Xuexi Tie xxtie@ucar.edu

Xu Tang,Fuhai Geng, and Chunsheng Zhao

Shanghai Meteorological BureauAtmospheric Chemistry Division/NCAR Peking University

Understand and Forecast the Impact of Economical Development on Air Quality in Shanghai(MIRAGE – Shanghai)

Motivations:Motivations:

Large Cities are rapidly growing (cluster)Large Cities are rapidly growing (cluster)Effect on air pollutants (regional Effect on air pollutants (regional global) global)Effect on climate (regional Effect on climate (regional global) global)

Shanghai is under rapid development Shanghai is under rapid development

Resi denti al And Non-Resi denti al Bui l di ng Stati st i c

91. 34172. 56

314. 67 342. 06383. 24

434. 32513. 75

593. 14641. 98

702. 82

324. 37

0100200300400500600700800

1980 1990 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ion

Total Number of Ci vi l Motor Vehi cl es(Mi l l i on)

0. 47 0. 54 0. 58

1. 041. 20

1. 39

1. 74

2. 032. 22

2. 38

0. 68

0. 00

0. 50

1. 00

1. 50

2. 00

2. 50

3. 00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Auto 500%Building 350%

The impacts on environmentThe impacts on environment High Pollutants around Large Cities High Pollutants around Large Cities

Shanghai

The worst is not over (yet) ! The worst is not over (yet) !

Richter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen over ChinaRichter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen over Chinaobserved from space, Nature, v437, p129-132, 2005observed from space, Nature, v437, p129-132, 2005

Zhao, Tie, Ling, GRL, 2006

What is the future of Ozone ??What is the future of Ozone ??Potential high ozone ?? Potential high ozone ??

Scientific Objectives Scientific Objectives •Understand the current ozone in YRD Understand the current ozone in YRD

•Forecast the future ozone in YRDForecast the future ozone in YRD

Understand the current ozone in YRD Understand the current ozone in YRD

Ozone FormationOzone Formation Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH)Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH) Effectors (aerosols, clouds, ..)Effectors (aerosols, clouds, ..) Products (CHProducts (CH22O, HNOO, HNO33, PAN) , PAN) Impacts on Economical Development on OzoneImpacts on Economical Development on Ozone Industrial EmissionsIndustrial Emissions Biogenic EmissionsBiogenic EmissionsImpacts of Aerosols on OzoneImpacts of Aerosols on Ozone

Impacts of Surrounding Areas on OzoneImpacts of Surrounding Areas on Ozone

Impacts of Meteorology on OzoneImpacts of Meteorology on Ozone

Field measurements Field measurements (multi-measurements)(multi-measurements)

(with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH)(with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH)

(1) Ozone and precursors O3, CO, NOx, Anthropogenic VOCs, Biogenic VOCs OH, HO2, RO2

(2) The products of oxidation Organic carbon products (such as CH2O), HNO3, PAN NOy(3) Radiative parameters Aerosols, UV flux, clouds, single albedo (4) Meteorological parameters

* By Shanghai; By ACD; By both

The Measurement sitsThe Measurement sitsThe Measurement sitsThe Measurement sits

The current measurement instruments - IThe current measurement instruments - I(Shanghai ) (Shanghai ) The current measurement instruments - IThe current measurement instruments - I(Shanghai ) (Shanghai )

(1) Ozone, CO, NOx instrumentsOzone, CO, NOx instruments

(2) Ozone sounding(2) Ozone sounding(2) VOC species(2) VOC species Canister, 105 SpeciesCanister, 105 Species(3) Radiative instruments(3) Radiative instruments UV UV

(4) Aerosol instruments(4) Aerosol instruments AOD – Sunphotometer AOD – Sunphotometer SC –Nephelometer SC –Nephelometer BC - Magee AE31BC - Magee AE31 PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10)PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10)

(5) lidar(5) lidar Aerosol profilesAerosol profiles

The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments

The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments

13/11/2005 20/11/2005 27/11/20050

10

20

30

40

50

Date

voc

(pp

bv)

alkylaromaticityetherhalohydrocarbonketonealkenehydroxyaldehydeallyhalidehalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons

The current measurement instruments - IIThe current measurement instruments - II(US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) The current measurement instruments - IIThe current measurement instruments - II(US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)

(1) Ozone (1) Ozone (2) Nitrogen species(2) Nitrogen species NOx, HONO, HNONOx, HONO, HNO33, PAN, TPAN, PAN, TPAN(3) VOC species(3) VOC species On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS)On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS)(4) Radicals (4) Radicals OH, HOOH, HO22, RO, RO22

(5) Oxidation products(5) Oxidation products CHCH22O, PAN, HNOO, PAN, HNO33 (6) Photolysis rates(6) Photolysis rates J[OJ[O33], J[NO], J[NO22], ….], ….(7) Aerosols (7) Aerosols Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….)Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….) Size distributions (from nm to µm) Size distributions (from nm to µm)

Why need more measurements - I Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - I Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)

Understand the NOx/VOCs emission ratioUnderstand the NOx/VOCs emission ratio OH + NOOH + NO22 HNO HNO33 (NOx oxidation) (NOx oxidation) OH + VOC OH + VOC CH CH22O (VOC oxidation)O (VOC oxidation) OH + VOC + NOx OH + VOC + NOx PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation) PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation)

The ratios of HNOThe ratios of HNO33/NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio of NOof NOXX/VOC emission/VOC emission

Why need more measurements - II Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - II Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)

The ratios of HNOThe ratios of HNO33/NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio

NOX/VOC emission NOX/VOC emission MC (NOx/VOC = 0.1)MC (NOx/VOC = 0.1) NY (NOx/VOC=0.4)NY (NOx/VOC=0.4)

Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important?Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important?

NO+ONO+O33NONO22 NONO22+hv+hv O O33

Chemical ModelsChemical Models

WRF-Chem ModelWRF-Chem ModelNCAR – MM modelNCAR – MM model

WRF-Chem modelWRF-Chem model

WRF-Chem is a newly developed model has several advance features,For example:

(1) Online coupled dynamical-chemical-aerosol model (In able to study the feedbacks between climate and chemistry)

(2) Nested model (In able to study in and out flow round the SH city)

(3) Interaction between aerosols and gas-phase chemistry (In able to study the effect of aerosols on ozone

To address scientific issuesTo address scientific issues

(1) Contributions from various anthropogenic emissions (power plants, auto, etc)

(2) Contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic emissions

(3) Impacts of aerosols on the formation of ozone

(4) Changes of traffic on ozone formation (diurnal, and spatial variation (e.g., Weekend effect )

Ozone ForecastingOzone Forecasting

(1) To predict the ozone concentrations (validated with measurements to improve model)

(2) To assess the methodology to reduce ozone concentrations (reduction of emissions; changes in traffic pattern) (3) To estimate the cost /benefit ratio

(4) To study the potential ozone concentration (preventing high ozone problem in Shanghai)

Key issues – Improve emissionsKey issues – Improve emissions

(1)(1) Based on the Street’s Inventory (1/6 degree)Based on the Street’s Inventory (1/6 degree)(2)(2) Update the surface cover of ShanghaiUpdate the surface cover of Shanghai(3)(3) Update the traffic distributionUpdate the traffic distribution(4)(4) Update the population distributionUpdate the population distribution(5)(5) Update the point source distributionUpdate the point source distribution(6)(6) Update emission index, especially for trafficUpdate emission index, especially for traffic

A Fully Interactive ModelA Fully Interactive Model (A future environment model) (A future environment model)

WRF-ChemWRF-ChemEmissionsEmissions

Chemicals(ozone)Chemicals(ozone)AerosolsAerosols

Traditional ModelTraditional Model

InteractiveInteractive EnvironmentalEnvironmentalModelModel

WRF-ChemWRF-Chem

Impact ModelImpact ModelHealthHealthClimateClimateagricultureagriculture

Future Environmental Forecast Model Future Environmental Forecast Model (FEFM) (FEFM)

Applications of the FEFMApplications of the FEFM

(1)(1) To forecast and prevent potential To forecast and prevent potential high ozone in Shanghaihigh ozone in Shanghai

(2) To help for city planning(2) To help for city planning

(3)To assess environmental changes on (3)To assess environmental changes on air quality and human’s health air quality and human’s health