young drivers - hochschulbibliothekszentrum (hbz) · 2018. 11. 15. · presentation rob ruyter...
TRANSCRIPT
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Young Drivers
Divera Twisk
SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research,
The Netherlands
The Road to Safety
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Content of the study
– Accident analyses
– Factors explaining the high risk– Factors explaining the high risk
– Effective countermeasures
– New measures (ITS)
– Implementation strategies
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Magnitude and forecast
• Young drivers: 27% of all driver fatalities but are
only 10% of the population in OECD countries
• For each killed young driver about 1.3 “others” die!
• Young driver fatalities in EU will increase as a result
of economic growth and motorization, in particular
in former communist countries
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NetherlandsIreland
UKPoland
Czech Rep.
average value from 2000 &
Countries and development
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
New ZealandAustria
USASpain
CanadaSwitzerland
FinlandItaly
DenmarkHungarySwedenNorway
Netherlands average value from 2000 &
2003*
average value from 1985 &
1990**
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FPL
CZ
IS
DKFINCAN
NZ
AUTP
SLO
H
USA
AUS
E
33.83
Average
value
high old/
high young
high old/
low young
JNL
N
KORDK
GER
FINS
CHUK
AUS
0
33.83
0 81.39
Average value
[Ages 18-24]
value
[Ages
35-59]
low old/
high young
low old/
low young
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Why are these countries so different?
1. Different levels of motorization and rapid increase in
motorization leads to deterioration (e.g. former eastern
Germany)
2. General safety levels: countries safe for experienced
drivers are also safe for novice drivers
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Priority 0: Benefits from general road safety
Strict drink and drug driving laws and
enforcement:
• random breath testing• random breath testing
Seat belt use:
• reminders
Speed management:
• Camera’s
Vehicle design:
• Old cars less protection
Safe infrastructure
• Simple, forgiving, inherently safe
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Contributing factors
• Biological immaturity
• Lack of experience
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
Can’t you watchout?!
• Poor self assessment
• High exposure to dangerous conditions
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Contributing factors
• Biological immaturity
• Lack of experience
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
Can’t you watchout?!
• Poor self assessment
• High exposure to dangerous conditions
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50
75
100
125
150
50
75
100
125
150
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
High exposure to dangerous conditions
0
25
50
0
Monday
6 12 18 0
Tuesday
6 12 18 0
Wednesday
6 12 18 0
Thursday
6 12 18 0
Friday
6 12 18 0
Saturday
6 12 18 0
Sunday
6 12 18
0
25
50
0
Monday
6 12 18 0
Tuesday
6 12 18 0
Wednesday
6 12 18 0
Thursday
6 12 18 0
Friday
6 12 18 0
Saturday
6 12 18 0
Sunday
6 12 18
Killed in Road Crashes, by Hour 1
8-25 Year-Olds and Day
European Union 15 (minus Germany), 2004
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Contributing factors
• Biological immaturity
• Lack of experience
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
Can’t you watchout?!
• Poor self assessment
• High exposure to dangerous conditions
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Contributing factors
• Biological immaturity
• Lack of experience
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
Can’t you watchout?!
• Poor self assessment
• High exposure to dangerous conditions
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20
25
30
35
age
Accident risk per km and experience/age
0
5
10
15
20
18 23 28 33 38 43
license 18 license 21 license 23-27 license 30-40 autonomous age effect
Experience + age
Bron :
Vlakveld
2005
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Contributing factors
• Biological immaturity
• Lack of experience
Source : OECD
(2006) young
drivers: the road to
safety
Can’t you watchout?!
• Poor self assessment
• High exposure to dangerous conditions
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Risk taking?
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True or False?
Adolescents feel invulnerable
(true = hands up)
Not
true
Adolescents under estimate risks(true = hands up)
Not
true
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Young adolescents do not learn from negative consequences ?
true(true: hands up)
true
False
Do we know enough about adolescents?
(true: hands up)
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3
011
1518
2330
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
0
Age
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
Presentation Rob Ruyter University
Maastricht
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3
011
1518
2330
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
0
Age
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
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3
011
1518
2330
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
0
Age
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
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3
011
1518
2330
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
0
Age
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
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3
011
1518
2330
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
0
Age
cognitive control system
social-emotional system
logical reasoning
risk behaviour
Presentation Rob Ruyter University
Maastricht
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All youngsters equally dangerous?
7
8
•The development of accidents
involvement per kilometre
• inexperienced drivers (18-24)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Netherlands Sweden United
Kingdom
Netherlands Sweden United
Kingdom
vrouw vrouw vrouw man man man
1994
2001
• inexperienced drivers (18-24)
versus experienced drivers (35-50)
•in Sweden, GB and NL
Bron: Lynam, Nilsson, Morsink, Sexton, Twisk, Goldenbeld, & Wegman (2005) SUNflower +6 : An
extended study of the development of road safety in Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the
Netherlands.
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All conditions equally risky?
100
125
150
100
125
150
0
25
50
75
0
Monday
6 12 18 0
Tuesday
6 12 18 0
Wednesday
6 12 18 0
Thursday
6 12 18 0
Friday
6 12 18 0
Saturday
6 12 18 0
Sunday
6 12 18
Source: EU
0
25
50
75
0
Monday
6 12 18 0
Tuesday
6 12 18 0
Wednesday
6 12 18 0
Thursday
6 12 18 0
Friday
6 12 18 0
Saturday
6 12 18 0
Sunday
6 12 18
18-25 Year-Olds Killed in Road Crashes, by Hour and DayEuropean Union 15 (minus Germany), 2004
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Priority 1: more drivingexperience before solo driving
Pre-license training with Pre-license training with
higher levels of practice
under supervised driving
conditions
Practicemakesperfect
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Priority 2: Protection in solo driving
• Restrictions on peer age passengers;
• Restrict night-time driving (more difficult
• Zero alcohol for young drivers (widely accepted)
• Restrict night-time driving (more difficultto implement)
Restrictions can be lifted progressively as
drivers gain experience
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Priority 3: training and licensing
• Focus on self-evaluation and risk increasing factors
• Research benefits of driver training
• Improve driving test
• Key elements in test are key elements in training
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Priority 4: new technology
• Explore, develop and test technology
• Monitoring of solo driving restrictions (smart key)
• Rewards and enforcement green box
• Giving useful driver support (not yet available)
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Dissimination
• Iceland
• Cyprus
• Netherlands
• “ Fit to drive” conference Vienna
• “ Brake” conference London UK
• “ Traffic behaviour seminar” London UK
• Young driver safety in Europe, Arizona
• Workshop on Young driver safety TRB, USA
• High level group EU, Paris.
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Conclusions
• General safety measures first
• Accompanied driving as instrument to boost experience
• Restrictive measures: only zero alcohol in the short term
• Demerit systems too low in effects
• 18 will always be 18 (?)
• More (other?) measures needed to target young males