AQAP and Al-Shabaab Alliance; An Emerging Terrorist Threat

Report by the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI)

Compiled by:

Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) EmergencyNet News Chicago, IL

Preliminary Report; Unofficial Pictures of Alleged Devices and ERRI commentary Saturday, October 30, 2010

Open Source Report This report may contain law enforcement, military, or FOUO sensitive data…

Unofficial Pictures of Device (1)

Picture of potential device in the bomb

plot originating from Yemen. This

picture is thought originally to come

from England, though that is not

confirmed by ERRI sources…this image

was published CBS news.

Picture of another recovered device, believed to have been involved in the plot discovered on 10/29/2010. This photo reportedly came from police evidence in Dubai, UAE

Unofficial Pictures of Device (2)

Pentaerythritol tetranitrate, or PETN, is a major ingredient of Semtex and belongs to the same chemical family as nitroglycerin. It is one of the most powerful explosives made today and is a favorite among terrorists because its colorless crystals are hard to detect in a sealed container.

ERRI analysts said that the exact chemical composition of the type of explosive used in the recovered devices, in this latest plot, has NOT been officially determined. Forensic tests will undoubtedly identify this substance and other facts in the near term.

PETN was the explosive of choice in an attempted Christmas bombing, last year (the so-called “underwear bomber.”- 23-year-old Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab -- see picture, next slide)

PETN is relatively stable and can be detonated either by heat or a shockwave. A little more than 100 grams of PETN could destroy a car, some experts report.

Reported bomb substance - PETN

The alleged bomber of the Christmas-time attack, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, was arrested and remains in custody at the time of this report.

As the investigation continues, evidence and determinations would seem to point to connections between the bomber and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Specifically, EOD experts suggest that the bomb was probably built by Ibrahim Hassan Al Asiri (Below-right), a known AQAP bomb-maker.

Furthermore, increasing evidence would suggest a link between Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab and radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, now a leader/spokesman for AQAP.

Alleged Bomber, Maker & Mastermind

Map of Affected Regional

By reviewing a map of the region, one can quickly see the potential strategic importance of an alliance between Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Shahbaab in Somalia. We have already seen some of the effects of “limited” piracy undertaken by Somali pirates in the (chokepoint) Gulf of Aden. Now, imagine additional AQAP piracy… originating in Yemen. Or, probably more importantly, think about raiding and terror attacks…aimed at blocking the Suez canal during some other crisis in the Middle East.

An Emergent Threat to USA?

ERRI analysts say that they fear that Al Qaeda in Yemen (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula - AQAP) may soon be sending American jihadis recruited by Al-Awlaki to attack the U.S. Complicating this sort of plot may be the recruitment/involvement of militants associated with Al-Shahbaab in Somalia…who have already infiltrated several parts of the U.S. The potential combination of these two groups provides another fearsome terror threat to the U.S. and her allies, ERRI analysts said.

Al-Shahbaab “technicals” with individual weapons

AQAP fighters in Yemen

Questions, comments, suggestions or requests for more information can be directed to: Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) EmergencyNet News 6348 N. Milwaukee Ave. #312 Chicago, IL 60646 (773) 631-3774 – Voice, messages (773) 631-4703 – Facsimile erri.six@gmail.com – E-mail http://emergencynet-news.com - website

Editor’s note: This report contains open source intelligence information (OSINT) and should be considered a preliminary assessment. More confirmed data should be available as forensic tests and other collection efforts proceed. This report may contain law enforcement, military, or FOUO sensitive data…