yugoslavia unravels

8/14/2019 Yugoslavia Unravels

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Yugoslavia's Makeup Could Lead to ItsUnraveling; Economic and Ethnic Tensions

Confront a Paralyzed Government Article from: The Washington Post Article date: December 17, 1989 Author:Dan Morgan

"It is as if the blood spilled during the centuries is leaching back upthrough the soil and into men's minds."

The speaker was a lifelong Yugoslav Communist, a former anti-Nazipartisan, who was expressing dismay at the resurgent regional

tensions that have confronted Yugoslavia with its most severe crisissince 1948 and raised questions about its possible disintegration.

This fiercely independent country broke away from Sovietdomination more than four decades ago and pioneered the searchfor economic change among Communist countries in EasternEurope. But its fragmented, multinational character is nowthreatening to tear Yugoslavia apart, in ways similar to the ethnicchallenges facing the Soviet Union.

Leaders of Serbia, Yugoslavia's largest republic, have called onlocal companies to boycott all business with Slovenia, the country'srichest republic, after the Slovenian government banned a hugestreet demonstration by Serbs planned there Dec. 1. Goods made inSlovenian factories are still on sale in Belgrade, located in Serbia,but may not be much longer. One diplomat called the economicwarfare "suicide."

Inflation is out of control, running at an estimated 10,000 percent ayear. The country's debt is staggering, and its economy stagnating.

Next week, Yugoslav Prime Minister Ante Marcovic, a respectedeconomic reformer, will present the legislature with a plan for


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dealing with inflation, and plead for powers to implement urgentlyneeded changes in tax, pricing and currency laws.

But it is not at all certain that Marcovic will get what he wants.

Yugoslavia's decentralized, federal system, set up in 1974 under president Tito, paralyzes strong executive action by granting asubstantial measure of self-government to the country's sixconstituent republics-Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia-Hercegovina,Macedonia and Montenegro-as well as two autonomous provincessituated within Serbia-Vojvodina and Kosovo. Thus, real power isheld by Communist Party barons in the republics.

But even if Marcovic can cut the deals he needs to make someeconomic changes, the political tensions in Yugoslavia are certain toremain unresolved and volatile, diplomatic observers said.

This week, in a historic move underscoring the centrifugal politicalforces pulling at this country, Croatian Communists agreed at aparty congress in their capital, Zagreb, to accept multi-partydemocracy and free elections, following the lead of Slovenia.

Croatia thus aligned itself with the democratic movements in theother parts of the former Austro-Hungarian empire. Next year Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, Slovenians and Croats-all former

Austro-Hungarian subjects who have been living under communismfor the past four decades-will hold democratic elections.

At the same time, Croatia put itself badly out of step with Serbia, thedominant player in the Yugoslav federation.

Serbia, under its president, Communist strongman SlobodanMilosevic, has refused to endorse power-sharing or free, democraticelections. A Serbian party congress in Belgrade this week gave fewsigns that Milosevic and his allies have taken note of the vastchanges sweeping through the Communist bloc.


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In what appeared to be a grudging nod to these forces, a Serbianparty spokesman said only that Serbia was willing to consider pluralism "within the party" and promised that the authorities wouldnot use "administrative measures"-the Communist code word for police intimidation-against opponents and critics.

The stage is now set for an ideological "battle royal," as oneYugoslav called it, when the national party, the League of Communists, holds its 14th congress next month.

The starting point for debate will be a draft resolution printed thisweek in the Belgrade daily Borba. If adopted, it would call on the

party to abandon its monopoly on power, stop meddling in factory-level decision-making and allow broad freedom to non-Communistpolitical groups. But as with everything else in Yugoslavia, theLeague of Communists is a federal institution with limited power over regional bosses.

Even ideology has begun to break along regional lines. Serbia,Montenegro and the two autonomous Serb-dominated provinces

over which Milosevic has asserted effective political control, Kosovoand Vojvodina, are likely to resist the drive by Slovenia and Croatiafor more democracy. The republics of Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina tend to side with Croatia and Slovenia on economicand legal matters, but it is unclear what they will do on the questionof political democracy.

Diplomatic observers tend to focus on Milosevic as they attempt tounravel the bewildering array of factors that have led to tension anddeadlock in Yugoslavia. A Serbian journalist described Milosevic asa "hormonal Communist" who would have trouble changing hisdoctrinaire Marxist views.

An ambitious man from the small Serbian town of Pozarevac,


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Milosevic rose to power with a combination of political cunning andskillful use of the "Kosovo issue." Milosevic rallied Serbs behind thecause of rescuing Serbs in Kosovo from mistreatment at the handsof the large ethnic Albanian minority in the province.

Initially, Milosevic was welcomed as a needed, strong hand. But asthe Serbian leader whipped up nationalistic sentiments, stagedstreet demonstrations to intimidate his opponents, muzzled theSerbian press and postponed economic reforms he said he favored,disillusionment set in.

The Kosovo issue has not been resolved, and this time ethnic

Albanians are the ones complaining of persecution. Since March, 29of them and two police officers reportedly have been killed indemonstrations in Kosovo. Azem Vlasi, the ethnic AlbanianCommunist leader, has been jailed.

Observers say Milosevic is using Kosovo for a larger, unknownpolitical purpose. The latest development came Nov. 29, whenSlovenian authorities banned a Dec. 1 march of thousands of Serbs

and Montenegrins with the stated goal of sensitizing Slovenians tothe Kosovo crisis.

The organizing committee called off the rally, saying, "We do notwant to be greeted with guns and truncheons."

But Serbia's party responded that the Slovenian action was "anunheard-of act of aggression against basic human rights andfreedoms," and called for the economic boycott of Slovenian goods.

No one here doubts the volatile potential of Milosevic's politics.Serbs make up by far the largest ethnic or national group-about 40percent of the total population-in this national melting pot of Slavs,Moslems (converts to Islam who have status as a separate "nation"in Yugoslavia) and Albanians. The Serbs are scattered throughout


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several republics.

By all accounts, Milosevic's popularity among Serbs remains high,but observers have detected signs of disaffection. Workers are said

to be unhappy with inflation and economic stagnation. "The cow isgetting thinner," said one Serb. Several alternative groups,composed of academics and intellectuals, have formed in Belgraderecently but do not yet appear to represent a serious threat toMilosevic.

A more serious problem for him is his increasing isolation. A U.S.State Department comment Dec. 11, mentioning Prime Minister

Marcovic by name and supporting his efforts to create a marketeconomy and political pluralism, was praised by Serbianintellectuals.

As long as Tito was alive, nationalistic behavior was kept in check. In1972, Tito unceremoniously snuffed out a mass movement that hadraised local Communist nationalists to the fore in Croatia. But thecollective presidency that Tito set up to replace him in 1974 has had

neither the legal power nor the moral force to act so decisively.

There is widespread agreement that the country desperately needsa constitutional change that would give the Yugoslav president andprime minister more executive authority to deal with the economy,and bar a local leader such as Milosevic from taking unilateral actionto disrupt internal commerce and business.

But a period of heightened regional and nationalistic tensions isseen as an inauspicious time to launch such changes. Slovenia isopposed to any strengthening of central authority that wouldimpinge on its sovereignty. Observers say it is unlikely that other republics would be willing to submit to a stronger central governmentuntil Serbia accepts a more progressive, democratic system.


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Thus, some diplomats and Yugoslavs have begun to consider thepossibility that the country might disintegrate-or at least revert to alooser confederation.

Ordinary Yusgoslavs often seem surprised at such ideas. Asked if the country could fall apart, a Serbian journalist who had beenexpounding on the seriousness of the crisis replied with someastonishment. "Yugoslavia has no end," she said.

The Yugoslav army, the one truly nationwide institution, almostcertainly would intervene to stop a civil war. But its role in a slow,painful collapse of unified government is uncertain. Like other

Yugoslav institutions, it is made up of a mixture of Yugoslav peoples.

yugoslavia unravels

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