youth and political transition in afghanistan 03

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Youth and the Transformation Process in Afghanistan

Dr. Mohammad Qasim Wafayezada

Abstract

After thirteen years of joint efforts for statebuilding, peacebuilding and democratic consolidation,

Afghanistan faces a more subtle series of political changes and social challenges in the wake of

the transformation decade (2015-2024) with the withdrawal of the international security forces

and a gradual decline in donors financial assistance and changing policy preferences.

Over a decade of political and economic institutionalization has had an immense impact on

Afghanistans social landscape which puts the country on the verge of a rapid social

transformation as the countrys population expands and grows more youthful. With 18.9 percent

of all Afghans between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four, and 48.4 percent of the total

population under the age of fifteen, demographics are changing fast. This youth bulge and the

baby boom present Afghanistan with a threefold challenge: first, growing political

participation and the lukewarm progress in institutionalization that limits their choices to exit or

violence and make the youth more likely to turn into a generation of protest motivated by

increasing unemployment; second and consequently, empowering 11.8 million juveniles and

youth to take a constructive role in economic reconstruction and development throughout the

transformation decade; third, coping with emerging problems such as inter-generational gap,

digital divide, cultural re-integration of the repatriates, and an increasing brain drain phenomena,

etc.

This article sets out to explore some of the potential political consequences of the youth bulge in

Afghanistan, with a critical approach to the National Youth Policy of Afghanistan (2014), and

concludes with specific policy recommendations for the Afghan government, the civil society,

and the international community for a focused and well-coordinated program of action.

About the author

Dr. M. Qasim Wafayezada is serving as Deputy Director General of Afghanistans Civil Aviation Authority and has

been an expert of social and cultural affairs within the Secretariat of the Ministers Council of Afghanistan. He has

earned his doctorate in international relations from Kanazawa University, Japan. His research focus has been on

ethnic politics, democratization and peace-building in post-conflict multiethnic societies. He is the author of Ethnic

Politics and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan: The Root Causes of Political Conflicts and the Problems of Democratic

Transition.

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Fukuyama, Fukuyama, Francis, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman to the French

Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Girous, 2011, p 3 2 Roy, Olivier, The New Political Elite of Afghanistan, in Weiner, Myron and Ali Banuazizi, eds., The

Politics of Social Transformation in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, New York: Syracuse University

Press, 1994, p 72

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3 See: Willem van de Put, Addressing mental health in Afghanistan, The Lancet Supplement, Vol 360,

December 2002, pp 41-2 4 Khalid A. Mufti, et al, Post-traumatic stress disorder among Afghan refugees following war, International Psychiatry, Volume 4, Number 1, January 2007, pp 7-8; Claudia Catani, et al, War Trauma,

Child Labor, and Family Violence: Life Adversities and PTSD in a Sample of School Children in Kabul,

Journal of Traumatic Stress, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009, pp 163-171

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5 See: Huntington, S., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996. 6 The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12, Central Statistics Organization, Kabul:

Jehoon Printing Press, 2014, p 10

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7 Yukitoshi Matsumoto, Young Afghans in transition: towards Afghanistan, exit or violence?, Conflict,

Security & Development , Vol. 11, No. 5 November 2011, p 557-8 8 See: Sinno, Abdulkader, Explaining the Talibans Ability to Mobilize the Pashtuns, in Robert D.

Crews and Amin Tarzi, eds., The Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan, London: Harvard University

Press, 2008, pp 59-89

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9 Ministry of Higher Education, Statistics at: http://www.mohe.gov.af/?p=ehsaya (Accessed on January 4,

2015) 0085 : 01

http://moe.gov.af/Content/files/1392%20annual%20Operation%20plan%20progress%20report%20final%20version.

pdf ( 0081 (5102 2 http://cso.gov.af/Content/files/Education%20syb.pdf

11 See: Ibrahimi, Niamatullah, Bureaucratic Policies and Patronage Politics: Prospects And Challenges of Private Higher Education in Afghanistan, AAN Briefing paper, January 2014; Giustozzi, Antonio,

Between Patronage and Rebellion: Student Politics in Afghanistan, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation

Unit, Brefing Paper Series, February 2010 12

For more information see: Yahya Baiza, The Politics of Higher Education in Contemporary

Afghanistan: The Post-Taliban Experience, in Education in the Muslim World: Different Perspectives,

Griffin, Rosarii, ed., Oxford: Symposium Books, 2006, pp 305-22

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Kaplan, Robert D., The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease

are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet, The Atlantic, February 1994, at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/ (Accessed on

January 4, 2015) 16 Urdal, Henrik, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Expert Paper No. 2012/1, p 1; Urdal, Henrik, The Devil in the

Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000, Conflict

Prevention & Reconstruction, Paper No. 14 / July 2004

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17 Matsumoto, op. cite, p 556, Ferguson, J., Decomposing Modernity: History and Hierarchy after Development, in Postcolonial Studies and Beyond, eds., A. Loomba, S. Kabul, M. Bunzi, A.M. Burton

and J. Esty, Duke University Press, Durham, NC, 2005, pp 168181. 18 Population Reference Bureau, The World's Youth 2013 Data Sheet, at: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/youth-datasheet-2013.aspx/ (Accessed on January 4,

2015) 19 Government of Afghanistan, Millennium Development Goals, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Country Report 2005; Government of Afghanistan,. Afghanistan National Development Strategy (1387

1391/20082013), Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2008. Government of Afghanistan, the

Afghanistan National Development Strategy Prioritization and Implementation Plan (Mid-2010Mid-

2013), Volume 1-4, Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2010.

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20 World Programme of Action for Youth to the Year 2000 and Beyond, New York: United Nations Press, 2010; Document A/RES/64/130 Policies and Programmes Involving Youth, UN General Assembly,

February 3, 2010 21

See: Youth and Migration, United Nations, 2013

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National Youth Policy 2014, Government of India, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, p 5

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National Youth Policy of Sri Lanka, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Skills Development, February 2014;

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Japan National Youth Development Policy, Headquarters for Youth Development, December 2008.

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Honwana, Alcinda, Waithood: Youth transitions and social change, at:

http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Documents/Academic_publications/2_honwana.pdf

(Accessed on January 7, 2015) 29

Population Reference Bureau, Worlds Youth Data Sheet, 2013, p 8

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31 UNODC, Impacts of Drug Use on Users and Their Families in Afghanistan, 2014, p 7; Azam Ahmed, That Other Big Afghan Crisis, the Growing Army of Addicts, New York Times, November 2, 2013, at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/asia/that-other-big-afghan-crisis-the-growing-army-of-

addicts.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 (Accessed on January 7, 2015) 32

Afghanistan Drug Report 2012, Ministry of Counter Narcotics, November 2013, p 21

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UNESCO, Basic Texts, 2014 edition, Paris: UNESCO Publications, 2014, p 5 39

Afghanistan's HIV Rate Up 38 Percent in 2013, Tolo News, at:

http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/12928-afghanistans-hiv-rate-up-38-percent-in-2013 ( Accessed

on January)
http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/12928-afghanistans-hiv-rate-up-38-percent-in-2013

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See: World Programm of Action for Youth, pp 29-31 41

Youth and Migration, World Youth Report, United Nations, 2013

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The Fund for Peace 051 01112 911

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43 The Fund for Peace, The Fragile States Index, 2014, p 23

44 See: The Least Developed Countries Report 2012: Harnessing Remittances and Diaspora Knowledge to Build Productive Capacities, UNCTAD, New York and Geneva, 2012; The Afghan brain drain, at:

http://www.dw.de/the-afghan-brain-drain/a-16898324 (Accessed on January 7, 2015)

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Huntington, Samuel P., So, are civilizations at war? Interview by The Observer, Sunday, October 21

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Afghanistan Drug Report 2012, Ministry of Counter Narcotics, November 2013

Afghanistan's HIV Rate Up 38 Percent in 2013, Tolo News, at:


(Accessed on January)

Azam Ahmed, That Other Big Afghan Crisis, the Growing Army of Addicts, New York Times, November 2, 2013, at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/asia/that-other-big-afghan-crisis-

the-growing-army-of-addicts.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 (Accessed on January 7, 2015)

Claudia Catani, et al, War Trauma, Child Labor, and Family Violence: Life Adversities and PTSD in a

Sample of School Children in Kabul, Journal of Traumatic Stress, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009, pp 163-171

Document A/RES/64/130 Policies and Programmes Involving Youth, UN General Assembly, February 3,

2010

Guide to the Implementation of the World Programmm of Action for Youth, United Nations, 2006

Ferguson, J., Decomposing Modernity: History and Hierarchy after Development, in Postcolonial

Studies and Beyond, eds., A. Loomba, S. Kabul, M. Bunzi, A.M. Burton and J. Esty, Duke

University Press, Durham, NC, 2005, pp 168181.

Fukuyama, Fukuyama, Francis, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman to the French

Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Girous, 2011

Giustozzi, Antonio, Between Patronage and Rebellion: Student Politics in Afghanistan, Afghanistan

Research and Evaluation Unit, Brefing Paper Series, February 2010

Government of Afghanistan, Millennium Development Goals, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Country

Report 2005

Government of Afghanistan,. Afghanistan National Development Strategy (13871391/20082013),

Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2008.

| 30

Government of Afghanistan, the Afghanistan National Development Strategy Prioritization and

Implementation Plan (Mid-2010Mid-2013), Volume 1-4, Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2010.

Honwana, Alcinda, Waithood: Youth transitions and social change, at:

http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Documents/Academic_publications/2_honwana.pdf

(Accessed on January 7, 2015)

Huntington, S., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, New York: Simon &

Schuster, 1996.

Huntington, Samuel P., So, are civilizations at war? Interview by The Observer, Sunday, October 21

Ibrahimi, Niamatullah, Bureaucratic Policies and Patronage Politics: Prospects And Challenges of Private

Higher Education in Afghanistan, AAN Briefing paper, January 2014

Japan National Youth Development Policy, Headquarters for Youth Development, December 2008

Kaplan, Robert D., The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are

rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet, The Atlantic, February 1994, at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/ (Accessed on

January 4, 2015)

Khalid A. Mufti, et al, Post-traumatic stress disorder among Afghan refugees following war,

International Psychiatry, Volume 4, Number 1, January 2007, pp 7-8

Ministry of Higher Education, Statistics at: http://www.mohe.gov.af/?p=ehsaya (Accessed on January 4,

2015)

National Youth Policy, Government of India, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, 2014

National Youth Policy of Sri Lanka, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Skills Development, February 2014

Population Reference Bureau, The World's Youth 2013 Data Sheet, at:

http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/youth-datasheet-2013.aspx/ (Accessed on January

4, 2015) Roy, Olivier, The New Political Elite of Afghanistan, in Weiner, Myron and Ali Banuazizi, eds., The

Politics of Social Transformation in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, New York: Syracuse University

Press, 1994

Sinno, Abdulkader, Explaining the Talibans Ability to Mobilize the Pashtuns, in Robert D. Crews and Amin Tarzi, eds., The Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan, London: Harvard University Press,

2008

The Fund for Peace, The Fragile States Index 2014, FFP : CFSIR1423 (Version 06D)

The Afghan brain drain, at: http://www.dw.de/the-afghan-brain-drain/a-16898324 (Accessed on January 7,

2015)

The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12, Central Statistics Organization, Kabul: Jehoon

Printing Press, 2014

The Least Developed Countries Report 2012: Harnessing Remittances and Diaspora Knowledge to Build

Productive Capacities, UNCTAD, New York and Geneva, 2012

UNESCO Operational Strategy on Youth 2014-2021

UNESCO, Basic Texts, 2014 edition, Paris: UNESCO Publications, 2014

UNODC, Impacts of Drug Use on Users and Their Families in Afghanistan, 2014

| 31

Urdal, Henrik, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, UN Department of

Economic and Social Affairs, Expert Paper No. 2012/1

Urdal, Henrik, The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict,

1950-2000, Conflict Prevention & Reconstruction, Paper No. 14 / July 2004

Willem van de Put, Addressing mental health in Afghanistan, The Lancet Supplement, Vol 360,

December 2002, pp 41-2

World Programme of Action for Youth to the Year 2000 and Beyond, New York: United Nations Press,

2010

Yahya Baiza, The Politics of Higher Education in Contemporary Afghanistan: The Post-Taliban

Experience, in Education in the Muslim World: Different Perspectives, Griffin, Rosarii, ed., Oxford:

Symposium Books, 2006, pp 305-22

Youth and Migration, World Youth Report, United Nations, 2013

Yukitoshi Matsumoto, Young Afghans in transition: towards Afghanistan, exit or violence?, Conflict,

Security & Development , Vol. 11, No. 5 November 2011