yield tests sales forecasting order size adjustments to order sizes
TRANSCRIPT
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• Yield Tests• Sales Forecasting• Order Size• Adjustments to Order Sizes
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• Discuss the consequences of over-and underordering.
• Calculate acceptable order sizes, EP weight, and edible product yield.
• Examine and diagnose causes of product loss.• Prepare sales forecasts needed to enhance
the accuracy of purchasing decisions.
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Buyers must balance carrying or storage costs (inventory on the shelves) and stockout costs
(irritated, disappointed customers).• Options:– Software applications– Conduct yield tests– Forecast sales– Determine order size
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• Step One: Buy enough of the product to conduct two or more tests (or get free samples)
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• Step Two: Calculate the item’s as-purchased (AP) weight– Meats, fish and poultry may weigh less then when
purchased due to moisture loss• shrink allowance may be addressed on the
specification sheet)
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• Third Step: use the exact service production procedures used in the restaurant– Calculate weight of waste– Subtract from AP weight– Result will be the edible-portion (EP) weight (also
called usable weight or servable weight)– Perform test more than once and average results
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• Five Causes of Product Waste– Mise en place – unavoidable cutting/trimming loss– Production loss – shrinkage due to cooking; also
trimming of fat after cooking, discarding of end cuts, etc.
– Pilferage – eating and drinking on the job(cont.)
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• Five Causes of Product Waste (cont.)– Unanticipated mistakes – Style of service – all-you-can-eat items, food bars,
free refills on drinks, etc., are hard to average• Analyze a product’s use over two weeks, divide
by number of customers for average portion size
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• Best Option: conduct yield tests in your own kitchen
• Second Best Option: Use the edible yield percentages in The Book of Yields or the Chef’s Book of Formulas, Yields and Sizes
• Third Best Option: take the word of your purveyor
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A salmon weights 16 lbs (AP) and yields 12 lbs (EP)
What is the yield percentage?
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Answer:EP ÷ AP × 100 = Yield Percentage
12 ÷ 16 = .75 × 100 = 75%
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• If the AP price for an item is $2.07 per pound and the EP cost is $3.51 per servable pound, what is the yield
percentage?
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First, calculate the EP weight:X ounces ÷ $2.07 (AP Price) = 16 ounces ÷ 3.51
OrX ounces = 16 ounces ÷ 3.51 × 2.07
OrX ounces = 9.4 EP ounces (the yield per AP
pound)
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Now calculate the percentage yield:9.4 ounces ÷ 16 ounces × 100 = 59%
Answer: Yield percentage is 59%
Alternative method for solving:$2.07 (AP price) ÷ $3.07 (EP cost) × 100 = 59%
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• For Regular Sales -- Historical Data– Taken from point-of-sale system (POS)– Menu Mix Percentage or Popularity Index
(calculated by dividing the number of times an item is served in a given time by the total meals served)
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Steak Ranch RestaurantOver the past 12 Wednesdays, 19 percent of the
guests ordered prime rib dinners.Next Wednesday, 268 guests are expected.
How many prime rib dinners should be prepared?
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Answer:286 × 19% = 55 prime rib dinners
• Plus a few more:– Mistakes– Mix of rare, medium and well-done and end-cut
servings– May have extras because of the number of
servings in a roast
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• For Catering Sales – determine what you need, inflate it a bit and prepare the purchase order– Challenge #1 – more guests than guaranteed– Challenge #2 – all-you-can-eat buffet
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There is a simple formula:EP amount needed ÷ edible yield percentage
= AP amount to order
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Broccoli Example4-ounce servings (EP)75% yield percentage
600 guests4 ounces × 600 = 2,400
2,400 ÷ .75 = 3,200 ounces (3,200 ÷ 16 = 200)Should order just over 200 pounds (AP) to serve a
4-ounce portion of broccoli florets to 600 guests
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• As mentioned before: you should always order a bit more than you need– Waste– Pilferage– Can’t always order exact amount you need
because of packaging, may end up ordering more anyway
– Stockout is not in our vocabulary
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Wine Example5 ounce serving (EP)
Waste is 10% of each 750 ml bottleEstimated 100 glasses will sell per day
How many bottles should you order in one week?
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Wine Example – Answer5 servable ounces ÷ .90 = 5.5 ounces (AP)
25.4 ounces (AP) ÷ 5.5 ounces (AP) = 4.6 drinks per bottle
700 (# of drinks sold per week) ÷ 4.6 = 152.2 bottles
You will need to order 13 cases or 156 bottles of wine for the week
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• When ordering, take into account your existing inventory. Subtract what you have on hand that is usable from the order size for a product