YES, IT IS !!! NO, IT ISN’T !!!

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INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL

SECURITY STUDY ON SECURITY STUDY ON

TAIWAN TAIWAN CaptCapt

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FIRST – What do these countries have in common?

Taiwan Chinese Taipei Republic of China (ROC)

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Causes of War and tension between ROC and Peoples Republic of China (PRC) (Mainland China) Timeline Contextual elements

US Involvement National Security Strategy (NSS) & Taiwan Relations Act Instruments of Power (IOP)

Forecast and Recommendations IOP International Community

OVERVIEW

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Timeline [1927 – 1949], Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”) 1927 Political CoW…Chinese Civil War between Chiang

Kai-shek’s Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang (KMT)) & Mao Tse-tung’s Communist Party of China (CPC)

1928 KMT controls China’s capitol & major cities – recognized as China’s official government by international community

1930 Political CE…US (aligned with KMT) & USSR (aligned with CPS) come to China’s aid

1937 – 1949 World War II & 2d Sino-Japanese War

Causes of War & Contextual Elements

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Timeline [1949] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”)

CoW & CE Con’t

1949 Political CoW & CE…CPC aided by USSR & weapons from Japanese take Beijing

KMT forced to island of Taiwan Mao Tse-tung’s CPC renames China PRCPRC (CPC) vs. ROC (KMT)

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Timeline [1971] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”)

1971 Political & Int. CE…ROC loses seat on UN to PRC Communism vs. Capitalism Israel vs. Muslim States USSR/China relations (+/-)

CoW & CE Con’t

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Timeline [2000] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”)

CoW & CE Con’t

2000 Political & Security CoW…ROC’s Chen Shui-bian’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Presidential election

Publishes “White Paper on China Policy for 21st Century” … outlines four pillars for Taiwan security (“White Paper on China Policy for 21st Century”, www.taiwandocuments.org, 30 Nov 1999)

PRC enacts “Anti-Accession Law” in response …2008 deadline

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IAW 2002 National Security Strategy and Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 US Objectives are: Promote Democracy and free trade Provide security to Taiwan

US Involvement

US using military IOP – Trumen Eisenhower Reagan Bush Clinton

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US Involvement Con’t

US using diplomatic IOP – Arms Sales Status (i.e. “Almost Sovereign”, Formal)

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US Involvement Con’t

US using economic IOP – Direct until 1971 Indirect (i.e. WTO member, Favored Nation status)

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Forecast & Recommendations Republic of China will win its sovereignty US Stay the Course (Diplomatic, Military and Economic

IOP) Diplomatic IOP

Continue diplomatic

pressure on China Continue Arms Sales (“Bush Defends Taiwan Arms

Sales”, BBC News online,

25 Apr 2001)

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Forecast & Recommendations Con’t

Economic trade continues global interdependence Military intervention International Community Continue Pressure

Through International

Events like Olympics United Nations (www.

Taiwandocuments.org)

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ROC’s many Names (Taiwan, Chinese Teipei, Republic of China)

CoW & CE (Civil War, Cold War CE, long history) US Involvement (IOPs, Military, Political,

Economic) Forecast Recommendations (True Sovereign, Stay

the course, time) Questions??

SUMMARY