1 slide 1. introduction panel today – promoting the qatar story. carson wolfer, head of investor...
TRANSCRIPT
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Slide 1. Introduction
• Panel today – promoting the Qatar story.
Carson Wolfer, Head of Investor Relations, Qtel International
Hugh Barker, Senior Vice President, Financial Dynamics
Christiaan de Beer, Group CFO, Al Khaliji
Samer Solh, Managing Director, Asset ManagementAmwal
Colin Milton, Deputy Director of Listing Qatar Exchange
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Slide 2. ‘Equity Story’ – Setting the Context
• Designed to effectively present the merits of an investment in the company. Critical tool for marketing a company, stimulating interest/demand and for translating interest into share value.
Clarity of strategy and future plans from
management
Development of in-depth understanding of issuers operations and business strategy
Full appreciation of potential drivers of investor appetite
Ability to create ‘equity story’
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Slide 3. ‘Equity Story’ – Setting the Context
• The characteristics represent the “established case”.
Leading market position
High barriers to entryStrong
shareholder/sponsor group
Typical ‘equity story’
Brand strength Track record Quality management team
Above market growth prospects
Scalable business Robust financial model
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Slide 4a. ‘Equity Story’ – Qatar• Issuers will naturally leverage on the macro story. It provides the backdrop to the business.
• Qatar owns the world’s third largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran. • Energy revenues continue to underpin GDP growth rates (the IMF expects Qatar to be the world’s
fastest growing economy in 2011) and double digit population growth. • Qatar invests a substantial proportion of energy revenues in improving the country’s infrastructure
and diversifying its economic base. • The extent of Qatar’s outperformance is clear. The real GDP growth rates underpin attractive
micro investment opportunities.
Real GDP)%(
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(F)
Qatar 18.6 26.8 25.4 8.6 16.0 18.6
Saudi Arabia
3.2 2.0 4.2 0.6 3.4 4.5
Kuwait 5.3 4.5 5.5 )4.8( 2.3 4.4
UAE 8.7 6.1 5.1 )2.5( 2.4 3.2
Bahrain 6.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 4.0 4.5
Oman 5.5 6.8 12.8 3.6 4.7 4.7
Source: IMF
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Slide 4b. ‘Equity Story’ – Qatar
• What other factors are worth considering?
Population growth 21.3% 2004-2010
Young population )46% between 25-39(
Diversifying economy )non oil and gas over
50%(
Qatar
Deflationary environment
Spending focused on small local population
?
QR 112 billion budgeted for projects
2010-2014
US$ 170 billion infrastructure in next
10 years
Strong and liquid banking sector
Highest sovereign rating in GCC
Real GDP growth 17.4% 2005-2009
Forecast nominal GDP growth 20% plus
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Slide 5a. ‘Equity Story’ – Telco Example 1
• The following reflect analysts view on key investment themes.
Reasons To Buy
….. superior network coverage and aggressive marketing skills have fostered continued operational growth.
In the wireless business, the company continues to be the market leader.
To support its 4G services, ….. announced significant new product launches.
Focus on gaining market share through deployment of service offerings will lead to improved revenue, operating income and help gain market share. ….. has significantly improved its competitive position.
….. continues to focus on maximising free cash flow, maintaining a strong balance sheet and reducing debt.
Reasons To Sell
….. local phone business contracting due to competitive pressure…… impacting revenue and margins.
Largest competitor….. threatens customer retention initiative across all the company’s segments.
Heavy investment in infrastructure.
……. businesses are subject to regulation and regulatory risk.
….. long term technology poses a major risk if it does not become a global standard.
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Slide 5b. ‘Equity Story’ – Financial Services Example 1
• The following reflect analysts view on key investment themes.
Reasons To Buy
Well justified reputation as a growth stock among the large cap banks with cross selling its strength.
Credit quality continued to improve.
….. growth plans have historically included a large number of acquisitions and company has demonstrated an ability to build local franchises.
…..focuses on innovation, launching products and services that create win-win situations.
Significant potential for increased growth prospects and above average profitability in the long term.
Reasons To Sell
Higher than normal costs.
Significant expansion in lower margin business areas may hamper P/E expansion.
Regulatory risk.
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Slide 6. ‘Equity Story’ – Communication (Who?)
• The audience for the equity story is multi-faceted.
Institutional Investors
Typical audience
Domestic financial institutions
Private Investors Analysts Media
Overseas financial institutions
Pension funds and hedge funds
Insurance and life assurance companies
Retail and HNW
Financial advisors
Employees
Sell-side
Buy-side
Company sponsored
Broadcast
On-line
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Slide 7. ‘Equity Story’ – ‘Blind’ Example 1
• Bring together the macro, micro and industry favourites.
Reasons To Buy
Dominant position in the ….. market.
Taking steps to build position in ….. space.
…. business is a major beneficiary of replacement cycle.
One of the three largest suppliers of ….
…. [product] taking market share.
Active on the mergers and acquisitions front.
Management execution.
Reasons To Sell
Softness in core….. market.
Growing popularity of competing products.
As a dominant provider any new player results in market erosion.
New product areas have not been too successful.
….. is also seeing increasing competition from all quarters.
Small player in ….. market a key growth area for competitors.
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Slide 8. ‘Equity Story’ – ‘Blind’ Example 2
• Bring together the macro, micro and industry favourites.
Reasons To Buy
….. is the industry leader by a stretch.
In an effort to achieve long term sales target….. plans to aggressively expand operations in emerging markets.
During quarter under review, company revenue grew 7%.
Company has strong balance sheet.
Reasons To Sell
Customers remain sensitive to macroeconomic factors ….. which may impact discretionary spending and in turn company’s growth and profitability.
….. faces intense competition in both domestic and international markets from local players as well as established competitors.
Company is exposed to political, social and economic risks.
Due to its exposure to international markets ….. remains prone to currency fluctuation.
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Slide 9. ‘Equity Story’ – ‘Blind’ Example 3
• Bring together the macro, micro and industry favourites.
Reasons To Buy
….. focuses on innovation, launching products and services that create win-win situations.
Company’s history of execution is unparalleled. Over the past five years revenue has grown at CAGR of 22.3%.
Company’s [product] is advanced, simple and adaptable. This is the main reason for ….. leading market share.
Management continues to invest in new technologies.
….. has been making a large number of acquisitions …. with specific [products] that enhance the customer experience.
Reasons To Sell
….. remains the leader in ….. However, recent statistics show that the company’s market share is see-sawing.
Growth of [competing product] could result in revenue loss.
Although management doesn’t seem to think so, the emergence of [product] could be cannibalistic.
Lack of diversification in …… revenues.
….. has locked horns with the …… government. Political risk.
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Slide 10. Final Thoughts
• Some quotes to take away re the equity story.
“The secret of getting your message across to fund managers is to keep it simple.”
“The better a fund manager understands your business the more support your company is likely to have in the market.”
“We like companies which under promise and over deliver.”
AND
“Essentially, as investors we are backing the management team and their ability to deliver their strategy and provide returns for their investors.”