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Longitudinal Weights for the Production of Transitions and Flow Estimates

Katrin BaumgartnerAngelika Meraner

Alexander KowarikStatistics Austria

Rome16 May 2014 9th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology

www.statistik.at slide 2 | April 18, 2023

Introduction

• Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS

• Bias Analysis

• Imputation

• Weighting

• Summary


Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS

• Is not in focus so far

• Depends on the survey design

• Only available for a subset of LFS sample

• Every quarter: exchange of 1/5 of the survey

• Household stays 5 consecutive quarters in the survey


Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS

q(t) q(t+1) q(t+2) q(t+3) q(t+4)

lossr1r2 r2r3 r3 r3r4 r4 r4 r4r5 r5 r5 r5 r5

r6 r6 r6 r6r7 r7 r7

r8 r8r9

gain

• Cross sectional point of view: quarter consists of 5 waves (rotation numbers)

• Longitudinal point of view: a rotation number appears in 5 quarters

• Q-Q-Changes: approximately 4/5 of the LFS sample can be used• Y-Y-Changes: approximately 1/5 of the LFS sample can be used


Longitudinal Analysis

Can be based on different subsamples:

•One removes all incomplete cases for the flow analysis, i.e. flows are based on the subsample of persons who are successfully surveyed in both quarters, q(t) and q(t+1) (immobile persons).

•All persons who are successfully surveyed in one quarter, q(t) or q(t+1) and do not regularly rotate in or out, are used (mobile + immobile persons). Potentially missing information of the second q(t+1) and first quarter q(t) respectively is imputed.


Bias Analysis

Are there any differences between mobile and immobile persons in their sociodemographic structure?

•Linking to administrative data from Central Population Register

•Information of mobile persons is only available for one quarter: first q(t) or second q(t+1).


Bias Analysis (Q1 2012)

Demographic Characteristics

in %

Mobile Immobile Total

Age15-34 40.5 31.8 32.435-64 59.5 68.2 67.6

Sex Male 52.0 49.5 49.7

Female 48.0 50.5 50.3Nationality

AT 83.2 90.5 89.9Non-AT 16.8 9.5 10.1

Total (in 1 000) 1,759 21,766 23,525S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). – Persons with administrative identifier (bPK).



Demographic Characteristics

in %

Mobile Outflux Influx

Age15-34 40.5 45.1 34.535-64 59.5 54.9 65.5

SexMale 52.0 52.4 51.3

Female 48.0 47.6 48.7Nationality

AT 83.2 82.8 83.7N-AT 16.8 17.2 16.3

Total (in 1000) 1,759 1,005 754S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). - Persons with administrative identifier (bPK).



S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). Register labour status for mobile and immobile persons with administrative identifier (bPK).


Bias Analysis – Flows (Q4 2011 + Q1 2012)

S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012– Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). Register labour status for mobile and immobile persons with administrative identifier (bPK).


Imputation

Proportions of imputed missing values for longitudinal data sets:

Longitudinal DataImputed missing values in %

Q4 2011 & Q1 2012Q4 2011 3.9Q1 2012 4.4

Q1 2012 & Q2 2012Q1 2012 3.9Q2 2012 4.5

Q2 2012 & Q3 2012Q2 2012 3.2Q3 2012 4.5

Q3 2012 & Q4 2012Q3 2012 3.4Q4 2012 3.8

Q4 2011 & Q4 2012Q4 2011 7.6Q4 2012 9.6


Imputation

Random hot deck imputation of important labour market characteristics

Selection of domain variables (max. 7)

Based on bias analysis • Gender, age, nationality • Administrative labour status (if available)

of both quarters/years• ILO labour status of `complementary´

quarter/year (if administrative labour status not available)

Longitudinal concept Currently imputed variable pertaining to `complementary´ quarter/year

Multinomial logit model (forward selection)

7th (last) domain variable for cases with no administrative labour status


Weighting: Longitudinal Weights


Weighting: Longitudinal Weights

Two versions of weights:

1. Reducing the bias: not calibrating against the ILO labour market status

2. Providing consistency between stocks and flows: additionally calibrating against the ILO labour market status (LMS adj)

Key figures for ILO labour market status stem from published quarterly results of the microcensus -> projected data


Weights 1: Reducing the bias

Base weights calibrated against marginal totals for q(t) and q(t+1) consecutively

1.Population by NUTS-2 region, sex and age

2.Population by NUTS-2 region and nationality

3.Weights corresponding to people born, deceased, immigrated or emigrated in q(t) are calibrated against the natural population change and the migration statistics


Weights 2: Consistency of stocks and flows

Base weights calibrated against marginal totals for q(t) and q(t+1) consecutively

1.Population by NUTS-2 region, sex and age

2.Population by NUTS-2 region and nationality

3.Population by nationality, sex, age and ILO labour status

4.Weights corresponding to people born, deceased, immigrated or emigrated in q(t) are calibrated against the natural population change and the migration statistics


Comparison

Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for cross-sectional data Q4 2011 of population living in private households aged 15-64 without persons doing their military or civilian service according to ILO labour status.


Comparison

Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for flows corresponding to longitudinal data comprising Q4 2011 and Q4 2012, i.e. the population living in private households at both time points, aged 15-64 and not doing their military or civilian service according to ILO labour status.


Summary

• Obvious differences between immobile and mobile persons for demographic characteristics and administrative labour status

• Random hot deck imputation of missing data

Longitudinal concept incorporated Use of administrative labour status

• Weighting option 1 preferred

Bias reducing Not adjusted to ILO Labour Market Status -> not providing

consistency between stocks and flows


Please address queries to:Katrin Baumgartner

Angelika MeranerAlexander Kowarik

Contact information:Guglgasse 13, 1110 Viennaphone: +43 (1) 71128-7211

[email protected]

Thank you very much for your attention

www.statistik.atwe provide information longitudinal weights for the production of transitions and...

Documents

lfs sample

bias analysis q1

longitudinal analysis

survey slide

quarter qt

mobile immobile persons

subset of lfs

information of mobile