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Peak oil and transport planning
Transport Planning Society
Inst. Of Chartered Engineers
22nd April 2009
David Strahan
www.odac-info.org
Crisis? What crisis?
Source: Argus Media
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Why they call it peak oil
Source: ASPO
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Why oil peaks
Source: IHS Energy
United States
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Kenneth Deffeyes 2005Colin Campbell 2010Chris Skrebowski 2011Energyfiles 2016PFC Energy 2020IEA 2030+CERA 2030+United States 2037
When will it happen?
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● Oil supplies 95% transport energy
● Agriculture critically dependent on oil and gas: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy.
● Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants
● Oil price spikes cause recessions
Why it matters
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Oil producers (98)
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Post peak oil producers (64)
www.odac-info.orgSource: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell
Couldn’t we find some more?
www.odac-info.orgSource: IEA, Argus Media
Are we there yet?
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Serial oil price spikes and slumps
www.odac-info.orgSource: John Hall Associates
Oil drives energy prices
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● ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA)
● ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan)
Biofuels inadequate
www.odac-info.orgSource: BMW
Hydrogen
lastoilshock.comSources: WWF and E4Tech
BEV: 69% efficient WTW
FCV: 24% efficient WTW
UK BEV fleet means +16% electricity
UK FCV fleet means +34% electricity
Fuel cells vs batteries
lastoilshock.comSource: John Hall Associates
OECD grid mix by fuel
lastoilshock.com
HVDC-System
Source: Dr Gregor Czisch, University of Kassel
100% renewables via ‘Supergrid’
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Small vehicles – electrification
www.odac-info.orgSources: NSCA, DfT
Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006)
Public transport consumes <5%
Large vehicles – biogas
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Lille: biogas in action
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• Carbon reductions 75% - 200%
• Energy security
• Low duty (10p/L v 50p/L diesel)
• Waste strategy
• Digestate/fertilizer
• Flexibility – bi-fuel vehicles
• Air quality/noise
Biomethane benefits
lastoilshock.com
Mass aviation under threat
Source: New Scientist
lastoilshock.com
“This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess
“…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell
“This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP
“A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes
www.odac-info.org
Peak oil and transport planning
Transport Planning Society
Inst. Of Chartered Engineers
22nd April 2009
David Strahan