in the manufacturing sector

• Remote benchmark year for the IIP (2000)

• Establishments often change their line of production

• Only the market producers are covered

Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing statistics (IIP)

Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing statistics (IIP)

Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics

Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics

Secondary Sources• Living condition Monitoring Survey(LCMS) for

household based manufacturing(LCMS is conducted every 2 years)

• Turnover from the VAT register

• Register of establishment (Labour statistics Branch)

• The CSO has resolved to start conducting an Economic Census every 5 years

This will ensure that the IIP is rebased every 5yearsDetailed surveys like the Census of Industrial

production will be conducted within the framework of the economic census.

Will be classified using the ISIC revision 4 classificationThe EC will form a basis to start computing other

variables like the producer price index (PPI)

Way ForwardWay Forward

• Beginning last year CSO has started conducting an annual Economic Survey (AES)

This survey has been designed for calculating annual GDP for all the sector including manufacturing sector.

Feeds directly into the compilation of GDP

The inaugural AES is being analyzed and will be disseminated later this year

Way Forward Continued Way Forward Continued

• The End