XUAT KHAU GAO CUA VIET NAM -SAU ISNAMNHINLAI

TS. MAI THI THANH XUAN

Khoa Kink te, DHQG Hd Ngi

1. Thirc trang xuat khau gao

Gao la san phdm quan trong ddi vdi nude ta. No khdng chi c6 vai tro trong viec dap ling nhu cau hang ngay cua dan cu, ma con la mat hang xuat khdu chien lurcfc cua nen kinh te. Nhin lai 15 nam xuat khau gao cua Viet Nam, c6 the nit ra mot so nhan xet sau:

Thu" nhai, nhin chung san lirang va kim ngach xuat khau gao c6 xu hu^ng tang I en

Ke tur nam 1989, Ian dSu tien sau mot thdi gian dai thieu luong thirc, Viet Nam da xuat khau dirge hon 14 trieu tan gao, v6i miic kim ngach 290 trieu USD, diing thii 3 the gidi v6 lugng gao xuat khau (sau Thai Lan va My). Nhttng nam tiep theo, san pham gao xuat khau vSn giu: dirge miJc tang tuong ddi on dinh ea ve san lugng va gia tri kim ngach, tr6 thanh mot trong 10 mat hang xuat khau chu lue cua nen kinh te. Tinh den het nam 2004, tong san lugng gao xuat khau cua ca nudre dat 44,92 trieu tan, thu 10,11 ty USD, binh quin mdi nam tang 10,48% san lugng va 12,13% kim ngach. Trong do cac nam c6 tdc do tang cao nhat ve san lugng la: 1992 (88,4%), 1996 (51%), 1999 (20,8%), 2003 (20%); va cac nam c6 tang kim ngach cao nhat la: 1990 (29%), 1992 (78,6%), 61,3%. 2004 (28,2%). Dae biet, nam 1996 xuat kh^u gao da eo bude phat trien dot pha, dat han 3 trieu tan (tang 51,3% so v6i nam 1995 va 107% so v6i nam 1989), v6i 855 trieu USD (tang 61,3%) so vdi nam 1995 va 128,6% so v6i nam 1989). Tir do den nam, lugng gao xua't khdu luon duy tri a miJe tren 3 trieu ta'n, ky lue la vao nam 1999 dat 4,5 trieu tan va 1,025 ty USD.

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Sang nam 2005, do dieu kien thdi tiet khdng thuan, han han keo dai nen Chinh phii da c6 quyet dinh chi cho xuat khau 3,8 trieu tan gao nham dam bao muc tieu an toan luong thirc qude gia. Nhung tren thuc te, chi mdi 5 thang dau nam ca nude da xuat khau duge hon 2,25 trieu tan va thu 621 trieu USD. So vdi eung ky nam trude, san lugng tang 14% va kim ngach tang 30,6%. Theo ket qua khao sat tai 6 tinh Dong bang Song Cuu Long eiia Hiep hoi luong thuc, den het nam nay san lugng gao xuat khdu cua nude ta se vugt nguong 4 trieu tan eiia nam 2004. Neu vay thi day se la nam thii 14 Viet Nam diing vi tri thii" 2 the gidi ve xuat khau gao.

Thu"hai, chat luang va gia ca gao Viet Nam tren thi trw&ng the gidi tCmg bwdc dwac nang cao

Co the ndi, chat lugng gao Viet Nam trong nhung nam gan day da CO su cai thien dang ke. Neu nhu trong nhung nam dau xuat kh^u, ty le gao chat lugng thap (tren 25% tarn) va trung binh (15-20% tam) thudng chiem tren 80-90%, thi den nam 1998 chi eon 47% va cudi nam 2003 la 40%. Tuong ling, ty le gao chat lugng cao (5-10% tam) da tang tir 14,2% nam 1990 len 40% nam 2000 va 55% nam 2003.

Gia gao xuat khau cua Viet Nam cung dang tren da tang len, tung bude bam sat gia gao eiia Thai Lan. Nhung nam dau thap ky 1990, gia gao cua Viet Nam thudng thap hon gao Thai Lan khoang 100 USD/tan thi den eudi thap ky chi eon 40-50 USD/tan, va hien nay ehenh lech khoang 20-30 USD/tan. Vi du: vao thang 5/2005, trung binh gia gao cua Thai Lan la 291 USD/tan ddi vdi gao 5% tam va 282 USD/tan ddi vdi gao 25% tam, thi gia gao eiing loai ciia Viet Nam tuong ling dat 263 USD/tan va 252 USD/tan. Tham chi, cd loai gao thorn Viet Nam da ban duge vdi gia 360-380 USD/tan, khdng thua kem gao Con Lai, Con Phung cia Thai Lan (nam 2004 Viet Nam da xuat khau duge 100 nghin tan gao nay).

Thutba, thi trudng gao Viet Nam ngay cang dwac mdrong

Viet Nam chi thuc su la nhiing xuat khau gao tir nam 1989. Viec xam nhap thi trudng, "chen ehan" vao thi trudng cua cac nude xuat khau gao truyen thdng trong thdi ky nay la vd ciing khd khan. Vay nhung, chi sau 2 nam gao Viet Nam da duge xuat khau sang thi trudng 20 nude, chiem 8,1% tong lugng gao ban budn tren thi trudng the gidi.

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Den nam 1994, sau 5 nam xuat khiu, gao Viet Nam da cd mat tai thi trudng 50 nude, va hien nay la tren 80 nude eiia ea 5 chau lue, trong do chau A va chau Phi la hai khu vuc chiem ty trgng Idn nha't. Nam 2003, thi trudng chau A chiem den 59% san lugng gao xuat khau cua Viet Nam, tiep den la chau Phi 20%, Trung Dong 9%, chau My 8% va chau Au 4%... Gao Viet Nam cung da chiem ITnh duge ea mot so thi trudng khd tinh nhu EU, Bac My va Nhat Ban.

Cling vdi md rgng thi trudng xuat khau, thi phan gao Viet Nam cQng da tang tir 8,1% nam 1991 len 14,8 nam 1998 va 16% nam 2004.

ThiJ'tu', xuat khau gao con thieu tinh ben vung

Xua't khau gao duac coi la the manh cua Viet Nam, nhung thuc chat the manh dd mdi chi duge tao ra bdi Igi the tu nhien - Igi the "tinh". Lgi the nay dang ngay cang giam dan, trong khi dd cac Igi the "dgng" - yeu to quyet dinh eiia su phat trien nhanh va ben vung lai mdi chi duge khai thae rat han che. Vi vay, mac dii Viet Nam ludn diing hang thu" hai, thii ba the gidi ve xuat khau gao nhung vln bi "lep ve" trude gao cac nude, gia tri kim ngach thap, tham chi cd nhirng nam xuat khau cang nhieu cang Id Idn. Cu the la, tdc do tang gia tri kim ngach khdng tuong ling vdi tdc do tang san lugng xuat khau, tham ehi con bi giam. Vi du: so vdi nam trude, nam 1997 san lugng gao xuat khau tang 19%, nhung kim ngach chi tang 1,8%; nam 1999 san lugng tang 20,8%, kim ngach tang 0,1%; nam 2003 san lugng tang 20%, kim ngach tang 1,1%, va dae biet nam 2001 san lugng tang 7,2% nhung kim ngach lai giam den 7,9%...

Cd the tha'y ro hon thuc trang bien dgng ciia san lugng, gia ea va kim ngach xuat khau gao Viet Nam 1989-2005 qua bang so lieu sau:

Nam

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

San luong (1000 tan)

1.450

1.624

1.033

1.946

1.722

1.983

Gia binh quan (USD/tan)

204

186

227

215

210

214

Gia tri kim ngach (trieu USD)

290

374

234

418

362

424

81

Nam

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5 thang 2005

San luong

(1000 tan)

1.988

3.003

3.575

3.730

4.508

3.476

3.729

3.240

3.890

4.020

2.250

Gia binh quan

(USD/tan)

267

285

243

275

227

192

1695

224

188

219

241

Gia tri kim ngach

(trieu USD)

530

855

870

1.024

1.025

672

619

726

734

941

621

Nguon: Tap chi Kinh te va Du bao, so 4/2004 (372)

Tinh trang dd cd nguyen nhan khach quan tir su bien dgng eiia cung - cau va gia ca gao tren thi trudng the gidi, nhung chii yeu van la do nhieu nguyen nhan chii quan, nhu: pham cap gao thap, chiing loai thieu da dang, trinh do edng nghe che bien lac hau, va dae biet la chua cd thuong hieu...

2. Giai phap chu yeu day manh xuat khau gao trong thdi gian tdi

+ Phdt trien cong nghe sau thu hoqch

O Viet Nam hien nay, tac dgng cua cdng nghe sau thu hoach den xuat khau gao con rat md nhat, tham chi ca trong viec hoach dinh chien luge phat trien cdng nghe nay cQng chua duge quan tam dung miie. Vi vay ty le gao bi hao hut cao, chat lugng khdng ddng deu, gia ea tha'p. Theo phan tieh eiia Vu xua't nhap khau (Bd Thuong mai), ty le ton that sau thu hoach cao cung nhu viec thieu mot nganh edng nghiep che bien sau gao phat trien la nguyen nhan chinh khien cho nang lue canh tranh cua hat gao Viet Nam tha'p. Trong khi d Thai Lan, ty le ton tha't sau thu hoach ehi khoang 7-10% va ty le gao phim cap cao chiem 70%, thi d Viet Nam cac sd lieu tuong ling la 13-16% va 55%; trong khi d Thai Lan cac khau trude va sau thu hoach duoc

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chudn bi, trien khai ra't ddng bd va hien dai, thi d Viet Nam thde thudng duge phai tren san da't, be tong hay tren dudng nhua dan den do ran, gay ra't cao (30-40%) va ty le san, eat vugt qua miic cho phep. Nguyen nhan la do 80% lugng thde d nude ta duge xay xat va che bien tai cac co sd nhd va cac hd ndng dan, khdng duge trang bi ddng bd ve phoi sa'y va kho chiJa.

Tir dd cho tha'y, de tang san lugng va kim ngach xuat khau gao, nha't thiet phai trang bi ddng bd edng nghe sau thu hoach, bao gdm tir khau phoi say, phan loai, bao quan den so che, che bien, bao bi va ddng gdi. Duong nhien, can phai ehii y diing miic den ca eae yeu thu trude thu hoach nhu: gidng, phan bdn, each thiie cham sdc, viec sii dung thude bao ve thuc vat..., bdi cac khau nay cd vai tro gan nhu quyet dinh ddi vdi cae khau khae. Hon the, neu chat lugng san pham tot, an toan, tieu chuan thi viec che bien va bao quan eiing se thuan lgi han.

-I- Phdt trien thi trudng cd chieu rgng lan chieu sau

Thi trudng the gidi dang cd nhung bien ddng cd lgi cho mot sd nganh hang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam, trong dd cd mat hang gao. Theo du bao ciia FAO, nhu cau gao ciia the gidi dang cd xu hudng tang cao nhung do han han va thien tai xay ra tai nhieu nude nen san lugng giao dich thuong mai du kien se giam khoang 117 nghin tan so vdi nam 2004. Mat khae, do gia gao ciia Viet Nam tha'p hon gia gao Thai Lan nen se cd them mot sd khach hang tii Iran, Philippin... se ehuyen qua dam phan mua gao eiia Viet Nam. Dd la nhiing co hoi Idn, ma neu cae doanh nghiep che bien xuat khau gao nSm bat duge se cd dieu kien tang nhanh kim ngach xuat khau.

Tuy nhien, su bien ddng cung-cau ve gao cua thi trudng the gidi khdng phai liie nao cung Aitn ra theo mot chieu cd lgi cho ta, ma no diln bien tha't thudng do tac dgng cua dieu kien khi hau, thdi tiet, gia vat tu nguyen lieu, va cac nhan to khae. Vi vay, viec giii vilng duge thi trudng hien cd va tiep can them cac thi trudng mdi la het siic can thiet, nham dam bao on dinh san lugng gao xuat khau.

Mot khd khan mdi ciia cac doanh nghiep xua't khau gao hien nay

la mdt sd nude nhap khiu Idn ciia Viet Nam tai chau A nhu Malaysia,

Indonesia, Philippin dang cd xu hudng giam nhap khau gao (nam

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1995, thi trudng chau A chiem den 65% lugng gao xuat khau cua Vi6t Nam, nhung den nam 2003 ehi con 59%). Trong dieu kien dd, mudn giiJ virng cae thi trudng nay ddi hoi cae doanh nghiep phai nang cao chat lugng va chiing loai gao, nha't la cac loai gao dae san cd huong vi dae trung va ham lugng dinh dudng cao.

De phat trien thi trudng mdt each ben viJng, nhat thiet cac doanh nghiep phai nam bat duge eac thdng tin thi trudng mdt each day du va kip thdi, ddng thdi phai du bao duge san lugng va chat lugng liia hang hda d trong dan de tranh duge cac riii ro cd the xay ra. Chang han nhu, nhiing ngay dau thang 5/2005, khi gia gao cd hien tugng chung lai, vi sg gia con xudng thap niJa nen cac doanh nghiep da vdi vang di ky cac hgp ddng mdi. Chinh hanh ddng dd cua ho da vd tinh keo gia gao tut ddc them.

Ben canh viec tang san lugng, md rgng thi trudng, eac doanh nghiep Viet Nam can phai ddi mdi hon nira phuong thiie xua't khau, ehuyen tu xua't khau qua trung gian sang xuat khau true tiep. Hien nay, tuy gao Viet Nam da xuat khau sang thi trudng 80 nhung song sd lugng gao budn ban qua trung gian con chiem ty le cao (trung binh khoang 65%. Dae biet, thi trudng chau Phi - noi tieu thu khdi lugng Idn gao Viet Nam thi phan Idn deu do cae trung gian nude ngoai dijmg ra thuc hien. Viec xuat kh£u qua trung gian nhu vay da lam cho gao Viet Nam ludn bi ep ban vdi gia thap hon thure te, dieu dd da lam giam dang ke gia tri kim ngach. Vi vay, viec nhanh ehdng giam bdt va dan di den cham dut tinh trang xuat kh^u qua trung gian cung la bien phap hihi hieu de tang kim ngach xua't khau gao.

+ Nhanh ehdng xdy dung thucfng hieu cho sdn phdm gqo

Lgi the eiia gao cd thuong hieu la cac doanh nghiep cd the dinh gia cao hon ma ngudi tieu diing vln chap nhan mua. Sd dl gao Thai Lan ludn ban duge vdi gia cao hon gao Viet Nam cung la nhd cd thuong hieu. Hien nay Viet Nam da cd nhieu loai gao cha't lugng khdng kem gao cae nude, nhu: gao Nang Huong, Hoa Hong, Hoa Su:, Sohafarm (eiia Ndng trudng Sdng Hau), gao Tam Xoan Hai Hau, gao thorn An Giang va Long An... Nhung dang tide la eac loai gao dd eon It d\iqc thi trudng the gidi biet den vi chua cd ten tudi. Nhieu doanh nghiep da phai "mugn danh" thuong hieu cua nude ngoai de dua gao

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Viet Nam den vdi ban hang qude te. Viec lam dd khdng chi lam giam gia tri kim ngach, ma con dSn den nguy eo bi mat mat hang truyen thdng nay. Tit thuc te dd, va'n de xay dung thuong hieu cho hat gao Viet Nam trd thanh va'n de cap bach hon bao gid het.

De xay dung duge thuong hieu cho hat gao, can:

- Nang cao cha't lugng gao tren co sd phat trien edng nghe hat gidng va edng nghe sau thu hoach. Chat lugng gao la yeu td quan trgng, cd tinh quyet dinh den cac yeu td khae, la tieu chuan dau tien de ngudi tieu diing dua ra quyet dinh lua chgn eiia minh. Mudn tao duge gao cha't lugng cao, trude Jiet phai dau tu phat trien edng nghe gidng nham tao ra cac loai gidng liia mdi cd mui thorn, hat trang va dai, cd ham lugng protein cao. Ddng thdi, phai hien dai hda cdng nghe xay xat (cd may phan hat theo kieh cd), edng nghe danh bong va chgn mau de tao hat gao cd kich thude ddng deu, dam bao do am, do bdng va ty le hat gay theo tieu chuan cho phep.

- Phai dam bao su cd mat thudng xuyen ciia san pham gao tren thi trudng the gidi. Mdt trong nhung han che Idn cua xuat khau gao hien nay la mang tinh chat timg ehuyen, tung dgt phu thude vao thdi vu thu hoach. Dieu dd anh hudng rat Idn den viec xay dung thuong hieu, bdi ngudi tieu diing chua kip lam quen vdi san pham thi nd da khdng eon tren thi trudng. Cd the khae phue han che nay bang each tang cudng dau tu xay dung he thdng cae kho du trir. He thdng kho nay se cho phep cac nha xua't khau vua cd hang dua ra thi trudng quanh nam, vira giam thieu duge tinh trang "duge miia rdt gia", gay nhieu thiet ha cho xua't khau gao nhu hien nay.

- Phat trien viing nguyen lieu ehuyen canh de tao san pham thuan nha't. Dae diem cua san xua't liia gao la san pham rat d& bi pha tap, nhanh bi thoai hda. Sd di nhu vay, mdt mat la vi gidng liia duge sir dung nhieu lan trong nam n6n mdi lan diing liia thu hoach de lam gidng thi gidng lai bi thoai hda them mdt it; va mat khae, viec gieo ca'y Ilia tren nhCrng thira rugng gan nhau, xen nhau nen chi can mdt eon gid nhd cung tao nen su lai tap giira cae gidng liia dd. Dae diem nay ddi hoi phai xay dung viing nguyen lieu liia rieng cho xuat khau, nham tao san pham gao cd cha't lugng tdt, dam bao tieu chuan qude te, nhd dd ma tang nhanh san lugng va kim ngach.

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Tai lieu tham khao

1. Bd NN va PTNT: Tinh hinh hoi nhdp trong iTnh vUc thuong mqi hang ndng sdn. Ha Ndi, 2002.

2. PGS.TS Nguy6n Sinh Cue: Ndng cao site eqnh tranh cua ndng sdn xudt khdu Viet Nam trong thdi ky hoi nhap kinh te the'gidi, trong Ky yeu hoi thdo khoa hoc Viet Nam: NhUng thdeh thife trong tieh trinh hoi nhdp kinh te qude te, do Khoa Kinh te, Dai hoe Qude gia td ehiic, thang 11/2004.

3. Vu Hiing Phuong: Xudt khdu gqo cua Viet Nam: thuc trqng vd gidi phdp, Tap chi Kinh te'vd Du bdo, sd 4/2004 (372).

4. http://www.cpv.org.vn.

5. http:://www.vneconomy.eom.vn.

6. http:://www.agroviet.gov.vn.

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